Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 3rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-04 02:07:12

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Koehler	MIA	CHC	301.1	4.12	4.79	1.41	52.6%	17.4%	10.1%	0.96	1.25
Lackey	CHC	MIA	354.2	3.12	3.85	1.16	57.9%	21.6%	6.5%	0.96	1.26
Guerra	MIL	SDP	107.1	2.85	4.23	1.08		20.6%	8.2%	0.84	1.34
Jackson	SDP	MIL	83.2	3.87	4.85	1.33	15.0%	15.5%	10.5%	0.75	1.05
Scherzer	WAS	ARI	377.1	2.81	2.74	0.93	60.0%	31.3%	4.8%	1.17	0.77
Godley	ARI	WAS	68.2	4.33	4.29	1.37		19.8%	9.9%	0.92	1.71
Matz	NYM	NYY	148.2	3.09	3.64	1.26		22.5%	5.9%	0.91	1.64
Green	NYY	NYM	23.2	4.56	3.06	1.18		27.3%	6.1%	2.66	1.63
Nola	PHI	SFG	188.2	4.29	3.42	1.26		23.6%	6.0%	1.00	1.86
Hamels	TEX	BAL	345.2	3.33	3.65	1.22	58.8%	24.1%	7.8%	1.02	1.53
Gausman	BAL	TEX	215.2	4.21	3.75	1.27	37.5%	22.2%	6.0%	1.50	1.20
Sale	CWS	DET	347.2	3.31	2.95	1.06	64.3%	28.9%	5.3%	1.04	1.18
Fulmer	DET	CWS	97.1	2.50	3.97	1.09		21.3%	7.6%	0.83	1.73
Volquez	KCR	TBR	330.2	4.00	4.40	1.35	50.0%	17.9%	8.5%	0.82	1.58
Odorizzi	TBR	KCR	294.2	3.57	3.96	1.18	36.8%	21.8%	6.7%	1.10	0.89
Duffey	MIN	CLE	147.2	4.94	4.04	1.45		19.0%	6.7%	1.22	1.72
Bauer	CLE	MIN	292.1	4.19	4.20	1.29	38.5%	22.3%	9.9%	1.08	1.15
Locke	PIT	ATL	274.1	4.86	4.54	1.44	66.7%	15.8%	8.1%	0.95	1.75
Whalen	ATL	PIT
Wacha	STL	CIN	302.2	3.78	4.10	1.29	53.3%	19.9%	7.5%	0.92	1.49
Reed	CIN	STL	35.2	7.07	3.95	1.79		21.5%	8.1%	2.52	1.97
Estrada	TOR	HOU	297.1	3.09	4.46	1.03	27.8%	20.1%	8.2%	1.15	0.66
McHugh	HOU	TOR	319.1	4.20	3.94	1.36	42.9%	20.6%	6.4%	0.93	1.26
Maeda	LAD	COL	120	3.23	3.63	1.08		25.0%	6.7%	0.90	1.18
Anderson	COL	LAD	54	3.33	3.46	1.28		20.4%	4.4%	0.67	2.36
Graveman	OAK	LAA	232.2	4.10	4.53	1.40		14.7%	7.3%	1.12	1.79
Weaver	LAA	OAK	276.1	4.85	5.16	1.32	52.4%	13.0%	5.6%	1.53	0.67
Porcello	BOS	SEA	307	4.28	3.80	1.25	55.6%	20.2%	4.8%	1.14	1.36
Iwakuma	SEA	BOS	260	3.88	3.94	1.19	60.0%	19.5%	5.0%	1.32	1.28

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (at ARI) – The flood of home runs that plagued Scherzer during the first couple months of the season has slowed to a drip recently, as he has coughed up just two home runs over his last six starts covering 41.1 innings of work. He has a 1.09 ERA during that stretch, including a 49:9 K:BB and just 24 hits allowed. The crazy run of double-digit strikeout games that he enjoyed in June was a bit lighter in July, but his K floor is the highest this side of Jose Fernandez, with six or more strikeouts in 21 of 22 starts including the last 18 turns. Throw in the upside to hit 20 strikeouts, as he did against the Tigers back in mid-May, and Scherzer has the potential to lap the field in terms of fantasy points. However, he’s playing an early game and will only be available in all-day tournaments.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (at PHI) – Setting aside the fact that Philly rocked Madison Bumgarner just yesterday, there are additional reasons to be less than ecstatic about rostering Cueto today. His soft opponent and strong season give him a hefty price tag, but for a pitcher who has staked his reputation this season on lengthy outings, consistent run prevention and strong fantasy scores driven by counting stats, his past month has been a mixed bag. In three of his last six starts, Cueto has scored 25 or more points on DraftKings; in the other three starts, he’s scored fewer than six points in each turn. He could toss a shutout with nine Ks or get blasted for six runs over five frames and either result would be in line with his work over the past month.

