MLB Grind Down: Saturday, October 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:07:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Toronto at Cleveland – 4:05 PM ET

Toronto					Cleveland
			J.A. Happ					Josh Tomlin
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -130					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.287	3	35.8%	17.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.287	14	37.1%	15.6%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.292	19	30.4%	21.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.356	22	31.6%	16.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		34.6	FPPG:		17.7
					Pitcher Rating:		50.3	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	95.0	5.18	2.97	14.6%	9.0%	7.7%	43.0%	35.5%	28.7%
2016	32	94.8	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	9.6%	42.5%	35.5%	31.6%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.75 — K%: 21.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.289
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.96 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304

Happ had a nice season overall, but his numbers did suggest some regression. His SIERA was a full run higher than his ERA and he ended the season struggling to strike hitters out. He comes into today’s game as a small favorite against the Indians, but that has more to do with who the Indians are pitching than it does anything else. Cleveland isn’t the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching, but they were ranked 14th in team wOBA against southpaws during the regular season. This is one of those situations where we should just eat the chalk with Jon Lester.

Josh Tomlin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		25.9	FPPG:		12.9
					Pitcher Rating:		51.6	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	4	87.8	4.59	1.69	10.1%	0.0%	7.7%	46.6%	31.8%	25.8%
2016	29	90.1	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	7.4%	43.8%	35.2%	34.1%
2015	10	94.9	3.46	3.02	22.7%	3.2%	9.4%	37.5%	46.2%	33.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.95 — K%: 18.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.322
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.08 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306

Tomlin was impressive in his first postseason start. While he gave up two runs to the Red Sox, he gave his team a chance to win which was a lot more than I was expecting him to do. I’ve been fading Tomlin all season and that’s not going to change with a matchup against the Blue Jays. Even though Toronto didn’t score any runs in Game 1 against Corey Kluber, they had seven hits. Their offense has been red-hot this postseason and they have the highest implied run total in the slate. Tomlin can be faded in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays were ranked seventh in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against right-handed pitching during the regular season. They draw an excellent matchup against Josh Tomlin, who is an extreme reverse-splits pitcher. Tomlin allowed a .356 wOBA and 22 home runs to right-handed hitters this year and the Blue Jays’ best hitters are all right-handed. Load up on Toronto’s offense in both cash games and tournaments.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.43 (1 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland

The Indians may be underdogs in this game, but this is still an exploitable matchup against J.A. Happ. As I mentioned above, Happ’s numbers suggested some regression during the regular season and we know how good this offense is at home. During the regular season, Happ had an xFIP over 4.15 against both left and right-handed hitters.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.323 (14 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.151 (22 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.5% (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.07 (3 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers					Chicago Cubs
			Kenta Maeda					Jon Lester
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -200					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.313	10	33.1%	19.2%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.237	3	30.3%	26.8%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.253	10	25.1%	30.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.272	18	25.8%	24.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kenta Maeda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		30.1	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		74.4	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	84.0	3.75	4.03	24.8%	8.0%	10.9%	45.1%	28.0%	26.5%
2016	32	91.6	3.69	3.48	25.0%	7.0%	11.6%	43.9%	35.7%	29.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.22 — K%: 25.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.285
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.74 — K%: 24.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278

With Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, and Julio Urias pitching in Game 5 against the Nationals on Thursday night, the Dodgers have no choice but to pitch Maeda tonight. While he wasn’t great in his first career postseason start, he had a solid season overall with a 3.48 ERA and a strikeout rate of 25%. He comes into this game as a sizable underdog against the Cubs, who were ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching during the regular season. Basically, there is no reason to fade Jon Lester in this slate.

Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$11,700
					FPPG:		38.2	FPPG:		21.3
					Pitcher Rating:		97.6	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	102.2	3.08	1.60	25.8%	3.9%	10.8%	55.3%	30.6%	18.2%
2016	32	98.8	3.61	2.44	24.8%	6.5%	10.3%	46.9%	32.8%	26.6%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.76 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.06 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Lester had another terrific season, posting a 2.44 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8% in 32 starts. He threw eight shutout innings against the Giants in his first start of the postseason and he has an excellent track record in the month of October. Better yet, he draws the best possible matchup and he gets to pitch at home. During the regular season, the Dodgers were ranked dead last in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. It’s strange that they have made it this far without being able to hit lefties. Lester is my favorite play in the slate and he will be anchoring my cash and GPP lineups.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers don’t have the best lineup to attack Jon Lester. Their best hitters are left-handed and they don’t really have a lot of speed to take advantage of his vulnerability against stolen bases. During the regular season, Lester held both left and right-handed hitters under a .272 wOBA. If you are targeting any hitters from the Dodgers, make sure that they are capable of stealing bases, as that is the only exploitable part of this matchup.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.275 (30 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.118 (28 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 22.4% (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.17 (4 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs came through with some incredibly clutch hits in Game 4 of the NLDS and now they turn their attention to the Dodgers and the NLCS. The Cubs come into this game with the second highest implied team total in the slate, but it’s only a difference of 0.11 runs. They draw a decent matchup against Kenta Maeda, who looked a bit out of his element in his first career postseason start. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (13 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.02 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.33 (2 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN