MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, July 29
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, July 29th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
It’s entirely too hot to be having day baseball games in most parts of the US right now, so we have an unusually large 13-game MLB slate on tap for Saturday night. As is the case with most slates this size, there’s a little bit of something for everybody. The pitching pool isn’t nearly as deep as the one we had last night, however, which means ownership could congregate around a few of the higher-priced options in “safer” spots. There’s a ton of offense out there to feel good about as a result, headlined once again by the A’s-Rockies clash at Coors Field.
There’s a lot to break down ahead of this one, so let’s hop right in and identify the best MLB DFS picks for Saturday’s main slate.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CHC-STL comes in with a straight ORANGE tag from Kevin Roth, which makes it the riskiest game of the slate as of early this morning. Roth says a late start is very likely here with storms popping around first pitch. A PPD is a potential outcome.
- MIN-KC and WAS-NYM have less risk with both listed as YELLOW. There’s late start potential in New York, while there’s a chance KC gets clipped by one of the many storms moving through the area this afternoon/evening. Both games feature solid hitting weather if they’re good to go.
- PHI-PIT, NYY-BAL, MIL-ATL, and OAK-COL are all mixed versions of YELLOW and GREEN. There’s a chance for a late start or an early delay in Atlanta and Pittsburgh, while Roth expects rain to have cleared by game time in both Baltimore and Denver.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Giants are expected to use Ryan Walker as an opener on Saturday with Anthony DeSclafani likely to pitch in long relief against the Red Sox. No “probable long reliever” is ever guaranteed to get into a game in these situations, to be aware of the risk when you’re building lineups.
- The White Sox will reinstate Mike Clevinger from their injured list to start tonight at home in a #RevengeGame against Cleveland. Clevinger has been shelved since the middle of June with a biceps problem, and he completed a 4-inning simulated game earlier in the week. We have him projected to throw 70 pitches in his return, per our PlateIQ projections.
- Brandon Pfaadt pitched well enough last weekend against the Reds to earn a second straight turn in the rotation tonight at home against the Mariners. The rookie delivered his first MLB quality start last time out, though the next time he tops 90 pitches at this level will be the first.
- Aaron Judge returned last after missing nearly 2 months with a toe injury. He went 0-1 with 3 walks against Grayson Rodriguez and friends in yesterday’s game. Oswald Peraza was sent back down to the minors to make room on the roster.
- Byron Buxton should return to the Twins’ lineup tonight against Jordan Lyles after getting the night off yesterday. Christian Vazquez is also projected to start behind the plate after Ryan Jeffers got the nod on Friday.
- Yandy Diaz returned to the Rays’ lineup last night after missing some time with a groin injury. He’s projected to lead off for TB tonight in Houston against Hunter Brown.
- C.J. Cron was back in the Rockies’ lineup last night after missing nearly a week with a sore lower back.
- The Rangers say Jonah Heim will be sidelined for quite a while with a left wrist tendon strain. If he doesn’t see much improvement or can’t play through the pain, he may opt for season-ending surgery. Mitch Garver and Sam Huff will handle the Rangers’ catching duties in the interim.
- Willson Contreras served as the Cardinals’ DH last night after leaving Thursday’s game with a head laceration. We have him projected to catch tonight, which would send Andrew Knizner back to the bench.
- James Outman, David Peralta, and Jason Heyward are all projected to return to the Dodgers’ starting lineup tonight against RHP Luke Weaver after they all started last night’s game on the bench against lefty Brandon Williamson. Enrique Hernandez, Miguel Rojas, and Chris Taylor could come off the bench tonight, while we have Amed Rosario projected to start at shortstop for the second straight game.
- Mauricio Dubon and Yainer Diaz have been relegated to reserve roles since Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez returned to the Astros’ lineup earlier in the week. Diaz in particular will find playing time hard to come by with Martin Maldonado entrenched as the everyday catcher.
- LaMonte Wade missed last night’s game for the Giants with back tightness, though we do have him projected to bat 9th tonight against James Paxton.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Luke Maile are in the Reds’ projected starting lineup tonight against right-hander Emmet Sheehan. Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson are candidates to head to the bench.
- The Royals put Nick Pratto on the IL yesterday with a groin strain, with Samad Taylor coming up to fill his vacated roster spot.
- Paul Blackburn and Chris Flexen are the projected starting pitchers at Coors tonight, so it’s no surprise to see the Rockies and A’s atop the list of stacking options once again. These are still bad offenses overall, of course, and the slate is big enough to where I don’t expect overwhelmingly high ownership here. As was the case last night, the Dodgers and Twins both grade out well as stacks against vulnerable pitchers in Luke Weaver and Jordan Lyles. The Guardians came up small yesterday, but they’re solid bounce-back candidates tonight against Clevinger in the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- As mentioned, we’re not as rich with great pitching options tonight. James Paxton ($10,400) and Bailey Ober ($10,200) aren’t the most comfortable premium arms, though I much prefer the spot for Paxton if I’m paying all the way up. Aaron Nola ($9,900) figures to be the chalkiest option of the bunch in a plus matchup against Pittsburgh, followed by Yu Darvish ($9,800, #Revenge) at home against Texas.
