MLB First Look: Sunday, July 16th

By Derek Farnsworth (Notorious), Last Updated 1 week ago

The MLB First Look, complete with sortable odds, a pitcher breakdown, and team offense rankings, will help you get an early start on the upcoming slate.

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MLB Schedule & Vegas Lines

Away Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Line Run Total Ballpark LHB Rating RHB Rating Time (ET)
Toronto Blue Jays Marco Estrada – R at Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez – R DET -118 10.0 Comerica Park 92 91 1:10 PM
Washington Nationals Tanner Roark – R at Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey – R CIN -115 10.0 Great American Park 94 89 1:10 PM
Los Angeles Dodgers Rich Hill – L at Miami Marlins Chris O’Grady – L LAD -155 9.0 Marlins Park 80 83 1:10 PM
Colorado Rockies Jeff Hoffman – R at New York Mets Steven Matz – L NYM -125 8.5 Citi Field 83 83 1:10 PM
Arizona Diamondbacks Zack Godley – R at Atlanta Braves Jaime Garcia – L ATL -100 9.0 SunTrust Park 94 85 1:35 PM
Chicago Cubs Jose Quintana – L at Baltimore Orioles Ubaldo Jimenez – R CHC -130 10.5 Camden Yards 85 87 1:35 PM
St. Louis Cardinals Carlos Martinez – R at Pittsburgh Pirates Trevor Williams – R STL -119 8.5 PNC Park 85 80 1:35 PM
Minnesota Twins Kyle Gibson – R at Houston Astros Mike Fiers – R HOU -210 9.5 Minute Maid Park 83 82 2:10 PM
Philadelphia Phillies Jeremy Hellickson – R at Milwaukee Brewers Matt Garza – R MIL -150 9.5 Miller Park 99 88 2:10 PM
Seattle Mariners Andrew Moore – R at Chicago White Sox Derek Holland – L SEA -110 9.5 U.S. Cellular Field 100 85 2:10 PM
Texas Rangers Yu Darvish – R at Kansas City Royals Ian Kennedy – R TEX -124 8.5 Kauffman Stadium 75 82 2:15 PM
Tampa Bay Rays Chris Archer – R at LA Angels of Anaheim Parker Bridwell – R TB -150 9.0 Angel Stadium 90 88 3:37 PM
Cleveland Indians Trevor Bauer – R at Oakland Athletics Sean Manaea – L OAK -102 8.5 O.co Coliseum 82 84 4:05 PM
San Francisco Giants Jeff Samardzija – R at San Diego Padres Trevor Cahill – R SF -105 7.5 Petco Park 79 86 4:40 PM
New York Yankees CC Sabathia – L at Boston Red Sox Rick Porcello – R BOS -131 8.5 Fenway Park 79 88 8:05 PM

