MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-06 02:15:24

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Houston at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Houston					NY Yankees
			Dallas Keuchel					Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -125					7.0
Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.201	3	26.3%	3.2%	SP vs. Left	0.296	13	24.6%	4.8%
SP vs. Right	0.268	14	23.0%	6.2%	SP vs. Right	0.280	12	21.3%	4.1%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$11,000		Salary:$10,100
				FPPG:42.2		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:85.3
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	2.84	23.7%	5.6%	18.7%	61.7%	0.326	19.3%

Analysis: This game was originally supposed to take place yesterday, but it was rained out. For fantasy purposes, the analysis remains the same. Keuchel is coming off of an incredible 2015 season. He took that next step into becoming an elite pitcher, improving on both his SIERA and strikeout rate from the previous year. Keuchel produced the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball last season, while simultaneously posting a 2.84 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 23.7%. We can’t put a lot of stock into Spring ball, but Keuchel didn’t allow a single run in his 17 innings of work. The one issue with Keuchel is his matchup, but there aren’t nearly as many aces on the mound as there were yesterday. There are also only three early games, making Keuchel one of the more attractive options in the slate.

Masahiro Tanaka
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$9,100		Salary:$10,500
				FPPG:35.1		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:71.5
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.36	22.8%	4.4%	19.2%	47.0%	0.324	23.6%

Analysis: Tanaka had an injury-plagued 2015 season, but he still managed to start 24 games, finishing with a respectable 3.36 SIERA. It sounds like he is currently pitching with a partially torn UCL though, which is not something that fantasy owners want to hear. Reading reports around the league, it sounds like it’s only a matter of time before he has to have another surgery. The one plus for Tanaka in his season debut is his matchup against the Astros. In 2015, Houston had the second highest rate (23.6%) of any team in baseball. There are too many red flags to consider Tanaka in cash games, but he’s an interesting GPP play in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Even though he may be pitching at less than 100%, Masahiro Tanaka is not a great matchup. In 2015, he held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. Houston has some talented young hitters in their lineup though, and I like the speed/power combination that George Springer and Carlos Correa provide. Jose Altuve is always among the league leaders in stolen bases. My favorite play here is Colby Rasmus. He ended the 2015 season on a tear and he sees a small boost in Yankee Stadium with that short porch in right field.

Elite Plays

Colby Rasmus
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,000		Salary:$3,000
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:7.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	485	0.339	0.236	115	25	31.8%	9.7%
vs.RH Pitching	345	0.329	0.243	107	18	32.5%	7.8%

Secondary Plays

Carlos Correa
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,300		Salary:$4,200
			Position:SS		Position:SS
			FPPG:11.7		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	432	0.365	0.233	133	22	18.1%	9.3%
vs.RH Pitching	292	0.359	0.209	128	13	19.5%	8.9%

George Springer
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,500		Salary:$4,300
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:10.7		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	451	0.360	0.183	129	16	24.2%	11.1%
vs.RH Pitching	291	0.336	0.154	113	8	26.5%	10.3%

Jose Altuve
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,700		Salary:$4,200
			Position:2B		Position:2B
			FPPG:11.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	689	0.347	0.146	120	15	9.7%	4.8%
vs.RH Pitching	479	0.319	0.136	101	10	8.8%	3.1%

NY Yankees

Targeting hitters against Dallas Keuchel is not a successful long-term strategy in daily fantasy baseball. Pitchers with elite ground ball rates typically don’t give up hard contact and they give up few extra base hits. Alex Rodriguez is really the only Yankees’ hitter on my radar in this one. Even though he is as old as the hills, he posted an elite .389 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. You could maybe look to a cheap right-handed hitter such as Carlos Beltran or Chase Headley, but the Yankees are best suited as GPP plays here.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Alex Rodriguez
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,800		Salary:$3,800
			Position:3B		Position:1B/3B
			FPPG:10.4		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	620	0.361	0.235	129	33	23.4%	13.5%
vs.LH Pitching	193	0.389	0.269	148	10	24.9%	16.1%

Boston at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Boston					Cleveland
			David Price					Corey Kluber
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -105					6.5
Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.285	4	20.8%	3.1%	SP vs. Left	0.322	11	25.8%	6.3%
SP vs. Right	0.265	13	26.9%	6.0%	SP vs. Right	0.238	11	29.8%	3.6%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$12,300		Salary:$11,000
				FPPG:42.9		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:89.3
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.27	25.3%	5.3%	23.1%	40.4%	0.320	18.7%

Analysis: The Yankees game was postponed well in advance of lineup lock and we all had our eyes on the Orioles game. Everyone expected this game to get played, but it was eventually postponed as well. Price is making his first start with the Red Sox, after signing a 7-year, $217 million contract in the offseason. Price has been an elite strikeout pitcher over the last few seasons. He likes to attack the plate, which is why his K:BB ratio is so high and why he is generally able to pitch deep into games. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact Fenway Park will have on his ERA, but he opens the season in Cleveland. With a number of left-handed bats in their lineup, the Indians seem like a good matchup for southpaws. However, in 2015, Cleveland ranked inside the top ten in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Price wasn’t really on my radar yesterday with Clayton Kershaw in such a great spot, but he is a strong play on Tuesday, especially in the early slate.

