MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 6th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Cincinnati at Washington – 7:05 PM EST
| Cincinnati | Washington | ||||||||
 | Anthony DeSclafani |  | Doug Fister | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-146) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.754 | 0.329 | 16.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.694 | 0.306 | 13.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.707 | 0.306 | 17.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.680 | 0.298 | 14.20% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Anthony DeSclafani : FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 128.1 — SIERA: 4.29 — K%: 16.9% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 36.2% — HR/FB: 6.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 3.69 — K%: 19.9% — BB%: 7.4% — FB Rate: 27.1% — HR/FB: 7.7%
Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 22)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 24)
Analysis: DeSclafani has been a serviceable starter for the Reds this season. He comes into tonight’s game in relatively good form, posting a 3.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.9% over the last month. He draws an average matchup tonight against a depleted Nationals’ offense that strikes out at a high rate against right-handed pitching. This isn’t the worst matchup on the board, but DeSclafani is a sizable underdog on the road. He can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:50.3
Doug Fister : FD: $6,800 — DK: $5,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 222.0 — SIERA: 4.16 — K%: 13.9% — BB%: 4.1% — FB Rate: 34.5% — HR/FB: 10.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 18.1 — SIERA: 4.30 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 3.9% — FB Rate: 39.3% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 15.5% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Fister has been in decent form since returning from injury, posting a 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.3% in his last three starts. The big issue with Fister is his strikeout potential. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any qualified starter over the last two seasons. Additionally, he draws a bad strikeout matchup against the Reds, who have an 18.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He may pick up the win tonight, but his upside is severely limited.
Pitcher Rating:50.8
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Even though Doug Fister is a low strikeout pitcher, he is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Since the start of the 2014 season, he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are both in play here, but both players are secondary fantasy options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Jay Bruce : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 642 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 91
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 104
Joey Votto : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 443 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.237 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 44
Washington
The Nationals’ offense is missing some key players at the moment. While I don’t love their team as a whole tonight, there are a few players that deserve consideration in daily fantasy. Anthony DeSclafani has given up a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters, which puts Bryce Harper, Denard Span, and Clint Robinson all in play tonight.
Elite Plays
Bryce Harper : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 509 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.251 — wRC+: 164
Last 14 Days: PA: 40 — wOBA: 0.468 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 203
Denard Span : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 667 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 133
Last 14 Days: PA: 40 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.063 — wRC+: 142
Secondary Plays:
Clint Robinson : FD: $2,800 — DK: $2,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 139 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 112
Last 14 Days: PA: 41 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.206 — wRC+: 138
San Diego at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM EST
| San Diego | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | James Shields |  | A.J. Burnett | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-148) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.766 | 0.336 | 19.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.724 | 0.325 | 18.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.697 | 0.305 | 24.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.699 | 0.309 | 22.20% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SD vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
James Shields : FD: $9,200 — DK: $8,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 331.1 — SIERA: 3.42 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 5.7% — FB Rate: 34.1% — HR/FB: 12.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.0 — SIERA: 3.77 — K%: 24.0% — BB%: 10.9% — FB Rate: 23.8% — HR/FB: 10.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Shields has cooled off a bit over the last month, posting a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.0%. His biggest issue during that stretch has been his command, as he has walked 10.9% of the batters that he has faced. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against a surging Pirates’ offense. Over the last two weeks of play, Pittsburgh is ranked sixth in wOBA (.334) and seventh in strikeout rate (18.2%). Shields is a bit overpriced for his matchup.
Pitcher Rating:66.0
A.J. Burnett : FD: $9,100 — DK: $9,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 319.0 — SIERA: 3.77 — K%: 20.5% — BB%: 9.0% — FB Rate: 26.8% — HR/FB: 9.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.2 — SIERA: 3.23 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 3.4% — FB Rate: 21.1% — HR/FB: 0.0%
San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Burnett continues to pitch well for the Pirates. Over the last month, he has a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.7%. During that stretch, he has only walked 3.4% of the batters that he has faced. While it’s unsustainable, Burnett hasn’t given up a home run in any of his last five starts. He draws a plus-matchup tonight against the Padres, who are ranked 26th in wOBA (.292) and 25th in strikeout rate (22.2%) against right-handed pitching. He is a sizable favorite at home and he provides good upside against a strikeout-prone Padres’ offense.