Chris Sale CHW (at DET) – Speaking of aces who are off their game, Sale hasn’t had his trademark dominant start in a while. He did toss eight scoreless frames with just one hit allowed two starts ago, though he walked three batters, it was the fourth time this season that his walks exceeded two in a game. Another one of those three-walk games came in his last start, a solid six-inning effort with two runs allowed against the Cubs but with just four strikeouts. Two starts ago, he was coughing up eight runs to the Braves of all teams. Thing is, Sale has still been a reliable source of fantasy points, scoring 23 points or more in five of his last seven starts. The lanky lefty has a vaulted ceiling if he puts it all together.

John Lackey CHC (vs. MIA) – Over his last seven games, Lackey has hit every number from one-to-seven in runs allowed, meaning that he is clearly due for either a scoreless start or an eight-spot on the scoreboard. The good news is that his weird runs pattern is on a downhill trend, counting down like a shuttle launch into his six-inning, one-run performance against the White Sox in his last turn. He has pitched 6.0 or more innings in six consecutive starts and walked two or fewer hitters five games in a row. He also broke a seven-start string of allowing one or more homers by keeping the White Sox in the park.

Cole Hamels TEX (at BAL) – Hamels struck out a season-high 12 batters in his last start, a game that stands out like a sore thumb for a pitcher who had struck out eight or fewer batters in 11 straight starts. He also did it unconventionally, leaning on the curveball to miss bats against the high-contact Royals, throwing more curves than he had all season rather than relying on the changeup that’s been his bread-and-butter throughout Hamels’ career. The game prior – also against the Royals – Hamels threw his second-highest count of curves this season, so it will be interesting to see if the altered approach persists tonight against the Orioles or if it was something that was triggered specifically to the Royals.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Koehler	0.335	4.30	0.310	3.94	0.247	0.739	0.290	4.43	0.253	0.00	17.4%
Lackey	0.314	3.09	0.274	3.14	0.262	0.704	0.284	3.66	0.238	0.00	21.6%
Guerra	0.273	2.51	0.266	3.12	0.238	0.682	0.243	3.74	0.208	0.01	20.6%
Jackson	0.275	2.45	0.321	4.98	0.252	0.710	0.264	4.27	0.234	0.00	15.5%
Scherzer	0.295	2.99	0.223	2.63	0.263	0.734	0.259	3.00	0.199	0.01	31.3%
Godley	0.274	3.82	0.351	4.74	0.245	0.719	0.297	4.21	0.25	0.01	19.8%
Matz	0.329	3.12	0.293	3.08	0.256	0.728	0.319	3.41	0.26	0.01	22.5%
Green	0.404	5.73	0.278	3.55	0.241	0.709	0.254	5.46	0.237	0.04	27.3%
Cueto	0.270	2.54	0.293	3.59	0.242	0.683	0.284	3.23	0.235	0.00	21.1%
Nola	0.324	4.52	0.292	4.13	0.264	0.737	0.316	3.47	0.255	0.01	23.6%
Hamels	0.269	1.99	0.305	3.72	0.238	0.677	0.289	3.73	0.234	0.00	24.1%
Gausman	0.276	2.87	0.373	5.60	0.259	0.744	0.299	4.26	0.257	0.01	22.2%
Sale	0.274	3.13	0.282	3.35	0.270	0.777	0.296	3.12	0.226	0.01	28.9%
Fulmer	0.270	1.76	0.283	3.16	0.249	0.698	0.252	3.69	0.212	0.01	21.3%
Volquez	0.309	3.61	0.313	4.40	0.241	0.705	0.295	3.99	0.253	0.00	17.9%
Odorizzi	0.268	2.81	0.331	4.41	0.264	0.722	0.277	3.78	0.235	0.00	21.8%
Duffey	0.313	3.21	0.378	6.63	0.254	0.741	0.331	4.18	0.285	0.00	19.0%
Bauer	0.301	3.84	0.311	4.53	0.244	0.704	0.277	4.16	0.231	0.00	22.3%
Locke	0.322	5.40	0.335	4.67	0.237	0.644	0.308	4.28	0.273	0.00	15.8%
Whalen					0.261	0.728
Wacha	0.285	3.33	0.322	4.12	0.247	0.705	0.292	3.80	0.248	0.00	19.9%
Reed			0.409	7.14	0.236	0.683	0.367	6.05	0.321	0.00	21.5%
Estrada	0.279	3.17	0.261	2.99	0.250	0.749	0.213	4.24	0.194	0.00	20.1%
McHugh	0.312	4.29	0.334	4.12	0.259	0.783	0.329	3.64	0.273	0.00	20.6%
Maeda	0.289	2.73	0.258	3.61	0.270	0.776	0.276	3.36	0.221	0.01	25.0%
Anderson	0.263	1.26	0.333	4.08	0.249	0.720	0.333	3.00	0.274	0.02	20.4%
Graveman	0.345	3.71	0.315	4.49	0.257	0.721	0.299	4.55	0.273	0.00	14.7%
Weaver	0.339	4.42	0.347	5.25	0.249	0.703	0.284	5.13	0.275	0.00	13.0%
Porcello	0.322	4.04	0.319	4.58	0.250	0.739	0.312	3.89	0.267	0.00	20.2%
Iwakuma	0.323	3.76	0.302	3.98	0.273	0.774	0.287	4.10	0.255	0.00	19.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Michael Fulmer DET (vs. CHW) – Fulmer has been a revelation for the Tigers this season, and his ability to go deep into ballgames – he has gone 7.0 or more innings in 6 of his 16 starts – raises the roof of his potential fantasy scores. His strikeouts have been all over the place, however, spiking double-digits twice this season yet falling short of a half-dozen in 10 of his starts, including the last four games in a row. He also walked just five total batters over those four starts, and his top-end stuff encourages the optimism that he can pick up the K rate.

