Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 28th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton | SEA | HOU | 176.0 | 3.89 | 3.98 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 20.50% | 6.8% | 0.82 | 1.52 |
| Fister | HOU | SEA | 277.0 | 4.35 | 4.81 | 1.40 | 58.3% | 14.40% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Miller | ARI | WAS | 295.1 | 4.27 | 4.48 | 1.40 | 21.1% | 18.30% | 8.7% | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | ARI | 344.1 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 1.36 | 46.7% | 22.40% | 8.3% | 0.71 | 1.76 |
| Buchholz | BOS | NYY | 239.2 | 4.28 | 4.31 | 1.31 | 33.3% | 18.80% | 7.3% | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Mitchell | NYY | BOS | 41.2 | 5.62 | 4.21 | 1.75 | 0.0% | 18.20% | 9.6% | 1.08 | 1.86 |
| Arrieta | CHC | PIT | 414.1 | 2.30 | 3.31 | 0.95 | 50.0% | 25.50% | 7.5% | 0.54 | 2.17 |
| Taillon | PIT | CHC | 93.0 | 3.39 | 3.59 | 1.14 | 0.0% | 19.80% | 3.7% | 1.06 | 2.07 |
| Tillman | BAL | TOR | 337.2 | 4.37 | 4.61 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 18.00% | 8.7% | 1.04 | 1.16 |
| Liriano | TOR | BAL | 337.1 | 4.14 | 3.90 | 1.35 | 12.5% | 24.60% | 10.5% | 1.09 | 1.85 |
| McAllister | CLE | DET | 117.1 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 26.00% | 8.3% | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Fulmer | DET | CLE | 148.2 | 3.03 | 4.09 | 1.08 | 0.0% | 20.00% | 6.5% | 0.97 | 1.53 |
| Lugo | NYM | MIA | 53.2 | 2.35 | 4.44 | 1.04 | 0.0% | 18.10% | 7.4% | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| Urena | MIA | NYM | 137.1 | 5.44 | 4.91 | 1.48 | 0.0% | 13.30% | 8.4% | 0.85 | 1.56 |
| Morgan | PHI | ATL | 187.2 | 5.04 | 4.58 | 1.36 | 0.0% | 16.30% | 5.2% | 1.68 | 0.80 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | PHI | 205.0 | 4.96 | 4.18 | 1.44 | 0.0% | 20.20% | 6.8% | 1.54 | 0.96 |
| Santana | MIN | KCR | 278.1 | 3.62 | 4.35 | 1.25 | 38.9% | 19.00% | 7.3% | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| Vargas | KCR | MIN | 46.0 | 3.91 | 4.79 | 1.33 | 68.4% | 14.30% | 6.6% | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Anderson | MIL | TEX | 293.2 | 4.38 | 4.47 | 1.33 | 40.0% | 18.00% | 7.3% | 1.35 | 1.05 |
| Hamels | TEX | MIL | 399.0 | 3.54 | 3.72 | 1.25 | 58.8% | 24.00% | 8.2% | 1.02 | 1.57 |
| Snell | TBR | CWS | 81.1 | 3.87 | 4.60 | 1.65 | 0.0% | 23.90% | 12.7% | 0.55 | 1.01 |
| Gonzalez | CWS | TBR | 267.0 | 4.42 | 4.57 | 1.34 | 40.0% | 17.30% | 7.6% | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| Desclafani | CIN | STL | 296.0 | 3.71 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 20.10% | 6.5% | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| Leake | STL | CIN | 360.1 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 1.22 | 45.0% | 15.90% | 5.1% | 1.05 | 2.02 |
| Gray | OAK | LAA | 324.0 | 3.81 | 4.00 | 1.23 | 60.0% | 19.50% | 7.5% | 0.97 | 1.82 |
| Meyer | LAA | OAK | 18.2 | 7.23 | 5.10 | 1.93 | 0.0% | 25.30% | 17.6% | 2.41 | 0.72 |
| De Leon | LAD | SDP | 14.2 | 5.52 | 4.04 | 1.30 | 0.0% | 21.50% | 6.2% | 2.45 | 1.00 |
| Perdomo | SDP | LAD | 134.2 | 5.68 | 4.01 | 1.63 | 0.0% | 16.50% | 7.3% | 1.20 | 2.87 |
| Chatwood | COL | SFG | 144.0 | 4.13 | 4.70 | 1.41 | 25.0% | 16.70% | 10.4% | 0.88 | 2.23 |
