Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 20th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | COL | CIN | 133.1 | 4.05 | 4.12 | 1.38 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 0.88 | 1.62 | |
| Iglesias | CIN | COL | 112 | 4.02 | 3.37 | 1.19 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 1.04 | 1.34 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | STL | 192.2 | 3.88 | 3.33 | 1.15 | 22.4% | 5.6% | 0.79 | 2.01 | |
| Martinez | STL | CHC | 192.2 | 3.04 | 3.46 | 1.27 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 0.65 | 2.10 | |
| Richards | LAA | CWS | 225 | 3.64 | 3.86 | 1.24 | 65.0% | 20.8% | 8.6% | 0.84 | 1.99 |
| Sale | CWS | LAA | 231.2 | 3.30 | 2.55 | 1.06 | 64.3% | 31.6% | 4.8% | 0.97 | 1.21 |
| Walker | SEA | CLE | 181.2 | 4.41 | 3.70 | 1.19 | 21.9% | 5.6% | 1.29 | 1.06 | |
| Salazar | CLE | SEA | 196.1 | 3.30 | 3.37 | 1.12 | 12.5% | 26.3% | 7.4% | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| Colon | NYM | PHI | 207.1 | 4.04 | 3.94 | 1.23 | 42.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 1.13 | 1.16 |
| Hellickson | PHI | NYM | 160.2 | 4.59 | 4.07 | 1.30 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 1.34 | 1.14 | |
| Graveman | OAK | NYY | 127 | 3.90 | 4.38 | 1.37 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 1.13 | 1.81 | |
| Eovaldi | NYY | OAK | 166 | 4.39 | 3.92 | 1.44 | 50.0% | 18.8% | 7.1% | 0.76 | 1.87 |
| Dickey | TOR | BAL | 229 | 4.09 | 4.73 | 1.24 | 47.6% | 14.7% | 7.2% | 1.02 | 1.14 |
| Jimenez | BAL | TOR | 196 | 4.09 | 3.87 | 1.37 | 27.8% | 21.6% | 8.6% | 0.96 | 1.75 |
| Stripling | LAD | ATL | 13.1 | 2.03 | 4.41 | 0.75 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 0.00 | 1.64 | |
| Teheran | ATL | LAD | 217.2 | 4.22 | 4.27 | 1.32 | 70.0% | 20.1% | 8.8% | 1.28 | 1.08 |
| Archer | TBR | BOS | 227.1 | 3.40 | 3.09 | 1.19 | 55.0% | 29.2% | 7.9% | 0.95 | 1.38 |
| Porcello | BOS | TBR | 184.1 | 4.93 | 3.65 | 1.33 | 55.6% | 20.8% | 5.1% | 1.42 | 1.40 |
| Ross | WAS | MIA | 91.1 | 3.15 | 3.71 | 1.06 | 21.5% | 6.8% | 0.69 | 1.52 | |
| Chen | MIA | WAS | 202.2 | 3.46 | 3.94 | 1.22 | 31.6% | 19.3% | 5.0% | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| Zimmermann | DET | KCR | 214.2 | 3.44 | 3.90 | 1.19 | 52.6% | 19.4% | 5.0% | 1.01 | 1.15 |
| Kennedy | KCR | DET | 182 | 4.01 | 3.58 | 1.25 | 47.6% | 24.7% | 7.2% | 1.58 | 0.95 |
| Fister | HOU | TEX | 113.2 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 1.41 | 58.3% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Hamels | TEX | HOU | 230.2 | 3.59 | 3.49 | 1.19 | 58.8% | 24.2% | 7.3% | 0.98 | 1.56 |
| Milone | MIN | MIL | 139.1 | 4.00 | 4.37 | 1.28 | 43.8% | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.36 | 1.24 |
| Nelson | MIL | MIN | 196.2 | 3.98 | 4.15 | 1.27 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 1.01 | 1.72 | |
| Locke | PIT | SDP | 179 | 4.37 | 4.31 | 1.45 | 66.7% | 17.1% | 8.8% | 0.80 | 2.05 |
| Pomeranz | SDP | PIT | 97 | 3.62 | 3.68 | 1.19 | 25.0% | 24.1% | 9.2% | 0.84 | 1.13 |
| Greinke | ARI | SFG | 240 | 2.02 | 3.34 | 0.90 | 50.0% | 23.3% | 4.9% | 0.64 | 1.43 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | ARI | 234.1 | 3.03 | 3.04 | 1.05 | 47.6% | 27.0% | 4.9% | 0.96 | 1.13 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Chris Sale CHW (vs. LAA) – Sale is coming off a two-hit shutout of the Rays in his last start, a turn in which he had nine strikeouts and no walks versus a club that tends to stack well against southpaws. He’s thrown between 104 and 108 pitches in each start, and he has kept the runs at three or fewer while striking out six or more batters in all three starts of the young season. The Angels are still waiting for Mike Trout and Albert Pujols to announce their individual presence with authority, and odds are they’ll be waiting at least one more day.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. ARI) – After a first-start disaster that was filled with walks and runs allowed, Bumgarner appeared to be right on track in his first head-to-head battle with Clayton Kershaw of 2016, but the rematch was a disaster. Bum gave up seven runs in 5.0 innings, four of which were earned, and he gave up multiple home runs for the second time in three starts. The head-to-head battles don’t get much easier as Bumgarner takes on Zack Greinke and the D’backs tonight, but Bummer receives some benefit of the doubt given his impressive history and his standout performance in his second game of the season. He’s the best pitcher on the evening slate, and it’s not particularly close.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. SEA) – Salazar is knocking on the door of All-in territory, and the only thing holding him back at this point might be abbreviated outings due to inefficient pitch counts. Strikeout artists have a tendency for such things, but Salazar will also need to tone down the walks and the general pitches-per-batter in order to ascend to the next level. It’s his first turn at home this season, but the Mariners have a thick middle to the lineup that can make an opponent pay for his mistakes.
