MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 19)
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, April 19th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got a nice 10-game MLB DFS slate on tap for Friday that features the return of Coors Field. Huzzah! Sounds like a great way to spend a Friday night. One of the best things about Friday – in my opinion – is that it’s followed immediately by Saturday, and then Sunday. Has anyone ever noticed this before?
This looks like one of the richest pitching slates we’ve had in a while, which could cause hitting ownership to congregate around the SEA/COL Coors Field extravaganza. We shall see. In the meantime, let’s get a bird’s-eye view of this 10-gamer on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Roth’s unnamed meteorological fill-in – Shadow Roth? – has the Coors game listed as YELLOW with a chance of rain around the scheduled start time. Temps will also be in the 40s, though it’s still the best hitting environment on the board by a huge margin because it’s Colorado, of course.
- Every other game is GREEN, so doesn’t sound like any postponements are in the offing. Temperatures will also be in the 40s for DET/MIN, though the game features winds howling out to center at up to 30 MPH. Quick showers in New York are unlikely to put TB/NYY in peril.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Jordan Montgomery is set to make his season debut for the Diamondbacks after signing with the team late in Spring Training. The veteran lefty has never been a major source of strikeouts, and he threw 71 pitches in his final minor league tune-up outing. Monty is also $9,200 on DraftKings for some reason, which makes him a fairly easy fade unless you’re taking a flier in MME situations.
- Speaking of late signings, Blake Snell will make his 3rd start for the Giants on the other side of that game. He has yet to top 80 pitches in either of his first 2 starts, though the quick hook in his most recent outing was likely due to his ineffectiveness. I don’t think 90 pitches for Snell is outside the realm of possibility, but Arizona is an extremely low-strikeout lineup vs. LHP (17.9% since the start of 2023).
- Brendan Rodgers hasn’t started any of the last 3 games due to illness, though he did pinch-run on Wednesday. We’re currently projecting Rodgers to return to Colorado’s lineup against Emerson Hancock, hitting 6th. Kris Bryant landed on the IL with his latest back malady, with Sean Bouchard coming up from the minors to take his place on the roster.
- Ozzie Albies is on the IL for the Braves after getting hit in the toe by a pitch earlier in the week. He’s expected to miss 2-3 weeks. Angels legend David Fletcher is projected to start at the keystone and hit 9th against Andrew Heaney and the Rangers.
- Jake Cronenworth has been hobbled by a sore calf over the past few days, which puts his status for tonight’s game at home against the Blue Jays into question. If he plays, he’ll presumably slot into his standard No. 3 spot in the order. Matthew Batten is the likely replacement at first base if the Crone Zone needs another day.
- The Royals are finally expected to activate Michael Massey from the injured list ahead of tonight’s contest against the O’s at home. Nick Loftin was shipped back down to the minors yesterday, and we have Massey slotted into the Royals’ No. 7 slot tonight.
- Brett Baty has been dealing with a hamstring issue, though he’s hoping to avoid a trip to the IL. Baty is currently projected to hit 5th for the Mets tonight in LA against Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- This is a terrific pitching slate, headlined by Freddy Peralta ($9,500 at STL) and Joe Ryan ($8,900 vs. DET). Peralta has been close to untouchable (39% strikeouts, 3% walks, 1.81 SIERA) through 3 starts, and I’m not at all worried about his matchup in a pitcher-friendly park against a middling Cardinals offense. Peralta simply isn’t as expensive as he should be. Ryan looks like the co-headliner, as he’s inexplicably down to $8,900 despite the fact that he struck out 12 of these very same Detroit Tigers just a few days ago. Every Tiger in the projected lineup not named Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, and Colt Keith strikes out a ton, and Ryan threw 96 pitches in his last outing. This will be a chalky pairing and with good reason.
- There are enough viable alternatives to where you certainly don’t have to go all-in on Peralta/Ryan, especially if it’s going to attract significant ownership. Chris Sale ($9,400) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,600) figure to go overlooked at the high end of the salary spectrum, while we can get useful savings on Jack Flaherty ($7,700), Clarke Schmidt ($7,900), or even Kyle Gibson ($7,300). Blake Snell is the ultimate wild card, as usual, and I wouldn’t eliminate him from my pool in tournaments despite the rough start and rougher matchup against the D-backs. Punting with Yariel Rodriguez isn’t the craziest thing in the world either, as he’s just $5,000.