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher Team Matchup Opp. K% Line FD DK FDRFT SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% HC% HR/FB Time (ET)
Chris Archer TB at LAA 20.1% -150 $10,300 $11,700 $20,800 3.52 3.95 28.5% 7.4% 13.2% 42.2% 38.3% 11.4% 3:37 PM
Yu Darvish TEX at KC 20.8% -124 $9,900 $11,300 $22,400 3.95 3.49 25.9% 8.5% 11.2% 40.3% 33.0% 13.2% 2:15 PM
Jeff Samardzija SF at SD 26.1% -105 $9,200 $9,500 $18,000 3.26 4.58 26.2% 2.9% 10.5% 43.2% 29.1% 16.7% 4:40 PM
Carlos Martinez STL at PIT 18.7% -119 $9,100 $10,800 $20,700 3.87 3.40 26.8% 9.4% 10.8% 49.0% 34.0% 14.6% 1:35 PM
Rich Hill LAD at MIA 19.8% -155 $8,800 $11,900 $21,900 4.20 3.69 27.3% 11.3% 10.5% 38.4% 27.2% 10.0% 1:10 PM
Trevor Cahill SD SF 19.5% 105 $8,600 $7,800 $15,300 3.35 3.38 29.7% 9.0% 13.6% 59.5% 30.7% 17.6% 4:40 PM
Zack Godley ARI at ATL 19.5% -100 $8,500 $8,700 $16,000 3.67 2.58 24.3% 7.8% 14.1% 59.5% 29.8% 10.0% 1:35 PM
Jose Quintana CHC at BAL 25.2% -130 $8,500 $9,000 $16,800 4.15 4.49 24.6% 9.0% 8.4% 42.9% 31.7% 12.8% 1:35 PM
Sean Manaea OAK CLE 16.5% -102 $8,400 $6,000 $12,800 4.09 3.76 24.0% 8.8% 13.5% 48.8% 33.6% 9.9% 4:05 PM
Trevor Bauer CLE at OAK 25.4% 102 $8,300 $7,100 $14,400 3.88 5.24 25.8% 8.5% 8.4% 47.3% 37.6% 17.1% 4:05 PM
Steven Matz NYM COL 24.2% -125 $8,300 $7,900 $15,600 4.96 3.05 14.8% 6.5% 6.2% 47.1% 29.5% 14.9% 1:10 PM
Mike Fiers HOU MIN 22.3% -210 $8,100 $7,300 $15,000 4.45 3.84 21.6% 9.2% 9.6% 47.6% 30.0% 20.2% 2:10 PM
Rick Porcello BOS NYY 22.6% -131 $8,100 $7,400 N/A 4.15 4.75 20.8% 4.6% 9.5% 37.8% 43.2% 12.1% 8:05 PM
Jeff Hoffman COL at NYM 19.1% 125 $7,500 $7,500 $15,300 4.30 4.15 21.5% 6.9% 8.8% 39.8% 35.2% 7.4% 1:10 PM
Marco Estrada TOR at DET 22.5% 118 $7,400 $6,900 N/A 4.22 5.17 24.9% 8.8% 11.7% 32.1% 30.0% 12.6% 1:10 PM
Andrew Moore SEA at CWS 22.3% -110 $7,400 $6,300 $12,600 5.54 3.86 12.2% 2.4% 8.3% 29.4% 31.9% 13.5% 2:10 PM
Ian Kennedy KC TEX 24.0% 124 $7,400 $8,400 $15,200 4.77 4.45 21.2% 10.1% 9.3% 38.9% 38.8% 14.4% 2:15 PM
Tanner Roark WAS at CIN 20.8% 115 $7,300 $6,100 $13,200 4.66 5.27 18.2% 8.2% 9.3% 46.2% 29.7% 13.3% 1:10 PM
Anibal Sanchez DET TOR 20.7% -118 $7,200 $6,700 N/A 4.05 5.89 22.1% 6.5% 9.0% 36.3% 38.9% 16.9% 1:10 PM
CC Sabathia NYY at BOS 16.1% 131 $7,200 $7,300 N/A 4.52 3.81 19.2% 8.2% 8.6% 49.4% 34.3% 12.5% 8:05 PM
Matt Garza MIL PHI 23.9% -150 $7,200 $7,000 $10,200 4.65 3.98 16.9% 6.3% 8.7% 45.8% 34.1% 10.4% 2:10 PM
Jeremy Hellickson PHI at MIL 24.9% 150 $7,100 $5,800 $10,800 5.48 4.49 12.4% 6.3% 8.1% 35.5% 30.0% 13.9% 2:10 PM
Trevor Williams PIT STL 21.3% 119 $7,100 $6,200 $15,600 4.58 4.80 16.8% 6.2% 8.7% 45.6% 31.0% 10.3% 1:35 PM
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL CHC 22.5% 130 $7,000 $5,700 $11,700 4.96 6.67 19.3% 11.2% 7.7% 44.7% 34.1% 20.7% 1:35 PM
Jaime Garcia ATL ARI 26.1% 100 $6,900 $5,400 $10,800 4.62 4.55 17.7% 8.8% 11.8% 54.3% 27.4% 14.3% 1:35 PM
Parker Bridwell LAA TB 24.6% 150 $6,900 $5,200 $8,800 5.24 3.24 13.7% 7.2% 9.4% 40.2% 40.7% 17.1% 3:37 PM
Derek Holland CWS SEA 18.6% 110 $6,600 $4,700 $9,600 4.86 5.01 19.2% 9.3% 7.9% 39.4% 38.3% 17.1% 2:10 PM
Homer Bailey CIN WAS 19.2% -115 $6,400 $5,900 $10,400 5.23 8.31 14.0% 10.5% 11.4% 51.6% 26.6% 28.6% 1:10 PM
Kyle Gibson MIN at HOU 17.4% 210 $5,600 $4,500 $11,200 5.32 6.31 13.6% 10.1% 9.1% 50.7% 38.6% 21.1% 2:10 PM
Chris O’Grady MIA LAD 22.2% 155 $5,500 $4,600 $9,200 5.59 5.06 17.4% 8.7% 1.2% 17.6% 11.8% 0.0% 1:10 PM

Note: All statistics in the pitching table are from the 2017 season.