Pitcher Rating:79.0
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
The Padres have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season. They can’t hit left or right-handed pitching and they strike out at a very high rate. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against A.J. Burnett, who has been terrific all season long for the Pirates. The Padres can safely be avoided in all league formats tonight.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Pittsburgh
As mentioned above, James Shields hasn’t been as sharp in his recent starts. His command hasn’t been nearly as good and his strikeout rate is down a bit as well. If you are targeting any of the Pirates’ hitters tonight, target the ones that can hit from the left side of the plate. Since the start of the 2014 season, Shields has given up a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
Elite Plays
Neil Walker : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 708 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.474 — ISO: 0.217 — wRC+: 211
Secondary Plays:
Pedro Alvarez : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 593 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 117
Last 14 Days: PA: 40 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 151
Gregory Polanco : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 478 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 100
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.256 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 62
Houston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST
| Houston | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Dallas Keuchel |  | Carlos Carrasco | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-118) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.198 | 0.507 | 0.229 | 25.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.197 | 0.545 | 0.245 | 27.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.632 | 0.282 | 17.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.650 | 0.284 | 27.10% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dallas Keuchel : FD: $10,300 — DK: $9,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 324.1 — SIERA: 2.99 — K%: 19.3% — BB%: 6.1% — FB Rate: 17.7% — HR/FB: 10.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.2 — SIERA: 2.49 — K%: 24.1% — BB%: 6.2% — FB Rate: 14.9% — HR/FB: 26.7%
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 18)
Pitchers per PA: 3.93 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Keuchel continues to dominate every opponent that the MLB schedule has thrown at him. He has been terrific over the last month, posting a 2.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.1%. He has improved his strikeout rate this season, yet he has managed to keep his elite ground-ball rate. He catches the Indians at a good time, as their offense is ranked 21st in wOBA (.299) and 18th in strikeout rate (20.6%) over the last 14 days. Chris Sale and Carlos Carrasco are slightly better plays, but Keuchel could be a terrific contrarian route at pitcher tonight.
Pitcher Rating:75.8
Carlos Carrasco : FD: $9,700 — DK: $10,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 231.1 — SIERA: 2.65 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 5.4% — FB Rate: 29.4% — HR/FB: 8.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 2.73 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 33.3% — HR/FB: 13.8%
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 23.3% (Rank: 28)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Carrasco took a no-hitter into the ninth inning in his last start. He eventually gave up a single to Joey Butler, but it was still a terrific outing. He has been sharp over the last month, posting a 2.73 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 27.3%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Astros, who have the highest strikeout rate (25.8%) of any team against right-handed pitching this season. He may give up a couple of runs in the process, but the strikeout potential is massive. Carrasco is one of the top pitching options on the board tonight.
Pitcher Rating:90.5
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros have a very potent offense, but they draw a difficult matchup tonight against Carlos Carrasco. Since the start of 2014, Carrasco has held left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. I expect the Astros to put up a couple of runs in this one, but it’s tough to predict where the production is going to come from. They should be considered secondary fantasy options tonight.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Preston Tucker : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.237 — wRC+: 128
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.224 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 37
Cleveland
Dallas Keuchel produces the highest ground-ball rate of any qualified starter. That limits extra-base hits against him and it helps him pitch out of jams, because it keeps the double-play in order. The Indians hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but Keuchel has held left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Yan Gomes : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 200 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 123
Last 14 Days: PA: 33 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 81
Giovanny Urshela : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 27 — wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 184
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.293 — ISO: 0.070 — wRC+: 88
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EST
| St. Louis | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Jon Lester | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-125) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.728 | 0.319 | 16.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.727 | 0.321 | 25.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.700 | 0.308 | 21.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.654 | 0.289 | 23.80% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Lackey : FD: $8,700 — DK: $8,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 301.2 — SIERA: 3.77 — K%: 19.0% — BB%: 5.8% — FB Rate: 34.4% — HR/FB: 10.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 4.02 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 5.6% — FB Rate: 38.1% — HR/FB: 10.0%
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.276 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 20)
Pitchers per PA: 3.98 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Lackey has been a serviceable starter for the Cardinals. Since the start of the 2014 season, he has a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.0%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Cubs, who are ranked 22nd in wOBA (.302) and 29th in strikeout rate (24.5%) against right-handed pitching. The issue here is that Lackey has a fairly high fly-ball rate and the wind is blowing out to left-center tonight in Wrigley Field.
Pitcher Rating:56.2
Jon Lester : FD: $8,700 — DK: $9,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 316.0 — SIERA: 3.20 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 34.5% — HR/FB: 8.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 3.54 — K%: 23.9% — BB%: 8.6% — FB Rate: 30.3% — HR/FB: 4.3%
St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 24.7% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Lester has been one of the most frustrating pitchers in all of baseball this season, at least from a fantasy perspective. He seems to let us down more often than not, especially when the matchup is favorable. We’ll see if he can buck that trend tonight against the Cardinals, who are ranked 23rd in wOBA (.296) and 29th in strikeout rate (24.7%) against left-handed pitching this season. The wind blowing out to left-center does hurt his appeal a bit though, which is why he should be restricted to tournament play tonight.
