MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/31/2022
Today we have a big main slate with 13 games on DK and 12 games on FD as DK is including game 2 of the MIN/DET doubleheader.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We do have some rain to worry about today as MIA/COL has a chance of being postponed if current models stay the same later of rain all night over Coors. For now I’m going to assume this game doesn’t play but if it does my favorite plays from each team are Jesus Sanchez and Charlie Blackmon. MIL/CHC is the next riskiest game but it should play with a slight chance of a late game delay but not enough to scare me off using bats here with 10-15mph winds blowing out. LAA/NYY, WAS/NYM, CIN/BOS, and SDP/STL all have similar risk levels at the moment but all are expected to play with no issues.
UPDATE: MIA/COL has been PPD
I already mentioned MIL/CHC having 10-15mph winds blowing out and other games with relevant wind are SDP/STL seeing 5-10mph out to left, PIT/LAD with 5-10mph out to right-center, HOU/OAK with 5-10mph out to right, & MIN/DET game 2 with 8-15mph wind blowing in. CHW/TOR, TBR/TEX, and ATL/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIL/CHC are +57.2% while total runs for SDP/STL are +19.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Tim Anderson landed on the IL with a groin strain so Yasmani Grandal will hit leadoff while Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert remain out but against Kevin Gausman I won’t be targeting any White Sox today. Carlos Correa tested positive for COVID yesterday so he will be out which leaves the Twins pretty thin for their doubleheader today with Polanco, Urshela, Arraez, and Gordon candidates to cover the SS spot as Royce Lewis is currently on the IL along with Robbie Grossman on the other side so we should see the debut of Kody Clemens at some point today. Tommy Pham is still out with left calf discomfort after his 3-game suspension after slapping Joc Pederson over fantasy football etiquette while Wander Franco is on the IL with a quad injury and Cody Bellinger is out with an adductor injury.
I love the hitting conditions for MIL and CHC stacks but Eric Lauer and Justin Steele have been very solid this year with Steele having the lone blowup game allowing 7 ER in his last start. I probably won’t do a full stack of either team in cash games but I really love the prices of Tyrone Taylor, Keston Hiura, Mike Brosseau, Christopher Morel, and Frank Schwindel for a couple mini stacks of each team. The Mets went off for 13 runs yesterday and are in another nice spot today against the lefty Corbin who has allowed 13 ER over his last 3 starts with just 11 total strikeouts in that span. Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso are one of my favorite stacks of the day and if you want a 4th Mets hitter I’d go with Mark Canha for around $3k on both sites hitting leadoff today. Some other stacks to consider are LAD, ATL, and BAL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Tyrone Taylor for $2,600 likely hitting cleanup in great hitting conditions and the platoon advantage against Steele and Taylor is swinging a hot bat with HR’s in his last two games and a .333 average over his last five games. Andrew McCutchen for $3,100 and Luis Urias for $3,400 are fine plays as well while Keston Hiura ($2,600) and Mike Brosseau ($2,300) are cheaper options to target and Christian Yelich ($3,700) could be low owned in the L/L matchup. On the other side I’m not too excited about the Cubs against Lauer but Christopher Morel ($2,600) and Frank Schwindel ($2,800) have really nice prices if you need some salary relief at those positions. I want some Dodgers exposure in cash and will start with Edwin Rios ($2,600) and Justin Turner ($3,000) likely hitting 5th and 6th and at least one of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, or Trea Turner depending on positional needs. Some other cheap FD bats to consider include Eduardo Escobar ($2,400), Jesse Winker ($2,700), Trey Mancini ($2,700), and Joey Votto ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings Tyrone Taylor is the first guy I’m locking in at $3,100 while McCutchen, Hiura, and Brosseau are all in play around $3.2k each. Morel and Schwindel are still in play for $3.4k each and the only Dodgers bat that I want to force in for the price is Edwin Rios at $3.9k. CIN/BOS doesn’t have the greatest hitting conditions with ~60 degree temps and the wind blowing in and Castillo/Wacha have been solid pitchers this year but if you need some salary relief I’d consider Nick Senzel ($2,400), Joey Votto for $3,700 or Alex Verdugo for $3,700 and Franchy Cordero hits low in the order but for $3k he is still a decent option. MIN/DET game 2 is only on DK’s main slate but there are some really cheap guys to consider in Kyle Garlick ($2,200), Harold Castro ($2,400), Spencer Torkelson ($2,500), and Jeimer Candelario ($2,700). Other cheap DK bats I’m looking at are Mark Canha ($3,000), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,800), and Anthony Santander ($3,400).
Kevin Gausman is looking like the clear SP1 on both sites at home against a White Sox lineup without Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Luis Robert. After Gausman I’d look at Cristian Javier, Frankie Montas, Julio Urias, Martin Perez, or Charlie Morton for my SP2 and for GPPs I like Jordan Montgomery, George Kirby, Lucas Giolito, and Blake Snell.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn