Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 2nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2017-05-02 16:18:43

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	Team	Opp	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%
Taijuan Walker	ARI	WAS	164	4.17	3.96	1.22	36.00%	21.8%	6.3%	1.65	44.0%
Mat Latos	TOR	NYY	81	4.67	5.53	1.48	33.33%	13.2%	10.4%	1.33	43.2%
Corey Kluber	CLE	DET	249.1	3.28	3.52	1.08	56.25%	26.4%	6.9%	1.01	43.6%
Alec Asher	BAL	BOS	36	2.25	4.98	0.92	40.00%	13.2%	4.9%	0.25	35.2%
Alex Cobb	TBR	MIA	51	6.35	4.24	1.63	20.00%	16.1%	5.7%	1.76	50.6%
Tyler Glasnow	PIT	CIN	38	5.68	4.76	1.87		21.7%	13.8%	0.71	47.0%
Matt Harvey	NYM	ATL	122.1	4.71	4.41	1.39	35.29%	18.0%	6.7%	1.03	42.7%
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	CHC	219	3.45	4.28	1.11	40.63%	18.6%	5.4%	1.07	39.5%
Sonny Gray	OAK	MIN	117	5.69	4.32	1.5	27.27%	18.2%	8.1%	1.38	53.9%
Cole Hamels	TEX	HOU	233.1	3.28	4.16	1.28	56.25%	22.0%	9.1%	1.08	49.2%
Jose Quintana	CHW	KCR	237.1	3.45	4.04	1.2	62.50%	21.8%	6.6%	1.02	40.1%
Wily Peralta	MIL	STL	153.2	4.92	4.57	1.52	30.43%	16.9%	8.1%	1.46	48.7%
Tyler Chatwood	COL	SDP	189.1	4.04	4.56	1.37	44.44%	17.4%	10.2%	1.05	56.8%
Matt Shoemaker	LAA	SEA	186.2	4	3.91	1.24	51.85%	21.5%	5.3%	1.16	40.7%
Matt Moore	SFG	LAD	228.1	4.18	4.37	1.3	45.45%	20.9%	8.4%	1.22	39.5%
Tanner Roark	WAS	ARI	239.2	2.93	4.32	1.17	54.55%	19.7%	8.4%	0.71	48.8%
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	TOR	229.2	3.21	3.85	1.1	58.06%	20.1%	4.9%	0.98	49.2%
Justin Verlander	DET	CLE	257	3.22	3.51	1.05	64.71%	27.6%	6.8%	1.16	33.4%
Chris Sale	BOS	BAL	264.1	3.03	3.24	1	53.13%	27.3%	4.9%	0.95	41.2%
Edinson Volquez	MIA	TBR	213.2	5.27	4.73	1.56	35.29%	16.8%	9.4%	1.10	50.1%
Scott Feldman	CIN	PIT	104.2	3.78	4.22	1.37	20.00%	17.7%	7.1%	1.12	46.5%
R.A. Dickey	ATL	NYM	193.1	4.38	4.79	1.37	31.03%	17.1%	8.7%	1.49	43.3%
Jon Lester	CHC	PHI	232	2.6	3.64	1.07	71.88%	24.2%	6.6%	0.93	48.2%
Ervin Santana	MIN	OAK	216.1	2.95	4.28	1.13	46.67%	20.1%	7.2%	0.87	42.4%
Mike Fiers	HOU	TEX	188	4.55	4.28	1.38	36.67%	18.5%	6.2%	1.63	43.0%
Danny Duffy	KCR	CHW	211.2	3.4	3.69	1.15	46.15%	24.7%	6.3%	1.23	36.9%
Carlos Martinez	STL	MIL	224	3.25	3.91	1.25	51.61%	22.7%	8.9%	0.76	55.3%
Trevor Cahill	SDP	COL	89.2	3.21	3.75	1.29		24.8%	11.9%	0.90	57.6%
James Paxton	SEA	LAA	153.1	3.29	3.39	1.21	45.00%	24.6%	4.7%	0.53	46.4%
Alex Wood	LAD	SFG	80	3.38	3.52	1.19	50.00%	25.4%	8.4%	0.68	55.2%