Corey Kluber
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$9,700		Salary:$10,300
				FPPG:39.1		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:90.1
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	2.98	27.7%	5.1%	21.7%	42.4%	0.319	17.8%

Analysis: There were times last season when Kluber was nearly as expensive as Clayton Kershaw. He had a career year, vaulting him to being known as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished the 2015 season with a 2.98 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 27.7%. He also throws a lot of strikes and is typically good at keeping his walks down. Kluber’s season debut comes against a Red Sox team that hit four home runs off of him in their two meetings. While I generally don’t like to target pitchers against the Red Sox – thanks to a high wOBA and a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, Kluber is my favorite pitching target in the early three-game slate. He has just as much upside as David Price and he is much cheaper.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox had some success against Corey Kluber least season, but most of it came by way of the long ball. I’m not expecting a repeat this time around, especially since the game is being played in Cleveland. Temperatures are expected to be low, which is never great for offensive production. I won’t be targeting any of the Red Sox in cash games, but David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, and Travis Shaw are all worth a look in tournaments.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

David Ortiz
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,500		Salary:$4,100
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:11.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	614	0.379	0.280	138	37	15.5%	12.5%
vs.RH Pitching	430	0.413	0.320	161	29	13.0%	15.1%

Mookie Betts
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,000		Salary:$4,600
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:11.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	654	0.351	0.188	119	18	12.5%	7.0%
vs.RH Pitching	493	0.348	0.192	117	13	13.6%	7.1%

Travis Shaw
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,500		Salary:$3,200
			Position:3B		Position:1B
			FPPG:9.1		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	248	0.348	0.217	117	13	23.0%	7.3%
vs.RH Pitching	163	0.314	0.174	93	7	23.3%	9.2%

Cleveland

Targeting hitters against David Price is not a strategy that is going to be profitable over the course of the season. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 2015, he held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA. Price did give up 13 home runs to right-handed bats though, which brings a few Cleveland hitters into play for tournaments. Francisco Lindor and Mike Napoli both posted a .380+ wOBA against southpaws last season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Francisco Lindor
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,300		Salary:$3,500
			Position:SS		Position:SS
			FPPG:10.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	438	0.358	0.169	128	12	15.8%	6.2%
vs.LH Pitching	155	0.381	0.200	144	5	16.1%	7.1%

Mike Napoli
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$3,300
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:7.4		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	469	0.321	0.187	98	18	25.2%	12.2%
vs.LH Pitching	179	0.403	0.285	154	12	26.3%	15.1%

NY Mets at Kansas City – 4:15 PM ET

NY Mets					Kansas City
			Noah Syndergaard					Chris Young
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -115					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.296	10	22.4%	6.0%	SP vs. Left	0.320	8	15.7%	10.3%
SP vs. Right	0.262	9	32.6%	4.3%	SP vs. Right	0.237	8	17.6%	6.7%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$9,900		Salary:$9,400
				FPPG:37.3		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:83.2
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	2.95	27.5%	5.1%	19.9%	46.5%	0.319	16.3%

Syndergaard blew expectations out of the water in his rookie season, posting a 2.95 SIERA, a 27.5% strikeout rate, and a 5.1% walk rate. The craziest part is that he is still only 23 years old. He will look to build on his rookie effort in 2016. He is one of the many young aces that the Mets get to roll out every night. While he will be a popular DFS target moving forward, we have learned time and time again that we shouldn’t target pitchers against the Royals. They had the fewest strikeouts in baseball last season and really made it tough on even the best of pitchers. At his price point, I prefer Corey Kluber or Dallas Keuchel.

Chris Young
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$5,500		Salary:$3,000
				FPPG:18.4		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:48.8
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	5.15	16.6%	8.6%	16.6%	25.5%	0.308	20.2%

Young is by far the worst pitcher in the early slate of games. It could also be argued that he is the worst pitcher in the all day slate as well. He finished the 2015 season with a below-average SIERA (5.15) and strikeout rate (16.5%) and he typically doesn’t pitch very deep into games. Even though the Royals are favored in this matchup, don’t let that fool you. Young can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Even though they are small underdogs in this game, the Mets are my top offense to target in the early slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Chris Young, who gets very few outs by the way of the strikeout. Young was tough on right-handed hitters last season, but did allow a .320 wOBA to left-handed bats. The only downside to this matchup is that Young typically doesn’t pitch very deep into games and the Royals have one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Elite Plays

