MLB First Look: Sunday, July 16th
The MLB First Look, complete with sortable odds, a pitcher breakdown, and team offense rankings, will help you get an early start on the upcoming slate.
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MLB Schedule & Vegas Lines
Away | Pitcher | Home | Pitcher | Vegas Line | Run Total | Ballpark | LHB Rating | RHB Rating | Time (ET) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays | Marco Estrada – R | at | Detroit Tigers | Anibal Sanchez – R | DET-118 | 10.0 | Comerica Park | 92 | 91 | 1:10 PM |
Washington Nationals | Tanner Roark – R | at | Cincinnati Reds | Homer Bailey – R | CIN-115 | 10.0 | Great American Park | 94 | 89 | 1:10 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers | Rich Hill – L | at | Miami Marlins | Chris O’Grady – L | LAD-155 | 9.0 | Marlins Park | 80 | 83 | 1:10 PM |
Colorado Rockies | Jeff Hoffman – R | at | New York Mets | Steven Matz – L | NYM-125 | 8.5 | Citi Field | 83 | 83 | 1:10 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks | Zack Godley – R | at | Atlanta Braves | Jaime Garcia – L | ATL-100 | 9.0 | SunTrust Park | 94 | 85 | 1:35 PM |
Chicago Cubs | Jose Quintana – L | at | Baltimore Orioles | Ubaldo Jimenez – R | CHC-130 | 10.5 | Camden Yards | 85 | 87 | 1:35 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals | Carlos Martinez – R | at | Pittsburgh Pirates | Trevor Williams – R | STL-119 | 8.5 | PNC Park | 85 | 80 | 1:35 PM |
Minnesota Twins | Kyle Gibson – R | at | Houston Astros | Mike Fiers – R | HOU-210 | 9.5 | Minute Maid Park | 83 | 82 | 2:10 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies | Jeremy Hellickson – R | at | Milwaukee Brewers | Matt Garza – R | MIL-150 | 9.5 | Miller Park | 99 | 88 | 2:10 PM |
Seattle Mariners | Andrew Moore – R | at | Chicago White Sox | Derek Holland – L | SEA-110 | 9.5 | U.S. Cellular Field | 100 | 85 | 2:10 PM |
Texas Rangers | Yu Darvish – R | at | Kansas City Royals | Ian Kennedy – R | TEX-124 | 8.5 | Kauffman Stadium | 75 | 82 | 2:15 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays | Chris Archer – R | at | LA Angels of Anaheim | Parker Bridwell – R | TB -150 | 9.0 | Angel Stadium | 90 | 88 | 3:37 PM |
Cleveland Indians | Trevor Bauer – R | at | Oakland Athletics | Sean Manaea – L | OAK-102 | 8.5 | O.co Coliseum | 82 | 84 | 4:05 PM |
San Francisco Giants | Jeff Samardzija – R | at | San Diego Padres | Trevor Cahill – R | SF -105 | 7.5 | Petco Park | 79 | 86 | 4:40 PM |
New York Yankees | CC Sabathia – L | at | Boston Red Sox | Rick Porcello – R | BOS-131 | 8.5 | Fenway Park | 79 | 88 | 8:05 PM |
Starting Pitchers
Pitcher | Team | Matchup | Opp. K% | Line | FD | DK | FDRFT | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | HC% | HR/FB | Time (ET) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Archer | TB | at LAA | 20.1% | -150 | $10,300 | $11,700 | $20,800 | 3.52 | 3.95 | 28.5% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 42.2% | 38.3% | 11.4% | 3:37 PM |
Yu Darvish | TEX | at KC | 20.8% | -124 | $9,900 | $11,300 | $22,400 | 3.95 | 3.49 | 25.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 40.3% | 33.0% | 13.2% | 2:15 PM |
Jeff Samardzija | SF | at SD | 26.1% | -105 | $9,200 | $9,500 | $18,000 | 3.26 | 4.58 | 26.2% | 2.9% | 10.5% | 43.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 4:40 PM |
Carlos Martinez | STL | at PIT | 18.7% | -119 | $9,100 | $10,800 | $20,700 | 3.87 | 3.40 | 26.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 49.0% | 34.0% | 14.6% | 1:35 PM |
Rich Hill | LAD | at MIA | 19.8% | -155 | $8,800 | $11,900 | $21,900 | 4.20 | 3.69 | 27.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 38.4% | 27.2% | 10.0% | 1:10 PM |
Trevor Cahill | SD | SF | 19.5% | 105 | $8,600 | $7,800 | $15,300 | 3.35 | 3.38 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 59.5% | 30.7% | 17.6% | 4:40 PM |
Zack Godley | ARI | at ATL | 19.5% | -100 | $8,500 | $8,700 | $16,000 | 3.67 | 2.58 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 59.5% | 29.8% | 10.0% | 1:35 PM |