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Chris Sale BOS (vs. BAL, $12,500) – The Orioles have a lineup full of pop, but the O’s are vulnerable to lefties given their plethora of right-handed batters that have reversed platoon splits for their career (Machado, Jones, Schoop), with each player sacrificing a chunk of power when facing southpaws. Of greater importance is Sale himself,who is steamrolling strikeouts with 52 Ks in 37.2 innings this season, including double-digit whiffs in four consecutive starts. He has tossed 7.0 or more innings in all five of his turns this season and has yet to give up more than two earned runs in a start. The lowest score for any one start for Sale this season is 27.35 points, which would still represent a profit on his $12500 salary.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (at DET, $11,600) – Kluber was on par with Chris Sale entering the season, but with Sale starting 2017 on a tear and Kluber having some ups and downs in the early going, combined with his facing a tougher opponent (when platoon splits are considered), conspires to make Kluber a lesser value even with the $900 discount. By comparison, Kluber edged his way to double-digit Ks in his last start with a 10-strikeout effort against Houston, a game that also included a season-high four walks. Kluber has cleared six frames in every start but has only finished the sixth in two of them, has given up at least six hits and three runs in four of his five turns, and has surrendered six home runs already this season. None of these details is a harbinger, but Kluber is facing a Detroit offense that hung six earned runs around his neck when they met on April 15.

James Paxton SEA (vs. LAA, $9,200) – After spinning 21.0 scoreless innings to start the year, Paxton was put in his place by the A’s two starts ago, as Oakland scored five runs on nine hits in 4.1 frames. Paxton rebounded with a start that looked eerily similar to his first three lines of the year, with seven scoreless innings against the Tigers in Detroit. Paxton has struck out eight or nine batters in his last four consecutive starts, and he has posted a ridiculous 39:6 K:BB for the season, with just 21 hits allowed in 32.1 innings. The Mariners have given Paxton the green light to drive past 100 pitches in all four of his effective starts, and he cleared 90 throws and registered eight Ks even in his disaster in Oakland.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. PHI, $10,600) – Lester barely makes the cut for Raise status, despite a reasonable price tag and a non-threatening opponent, as a result of back-to-back starts that featured a total of 11 runs (10 earned) and 19 hits over 11.1 innings, including the first three homers that he has surrendered this season. Piling on, Lester has struck out a modest 12 batters over his last three starts combined, covering 18.1 innings. I expect a bounceback of sorts, but his recent struggles give me pause, especially in the DFS world where strikeouts reign supreme. Lester has earned a long leash, and the Cubs have let him clear the 100-pitch mark in five of his starts this season.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	Team	Opp	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	SIERA	BABIP	FIP
Taijuan Walker	ARI	WAS	0.312	4.59	0.331	3.73	0.242	3.96	0.273	4.64
Mat Latos	TOR	NYY	0.323	4.54	0.35	4.79	0.261	5.53	0.274	5.34
Corey Kluber	CLE	DET	0.291	3.09	0.273	3.46	0.217	3.52	0.273	3.39
Alec Asher	BAL	BOS	0.242	2.25	0.244	2.25	0.197	4.98	0.223	3.42
Alex Cobb	TBR	MIA	0.479	9.61	0.311	4.31	0.323	4.24	0.353	4.94
Tyler Glasnow	PIT	CIN	0.369	5.17	0.378	6.04	0.285	4.76	0.368	4.41
Matt Harvey	NYM	ATL	0.343	4.86	0.318	4.55	0.278	4.41	0.32	3.97
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	CHC	0.306	3.19	0.283	3.66	0.233	4.28	0.263	3.93
Sonny Gray	OAK	MIN	0.325	5.76	0.372	5.62	0.281	4.32	0.319	4.67
Cole Hamels	TEX	HOU	0.258	2.72	0.317	3.42	0.239	4.16	0.287	4.14
Jose Quintana	CHW	KCR	0.29	3.04	0.31	3.57	0.246	4.04	0.294	3.7
Wily Peralta	MIL	STL	0.382	4.56	0.353	5.24	0.296	4.57	0.329	4.9
Tyler Chatwood	COL	SDP	0.323	4.36	0.322	3.7	0.25	4.56	0.284	4.53
Matt Shoemaker	LAA	SEA	0.312	4.43	0.32	3.49	0.26	3.91	0.308	3.8
Matt Moore	SFG	LAD	0.307	5.05	0.312	3.92	0.245	4.37	0.285	4.27
Tanner Roark	WAS	ARI	0.287	2.35	0.275	3.43	0.226	4.32	0.269	3.77
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	TOR	0.28	2.96	0.286	3.45	0.235	3.85	0.272	3.58
Justin Verlander	DET	CLE	0.274	3.43	0.28	3.01	0.209	3.51	0.262	3.5
Chris Sale	BOS	BAL	0.243	2.9	0.275	3.05	0.218	3.24	0.279	3.13
Edinson Volquez	MIA	TBR	0.352	5.34	0.338	5.19	0.282	4.73	0.322	4.56
Scott Feldman	CIN	PIT	0.359	3.38	0.309	4.04	0.267	4.22	0.303	4.2
R.A. Dickey	ATL	NYM	0.336	4.3	0.339	4.43	0.257	4.79	0.279	5.04
Jon Lester	CHC	PHI	0.234	2.17	0.286	2.73	0.219	3.64	0.269	3.43
Ervin Santana	MIN	OAK	0.273	2.63	0.284	3.28	0.225	4.28	0.263	3.7
Mike Fiers	HOU	TEX	0.332	4.23	0.365	4.83	0.279	4.28	0.309	4.8
Danny Duffy	KCR	CHW	0.225	1.69	0.32	3.77	0.238	3.69	0.29	3.8
Carlos Martinez	STL	MIL	0.323	4	0.255	2.47	0.234	3.91	0.291	3.63
Trevor Cahill	SDP	COL	0.282	2.43	0.282	3.76	0.209	3.75	0.265	4.02
James Paxton	SEA	LAA	0.289	1.9	0.284	3.54	0.257		0.333	2.45
Alex Wood	LAD	SFG		6.53	0.262	2.28	0.22		0.286	3.13

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. CLE, $10,400) – Verlander was coming off a pair of absolutely horrific outings when he took the mound against the Mariners last week, as he had coughed up 13 runs over his previous 9.0 innings with a poor 8:7 K:BB, but the veteran right-hander responded with a dominant outing: one unearned run over seven full frames, with eight strikeouts against two walks in the ballgame. That;s not to say that he’s out of the woods, and his Cleveland opponent tonight is the same ballclub that piled up nine runs on 11 hits over 4.0 innings against Verlander back on April 15. Under different conditions, his salary could be a bargain, but today’s decision is toss-up given recent performance patterns.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. MIL, $8,900) – Is it time to ask what’s wrong with Martinez? His first start of the year was spotless: zero runs over 7.1 innings with 10 strikeouts and zero walks allowed. That performance was worth 32.90 points on DraftKings, but he hasn’t come within 10 points of that total since, with a 6.33 ERA and .806 opponents’ OPS in the four starts since. He does have 29 strikeouts in 21.1 innings over that stretch, but his 14 walks and four homers allowed tell the other side of the story. Today he faces a Milwaukee offense that’s firing on all cylinders, and which hit Martinez up for five runs on seven hits (including two homers) when they faced him two starts ago. Martinez is always a threat to pile up a high K-count and the Brewers could contribute to an inflated total, but those strikeouts might be necessary to counteract the runs that are likely to cross the plate.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. TOR, $9,800) – Has Tanaka finally right the ship? Tanaka has improved his run prevention in each successive start this season, tossing more innings and allowing fewer runs with each turn. His last game was a majestic shutout of the rival Red Sox, with just three hits and zero walks allowed, though he totaled just three strikeouts. The lack of Ks has been a problem this season, as Tanaka has yet to top a half-dozen strikeouts in any one ballgame and has seen his K-rate drop precipitously in each season that he’s been in the majors, from 26.0 percent strikeouts in his rookie season down to 20.5 percent in 2016, and having dropped all the way down to 17.3 percent strikeouts this season. I like the opponent, I don’t like the price, and Tanaka doesn’t look to have the K-related upside to buffer in the event of hits. Interesting note: Tanaka had a GB/FB ratio of 0.90-0.92 in each of the past three seasons, but this year it’s 1.24, as he’s traded the strikeouts for grounders. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

