Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 13th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-14 02:31:12

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Conley	MIA	NYM	67	3.76	3.98	1.28		21.0%	7.5%	0.94	1.00
Verrett	NYM	MIA	47.2	3.59	3.90	1.03		20.5%	7.9%	1.13	1.14
Shoemaker	LAA	OAK	271.1	3.75	3.59	1.16	44.4%	21.6%	5.3%	1.26	0.98
Surkamp	OAK	LAA	27.2	5.53	4.12	1.45		19.5%	11.4%	1.63	1.07
Griffin	TEX	SEA
Walker	SEA	TEX	207.2	4.20	3.73	1.21		22.1%	6.7%	1.17	1.09
Wisler	ATL	WAS	109	4.71	4.98	1.46		15.1%	8.4%	1.32	0.78
Strasburg	WAS	ATL	342.1	3.26	2.69	1.12	52.4%	28.5%	5.0%	0.97	1.37
Greene	DET	PIT	162.1	5.38	4.12	1.48	100.0%	18.3%	7.8%	1.16	1.51
Vogelsong	PIT	DET	319.2	4.28	4.22	1.36	52.6%	18.8%	8.4%	0.99	1.12
Rea	SDP	PHI	31.2	4.26	4.13	1.26		19.6%	8.3%	0.57	1.54
Eickhoff	PHI	SDP	51	2.65	3.56	1.04		24.1%	6.4%	0.88	0.95
Pineda	NYY	TOR	237	3.57	3.19	1.10	75.0%	22.4%	2.9%	0.99	1.34
Happ	TOR	NYY	330	3.90	3.88	1.30	30.8%	20.4%	6.9%	1.04	1.12
Jimenez	BAL	BOS	309.1	4.39	4.21	1.42	27.8%	21.1%	10.8%	0.99	1.44
Kelly	BOS	BAL	230.2	4.57	4.27	1.40	40.0%	17.6%	9.1%	0.90	1.83
Carrasco	CLE	TBR	317.2	3.17	2.67	1.04		28.3%	5.7%	0.71	1.79
Smyly	TBR	CLE	219.2	3.20	3.55	1.17	50.0%	23.5%	6.9%	1.19	0.84
Simon	CIN	CHC	383.1	4.23	4.52	1.32	63.2%	14.9%	7.6%	1.08	1.40
Lackey	CHC	CIN	416	3.27	3.77	1.24	57.9%	19.6%	5.8%	0.97	1.35
Rodon	CWS	MIN	139.1	3.75	4.20	1.44		22.9%	11.7%	0.71	1.57
Hughes	MIN	CWS	365	3.90	3.68	1.20	45.0%	18.6%	2.1%	1.11	0.89
Ventura	KCR	HOU	346.1	3.61	3.79	1.30	44.4%	21.4%	8.6%	0.73	1.70
Feldman	HOU	KCR	288.2	3.80	4.37	1.31	47.1%	13.8%	6.3%	0.90	1.62
Anderson	MIL	STL	267	4.18	4.05	1.33	40.0%	19.2%	7.1%	1.15	1.18
Leake	STL	MIL	406.1	3.70	3.82	1.21	45.0%	16.9%	5.9%	1.00	1.99
Peavy	SFG	COL	313.1	3.68	4.18	1.22	42.1%	18.2%	6.8%	1.01	0.89
Lyles	COL	SFG	175.2	4.56	4.26	1.40	58.3%	15.8%	8.6%	0.72	2.01
De La Rosa	ARI	LAD	290.1	4.59	4.19	1.40	57.1%	17.9%	7.8%	1.36	1.47
Wood	LAD	ARI	361.1	3.34	3.70	1.25	58.3%	20.7%	7.0%	0.77	1.56

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Editor’s Note: Stephen Strasburg (illness) has been scratched from his start. Tanner Roark will start in his place.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. ATL) – The top two options on today’s slate are both high-strikeout right-handers who are facing exceptionally weak lineups. Strasburg was less than dominant in his first start of the year, yet he was still effective in limiting these Braves to one earned run over six frames, a feat that only required 88 pitches. He walked three and struck out four batters in the outing, but we can expect that he’ll get an additional 15 or so pitches to show off his stuff to Atlanta hitters. The 0-7 Braves will get the monkey off their backs at some point, probably soon, but they will need Stras to be off the mark. As a pitcher with a career strikeout rate of 10.4 K/9, we’ll set the over/under at 7.5 Ks for Strasburg in today’s outing… I’ll be taking the over.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (at TB) – Carrasco can be inconsistent. Consider the DFS scores for Carrasco over his first four starts of 2015 (DraftKings): 34.65, -6.40, 24.45, and -1.65 points. His ERA was as high as 4.26 as late as July 25 of last year, but over his last 10 starts Carrasco pitched 65.1 innings of 2.48-ERA baseball with an incredible 83 strikeouts against 17 walks. He can be dominant but is far from a sure thing. He’ll be a Tampa Bay club that can typically setup a strong lineup against southpaws but has a tougher time against right-handers, though the offseason acquisition of Corey Dickerson went a long way to address that particular issue. Despite his volatility, the light opponent pushes Carrasco to the top of the Raise group, nearly teetering into All-in territory.