| Samardzija | SFG | COL | 404.1 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 18.30% | 6.0% | 1.18 | 1.15 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at PIT) – The biggest risk in rostering Arrieta today might be that the Cubs will have a quick hook in order to preserve his arm for the playoffs, cutting his fantasy points short in the process. The team has little to gain from extending Arrieta unnecessarily and they might pull the same trick that they did last night with John Lackey, who was taken out after 5.0 frames despite a solid performance, essentially assuring that he pitched enough innings to get the W and then taking the slow walk to the mound. Arrieta is coming off his best start in months, with seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals, featuring 10 strikeouts and just one walk. It was the first time in seven starts that he had walked fewer than two batters, and it was the first time since mid-June that he had pulled double-digit strikeouts out of his hat.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. MIL) – Hamels rebounded from his roughest stretch of the season to blank the A’s over 7.0 innings in his last start, a week after Oakland had put Hamels into the hurt locker with six runs and ten baserunners (including two home runs) over 6.0 innings. One start does not a hot streak make, so Hamels is not yet out of the woods and there’s certainly risk in enlisting his services, but the southpaw has the pleasure of facing the strikeout-laden lineup of the Brewers thanks to interleague play, The top of the Raise pile is rarely populated by a player in such a volatile context, but his upside floats Hamels’ daily value near the top of slate.
Ervin Santana MIN (at KC) – Santana is coming off a rough game against the Tigers, in which he gave up four runs – though only two were earned – with nine baserunners (including two home runs) in 6.0 innings. He also walked four batters in the outing, which is just the second time this season in 29 starts that he gave away that many free passes, though he has walked two or batters in each of his last six starts and kicked off the run with a five-walk performance against the Blue Jays at the end of August. He has countered the extra walks with low hit counts, and over the last four contests Santana has given up just 15 hits in 24.0 innings.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. ARI) – The top of the pitcher pool thins out quickly, and Gio clears the bar for inclusion in the Raise tier due mostly to the lack of viable alternatives. The southpaw’s ERA is on a five-year trend of incline, having shot up from his 2.89 ,arl of 2012 (a season in which he won 21 games) to the atrocious 4.51 ERA of 2016, and this has occurred despite his walk rate tumbling to a career-low 2.9 BB/9 while his strikeouts have held firm with career rates on a per-inning basis. The problem has been homers, as Gio has roughly doubled the frequency of bombs allowed and has given up more jacks this season (19) than any other year of his major league career.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton | 0.380 | 4.80 | 0.292 | 3.70 | 0.244 | 0.745 | 0.325 | 3.45 | 0.268 | 93.06 | 20.5% |
| Fister | 0.365 | 5.04 | 0.307 | 3.60 | 0.251 | 0.740 | 0.300 | 4.68 | 0.277 | 82.73 | 14.4% |
| Miller | 0.355 | 4.70 | 0.285 | 3.83 | 0.251 | 0.729 | 0.308 | 3.96 | 0.262 | 94.43 | 18.3% |
| Gonzalez | 0.280 | 3.86 | 0.322 | 4.21 | 0.270 | 0.784 | 0.325 | 3.41 | 0.258 | 96.26 | 22.4% |
| Buchholz | 0.318 | 4.26 | 0.313 | 4.30 | 0.250 | 0.733 | 0.300 | 4.07 | 0.259 | 70.91 | 18.8% |