Offenses

Offense IRT RPG +/- Opp. Pitcher L/R P vs. LHB P vs. RHB T-wOBA T-ISO Time (ET)
Chicago Cubs 5.43 4.53 0.89 Ubaldo Jimenez RIGHT 0.397 0.306 0.312 0.176 1:35 PM
Houston Astros 5.38 5.92 -0.54 Kyle Gibson RIGHT 0.389 0.348 0.364 0.216 2:10 PM
Detroit Tigers 5.11 4.70 0.41 Marco Estrada RIGHT 0.285 0.322 0.318 0.161 1:10 PM
Cincinnati Reds 5.09 4.82 0.27 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.315 0.282 0.331 0.191 1:10 PM
Baltimore Orioles 5.07 4.45 0.62 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.281 0.310 0.308 0.156 1:35 PM
Milwaukee Brewers 5.04 4.96 0.09 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.332 0.301 0.331 0.198 2:10 PM
Washington Nationals 4.91 5.52 -0.61 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.382 0.398 0.344 0.191 1:10 PM
Toronto Blue Jays 4.89 4.16 0.73 Anibal Sanchez RIGHT 0.334 0.377 0.313 0.170 1:10 PM
Los Angeles Dodgers 4.82 5.14 -0.32 Chris O’Grady LEFT 0.367 0.233 0.349 0.210 1:10 PM
Seattle Mariners 4.81 4.79 0.02 Derek Holland LEFT 0.268 0.365 0.311 0.127 2:10 PM
Tampa Bay Rays 4.79 4.76 0.04 Parker Bridwell RIGHT 0.404 0.345 0.339 0.204 3:37 PM
Chicago White Sox 4.69 4.56 0.12 Andrew Moore RIGHT 0.272 0.306 0.306 0.156 2:10 PM
Arizona Diamondbacks 4.51 5.01 -0.51 Jaime Garcia LEFT 0.306 0.335 0.284 0.153 1:35 PM
Atlanta Braves 4.49 4.66 -0.16 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.329 0.287 0.311 0.144 1:35 PM
Philadelphia Phillies 4.46 3.82 0.64 Matt Garza RIGHT 0.341 0.309 0.300 0.143 2:10 PM
Boston Red Sox 4.43 4.84 -0.41 CC Sabathia LEFT 0.291 0.313 0.339 0.152 8:05 PM
New York Mets 4.40 4.72 -0.32 Jeff Hoffman RIGHT 0.291 0.349 0.324 0.194 1:10 PM
Texas Rangers 4.39 5.05 -0.65 Ian Kennedy RIGHT 0.312 0.304 0.326 0.201 2:15 PM
St. Louis Cardinals 4.36 4.57 -0.20 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.336 0.325 0.325 0.174 1:35 PM
Oakland Athletics 4.27 4.29 -0.02 Trevor Bauer RIGHT 0.313 0.324 0.321 0.197 4:05 PM
Cleveland Indians 4.23 4.84 -0.61 Sean Manaea LEFT 0.221 0.318 0.330 0.160 4:05 PM
LA Angels of Anaheim 4.21 4.10 0.11 Chris Archer RIGHT 0.313 0.296 0.303 0.150 3:37 PM
Miami Marlins 4.18 4.71 -0.53 Rich Hill LEFT 0.286 0.254 0.328 0.146 1:10 PM
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.14 4.25 -0.11 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.330 0.239 0.307 0.148 1:35 PM
Minnesota Twins 4.12 4.58 -0.46 Mike Fiers RIGHT 0.309 0.363 0.324 0.168 2:10 PM
Kansas City Royals 4.11 4.16 -0.05 Yu Darvish RIGHT 0.284 0.277 0.304 0.166 2:15 PM
Colorado Rockies 4.10 5.07 -0.96 Steven Matz LEFT 0.300 0.296 0.333 0.178 1:10 PM
New York Yankees 4.07 5.55 -1.48 Rick Porcello RIGHT 0.290 0.316 0.350 0.195 8:05 PM
San Francisco Giants 3.78 3.93 -0.15 Trevor Cahill RIGHT 0.273 0.294 0.290 0.132 4:40 PM
San Diego Padres 3.72 3.55 0.17 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.331 0.285 0.297 0.164 4:40 PM

Note: All statistics in the team offense table are from the 2017, season with the exception of the pitcher splits by handedness. They are from the last two seasons combined.

First Look Legend

Term Description
LHB Rating The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters
RHB Rating The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters
Opp. K% Strikeout rate of the opposing offense against the handedness of the pitcher
SIERA Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average – A good predictor of future ERA
ERA Earned Run Average
K% Percentage of batters a pitcher strikes out
BB% Percentage of batters that a pitcher walks
SS% Swinging Strike Percentage
GB% Ground Ball Percentage
HC% Hard Contact Percentage
HR/FB Percentage of fly balls a pitcher gives up a home run
IRT Implied run total based on the Vegas line and over/under
RPG Average runs scored per game
+/- The difference between a team’s implied run total and their average runs scored per game
P vs. LHB The wOBA a pitcher allows to left-handed hitters
P vs. RHB The wOBA a pitcher allows to right-handed hitters
T-wOBA A team’s wOBA vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing
T-ISO A team’s ISO vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Top-Ranked Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious graduated with a Masters degree from the University of Utah, but has since joined Team RotoGrinders. He is currently spotted in the Top 50 Overall rankings on RotoGrinders, and has been ranked as high as 5th. The talented Mr. Noto was a 2012 DSBC Finalist, 2013 DSBBC Finalist, 2013 DSBC Finalist (x2), 2013 DD BLB Finalist, 2013 DFBBC Finalist, and 2015 DK King of Boston Finalist. He also won the 2015-16 FCK NBA Players Championship. Notorious has been nominated for five Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards, including basketball, baseball, and golf.

    Notorious

Comments

  • Cheech11

    Darvish gonna hurl a gem today

  • finsup613

    On the main slate dervish stands out but who to pair him with? Quintana? He looks good on paper

  • johnsdad308

    What about going a little cheaper on pitching today and bigger on hitting…. Bauer and Cahill?

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