Lucas Duda
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$4,300
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:9.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	554	0.359	0.242	133	27	24.9%	11.9%
vs.RH Pitching	422	0.354	0.236	130	20	22.7%	14.0%

Secondary Plays

Curtis Granderson
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,500
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:9.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	682	0.357	0.198	132	26	22.1%	13.3%
vs.RH Pitching	539	0.384	0.225	151	24	19.1%	14.1%

Neil Walker
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,500		Salary:$4,000
			Position:2B		Position:2B
			FPPG:3.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	603	0.325	0.158	108	16	18.2%	7.3%
vs.RH Pitching	501	0.340	0.180	119	16	19.4%	7.4%

Michael Conforto
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,500		Salary:$3,600
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:15.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	194	0.359	0.236	134	9	20.1%	8.8%
vs.RH Pitching	179	0.371	0.256	142	9	20.1%	8.9%

Kansas City

The Royals are an offense that can show up in any ballpark against any pitcher. I certainly wouldn’t put it past them to come out and score some runs against Noah Syndergaard, who had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in 2015. The issue that I always have with the Royals is that it can be tough to predict where the production is going to come from. Syndergaard had pretty equal splits last season, holding both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. In interested in Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Alex Gordon, but all three are secondary options.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Mike Moustakas
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,900		Salary:$3,700
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:3.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	614	0.353	0.186	124	22	12.4%	7.0%
vs.RH Pitching	383	0.353	0.175	123	12	13.8%	8.1%

Eric Hosmer
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,100
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:12.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	667	0.355	0.162	125	18	16.2%	9.1%
vs.RH Pitching	401	0.378	0.192	141	14	15.7%	10.5%

Alex Gordon
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$3,600
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:9.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	422	0.351	0.161	122	13	21.8%	11.6%
vs.RH Pitching	276	0.347	0.162	120	8	21.7%	12.7%

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis					Pittsburgh
			Michael Wacha					Jon Niese
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -105					7.0
Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.270	6	19.6%	8.0%	SP vs. Left	0.343	4	16.3%	4.2%
SP vs. Right	0.313	13	20.5%	7.3%	SP vs. Right	0.330	16	14.2%	8.0%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$8,500		Salary:$8,100
				FPPG:33.4		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:81.1
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.02	20.1%	7.6%	22.2%	45.8%	0.316	20.6%

Wacha is coming off of a somewhat disappointing 2015 campaign. He finished the season with a 4.02 SIERA, a strikeout rate of 20.1%, and a walk rate of 7.6%. The good news is that he was able to stay healthy, after having surgery in 2014. He opens this season against the Pirates, who were a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching last season. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em and given the lack of pitching options tonight, Wacha makes a decent play in all league formats.

Jon Niese
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$6,300		Salary:$6,300
				FPPG:22.2		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:63.2
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.27	14.7%	7.1%	20.8%	54.5%	0.291	23.6%

Niese is making his first start with the Pirates, after spending the last ten years with the Mets. The good news is that he is staying in the National League in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Niese finished the 2015 season with a 4.27 SIERA and a low strikeout rate of 14.7%. The dip in strikeouts could have something to do with his age. He had a very low swinging strike rate of 5.8% last year. Daily fantasy baseball is all about strikeouts when it comes to pitchers. For that reason, I will be avoiding Niese tonight, even though the Cardinals have struggled against left-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

As mentioned above, Jon Niese is trending in the wrong direction. He is coming off of a subpar 2015 season, where he allowed a 330+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Even though St. Louis has a fairly low team total, all of the right-handed bats in the Cardinals’ lineup are in play here – Stephen Piscotty, Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Yadier Molina. Matt Carpenter is also in play. Even though this is a lefty/lefty matchup, he posted a .327 wOBA against southpaws last season.

Elite Plays

Stephen Piscotty
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,700		Salary:$3,700
			Position:OF		Position:1B/OF
			FPPG:3.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	256	0.364	0.189	133	7	21.9%	7.8%
vs.LH Pitching	66	0.376	0.186	141	2	22.7%	9.1%

Secondary Plays

Matt Holliday
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,800		Salary:$3,700
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:6.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	277	0.351	0.131	124	4	17.7%	14.1%
vs.LH Pitching	77	0.347	0.148	121	2	19.5%	19.5%

Matt Carpenter
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,100
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:9.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	665	0.372	0.233	139	28	22.7%	12.2%
vs.LH Pitching	211	0.327	0.201	107	8	25.6%	10.9%

Randal Grichuk
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$3,300
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:3.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	350	0.370	0.272	137	17	31.4%	6.3%
vs.LH Pitching	118	0.348	0.257	122	6	28.8%	3.4%

Yadier Molina
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,400		Salary:$3,300
			Position:C		Position:C
			FPPG:12.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	530	0.287	0.080	80	4	11.1%	6.0%
vs.LH Pitching	144	0.258	0.032	61	0	11.1%	11.1%

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are an offense that can pop at times, but they can also go dormant even when they are faced with a favorable matchup. Tonight’s matchup against Michael Wacha is not that appealing, as he held left-handed hitters to a .270 wOBA last season. Andrew McCutchen is always worth a look in GPPs with his speed/power combination. John Jaso is a decent cash game play, as he had a .358 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andrew McCutchen
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,600		Salary:$4,800
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:6.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	685	0.380	0.196	146	23	19.4%	14.3%
vs.RH Pitching	546	0.376	0.200	143	18	19.8%	15.2%

John Jaso
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,500		Salary:$3,200
			Position:1B		Position:OF
			FPPG:6.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	216	0.364	0.173	136	5	18.1%	13.0%
vs.RH Pitching	197	0.358	0.180	132	5	17.8%	11.2%

Detroit at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Detroit					Miami
			Justin Verlander					Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -110					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR Allowed	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.268	8	20.1%	6.4%	SP vs. Left	0.250	3	17.1%	3.2%
SP vs. Right	0.286	5	22.2%	5.6%	SP vs. Right	0.348	25	20.0%	5.8%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$8,900		Salary:$8,700
				FPPG:32.5		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:83.4
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.95	21.1%	6.0%	19.9%	34.6%	0.297	18.9%

It was a tale of two halves for Verlander last season. Before the All-Star break, he had a 5.80 FIP (similar to SIERA). It looked like his career was on the downslide. He then turned it around in the second half of the season, posting a 2.81 FIP with a strikeout rate of 23.6%. I’m not sure where I stand with Verlander heading into the 2016 season. While he did flash some great form last year, he is 33 years old. He opens with a nice matchup against the Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you can stomach rostering him, he is actually a pretty decent target in all league formats.

Wei-Yin Chen
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$8,300		Salary:$8,100
				FPPG:30.7		FPPG:N/A
				Pitcher Rating:68.8
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.97	19.3%	5.2%	20.1%	40.5%	0.347	21.7%

Chen actually had a nice season for the Orioles in 2015, posting a 3.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.3%. He should be able to improve on those numbers now that he is with the Marlins. Not only does he get to pitch in the National League, but half of his starts will come in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Chen is going to be a favorite target of mine here in the early part of the season, but I won’t be using him against the Tigers. They had one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching last season and they only got better the offseason.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are a lot like the Blue Jays in that when they face a left-handed pitcher, there are a number of viable fantasy options. Even though this isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production, Wei-Yin Chen allowed a .348 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, and J.D. Martinez all feast on left-handed pitching. All four are in play tonight. Victor Martinez would be a solid target, but he is not expected to be in the lineup, as there is no DH in the National League.

Elite Plays

Miguel Cabrera
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,400		Salary:$4,700
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:11.4		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	511	0.413	0.196	165	18	16.0%	15.1%
vs.LH Pitching	103	0.435	0.238	180	5	12.6%	20.4%

Ian Kinsler
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,000		Salary:$4,000
			Position:2B		Position:2B
			FPPG:9.7		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	675	0.335	0.131	111	11	11.9%	6.4%
vs.LH Pitching	141	0.345	0.145	118	2	6.4%	6.4%

Secondary Plays

Justin Upton
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,500		Salary:$4,100
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:10.4		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	620	0.340	0.203	120	26	25.6%	11.0%
vs.LH Pitching	121	0.250	0.109	58	3	32.2%	8.3%

J.D. Martinez
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,200
			Position:OF		Position:
			FPPG:11.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	657	0.372	0.253	137	38	27.1%	8.1%
vs.LH Pitching	138	0.385	0.274	145	10	31.2%	15.2%

Miami

There has been a lot of buzz around the idea that reverse-splits don’t mean anything in trying to predict future performance. While that may be true for the most part, Verlander has had reverse-splits his entire career. Giancarlo Stanton is about as matchup proof of a player as you will find and he has as much upside as any hitter in this slate. Dee Gordon is also worth a look, as he is always a threat to steal a base or two.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Giancarlo Stanton
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,700		Salary:$5,100
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:13.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	318	0.394	0.341	152	27	29.9%	10.7%
vs.RH Pitching	251	0.375	0.291	139	18	29.5%	10.8%

Dee Gordon
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,500		Salary:$4,600
			Position:2B		Position:2B
			FPPG:11.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	653	0.337	0.085	113	4	13.9%	3.8%
vs.RH Pitching	484	0.329	0.079	108	2	13.8%	4.1%

Make sure to check out the Blueprint to Daily Fantasy Baseball, as well as some other great MLB courses at RotoAcademy.

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