Zack Greinke ARI (at SF) – After two dreadful starts to begin the season, Greinke was able to get back on track in his last start, at least in terms of the runs allowed column, with two earnies in 7.1 innings pitched. Too bad it was a start against the Padres in San Diego, so it might have well been a simulated game. He’ll get the benefit of pitching in cavernous ATT Park, but the Giants have been hot to start the season and have enough scouting reports on Greinke to fill a zip drive.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. HOU) – Playing Hamels is all about the floor, but there is considerable upside in the tank that often goes ignored. Four separate times last season, Hamels had a game with 10 or more strikeouts and no more than one run allowed, and his peak start was worth more than 60 points on DraftKings. He makes for an interesting play that could stand out on a day that is chock-full with strong arms that each carry various flaws.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | 0.394 | 8.49 | 0.374 | 5.48 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.307 | 3.89 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 19.4% |
| Iglesias | 0.271 | 3.27 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.297 | 3.58 | 0.237 | 0.01 | 25.3% | ||
| Hendricks | 0.261 | 2.41 | 0.265 | 3.62 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.294 | 3.25 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 22.4% |
| Martinez | 0.363 | 5.65 | 0.275 | 2.76 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.313 | 3.22 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 24.1% |
| Richards | 0.237 | 2.78 | 0.284 | 3.32 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.280 | 3.77 | 0.234 | 0.01 | 20.8% |
| Sale | 0.183 | 0.00 | 0.280 | 3.14 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.313 | 2.72 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 31.6% |
| Walker | 0.333 | 2.86 | 0.299 | 4.58 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.290 | 4.02 | 0.249 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.14 | 0.305 | 3.73 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.275 | 3.60 | 0.219 | 0.01 | 26.3% |
| Colon | 0.299 | 4.10 | 0.325 | 4.47 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.309 | 3.75 | 0.276 | 0.00 | 17.2% |
| Hellickson | 0.261 | 3.76 | 0.355 | 4.80 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.288 | 4.35 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 19.4% |
| Graveman | 0.337 | 4.74 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.292 | 4.53 | 0.265 | 0.01 | 15.4% | ||
| Eovaldi | 0.336 | 4.30 | 0.297 | 4.15 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.335 | 3.57 | 0.281 | 0.01 | 18.8% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.266 | 4.43 | 0.245 | 0.00 | 14.7% |
| Jimenez | 0.354 | 5.43 | 0.323 | 3.66 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.315 | 3.94 | 0.258 | 0.01 | 21.6% |
| Stripling | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.147 | 2.88 | 0.116 | 0.09 | 18.8% | ||||
| Teheran | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.260 | 2.71 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.285 | 4.52 | 0.248 | 0.01 | 20.1% |
| Archer | 0.283 | 2.67 | 0.292 | 3.59 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.305 | 3.10 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 29.2% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.314 | 4.26 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.325 | 4.24 | 0.279 | 0.01 | 20.8% |
| Ross | 0.205 | 3.53 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.255 | 3.28 | 0.211 | 0.01 | 21.5% | ||
| Chen | 0.298 | 3.20 | 0.337 | 3.82 | 0.221 | 0.751 | 0.293 | 4.09 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 19.3% |
| Zimmermann | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.270 | 2.86 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.296 | 3.72 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 19.4% |
| Kennedy | 0.304 | 3.38 | 0.324 | 4.01 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.294 | 4.37 | 0.247 | 0.01 | 24.7% |
| Fister | 0.306 | 2.48 | 0.311 | 3.20 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.314 | 4.56 | 0.289 | 0.01 | 14.3% |
| Hamels | 0.291 | 2.18 | 0.290 | 3.33 | 0.223 | 0.673 | 0.291 | 3.59 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 24.2% |
| Milone | 0.323 | 3.86 | 0.335 | 4.14 | 0.198 | 0.488 | 0.277 | 4.54 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 16.5% |
| Nelson | 0.353 | 4.84 | 0.280 | 3.55 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.274 | 4.28 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 19.4% |
| Locke | 0.238 | 2.93 | 0.325 | 4.19 | 0.309 | 0.801 | 0.313 | 4.07 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 17.1% |