Carlos Rodon CHW (at MIN) – Prior to the season, I predicted that Rodon would shave at least a full walk off of last season’s ugly rate of 4.6 BB/9, and in his first start of the season he went to work in making that prediction look good. He gave up just one walk and two runs against the A’s in his first start of the year, striking out six batters yet getting tagged with the loss. Like Strasburg, Rodon is facing an 0-7 team that is pushing for its first victory, and in the case of the Twins, the offense has been inexcusably poor, scoring just 13 runs in the seven-game stretch (worst in the majors). They’ve slashed .219/.290/.330 as a team and have struck out 79 times, most in the major leagues. Unless a week’s worth of regression hits in one game, I think that Rodon will justify his increasingly-steep price tag.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at TEX) – There are only three games on the morning slate and the options are thin. Walker offers easily the most upside of the morning crowd and might lead the weak group in consistency, as well, which is pretty remarkable when considering his rollercoaster season of 2015. He had a solid start against Oakland in his first turn of the year, with the fact that he didn’t walk any batters was an encouraging sign. The Rangers lineup will pose a more formidable challenge, but Walker’s upside makes him a worthy dice-roll on a day with a top-heavy slate of starting pitchers.

John Lackey CHC (vs. CIN) – Lackey’s all about the floor, which raises a bit thanks to his opponent. That floor is undergoing repairs, however, after the Diamondbacks crashed through it with six runs and two bombs in Lackey’s first start of the season. He also gave up two doubles and a triple in ballgame, and though Chase Field is conducive to such things, the frequency of hard-hit balls against Lackey was concerning. At least he was efficient, running shallow counts and buzzing through 26 batters in 6.0 innings with just 84 pitches, and he even finished the outing with three straight zeroes on the scoreboard. The question now is whether the floor repairs fixed the problem, and it might be worth a gamble to find out the answer, given the context.