Pitcher Rating:75.5
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
It appears that the wind will be blowing out to left-center at around 15 MPH throughout the game tonight. Wrigley Field is the one ballpark where the wind really comes into play. The Cardinals do not hit left-handed pitching well, but they are facing a fly-ball pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark tonight. Jhonny Peralta and Tommy Pham are both on my radar in this one.
Elite Plays
Jhonny Peralta : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 218 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 142
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.224 — ISO: 0.043 — wRC+: 38
Secondary Plays:
Thomas Pham : FD: — DK: $2,000
Position Eligibility: FD: — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 1 — wOBA: 0.000 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: -100
Last 14 Days: PA: 11 — wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.455 — wRC+: 174
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs draw a favorable matchup against John Lackey, who isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate. With the wind blowing out to left-center, the power bats from the Cubs are all in play. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are both elite plays at their respective positions, while Dexter Fowler and Chris Coghlan offer good value in the outfield.
Elite Plays
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 257 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.180 — wRC+: 129
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.443 — ISO: 0.368 — wRC+: 185
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 723 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.263 — wRC+: 152
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.271 — ISO: 0.071 — wRC+: 67
Secondary Plays:
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 662 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 100
Last 14 Days: PA: 40 — wOBA: 0.213 — ISO: 0.081 — wRC+: 27
Chris Coghlan : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 570 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 126
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.088 — wRC+: 139
Atlanta at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Matthew Wisler |  | Kyle Lohse | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL (-136) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.179 | 0.533 | 0.262 | 12.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.728 | 0.319 | 16.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.289 | 0.782 | 0.338 | 10.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.730 | 0.319 | 17.30% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matthew Wisler : FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 17.1 — SIERA: 5.07 — K%: 11.1% — BB%: 6.9% — FB Rate: 40.0% — HR/FB: 4.5%
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.362 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 14.8% (Rank: 1)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Wisler may own a 2.60 ERA on the season, but his peripheral statistics tell another story. In his first three starts, he has a 5.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 11.1%. Both of those indicators are major red flags and we will likely see regression hit him hard. He draws a bad matchup tonight against the Brewers, who are ranked second in wOBA (.362) and first in strikeout rate (14.8%) over the last 14 days. Wisler should be avoided tonight in Milwaukee.
Pitcher Rating:33.2
Kyle Lohse : FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 296.1 — SIERA: 4.10 — K%: 17.0% — BB%: 5.4% — FB Rate: 40.1% — HR/FB: 11.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.2 — SIERA: 4.65 — K%: 12.3% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 37.6% — HR/FB: 12.8%
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.275 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Lohse has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. His strikeout rate is down and he has given up a .319+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate. While a matchup against the Freddie Freeman-less Braves’ offense may look appealing, there is no reason to target Lohse at this point of the season. Rather than giving Lohse the boost, give the boost to the Braves’ offense, who also see a favorable ballpark shift tonight.
Pitcher Rating:56.9
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Even though the Braves are in a good spot tonight against Kyle Lohse, it’s hard to label any of their hitters as elite fantasy options. Cameron Maybin, Jace Peterson, Kelly Johnson, and A.J. Pierzynski are all in play, but all four are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Cameron Maybin : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 397 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.094 — wRC+: 100
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 144
Jace Peterson : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 302 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.099 — wRC+: 82
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.179 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: 7
Kelly Johnson : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 395 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 90
Last 14 Days: PA: 31 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 90
A.J. Pierzynski : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 441 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.124 — wRC+: 92
Last 14 Days: PA: 40 — wOBA: 0.280 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 76
Milwaukee
The Brewers draw a favorable matchup against the rookie Matt Wisler. Milwaukee has the second-highest team total on the board and hitters from both sides of the plate are in play. Heavily target the Brewers tonight in both cash games and tournaments.
Elite Plays
Jonathan Lucroy : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 650 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 124
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.059 — wRC+: 112
Gerardo Parra : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 693 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 101
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.439 — ISO: 0.235 — wRC+: 182
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun : FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 684 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 116
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 190
Adam Lind : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 537 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 158
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.502 — ISO: 0.319 — wRC+: 225
Aramis Ramirez : FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 620 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 94
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.454 — ISO: 0.256 — wRC+: 192