Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 11th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-12 01:58:20

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Wilson	BAL	MIN	59.2	3.32	4.73	1.27		10.5%	6.9%	0.45	1.84
Hughes	MIN	BAL	187.2	4.65	4.38	1.31	45.0%	14.7%	3.0%	1.58	0.93
Latos	CWS	TEX	150.2	4.42	4.10	1.28	66.7%	18.7%	6.6%	1.02	1.29
Hamels	TEX	CWS	249.1	3.50	3.52	1.19	58.8%	24.4%	7.7%	0.94	1.56
Salazar	CLE	HOU	222.2	3.19	3.39	1.09	12.5%	26.4%	7.7%	0.97	1.19
Fister	HOU	CLE	138.2	4.28	4.63	1.38	58.3%	13.7%	6.3%	1.23	1.34
Ray	ARI	COL	158.1	3.75	4.09	1.39	33.3%	22.0%	9.5%	0.74	1.26
Bettis	COL	ARI	158	4.27	4.07	1.35		18.8%	7.6%	0.97	1.73
Archer	TBR	SEA	250.1	3.38	3.13	1.19	55.0%	29.0%	8.0%	0.93	1.38
Walker	SEA	TBR	201.2	4.15	3.61	1.17		22.2%	5.1%	1.25	1.09
Stroman	TOR	SFG	77	2.92	3.52	1.00	66.7%	17.9%	6.3%	0.70	2.78
Bumgarner	SFG	TOR	261.1	2.96	3.02	1.06	47.6%	27.4%	5.0%	0.90	1.12
Zimmermann	DET	WAS	242.2	3.23	3.92	1.18	52.6%	19.0%	4.7%	0.96	1.15
Scherzer	WAS	DET	271.2	3.08	2.78	0.98	60.0%	29.8%	4.5%	1.19	0.81
Ventura	KCR	NYY	194.1	4.17	4.05	1.34	44.4%	21.7%	9.9%	0.79	1.70
Pineda	NYY	KCR	193.2	4.60	3.20	1.29	75.0%	23.2%	3.7%	1.35	1.51
Anderson	MIL	MIA	182	4.65	4.34	1.38	40.0%	17.2%	6.7%	1.29	1.21
Chen	MIA	MIL	228	3.55	4.01	1.23	31.6%	18.8%	5.1%	1.30	1.09
Surkamp	OAK	BOS	22.2	6.35	5.84	1.85		11.4%	11.4%	1.99	0.72
Porcello	BOS	OAK	211.2	4.55	3.61	1.29	55.6%	21.3%	5.2%	1.32	1.38
Eickhoff	PHI	ATL	87.1	3.30	3.52	1.09		23.5%	5.7%	0.93	1.09
Chacin	ATL	PHI	53.1	4.39	3.89	1.33	18.2%	21.1%	7.9%	1.35	1.53
Liriano	PIT	CIN	221.2	3.41	3.48	1.23	12.5%	26.3%	9.6%	0.81	1.93
Adleman	CIN	PIT
Rea	SDP	CHC	67	4.03	4.26	1.30		18.5%	8.7%	0.81	1.68
Hendricks	CHC	SDP	209	3.83	3.36	1.14		22.3%	5.7%	0.78	2.01
Garcia	STL	LAA	168	2.57	3.34	1.04	28.6%	20.7%	6.6%	0.38	2.77
Shoemaker	LAA	STL	156	5.08	4.13	1.34	44.4%	19.6%	6.7%	1.73	0.92
Syndergaard	NYM	LAD	188.1	3.11	2.83	1.05		28.5%	5.2%	0.96	1.50
Maeda	LAD	NYM	38	1.66	3.60	0.95		23.8%	6.8%	0.71	1.13

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at LAD) – Thor killed it in April, with a 1.69 ERA and 38:4 K:BB ratio, but his two starts of May have been pedestrian by comparison. Facing the Giants and Padres, Syndergaard surrendered six runs over 11.2 innings with 11 Ks and four walks. Solid, but not what we paid for. The road gets tougher for the right-hander, facing the Dodgers today and the Nats in his next turn, though he should consider himself fortunate for dodging the Mets series in Denver. Syndergaard offers a high floor in addition to one of the highest ceilings in the game, and if anything the recent run of mediocre starts have made him a bit cheaper fit on a fantasy roster for today’s games.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Danny Salazar CLE (at HOU) – Salazar has recovered from slow starts the past two seasons to finish with strong numbers, but in 2016 he has burst out of the gate with a 1.91 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 37.2 innings of work. The hit rate just has to come up, as no pitcher this side of Dellin Betances can maintain a sub-5.0 H/9 frequency, let alone Salazar’s major-league leading rate of 4.3 H/9. He has given up nearly as many walks (16) as hits (18) on the season. Facing swing-happy Houston, Salazar could put up astronomical strikeout numbers today, but an inability to harness the walks could also result in crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

Chris Archer TB (at SEA) – Things are looking up for the right-hander. In his first four starters, Acher never cracked more than 5.1 innings pitched and was battered to the tune of a 7.32 ERA. In his last three turns, the right-hander has cleared 6.0 or more innings pitched in every turn and produced a 0.96 ERA despite playing the high-powered offenses of the Orioles and Blue Jays, as well as the top-heavy lineup of the Angels. He has spun 18.2 innings over those three starts, with 20 Ks and six walks allowed. In his worst of the three games, he gave up fewer runs than in any one of his first four starts. Time to re-hitch onto Archer’s wagon.

Max Scherzer (vs. DET) – Scherzer has not exactly been an ace thus far in 2016, with a 4.60 ERA, a K-per inning and 3:1 K:BB ratio. The peripheral stats would be great for most pitchers, but for the price that it takes to acquire Scherzer’s services we expect more than a solid showing. He showed glimpses of upside when he blanked the Cardinals for seven innings (with 9 Ks) two starts ago, but he followed it up with a seven-run fiasco against the Cubs. Now he gets to face his old team, and Scherzer can expect that the Tigers have a plan for how to attack the right-hander. The Detroit lineup takes a big dent if Miguel Cabrera sits out for the second consecutive day, in which case Scherzer receives a boost in value.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. TOR) – Bum’s the Rock, locking down more hitters than Alcatraz, but today he meets a new type of opponent. Bumgarner has never faced the Blue Jays before, and though he does have experience with platoon-stacked lineups while playing in the NL West, the magnitude of heavy hitters in the Toronto lineup could make life tough on Mad Bum in today’s game. The Jays wOBA against southpaws is .349 – a 20-point higher split than any other tandem available today – and the .807 OPS against left-handers is tops by 50 points. Playing Bumgarner is a zig play that might work for large tournaments, but I wouldn’t take the risk in cash games.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. NYM) – The league keeps throwing up barriers, and Maeda just keeps knocking ‘em down. Throw him into Colorado? He gives up no runs, four baserunners, and strikes out eight batters over 6.1 innings. Make him face the best offense that the AL has to offer? Maeda gives up just two hits to the Blue Jays over six frames. He has pitched 6.0-7.0 innings in every start yet has kept his pitch count under 102, and though he walked four batters against Toronto, he has earned his way into the circle of DFS trust… for now.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. TB) – A pain in the neck knocked Walker from his last start after just two innings, and the ailment may have been at least partly responsible for the pair of homers that he surrendered before exiting. There is risk that he has not fully recovered, and/or that the Mariners might have a quick hook for the young arm in this one, but the upside in rostering Walker can’t be denied. The kid has 29 strikeouts and just three walks allowed in 32.0 innings so far this season, and he started the year with four consecutive starts of six or more innings pitched, two or fewer runs allowed and 100 or more pitches thrown. He has missed all three marks in his last two turns, but the Rays should give him the opportunity to get back on track. Regarding his K rate, though, keep in mind that he has only cleared more than six strikeouts once in six starts this season.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Wilson	0.290	2.94	0.329	3.81	0.241	0.694	0.281	3.85	0.259	0.01	10.5%
Hughes	0.331	4.26	0.360	5.04	0.257	0.761	0.307	4.59	0.29	0.00	14.7%
Latos	0.334	5.04	0.296	3.89	0.258	0.735	0.294	3.88	0.255	0.01	18.7%
Hamels	0.294	2.17	0.295	3.87	0.240	0.651	0.290	3.59	0.232	0.01	24.4%
Salazar	0.284	3.56	0.276	2.84	0.247	0.747	0.267	3.42	0.211	0.01	26.4%
Fister	0.331	4.44	0.345	4.09	0.253	0.725	0.296	4.69	0.276	0.00	13.7%
Ray	0.286	2.80	0.338	4.13	0.261	0.707	0.318	3.70	0.254	0.01	22.0%
Bettis	0.316	4.25	0.335	4.29	0.265	0.740	0.302	3.98	0.259	0.01	18.8%
Archer	0.275	3.42	0.294	3.34	0.242	0.718	0.304	3.10	0.227	0.01	29.0%
Walker	0.294	3.62	0.318	4.82	0.244	0.698	0.290	3.89	0.246	0.01	22.2%
Stroman	0.247	3.33	0.266	2.32	0.266	0.744	0.236	3.52	0.207	0.02	17.9%
Bumgarner	0.232	2.74	0.284	3.01	0.273	0.804	0.291	2.91	0.225	0.01	27.4%
Zimmermann	0.320	3.36	0.268	3.09	0.245	0.709	0.294	3.64	0.254	0.00	19.0%
Scherzer	0.313	3.54	0.228	2.61	0.268	0.735	0.270	3.08	0.211	0.01	29.8%
Ventura	0.321	5.13	0.295	3.19	0.245	0.727	0.296	3.83	0.24	0.01	21.7%
Pineda	0.337	4.37	0.337	4.81	0.265	0.728	0.336	3.63	0.279	0.01	23.2%
Anderson	0.327	3.97	0.356	5.20	0.259	0.696	0.310	4.48	0.277	0.01	17.2%
Chen	0.258	1.83	0.346	4.09	0.233	0.684	0.293	4.15	0.261	0.01	18.8%
Surkamp			0.372	4.96	0.267	0.744	0.304	7.05	0.299	0.00	11.4%
Porcello	0.330	4.42	0.330	4.71	0.248	0.700	0.318	4.05	0.271	0.01	21.3%
Eickhoff	0.364	4.93	0.219	2.02	0.254	0.674	0.274	3.27	0.225	0.02	23.5%
Chacin	0.365	6.17	0.285	3.00	0.243	0.677	0.292	4.27	0.252	0.02	21.1%
Liriano	0.260	2.98	0.293	3.53	0.247	0.711	0.289	3.40	0.221	0.01	26.3%
Adleman					0.266	0.738
Rea	0.268	3.57	0.364	4.73	0.249	0.742	0.283	3.98	0.241	0.01	18.5%
Hendricks	0.341	3.62	0.251	3.98	0.242	0.681	0.291	3.26	0.238	0.01	22.3%
Garcia	0.255	3.31	0.246	2.37	0.236	0.680	0.261	2.89	0.211	0.01	20.7%
Shoemaker	0.329	5.68	0.352	4.38	0.264	0.753	0.291	4.88	0.263	0.01	19.6%
Syndergaard	0.291	3.55	0.258	2.71	0.244	0.723	0.291	2.90	0.223	0.01	28.5%
Maeda	0.223	1.56	0.249	1.74	0.245	0.719	0.235	3.12	0.191	0.04	23.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