Steven Matz NYM (at NYY) – Matz was extremely effective early in the season, topping 19 fantasy points in seven consecutive starts following his disaster in game no. 1. The road has been rockier ever since, with more than 19 points in just three of his last 11 starts. He gave up a season-high 10 hits in his last start but stranded enough baserunners to see only two men cross the plate on his watch over his 6.0 innings. He has struck out exactly five or six batters in each of his last six starts, and the overall performance has been solid if unspectacular with a 3.47 ERA and 33:12 K:BB in 36.1 innings over that stretch.

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. KC) – Odorizzi is playing his best baseball of the season, with two consecutive scoreless starts and a three-game run of 22 or more fantasy points on DraftKings. Pitch count efficiency has been a vulnerability of his all season, completing the sixth inning in just seven of his first 19 starts, but he has accomplished that feat in each of his last three games, including a season-high 8.0 innings two starts ago against the A’s.

Marco Estrada TOR (at HOU) – His rate of hits allowed leads the American League and his 1.014 WHIP is also the best mark among starters in the circuit. He’s been more vulnerable recently, with a 4.10 ERA over his last seven starts, but the upside is that he has upped the K rate over that stretch with 45 strikeouts over 41.2 innings pitched. He’s been good for six frames in six of those seven starts but little more, after he had tossed 7.0 or more innings in four straight. The extra strikeouts are likely to continue against an Astros team that leads the AL in batter whiffs, but Houston also has the clout to hang crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. MIN) – Bauer was a stud in June, tossing 7.0 or more frames in five of six starts and striking out nine or more batters in three of those games; he surrendered three or fewer runs in each of the six starts. July was not as kind, with five consecutive starts of 6.0 or fewer frames and never topping a half-dozen Ks in any one game, giving up more than three runs in three of the five turns. The walks that plagued him in previous years – the lack of which formed the foundation for his success in June – has a returned over the last several starts. He walked 12 batters in 44.2 June innings (2.4 BB/9), but July saw Bauer gave away 14 free passes in just 26.0 frames (4.8 BB/9).

Junior Guerra MIL (at SD)

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. SF)

Rick Porcello BOS (at SEA)

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. TEX)

Michael Wacha STL (at CIN)

Edinson Volquez KC (at TB)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at LAA)

Collin McHugh HOU (vs. TOR)

Rob Whalen ATL (vs. PIT) – The 22-year-old makes his big league debut, following a solid 120-inning stretch in the minors this season, split between Double- and Triple-A but with more than 100 of the frames coming at the lower level. He combined for a 2.93 ERA and only allowed four homers in the 120 innings, though his 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 have room for improvement.

Jeff Locke PIT (at ATL)

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. OAK)

Chad Green NYY (vs. NYM)

Zack Godley ARI (vs. WAS)

Edwin Jackson SD (vs. MIL)

Tom Koehler MIA (at CHC)