| Mitchell | 0.327 | 4.42 | 0.384 | 6.56 | 0.275 | 0.780 | 0.360 | 4.48 | 0.305 | 0.00 | 18.2% |
| Arrieta | 0.232 | 2.08 | 0.245 | 2.50 | 0.259 | 0.728 | 0.237 | 2.89 | 0.184 | 0.00 | 25.5% |
| Taillon | 0.301 | 2.53 | 0.306 | 4.24 | 0.248 | 0.739 | 0.298 | 3.63 | 0.258 | 85.81 | 19.8% |
| Tillman | 0.308 | 3.63 | 0.335 | 5.05 | 0.257 | 0.774 | 0.284 | 4.33 | 0.249 | 97.02 | 18.0% |
| Liriano | 0.300 | 3.74 | 0.315 | 4.25 | 0.237 | 0.676 | 0.294 | 4.08 | 0.235 | 92.87 | 24.6% |
| McAllister | 0.287 | 2.75 | 0.340 | 3.79 | 0.267 | 0.746 | 0.336 | 3.52 | 0.259 | 18.68 | 26.0% |
| Fulmer | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.294 | 3.52 | 0.256 | 0.743 | 0.255 | 3.89 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| Lugo | 0.287 | 2.86 | 0.253 | 1.99 | 0.261 | 0.700 | 0.235 | 3.77 | 0.204 | 0.01 | 18.1% |
| Urena | 0.351 | 5.86 | 0.321 | 5.05 | 0.242 | 0.712 | 0.306 | 4.50 | 0.277 | 0.00 | 13.3% |
| Morgan | 0.285 | 3.40 | 0.370 | 5.55 | 0.240 | 0.653 | 0.302 | 4.94 | 0.282 | 0.00 | 16.3% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.367 | 5.15 | 0.340 | 4.80 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.325 | 4.61 | 0.282 | 0.00 | 20.2% |
| Santana | 0.313 | 3.76 | 0.297 | 3.48 | 0.261 | 0.716 | 0.286 | 3.95 | 0.247 | 98.44 | 19.0% |
| Vargas | 0.337 | 6.00 | 0.306 | 3.18 | 0.259 | 0.744 | 0.289 | 4.24 | 0.264 | 73.90 | 14.3% |
| Anderson | 0.312 | 3.97 | 0.355 | 4.73 | 0.260 | 0.749 | 0.294 | 4.60 | 0.264 | 87.86 | 18.0% |
| Hamels | 0.279 | 2.50 | 0.306 | 3.83 | 0.244 | 0.720 | 0.295 | 3.75 | 0.238 | 102.90 | 24.0% |
| Snell | 0.288 | 2.50 | 0.341 | 4.26 | 0.254 | 0.697 | 0.358 | 3.51 | 0.270 | 93.29 | 23.9% |
| Gonzalez | 0.330 | 3.78 | 0.320 | 5.03 | 0.245 | 0.721 | 0.295 | 4.43 | 0.262 | 90.60 | 17.3% |
| Desclafani | 0.349 | 4.47 | 0.280 | 2.87 | 0.258 | 0.755 | 0.310 | 3.76 | 0.262 | 95.84 | 20.1% |
| Leake | 0.317 | 4.19 | 0.300 | 4.00 | 0.253 | 0.718 | 0.286 | 4.05 | 0.259 | 90.50 | 15.9% |
| Gray | 0.283 | 3.31 | 0.308 | 4.32 | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.279 | 3.90 | 0.241 | 96.29 | 19.5% |
| Meyer | 0.367 | 6.35 | 0.250 | 0.707 | 0.319 | 6.73 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 25.3% | ||
| De Leon | 0.237 | 0.682 | 0.268 | 6.00 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 21.5% | ||||
| Perdomo | 0.358 | 6.28 | 0.361 | 5.18 | 0.253 | 0.748 | 0.354 | 4.54 | 0.311 | 0.00 | 16.5% |
| Chatwood | 0.330 | 4.73 | 0.314 | 3.52 | 0.262 | 0.734 | 0.289 | 4.41 | 0.253 | 93.68 | 16.7% |
| Samardzija | 0.349 | 5.44 | 0.290 | 3.62 | 0.274 | 0.790 | 0.292 | 4.16 | 0.258 | 102.11 | 18.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. CHC) – Despite the thin layer of talent at the Raise level, there are a number of pitchers at the top of the Call list who qualify near the threshold. Taillon might clear that bar if he weren’t facing the mighty Cubs, and his best bet might be that the Cubs decide to keep resting some of their starters since they’ve already clinched the division, penciling in a subpar lineup for today’s game. If he had enough innings under his belt to qualify, then Taillon would tie with Rick Porcello for the majors’ second-lowest walk rate, checking in at 3.5-percent this season, and the low amount of walks has helped to keep the bases clear so that half of the 12 home runs that Taillon has allowed have been solo shots.