The deep slate of pitchers available creates a ton of intrigue in the call section. Suited connectors that could pay off huge if the right flop comes along.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. CHW) – The White Sox really struggle against southpaws. Of all the platoon-split scenarios, Hamels has the greatest advantage, facing a White Sox lineup that has a league-low (among today’s teams) .285 wOBA and .651 OPS against left-handers. Hamels is on the cusp of the raise cohort, and I wouldn’t argue too hard if somebody pushed for his promotion.

Marcus Stroman TOR (at SF) – The right-hander didn’t strike out more than five batters in a ball game during the month of April, but he has stepped up the strikeouts since the calendar flipped to May. Owner of a minor-league K rate of 10.8 K/9, that rate has yet to translate to the highest level, but over his last two starts Stroman has struck out 17 batters in 15.0 innings of work. Maybe it’s a blip, or maybe it’s the beginning of something great. Either way, ATT Park is a good venue for a pitcher of his talents.

John Lackey CHC (vs. SD) – Solid pitcher, weak opponent and a higher strikeout ceiling than his full-season rate might suggest.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at ATL) – Solid pitcher, weak opponent and a higher strikeout ceiling than his full-season rate might suggest.

Jordan Zimmermann DET (at WAS) – His 1.10 ERA is tops in baseball among qualified starters, but the strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 limits the upside of his expected point spread in DFS, as he hasn’t topped 26 points in a start yet on DraftKings. Zim’s last start was a prime example, with just three earned runs and eight baserunners over eight full innings, as the K-count of two left him with just 7.60 points.

Jaime Garcia STL (at LAA) – We’re getting to the point in the campaign where we can start lending some credence to full-season stats, but in the case of Garcia’s strikeouts, one massive outlier is still compromising the overall numbers. Garcia has a 13-strikeout game against the Brewers in his second start of the season, but since that outing he has compiled a merely respectable 21 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. That said, Garcia was never a big strikeout guy in the past, such that a K-per-inning would represent a big step up for the left-hander.

Yordano Ventura KC (at NYY) – Ventura is walking everyone he sees. His 25 total free passes lead the majors, he has walked multiple batters in every start and has walked five or more batters in three of his six turns this season. He also have 25 strikeouts, and on a percentage basis both rates are an unacceptable 17.6 percent on the year.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. KC)

Rick Porcello BOS (vs. OAK)

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. MIL)

Mat Latos CHW (at TEX)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. SD)

Juan Nicasio PIT (at CIN)

Jhoulys Chacin ATL (vs. PHI)

Drew Pomeranz SD (at CHC)

Tyler Wilson BAL (at MIN)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. STL)

Doug Fister HOU (vs. CLE)

Chase Anderson MIL (at MIA)