Cole Hamels TEX (at HOU, $9,000) – The strikeouts seem to have disappeared, as a pitcher who has established himself as roughly a K-per-inning starter over his 12-year career has totaled just six strikeouts (total!) over his last three starts covering 19.2 innings, and his rate for the season is a paltry 4.1 K/9. He has been surprisingly effective from a run-suppression standpoint, with a 3.03 ERA and no more than three earned runs given up in any of his five starts this season, but he has a low hit count to thank and pitchers with such low K-rates tend to give up inflated numbers of safeties. Something’s gotta give in today’s all-Texas takedown, and the indicators are pointing in the wrong direction for Hamels and the Rangers.

Jose Quintana CHW (at KC, $9,100) – One hopes that the nightmare is over, as Quintana is coming off of by far his best start this season against these same Royals: two runs (one earned) over 6.0 frames with 10 strikeouts against two walks and five hits. Take away the strikeouts and it’s a modest line, yet it would still stand out for Quintana given the multitude of crooked numbers and short outings on his 2017 resume. Quintana hasn’t gone more than 19 outs deep in a game yet this year and has been walking more batters than usual, but the contact-driven Royals might help him to minimize the free passes. Quintana’s best attribute coming into this season was his consistency, but with a pair of blowup starts out of his first five turns, that consistency has left the building (at least temporarily).

Danny Duffy KC (vs. CHW, $8,800) – The chickens came home to roost in Duffy’s last start, as he gave up six runs on nine hits and two walks in 4.2 innings against the White Sox, with just two strikeouts to show for his work. He had been cruising prior to that start, with 6.0 or more innings in his first four starts (including 7.0 or more in three straight) and a microscopic ERA of 1.32 after his first 27.2 innings this season. However, the peripherals told another story, with a 22:10 K:BB in that same span that looked remarkably like the poor walk and K-rates that he had posted prior to 2016. The White Sox get another shot at Duffy, though this time they’ll have to defeat the lefty in KC, where he has only been for one of his five starts this season.

Matt Harvey NYM (at ATL, $7,700)

Ervin Santana MIN (vs. OAK, $8,600)

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. ARI, $8,000)

Matt Moore SF (at LAD, $8200)

Taijuan Walker ARI (at WAS, $7,800)

Sonny Gray OAK (at MIN, $7,600) – Conventional wisdom says that the A’s will keep Gray on a short leash in his first start of 2017, and the fact that he threw just 77 pitches in his last rehab outing supports that idea, but he also carved his way through six full frames on those mere 77 pitches. Perhaps even more impressive was his first rehab start, in which he threw just 47 pitches in completing five frames for high-A. Sure, these were minor-leaguers, but Gray tossed 11.0 innings of scoreless baseball with a 13:0 K:BB and just three total hits allowed. If some of that efficiency carries over into tonight’s game against the Twins, then Gray could potentially carve out a quality start without breaking 90 pitches.

Alex Cobb TB (at MIA, $7,100)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at SEA, $8,400)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at CHC, $7,400)

Trevor Cahill SD (vs. COL, $5,000)

Tyler Chatwood COL (at SD, $6,900)

Edinson Volquez MIA (vs. TB, $7,200)

Tyler Glasnow PIT (at CIN, $6,200)

Wily Peralta MIL (at STL, $6,100)

Scott Feldman CIN (vs. PIT, $6,600)

Alex Wood LAD (vs. SF, $7,900)

R.A. Dickey ATL (vs. NYM, $6,800)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. TEX, $6,500)

Alec Asher BAL (at BOS, $4,500)

Mat Latos TOR (at NYY, $5,800)