- The pitcher currently pulling the most ownership on FanDuel is Hunter Brown ($8,500) at home against a Rays offense that’s struggled mightily over the last month. Brown is a nice combination of strikeouts and groundballs, and the savings are useful. Both rookie pitchers in the Mariners-DBax clash are worth a look. Bryan Woo ($8,300) is the more established of the two, though Brandon Pfaadt ($6,200) is incredibly cheap on FD.
- Blackburn isn’t a guy who yields a ton of power (5 HR, 6% barrels), but he has an ERA north of 5 and he’s getting a considerable park downgrade going into Colorado. The Rockies are relatively expensive on FanDuel, but I like the matchup here against a right-hander with a career 16.7% K rate. Blackburn also isn’t overly splitsy. C.J. Cron ($4,000), Ryan McMahon ($3,700), and Randal Grichuk ($3,400) are the best hitters Colorado has to offer, while Ezequiel Tovar ($3,300) and Nolan Jones ($3,600) are quietly enjoying productive seasons.
- The A’s were on the winning side of this matchup last night, and Flexen is even worse at missing bats than Blackburn. That’s not a recipe for success in this ballpark. Everyone has done damage against Flexen, but his career numbers are worse versus right-handed hitters. Oakland doesn’t have much to fear from the right side, so we’ll call Zack Gelof ($3,400) and Shea Langeliers ($3,100) the headliners at reasonable salaries. I’m certainly not afraid to attack Flexen with LHBs. Seth Brown ($3,000) and JJ Bleday ($3,200) are Oakland’s chief power threats. Jace Peterson ($2,900), Tony Kemp ($2,900), and Tyler Soderstrom ($3,000) are all solid values.
- If you have some money to play with, you can always stack the Dodgers. Their 6.24 total is actually higher than both Coors teams, and Weaver has allowed 20 homers through just 17 games on the season with particularly poor numbers versus RHBs (.432 wOBA, 13 HR). JD Martinez (20.6%) and Max Muncy (22.1%) have cartoonishly high barrel rates against right-handers this season, while Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and James Outman are all in double figures. Even Jason Heyward (8.4%) is doing damage. There is pinch-hit risk with Heyward, Peralta, and Outman with several RHBs lurking on the bench.
- The Mets are worth a shout given their 5.31 implied run total against human punching bag Patrick Corbin. Corbin’s skills have diminished considerably over the years, and he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the league against righties. Pete Alonso ($3,900) couldn’t ask for a better matchup, while Tommy Pham, Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, and even Brett Baty have impressive batted ball data versus LHPs on the season.
- You can easily argue Francisco Alvarez has been the Mets’ best hitter this season outside of Alonso. His 15.4% barrel rate versus lefties is the second-best mark on the team behind Pham’s, though he’s been the victim of some unfortunately low BABIP. A matchup with Corbin is a perfect get-right spot for him, and our projections love him. As a result, I’ll be taking the Mets’ backstop to total more than 6.5 fantasy points in this one on Underdog. If you’re new to the site, be sure to use our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit, up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Twins stackers likely weren’t too impressed by their output on Friday, but today is a new day. Lyles has already allowed 22 home runs this year, and the Twins’ projected lineup owns a collective barrel rate of over 12% against right-handed pitching. Nobody in the lineup will cost you more than $3,400, which makes this one of the better value stacks around the industry. Max Kepler ($2,800), Carlos Correa ($2,900), Alex Kirilloff ($3,100), and Jorge Polanco ($3,000) project very well for the dollar.
- The pitching looks a little different on DK, where Nola ($11,000) is lapping the field in terms of salary. He doesn’t project worlds better than Darvish ($9,300) at a considerable discount, though Nola does have the more favorable matchup on paper. Brown ($8,800) grades out well in all formats, while Paxton ($9,900) is more of a GPP option given the salaries. I’ll again chase savings with Pfaadt, who finally looked like the top prospect he’s supposed to be in his most recent outing.
- The A’s are still too cheap on aggregate for a team playing in Colorado, with Zack Gelof ($4,500) being the only hitter in the lineup that’ll run you more than $4,000. Brown ($3,800) and Bleday ($3,400) are core pieces in any stack, while Cody Thomas ($2,800) is a particularly solid value. Brenton Doyle ($3,000) is the best point-per-dollar play on the Rockies’ side of things, though there’s still no hitter in this lineup north of $5,000.
- The Cubs have been swinging hot bats of late, and they’ll take their hacks against the struggling Adam Wainwright tonight in steamy St. Louis. Waino didn’t pitch poorly in his first outing off the injured list a few days ago, but this is still a 41-year-old with a SIERA pushing 6 on the year. Cody Bellinger still has some power in his bat, but his recent hot run looks a little fluky given his weak 3.6% barrel rate and 32.9% hard-hit rate. Mike Tauchman ($3,400), Ian Happ ($3,300), and Seiya Suzuki ($3,100) are the standout values, while Christopher Morel ($5,000) looks better against low-strikeout pitchers.
- The Braves will get their second look at old friend Julio Teheran in less than a week. The veteran surprisingly stifled this potent offense in Milwaukee, but there’s nothing about his underlying numbers that leads me to believe he’ll do it again tonight. You’ll have to make some sacrifices elsewhere in order to afford guys like Ronald Acuna ($6,600), Matt Olson ($6,400), Austin Riley ($6,000), and Ozzie Albies ($5,600), but they’re all projecting for single-digit ownership as a result.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck tonight!