- The visitors in Coors Field tonight are the Mariners, so we can expect some ownership to congregate here. Seattle gets a massive park bump, and they’ll be facing the low-strikeout Dakota Hudson. Hudson does keep the ball on the ground, but the Seattle lineup is chock-full of fly-ball hitters, with the exception of Julio Rodriguez and Ty France. These bats didn’t really get priced up for the ballpark either. Cal Raleigh ($4,500) is going to be a staple in stacks with his power from the left side, while I wouldn’t say JP Crawford ($4,400), Mitch Haniger ($4,600), or Jorge Polanco ($5,000) are too expensive. Jonatan Clase ($2,900) will also be a very popular salary saver, especially in Mariner stacks.
- It’s a 10-game slate, so we don’t have to go too crazy with Coors. The Braves have a healthy 5.54 implied run total of their own against Andrew Heaney, a homer-prone lefty who’s struggled out of the gate early in the season. The absence of Albies waters the stack down a bit, but there’s still plenty of goodness here between Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Adam Duvall. Orlando Arcia is likely to get a boost into the No. 2 spot in the order as well. Atlanta is more expensive on aggregate than Seattle is, so I don’t think the Braves will be a particularly trendy target in GPPs.
- Might I interest you in some Orioles? Baltimore will take their hacks on the road against Alec Marsh, one of the weaker starters climbing the mound tonight. Marsh is a righty with a fly-ball lean, and his strikeout rate has dipped under 15% to begin 2024. Marsh’s splits aren’t too egregious, though his strikeout rate, ground-ball rate, and walk rate are all worse against lefties. We’re projecting 7 lefties in that Baltimore order, with Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg being the only righties. This is my favorite stack on the slate. Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser all have ISOs of .182 or better against RHP since the beginning of last season. Adley Rutschman helps you fill the tricky catcher spot, and Jackson Holliday remains affordable ($3,600).
- One offense I’d expect to go largely overlooked is the Blue Jays on the road in San Diego, where they’ll face Matt Waldron. Waldron’s knuckleball is a wrinkle most of these hitters won’t be used to dealing with, but he’s far from overpowering. Waldron has allowed a 10.3% barrel rate in the majors, and whatever ground-ball stuff he flashed at the lower levels hasn’t translated to the top tier. Toronto is off to another sluggish start, with Vladimir Guerrero (13%) being the only hitter in the lineup with a barrel rate above 7% on the season. Bo Bichette should round into form at some point, while George Springer and Justin Turner have long track records of success. For savings, all of Daulton Varsho, Cavan Biggio, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, and Davis Schneider are south of $4,000. Stacking the Blue Jays with expensive pitching combos is a viable route, and I doubt the masses will be flocking (ha!) their way.
- I suppose we should discuss the Dodgers. They’ve been a bit underwhelming of late, and they were particularly woeful on Wednesday afternoon when they were shut out (as chalk) by Jake Irvin and friends. Sean Manaea has gotten off to a solid start for the Mets, but we saw in his last outing that things can still go horribly wrong on occasion. The Dodgers have also seen plenty of Manaea over the years, and this is a park downgrade for him. The righty power bats – Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, Andy Pages – are the clear standouts, and we’ll likely see lower-than-usual ownership on Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy in lefty-lefty spots. LA still has an implied run total pushing 5, and Pages ($2,600) is the bat pulling the most projected ownership at around 8%.
- If you’re looking for value bats, I don’t mind getting to Pages ($2,600), Lawrence Butler ($2,100), Jonatan Clase ($2,900), Cedric Mullins ($3,800), Seth Brown ($3,100), Colt Keith ($2,600), Kevin Kiermaier ($2,100), or Ryan O’Hearn ($3,600).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
There’s a lot to like out there tonight, so it has the makings of a fun slate. Good luck!
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