Yordano Ventura KC (at HOU) – Best-known for elite velocity, Ventura’s reputation might be slipping along with his radar-gun readings. He lost a tick from 2014 to ’15, and in his first start of this season the velocity took another plunge, averaging 95.0 mph according to Brooks Baseball. Compare that value to his 96.3 mph average on Opening Day of 2015, and a disturbing trend begins to emerge. The velo is still easily plus and he can reach back for the high-90s, but this used to be a pitcher who sat 97-99 mph and spiked triple digits with regularity. It’s not necessarily doomsday if the velocity doesn’t come back, but Ventura will have to develop his command and his secondaries in order to compensate for the lost pitch speed. The fact that his nickname isn’t “Ace” is a testament to his development path, and we won’t know when/if he is ready to accept the nickname until Jim Carrey visits him in a dream.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Conley			0.308	3.92	0.260	0.743	0.304	3.81	0.253	73.47	21.0%
Verrett			0.243	4.01	0.261	0.676	0.219	4.20	0.197	38.72	20.5%
Shoemaker	0.308	3.34	0.305	3.31	0.279	0.767	0.286	3.93	0.246	80.58	21.6%
Surkamp	0.289	3.14	0.330	6.00	0.252	0.754	0.273	5.59	0.245	0.00	19.5%
Griffin					0.234	0.660
Walker	0.333	2.86	0.299	4.58	0.193	0.559	0.289	4.00	0.244	87.97	22.1%
Wisler			0.284	4.48	0.239	0.669	0.298	4.93	0.274	0.00	15.1%
Strasburg	0.287	2.75	0.307	3.81	0.255	0.707	0.314	2.89	0.238	93.65	28.5%
Greene	0.345	3.63	0.313	4.68	0.234	0.642	0.327	4.46	0.283	0.00	18.3%
Vogelsong	0.346	3.90	0.301	3.38	0.291	0.803	0.296	4.14	0.254	82.58	18.8%
Rea			0.331	3.86	0.207	0.567	0.290	3.45	0.24	87.50	19.6%
Eickhoff			0.203	1.47	0.244	0.694	0.257	3.25	0.211	92.38	24.1%
Pineda	0.233	1.33	0.299	3.84	0.235	0.718	0.300	3.14	0.25	92.20	22.4%
Happ	0.379	5.17	0.317	3.99	0.266	0.837	0.305	3.82	0.258	89.50	20.4%
Jimenez	0.354	5.43	0.323	3.66	0.257	0.714	0.301	4.28	0.249	94.14	21.1%
Kelly	0.318	3.60	0.342	5.56	0.281	0.835	0.301	4.26	0.26	0.00	17.6%
Carrasco	0.236	2.51	0.271	3.25	0.235	0.684	0.291	2.67	0.218	67.61	28.3%
Smyly	0.216	2.54	0.331	3.63	0.226	0.638	0.280	3.81	0.234	93.20	23.5%
Simon	0.313	3.92	0.307	4.08	0.242	0.694	0.279	4.55	0.256	96.40	14.9%
Lackey	0.316	3.29	0.296	3.43	0.224	0.691	0.300	3.67	0.257	96.95	19.6%
Rodon			0.350	3.92	0.262	0.672	0.315	3.87	0.246	93.88	22.9%
Hughes	0.272	2.71	0.342	4.48	0.256	0.679	0.315	3.52	0.276	89.85	18.6%
Ventura	0.288	2.68	0.306	3.49	0.244	0.747	0.297	3.59	0.241	95.53	21.4%
Feldman	0.314	2.78	0.336	4.82	0.311	0.817	0.291	4.19	0.266	100.74	13.8%
Anderson	0.314	3.76	0.341	4.48	0.279	0.762	0.306	4.17	0.265	90.71	19.2%
Leake	0.352	3.91	0.288	3.40	0.232	0.650	0.280	4.03	0.25	94.75	16.9%
Peavy	0.334	4.45	0.316	3.26	0.284	0.772	0.280	4.03	0.246	97.37	18.2%
Lyles	0.372	3.39	0.295	5.14	0.245	0.673	0.305	4.10	0.265	0.00	15.8%
De La Rosa	0.364	4.25	0.294	3.36	0.275	0.876	0.302	4.64	0.27	0.00	17.9%
Wood	0.299	2.09	0.318	3.68	0.256	0.695	0.305	3.48	0.253	83.46	20.7%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. SD) – Eickhoff lives and dies by the curve. He actually has a four-pitch repertoire, and that’s before getting into his carious fastball manipulations, with a changeup and a pair of breaking pitches. Most of his pitches fall within a 10-mph band of velocity that stretches from 82-92 mph, but the curve is the one pitch that requires its own timing pattern. The mid-70s curve has been unhittable thus far in Eickhoff’s career, as opposing batters are just 5-for-53 with four singles, a double, three walks and 31 strikeouts in at-bats that end on the pitch. His slider is also very effective, and together the breakers have been used to strike out 80 hitters but have resulted in just one extra base hit (a double). The Padres got all of the run-scoring out of their system in Colorado, and will likely resume the regularly-scheduled programming of binary code on the scoreboard, with lots of zeroes and ones.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. CLE) – The Indians lack of right-handed power bodes well for Smyly, whose extreme flyball tendencies and career platoon split of 200 OPS points can spell extreme danger when facing clubs like the Blue Jays and Tigers. He puts a lot of effort toward generating downhill plane, leaning so far to the glove side as he reaches for a taller arm slot that he ends up standing on one leg like a drunken flamingo at release point. His pitch command is not nearly as strong as his walk numbers would lead us to believe, and his popularity seems to stem from an abbreviated stint in his first stretch with the Rays, which included a complete outlier to his BABiP (it was just .186 for those 47.2 innings). As pessimistic as I am on Smyly, he’s worth a shot against Cleveland if the price is right, but it’s that price part of the equation that takes him out of my crosshairs.

Michael Pineda NYY (at TOR) – My friends have taken to calling him “el Pinata” due to the regular beatings that the right-hander takes on the mound, and today’s matchup with the hardest-hitting offense in the majors is setup to explode with candy and party favors once Toronto is handed the whooping stick. Thing is, there’s a chance that Pineda not only steps up for this game, but shuts down his opponent like he did the Blue Jays on cinco de Mayo of last year: 8.0 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K. The following start he struck out 16 Orioles. The start after that? A Kansas City whooping that was worth -8.00 points on DraftKings. Start at your own risk, but cover your eyes and ears.

Mike Leake STL (vs. MIL)

Adam Conley MIA (at NYM) – Conley is the other intriguing option among the early games, and though he has been hyped far less than fellow morning pitcher Taijuan Walker, Conley has put up solid-yet-unspectacular numbers throughout his pro career. In fact, his MLB averages of 8.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 are both right near league average, and they are both carbon-copy matches for the strikeout and walk rates that the southpaw posted in the minors.

Alex Wood LAD (vs. ARI)

Joe Kelly BOS (vs. BAL)

J.A. Happ TOR (vs. NYY)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at OAK)

Shane Greene DET (at PIT)

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at BOS)

Logan Verrett NYM (vs. MIA)

Matt Wisler ATL (at WAS)

Chase Anderson MIL (at STL)

Colin Rea SD (at PHI)

Scott Feldman HOU (vs. KC)

Rubby de la Rosa ARI (at LAD)