| Pomeranz | 0.300 | 1.20 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.210 | 0.626 | 0.270 | 3.57 | 0.215 | 0.00 | 24.1% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.257 | 2.41 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.239 | 2.89 | 0.195 | 0.01 | 23.3% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.84 | 0.286 | 3.15 | 0.256 | 0.695 | 0.286 | 3.03 | 0.224 | 0.01 | 27.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Chris Archer TB (at BOS) – It doesn’t get any easier for Archer, who faces the Red Sox in hitter-friendly Fenway following a tumultuous start to the season. He still comes within a razor’s edge of Raise territory, with strikeout upside that could pay off huge. He’s a high-beta player especially in this matchup, but it would be just like Archer to defy some more odds and spin a gem in Boston.
Joe Ross WAS (at MIA) – He’s not going to win any strikeout titles, but little Joe takes big brother’s approach and has taken the fast track of development that took Tyson years while at the highest level. Joe throws sliders on 35-percent of the pitches that he throws, which would be glaring if compared to anything other than his brother’s rates of 40-percent or higher. His velo might be a tick above average, so the key will be having strong enough fastball command to get him into safe counts where he can bury the breaking ball.
Garrett Richards LAA (at CHW)
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. CHC)
Taijuan Walker SEA (at CLE)
Jordan Zimmermann (at KC) – I see this game going one of two ways: 1) Zimm’s contact-oriented approach blends with the contact-heavy offense of the Royals to let him buzz through the lineup multiple times over, resulting in seven-plus innings of excellent run prevention; or 2) Zimm gets ping-ponged to death as Royals ride the carousel around the basepaths. Under neither scenario do I see more than a handful of strikeouts for JZ.
Raisel Iglesias CIN (vs. COL)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. MIN)
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. WAS)
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at STL)
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. LAD) – The right-hander was feeling ill so had his start pushed back a day. Here’s what I said about him in yesterday’s breakdown:
Teheran has not been himself in 2016, but the same could be said for the entirety of last season, and one wonders if his stellar 2014 season was in fact the aberration. He’s a had a tough schedule thus far, facing the Nationals twice and the Cardinals once, and things won’t get any easier today against Dodgers. Much of Teheran’s struggles have been of his own doing, including seven walks allowed in the first two outings, four homers given up on the season and a major-league-leading four wild pitches. He currently lacks the stability to harness the natural power in his delivery, and his resulting lack of command opens up the sinkhole of possibilities. Teheran will likely make for a solid play later in the season, but right now he is not to be trusted.
Ross Stripling LAD (at ATL) – Regression is looming, and the Braves are currently making up for their two-week offensive hibernation to start the season. It might be a good matchup on paper, but there’s more risk than meets the eye.
Ian Kennedy KC (vs. DET) – The combined ERA of the two starting pitchers in the Tigers-Royals tilt is 0.34, with just one earned run allowed between Kennedy and Zimmermann. The lone tally belongs to Kennedy, and one gets the feeling that many more are going to follow in the very near future. Kennedy blanked the Twins in his first start, which was a gimme at that point of the season, but followed it up with a great start against the Astros in Houston. He also struck out seven batters in each of those starts, and the fact that he threw 109 pitches in his first outing of the season speaks to a loose pitch count, in the event that he proves too much for the Tigers to handle.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TB)
Nate Eovaldi NYY (vs. OAK)
Jeff Locke PIT (at SD)
Bartolo Colon NYM (at PHI)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at NYY)
Drew Pomeranz SD (vs. PIT)
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. NYM)
Chad Bettis COL (at CIN)
Doug Fister HOU (vs. TEX)
Tommy Milone MIN (at MIL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
R.A. Dickey TOR (at BAL)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. TOR) – Two of the game’s pitchers who are most prone to beatings, in a game featuring two of the most menacing offenses in baseball, playing in a ballpark that encourages home runs to hitters from both sides of the plate. One of these guys will probably spite the odds and have a great game, but the odds of implosion are too high and I would only roll the dice in a cheap GPP.