Jose Quintana | CHC | at BAL | 25.2% | -130 | $8,500 | $9,000 | $16,800 | 4.15 | 4.49 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 42.9% | 31.7% | 12.8% | 1:35 PM |
Sean Manaea | OAK | CLE | 16.5% | -102 | $8,400 | $6,000 | $12,800 | 4.09 | 3.76 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 48.8% | 33.6% | 9.9% | 4:05 PM |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | at OAK | 25.4% | 102 | $8,300 | $7,100 | $14,400 | 3.88 | 5.24 | 25.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 47.3% | 37.6% | 17.1% | 4:05 PM |
Steven Matz | NYM | COL | 24.2% | -125 | $8,300 | $7,900 | $15,600 | 4.96 | 3.05 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 47.1% | 29.5% | 14.9% | 1:10 PM |
Mike Fiers | HOU | MIN | 22.3% | -210 | $8,100 | $7,300 | $15,000 | 4.45 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 47.6% | 30.0% | 20.2% | 2:10 PM |
Rick Porcello | BOS | NYY | 22.6% | -131 | $8,100 | $7,400 | N/A | 4.15 | 4.75 | 20.8% | 4.6% | 9.5% | 37.8% | 43.2% | 12.1% | 8:05 PM |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | at NYM | 19.1% | 125 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $15,300 | 4.30 | 4.15 | 21.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 39.8% | 35.2% | 7.4% | 1:10 PM |
Marco Estrada | TOR | at DET | 22.5% | 118 | $7,400 | $6,900 | N/A | 4.22 | 5.17 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 32.1% | 30.0% | 12.6% | 1:10 PM |
Andrew Moore | SEA | at CWS | 22.3% | -110 | $7,400 | $6,300 | $12,600 | 5.54 | 3.86 | 12.2% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 29.4% | 31.9% | 13.5% | 2:10 PM |
Ian Kennedy | KC | TEX | 24.0% | 124 | $7,400 | $8,400 | $15,200 | 4.77 | 4.45 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 38.9% | 38.8% | 14.4% | 2:15 PM |
Tanner Roark | WAS | at CIN | 20.8% | 115 | $7,300 | $6,100 | $13,200 | 4.66 | 5.27 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 46.2% | 29.7% | 13.3% | 1:10 PM |
Anibal Sanchez | DET | TOR | 20.7% | -118 | $7,200 | $6,700 | N/A | 4.05 | 5.89 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 36.3% | 38.9% | 16.9% | 1:10 PM |
CC Sabathia | NYY | at BOS | 16.1% | 131 | $7,200 | $7,300 | N/A | 4.52 | 3.81 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 49.4% | 34.3% | 12.5% | 8:05 PM |
Matt Garza | MIL | PHI | 23.9% | -150 | $7,200 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 4.65 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 45.8% | 34.1% | 10.4% | 2:10 PM |
Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | at MIL | 24.9% | 150 | $7,100 | $5,800 | $10,800 | 5.48 | 4.49 | 12.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 35.5% | 30.0% | 13.9% | 2:10 PM |
Trevor Williams | PIT | STL | 21.3% | 119 | $7,100 | $6,200 | $15,600 | 4.58 | 4.80 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 45.6% | 31.0% | 10.3% | 1:35 PM |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | CHC | 22.5% | 130 | $7,000 | $5,700 | $11,700 | 4.96 | 6.67 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 44.7% | 34.1% | 20.7% | 1:35 PM |
Jaime Garcia | ATL | ARI | 26.1% | 100 | $6,900 | $5,400 | $10,800 | 4.62 | 4.55 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 54.3% | 27.4% | 14.3% | 1:35 PM |
Parker Bridwell | LAA | TB | 24.6% | 150 | $6,900 | $5,200 | $8,800 | 5.24 | 3.24 | 13.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 40.2% | 40.7% | 17.1% | 3:37 PM |
Derek Holland | CWS | SEA | 18.6% | 110 | $6,600 | $4,700 | $9,600 | 4.86 | 5.01 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 39.4% | 38.3% | 17.1% | 2:10 PM |
Homer Bailey | CIN | WAS | 19.2% | -115 | $6,400 | $5,900 | $10,400 | 5.23 | 8.31 | 14.0% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 51.6% | 26.6% | 28.6% | 1:10 PM |
Kyle Gibson | MIN | at HOU | 17.4% | 210 | $5,600 | $4,500 | $11,200 | 5.32 | 6.31 | 13.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 50.7% | 38.6% | 21.1% | 2:10 PM |
Chris O’Grady | MIA | LAD | 22.2% | 155 | $5,500 | $4,600 | $9,200 | 5.59 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 17.6% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 1:10 PM |
Note: All statistics in the pitching table are from the 2017 season.