Michael Fulmer DET (vs. CLE) – The Indians have one of the most potent offenses in baseball, but if they decide to rest all of their starters for a second consecutive day, then Fulmer will benefit from facing a lineup full of scrubs, just as the one that got crushed by Justin Verlander yesterday. Fulmer is coming off of one of his high-strikeout spikes, striking out nine Royals in 7.0 frames of one-run baseball. It was the first time that he had whiffed more than five batters since mid-August, and such polarizing K counts have become par for the course for Fulmer this season. He has struck out nine or more batters in four of his 25 starts this season, but has punched out five or fewer batters in 16 of his other 21 turns.
Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at STL) – DeSclafani has endured a rough couple of starts, giving up a total of 11 runs (nine earned) over 10.0 innings against the mediocre offenses of the Brewers and Pirates. He failed to top four strikeouts in either outing, despite the fact that he was facing the most strikeout-prone lineup in baseball (Milwaukee) in one of the outings. He has given up at least one home run in all four of his September starts, and he has tied his season-high in each of the last two contests with three free passes apiece. He gets a tougher challenge tonight against the Cardinals, a team that he limited to two runs over seven innings earlier this month, but with two homers allowed and just three strikeouts on the day, things could have been worse.
Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. COL) – Samardzija has lopped more than a run off his ERA from last season, something that is at least partially attributable to the move from playing his home games in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular to his current home of ATT Park, as the Shark has maintained roughly the same rates of strikeouts, walks and homers as last season, but his hit rate has dropped precipitously in his first season by the bay. Samardzija has been very effective over the last two starts, giving up just one run combined over 13.2 innings against the widely disparate offenses of the Cardinals and Padres. His San Diego outing was particularly impressive, with nine strikeouts against zero walks and with just four hits allowed over 7.0 innings, and though the weak Padre offense likely contributed to the impressive outing, it’s also worth noting that the same offense had tagged the Shark with four runs on eight hits just two games prior.
Jose De Leon LAD (at SD) – De Leon would rank much higher on this list of he were guaranteed to throw 100 pitches tonight, but the young right-hander has been held at 86 pitches or fewer in each of his three major league starts and is likely to be on another short leash tonight. He was given the quick hook in his last outing due to poor performance rather than a restricted workload, as De Leon coughed up six runs (four earned) on seven hits and two walks in just 3.2 innings against the Diamondbacks. He has huge strikeout upside, as evidenced by the nine punchouts over 6.0 frames of his debut, but DFS rewards K counts rather than K rates, and De Leon is likely to disappoint in the former category even if the latter holds solid.
Francisco Liriano TOR (vs. BAL) – From 2013 to ‘15, Liriano compiled an impressive 3.23 ERA in 510 combined innings with the Pirates, with 9.6 K/9 and allowing just 7.4 H/9 over that stretch. He then got torched for most of this season, a performance that may have prompted his trade out of Pittsburgh, but since the deal Liriano has largely reverted to his old self with the Blue Jays. He has a 3.35 ERA in 43 innings with Toronto, and though his strikeout rate has fallen short of peak, it has remained a useful 8.8 K/9. The Orioles lose much of their offensive luster when facing left-handers, an aspect that could play into Liriano’s favor as the showdown in the AL East comes down to the wire.
Blake Snell TB (at CHW)
Chris Tillman BAL (at TOR)
Miguel Gonzalez CHW (vs. TB)
Mike Leake STL (vs. CIN)
Tyler Chatwood COL (at SF)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. PHI)
Seth Lugo NYM (at MIA)
Adam Morgan PHI (at ATL)
Clay Buchholz BOS (at NYY)
Chase Anderson MIL (at TEX)
Jason Vargas KC (vs. MIN)
Zach McAllister CLE (at DET)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Luis Perdomo SD (vs. LAD)
Sonny Gray OAK (at LAA) – The A’s are bringing Gray back for a cameo performance at the end of a lost season for the right-hander. Between his horrific performance this season and the strong likelihood that Gray will be on a very strict pitch count in tonight’s game, investing in Gray’s services has a low probability of profit.
Jose Urena MIA (vs. NYM)
Alex Meyer LAA (vs. OAK)
Shelby Miller ARI (at WAS)
Bryan Mitchell NYY (vs. BOS)
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