Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 4th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lester | CHC | PIT | 239.1 | 3.12 | 3.18 | 1.09 | 65.0% | 25.1% | 5.7% | 0.75 | 1.65 |
| Nicasio | PIT | CHC | 85.1 | 3.69 | 3.78 | 1.43 | 35.7% | 25.4% | 11.9% | 0.42 | 1.29 |
| Peavy | SFG | CIN | 133.2 | 4.44 | 4.38 | 1.27 | 42.1% | 17.0% | 5.7% | 0.94 | 0.87 |
| Straily | CIN | SFG | 40.2 | 4.20 | 4.44 | 1.23 | 14.3% | 20.9% | 11.6% | 1.11 | 1.07 |
| Chacin | ATL | NYM | 48.2 | 3.33 | 3.66 | 1.23 | 18.2% | 21.7% | 6.9% | 0.74 | 1.58 |
| Matz | NYM | ATL | 56.2 | 2.86 | 3.52 | 1.34 | 23.2% | 7.1% | 0.79 | 1.66 | |
| Santiago | LAA | MIL | 213 | 3.55 | 4.38 | 1.23 | 16.7% | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.44 | 0.62 |
| Davies | MIL | LAA | 47.1 | 5.13 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 0.76 | 2.42 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | KCR | 163.1 | 3.20 | 2.76 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 29.6% | 5.2% | 0.83 | 1.32 |
| Medlen | KCR | WAS | 78.2 | 4.23 | 4.63 | 1.37 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 0.92 | 1.49 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | OAK | 234.1 | 3.23 | 3.53 | 1.17 | 81.0% | 22.8% | 7.9% | 0.96 | 2.08 |
| Manaea | OAK | SEA | |||||||||
| Chatwood | COL | SDP | 29.2 | 2.73 | 4.04 | 1.28 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 5.7% | 0.91 | 1.75 |
| Vargas | SDP | COL | 10.1 | 0.87 | 4.47 | 1.45 | 20.5% | 13.6% | 0.87 | 2.67 | |
| Sanchez | DET | CLE | 180.2 | 5.13 | 4.11 | 1.36 | 41.2% | 21.2% | 8.4% | 1.69 | 1.00 |
| Kluber | CLE | DET | 256 | 3.59 | 2.98 | 1.05 | 57.1% | 27.5% | 4.9% | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| Sabathia | NYY | BAL | 188.2 | 4.77 | 4.18 | 1.45 | 25.0% | 18.4% | 7.4% | 1.38 | 1.42 |
| Wilson | BAL | NYY | 53.2 | 3.35 | 4.80 | 1.29 | 9.9% | 6.3% | 0.50 | 1.67 | |
| Lewis | TEX | TOR | 235.2 | 4.47 | 4.49 | 1.26 | 11.8% | 16.3% | 5.2% | 1.26 | 0.75 |
| Sanchez | TOR | TEX | 123.2 | 3.06 | 4.14 | 1.25 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 0.87 | 2.77 | |
| De La Rosa | ARI | MIA | 212.1 | 4.62 | 4.04 | 1.33 | 57.1% | 19.5% | 7.8% | 1.48 | 1.57 |
| Fernandez | MIA | ARI | 93.1 | 3.28 | 2.86 | 1.20 | 75.0% | 31.0% | 7.3% | 0.48 | 1.29 |
| Wood | LAD | TBR | 217.2 | 3.97 | 4.18 | 1.38 | 58.3% | 17.3% | 7.7% | 0.66 | 1.89 |
| Smyly | TBR | LAD | 101.1 | 2.93 | 3.03 | 1.01 | 50.0% | 29.3% | 6.5% | 1.42 | 0.77 |
| Buchholz | BOS | CWS | 141 | 3.89 | 3.69 | 1.28 | 33.3% | 21.3% | 6.1% | 0.64 | 1.43 |
| Rodon | CWS | BOS | 166.1 | 3.84 | 4.12 | 1.43 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 0.76 | 1.68 | |
| Hughes | MIN | HOU | 185.2 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 1.28 | 45.0% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 1.55 | 0.92 |
| Fiers | HOU | MIN | 209.1 | 3.87 | 3.82 | 1.26 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 1.33 | 0.93 | |
| Morgan | PHI | STL | 89.1 | 4.53 | 4.80 | 1.24 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 1.51 | 0.60 | |
| Leake | STL | PHI | 221.1 | 3.98 | 4.21 | 1.19 | 45.0% | 15.2% | 6.3% | 1.06 | 1.92 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at KC) – Stras has been a machine this season, and judging by the progressive K count of his game logs, he’s just getting warmed up. He only needed 88 pitches to clear six innings in his first start of the year, and since has completed no fewer than seven full frames and struck out no fewer than seven batters in each of four starts. He has punched out 29 batters against three walks over his last three starts, after posting modest K numbers against the Braves in both of his first two turns. The Royals might be able to keep his strikeouts at bay, but they’ll have a tough time getting through his curtain of run prevention.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at OAK) – The King has ruled over Oaktown since pretty much the day that he first ascended to the throne. He only has more innings pitched against one team in his career (the Rangers), and no team outside the AL West has endured Felix for even half as many innings. In 286.1 career frames against the Athletics, Hernandez has a 2.58 ERA with 272 strikeouts and a 22-8 record. He has just one game with more than a half-dozen strikeouts in 2016, that being a 10-K masterpiece over seven blank frames against … the A’s. Felix is having a weird season, with his walk out of control (18 walks in 32.2 innings) but a low hit rate to balance the scales, and with just two home runs allowed he has compiled a 1.38 ERA on the season with a respectable 1.13 WHIP, but one gets the feeling that he could dominate the A’s while pitching blindfolded.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Corey Kluber CLE (vs. DET) – Kluber has had a disappointing start to the season, at least in terms of run prevention, with a 4.24 ERA that he’s still trying to whittle down from a tough interleague matchup with the Mets. His K:BB ratio of 35:5 is more telling of his performance, including a WHIP of 1.00 and three homers allowed in five starts. He has had only one double-digit K game thus far in 2016, striking out 10 of these Tigers over 8.0 innings two starts ago. He and Fernandez carry a similar run-prevention problem but also similar high-K potential, offering risk/reward in both cases, but Kluber gets the nod due to the likelihood that Kluber contributes an additional inning or two.
Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. ARI) – Fern has thrown between 5.0 and 6.0 innings in each of his five turns this season, and though the strikeouts have dodged from mediocre to elite on a game-to-game basis, for past several turns the one constant has been an excessive number of walks. He has given away three or more free passes in each of his last four starts, but in most cases he kept the hit count down to minimize the damage. Fern hasn’t given up a home run since his first start of the year, and if he can be more efficient with his pitches then he might just be able to play into the seventh inning against the Diamondbacks.
Jon Lester CHC (at PIT) – Lester has benefited from an easy schedule in the early season, but that only takes a small amount of the luster off of his going 7.0 or more innings while allowing exactly one run in four of his five starts this season. He has yet to face an offense of this caliber in 2016, and the fact that he has struck out five or fewer hitters in three starts (including two of his one-run turns) is counterbalanced by the two, 10-K games that he has thus far on the ledger.
Steven Matz NYM (vs. ATL) – Matz was blasted in his first start of the season, never escaping the second inning as the Marlins pinned seven runs to his track record. Since that forgettable disaster, though, Matz has been mowing down hitters: a 0.93 ERA with 21 K and 5 walks in three starts. At some point he’ll get lit again, probably just as folks start to begin investing heavily.
Drew Smyly TB (vs. LAD) – It takes quite a bit for me to put Smyly in the raise section, as his underlying delivery leads to inconsistencies and the mechanics junkie in me can’t ignore what’s right in front of our eyes. He has really turned it on it this season, though, striking out an impressive 41 batters in 34.2 innings with double-digit Ks in two of those previous games.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lester | 0.282 | 3.38 | 0.284 | 3.04 | 0.254 | 0.710 | 0.296 | 2.97 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 25.1% |
| Nicasio | 0.390 | 5.74 | 0.259 | 2.76 | 0.248 | 0.738 | 0.326 | 3.10 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 25.4% |
| Peavy | 0.329 | 4.19 | 0.327 | 4.70 | 0.246 | 0.698 | 0.298 | 3.85 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 17.0% |
| Straily | 0.279 | 4.35 | 0.330 | 4.05 | 0.266 | 0.746 | 0.231 | 4.62 | 0.201 | 0.02 | 20.9% |
| Chacin | 0.335 | 4.87 | 0.258 | 2.22 | 0.246 | 0.717 | 0.298 | 3.23 | 0.243 | 0.02 | 21.7% |
| Matz | 0.370 | 3.38 | 0.278 | 2.70 | 0.229 | 0.626 | 0.335 | 3.29 | 0.266 | 0.02 | 23.2% |
| Santiago | 0.271 | 2.44 | 0.321 | 3.94 | 0.230 | 0.674 | 0.249 | 4.68 | 0.222 | 0.01 | 21.0% |
| Davies | 0.311 | 3.32 | 0.364 | 6.66 | 0.248 | 0.705 | 0.313 | 4.30 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 16.5% |
| Strasburg | 0.243 | 2.43 | 0.312 | 4.04 | 0.265 | 0.732 | 0.310 | 2.61 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 29.6% |
| Medlen | 0.323 | 4.32 | 0.313 | 4.14 | 0.245 | 0.708 | 0.283 | 4.39 | 0.249 | 0.01 | 16.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.300 | 3.75 | 0.285 | 2.65 | 0.248 | 0.701 | 0.276 | 3.74 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Manaea | 0.259 | 0.727 | |||||||||
| Chatwood | 0.230 | 0.59 | 0.392 | 5.02 | 0.241 | 0.681 | 0.301 | 3.84 | 0.267 | 0.03 | 16.1% |
| Vargas | 0.268 | 0.774 | 0.296 | 4.62 | 0.243 | 0.10 | 20.5% | ||||
| Sanchez | 0.314 | 4.20 | 0.369 | 6.15 | 0.251 | 0.721 | 0.287 | 4.87 | 0.255 | 0.00 | 21.2% |
| Kluber | 0.320 | 3.97 | 0.237 | 3.20 | 0.268 | 0.737 | 0.296 | 2.93 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 27.5% |
| Sabathia | 0.245 | 4.20 | 0.368 | 4.93 | 0.241 | 0.675 | 0.319 | 4.59 | 0.281 | 0.01 | 18.4% |
| Wilson | 0.293 | 2.86 | 0.338 | 3.91 | 0.246 | 0.733 | 0.287 | 3.91 | 0.267 | 0.01 | 9.9% |
| Lewis | 0.334 | 4.54 | 0.312 | 4.39 | 0.262 | 0.780 | 0.291 | 4.39 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 16.3% |
| Sanchez | 0.366 | 4.19 | 0.206 | 1.91 | 0.259 | 0.736 | 0.252 | 4.33 | 0.222 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| De La Rosa | 0.396 | 6.75 | 0.267 | 2.82 | 0.258 | 0.692 | 0.284 | 4.71 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 19.5% |
| Fernandez | 0.351 | 4.12 | 0.217 | 2.67 | 0.265 | 0.740 | 0.345 | 2.26 | 0.238 | 0.02 | 31.0% |
| Wood | 0.263 | 3.42 | 0.334 | 4.15 | 0.259 | 0.756 | 0.316 | 3.67 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 17.3% |
| Smyly | 0.248 | 1.75 | 0.287 | 3.33 | 0.259 | 0.742 | 0.249 | 3.66 | 0.203 | 0.02 | 29.3% |
| Buchholz | 0.305 | 4.01 | 0.309 | 3.76 | 0.251 | 0.701 | 0.326 | 3.17 | 0.264 | 0.01 | 21.3% |
| Rodon | 0.230 | 3.14 | 0.349 | 4.13 | 0.267 | 0.743 | 0.312 | 3.84 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Hughes | 0.330 | 4.11 | 0.351 | 4.71 | 0.247 | 0.743 | 0.304 | 4.51 | 0.287 | 0.00 | 14.8% |
| Fiers | 0.296 | 3.52 | 0.331 | 4.21 | 0.242 | 0.696 | 0.287 | 4.17 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Morgan | 0.279 | 4.71 | 0.348 | 4.48 | 0.231 | 0.668 | 0.279 | 4.80 | 0.265 | 0.01 | 15.0% |
| Leake | 0.315 | 4.24 | 0.289 | 3.70 | 0.245 | 0.681 | 0.265 | 4.26 | 0.245 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. TEX) – Don’t let one rough start overlook a great value on today’s slate. Sanchez comes cheaply, and though he has a tough opponent, there’s a decent shot at a very strong performance. He might not be cash-game material, but he’s well worth a spin the large GPP.
Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. BOS) – At least Big Papi will be muted. Rodon has been very effective in three of his five starts this season, but the Red Sox present a new challenge for the southpaw. His toughest matchup was in his last start, at Baltimore, and Rodon responded with seven innings of an 8:1 K:BB ratio yet coughed up six runs (four earned) in the process. It was the only tough offense that he had faced this season, and now Rodon gets another shot to prove his mettle.
Hector Santiago LAA (at MIL)
Anibal Sanchez DET (at CLE)
Sean Manaea OAK (vs. SEA)
Tyler Chatwood COL (at SD) – It’s easy to write off any Colorado pitcher, even when pitching on the road, and I have recommended against such things (ie sign Rockies on the road) in the past. However, I think that he warrants some consideration after 19.2 innings with just one earned run allowed in 2016 this season.
Jhoulys Chacin ATL (at NYM)
Kris Medlen KC (vs. WAS)
Alex Wood LAD (at TB) – One can just cut+paste my comment from yesterday, because the summary is the same: Tampa Bay rock southpaws. Sure, Scott Kazmir went into the seventh yesterday, “only” gave up four earned runs and struck out nine batters, but that’s probably a best-case scenario for Wood.
Cesar Vargas SD (vs. COL)
Rubby De La Rosa ARI (at MIA) – I put this guy near the bottom of the rankings for his last turn and he responded with seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, two walks allowed and just two hits against the mighty Cardinals. It was a performance to watch De La Rosa rise up fantasy rankings, but his stay might be limited.
Mike Leake STL (vs. PHI) – His opponent is the only thing is keeping Leake from ranking much lower.
Phil Hughes MIN (at HOU)
Colby Lewis TEX (at TOR) – Maybe I should wait for Edwin to start hitting and Tulo to show some consistency before giving so much credit to the Jays’ offense. Nah.
Mike Fiers HOU (vs. MIN)
Juan Nicasio PIT (vs. CHC)
Jake Peavy SF (at CIN)
Clay Buchholz BOS (at CHW)
Dan Straily CIN (vs. SF)
Tyler Wilson BAL (vs. NYY)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. LAA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
CC Sabathia NYY (at BAL)
Adam Morgan PHI (at STL)
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