Offenses
Offense | IRT | RPG | +/- | Opp. Pitcher | L/R | P vs. LHB | P vs. RHB | T-wOBA | T-ISO | Time (ET) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs | 5.43 | 4.53 | 0.89 | Ubaldo Jimenez | RIGHT | 0.397 | 0.306 | 0.312 | 0.176 | 1:35 PM |
Houston Astros | 5.38 | 5.92 | -0.54 | Kyle Gibson | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.348 | 0.364 | 0.216 | 2:10 PM |
Detroit Tigers | 5.11 | 4.70 | 0.41 | Marco Estrada | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.322 | 0.318 | 0.161 | 1:10 PM |
Cincinnati Reds | 5.09 | 4.82 | 0.27 | Tanner Roark | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.282 | 0.331 | 0.191 | 1:10 PM |
Baltimore Orioles | 5.07 | 4.45 | 0.62 | Jose Quintana | LEFT | 0.281 | 0.310 | 0.308 | 0.156 | 1:35 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers | 5.04 | 4.96 | 0.09 | Jeremy Hellickson | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.301 | 0.331 | 0.198 | 2:10 PM |
Washington Nationals | 4.91 | 5.52 | -0.61 | Homer Bailey | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.398 | 0.344 | 0.191 | 1:10 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays | 4.89 | 4.16 | 0.73 | Anibal Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.377 | 0.313 | 0.170 | 1:10 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.82 | 5.14 | -0.32 | Chris O’Grady | LEFT | 0.367 | 0.233 | 0.349 | 0.210 | 1:10 PM |
Seattle Mariners | 4.81 | 4.79 | 0.02 | Derek Holland | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.365 | 0.311 | 0.127 | 2:10 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays | 4.79 | 4.76 | 0.04 | Parker Bridwell | RIGHT | 0.404 | 0.345 | 0.339 | 0.204 | 3:37 PM |
Chicago White Sox | 4.69 | 4.56 | 0.12 | Andrew Moore | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.306 | 0.306 | 0.156 | 2:10 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.51 | 5.01 | -0.51 | Jaime Garcia | LEFT | 0.306 | 0.335 | 0.284 | 0.153 | 1:35 PM |
Atlanta Braves | 4.49 | 4.66 | -0.16 | Zack Godley | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.287 | 0.311 | 0.144 | 1:35 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies | 4.46 | 3.82 | 0.64 | Matt Garza | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.309 | 0.300 | 0.143 | 2:10 PM |
Boston Red Sox | 4.43 | 4.84 | -0.41 | CC Sabathia | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.313 | 0.339 | 0.152 | 8:05 PM |
New York Mets | 4.40 | 4.72 | -0.32 | Jeff Hoffman | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.349 | 0.324 | 0.194 | 1:10 PM |
Texas Rangers | 4.39 | 5.05 | -0.65 | Ian Kennedy | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.304 | 0.326 | 0.201 | 2:15 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals | 4.36 | 4.57 | -0.20 | Trevor Williams | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.325 | 0.325 | 0.174 | 1:35 PM |
Oakland Athletics | 4.27 | 4.29 | -0.02 | Trevor Bauer | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.324 | 0.321 | 0.197 | 4:05 PM |
Cleveland Indians | 4.23 | 4.84 | -0.61 | Sean Manaea | LEFT | 0.221 | 0.318 | 0.330 | 0.160 | 4:05 PM |
LA Angels of Anaheim | 4.21 | 4.10 | 0.11 | Chris Archer | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.296 | 0.303 | 0.150 | 3:37 PM |
Miami Marlins | 4.18 | 4.71 | -0.53 | Rich Hill | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.254 | 0.328 | 0.146 | 1:10 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.14 | 4.25 | -0.11 | Carlos Martinez | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.239 | 0.307 | 0.148 | 1:35 PM |
Minnesota Twins | 4.12 | 4.58 | -0.46 | Mike Fiers | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.363 | 0.324 | 0.168 | 2:10 PM |
Kansas City Royals | 4.11 | 4.16 | -0.05 | Yu Darvish | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.277 | 0.304 | 0.166 | 2:15 PM |
Colorado Rockies | 4.10 | 5.07 | -0.96 | Steven Matz | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.296 | 0.333 | 0.178 | 1:10 PM |
New York Yankees | 4.07 | 5.55 | -1.48 | Rick Porcello | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.316 | 0.350 | 0.195 | 8:05 PM |
San Francisco Giants | 3.78 | 3.93 | -0.15 | Trevor Cahill | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.294 | 0.290 | 0.132 | 4:40 PM |
San Diego Padres | 3.72 | 3.55 | 0.17 | Jeff Samardzija | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.285 | 0.297 | 0.164 | 4:40 PM |
Note: All statistics in the team offense table are from the 2017, season with the exception of the pitcher splits by handedness. They are from the last two seasons combined.
First Look Legend
Term | Description |
---|---|
LHB Rating | The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters |
RHB Rating | The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters |
Opp. K% | Strikeout rate of the opposing offense against the handedness of the pitcher |
SIERA | Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average – A good predictor of future ERA |
ERA | Earned Run Average |
K% | Percentage of batters a pitcher strikes out |
BB% | Percentage of batters that a pitcher walks |
SS% | Swinging Strike Percentage |
GB% | Ground Ball Percentage |
HC% | Hard Contact Percentage |
HR/FB | Percentage of fly balls a pitcher gives up a home run |
IRT | Implied run total based on the Vegas line and over/under |
RPG | Average runs scored per game |
+/- | The difference between a team’s implied run total and their average runs scored per game |
P vs. LHB | The wOBA a pitcher allows to left-handed hitters |
P vs. RHB | The wOBA a pitcher allows to right-handed hitters |
T-wOBA | A team’s wOBA vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing |
T-ISO | A team’s ISO vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing |