MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 30th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST
| Milwaukee | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Taylor Jungmann |  | Cole Hamels | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PHI (-118) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 0.817 | 0.358 | 23.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.191 | 0.577 | 0.269 | 21.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.191 | 0.609 | 0.273 | 17.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.658 | 0.290 | 25.20% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Taylor Jungmann : FD: $5,700 — DK: $6,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 3.50 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 6.3% — FB Rate: 27.3% — HR/FB: 5.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 3.50 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 6.3% — FB Rate: 27.3% — HR/FB: 5.6%
Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Jungmann has pitched well in his first four major league starts. He currently owns a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.0%. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked 30th in wOBA (.279) against right-handed pitching this season. While it’s still an above-average matchup, the Phillies have been a thorn in the side of quite a few pitchers recently (Jimmy Nelson and Michael Wacha come to mind). On a night with so many great options taking the mound, I see Jungmann strictly as a tournament option.
Pitcher Rating:65.1
Cole Hamels : FD: $9,800 — DK: $10,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 304.0 — SIERA: 3.30 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 7.5% — FB Rate: 30.9% — HR/FB: 10.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 2.85 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 7.0% — FB Rate: 20.9% — HR/FB: 15.8%
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.280 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% (Rank: 4)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Hamels continues to pitch well through all of the trade rumors, but you have to think that he’s not 100% focused and committed at the moment. He still owns a 2.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.3% over the last month, but you just get the feeling that he’s going to have a few bad outings in the near future. The Brewers’ offense is finally trending in the right direction, ranking 14th in wOBA (.323) over the last 14 days. Hamels is at a similar price point as Sonny Gray, who is a much better fantasy option tonight.
Pitcher Rating:80.7
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Even though I won’t be targeting Cole Hamels in any cash contests tonight, I’m not sure that I want very much exposure to the Brewers’ offense either. Since the start of last season, Hamels has held left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. The Brewers do have quite a few right-handed bats to throw at the southpaw, but they are all a little too expensive to be considered elite fantasy options tonight.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Gomez : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 185 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 120
Last 14 Days: PA: 25 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.087 — wRC+: 109
Jonathan Lucroy : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 183 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 76
Philadelphia
The sample size is still very small with Taylor Jungmann, which makes it tough to trust the splits that he has given up to left and right-handed hitters in his first four starts. The Phillies’ offense has been better recently, but they are still ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Maikel Franco and Ben Revere are both decent secondary options, but neither player stands out as a must start at his respective position.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Maikel Franco : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 151 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 126
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.433 — ISO: 0.304 — wRC+: 179
Ben Revere : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 668 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 168
Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Texas | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Colby Lewis |  | Miguel Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-148) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.299 | 0.827 | 0.358 | 14.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.740 | 0.325 | 16.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.750 | 0.326 | 22.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.719 | 0.318 | 18.70% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Colby Lewis : FD: $6,600 — DK: $7,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 264.2 — SIERA: 4.18 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 44.9% — HR/FB: 8.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.0 — SIERA: 3.98 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 3.5% — FB Rate: 46.4% — HR/FB: 3.9%
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.366 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 12)
Analysis: It’s hard to trust the numbers with Colby Lewis. As crazy as it sounds, his SIERA and strikeout rate over the last two seasons closely resemble those of Shelby Miller. Yet one pitcher is one that we often pick on and the other has been a reliable fantasy option this season. It would take a near perfect matchup for Lewis to become a good fantasy option and facing the Orioles in Camden Yards does not qualify. Baltimore is ranked seventh in wOBA (.323) against right-handed pitching and second in wOBA (.366) over the last 14 days.
Pitcher Rating:46.3
Miguel Gonzalez : FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 237.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 40.2% — HR/FB: 12.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 3.55 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 2.1% — FB Rate: 42.3% — HR/FB: 16.7%
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 20)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 26.6% (Rank: 29)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Gonzalez has pitched well in his recent starts, posting a 3.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.0%. Even though he is in good form, he’s still an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. He draws a tough matchup against the left-handed heavy lineup of the Rangers. Gonzalez has given up a .324 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate over the last two seasons, which doesn’t bode well for tonight’s matchup. Both pitchers should be avoided in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.
Pitcher Rating:55.0
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers teed off against Bud Norris last night and they will look to do the same against Miguel Gonzalez tonight. Gonzalez is a fly-ball pitcher (40.2%) with an above-average HR/FB rate (12.7%). He has also given up a .314+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate over the past two seasons. There are five Rangers’ hitters that I will be targeting tonight. All five can be used together in a tournament or separately in cash games.
Elite Plays:
Rougned Odor : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 386 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 90
Last 14 Days: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.242 — wRC+: 179
Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 552 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 114
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.146 — ISO: 0.023 — wRC+: -23
Secondary Plays:
Prince Fielder : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 307 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.262 — wRC+: 187
Adrian Beltre : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 620 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 116
Last 14 Days: PA: 20 — wOBA: 0.177 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: -1
Mitch Moreland : FD: $2,600 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 300 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.181 — wRC+: 121
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.156 — wRC+: 102
Baltimore
Even though Colby Lewis has a decent SIERA in his last two seasons, he has still given up a .326+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate. The Orioles have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last two weeks and they have the third-highest team total on the board tonight. The left-handed hitters in this lineup are the preferred targets, but the right-handed bats are also in play here.
Elite Plays:
Chris Davis : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 579 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 102
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.229 — wRC+: 130
Chris Parmelee : FD: $2,500 — DK: $2,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 220 — wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 96
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.449 — ISO: 0.419 — wRC+: 193
Secondary Plays:
Manny Machado : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 499 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 132
Last 14 Days: PA: 60 — wOBA: 0.512 — ISO: 0.327 — wRC+: 236
Jimmy Paredes : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 247 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 36 — wOBA: 0.534 — ISO: 0.375 — wRC+: 251
Matt Wieters : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 129 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 154
Last 14 Days: PA: 28 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 112
Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM EST
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Eduardo Rodriguez |  | Marco Estrada | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-150) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.652 | 0.282 | 26.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.685 | 0.302 | 19.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.617 | 0.279 | 20.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.735 | 0.323 | 21.80% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Eduardo Rodriguez : FD: $7,500 — DK: $5,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 35.1 — SIERA: 3.72 — K%: 22.1% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 33.3% — HR/FB: 9.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.2 — SIERA: 3.85 — K%: 21.4% — BB%: 7.7% — FB Rate: 34.6% — HR/FB: 10.7%
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Rodriguez has been the Red Sox best pitcher since being called up from the minor leagues. On the season, he has a 3.72 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 22.1%. Unfortunately, his turn in the rotation comes tonight against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Toronto is ranked first in wOBA (.377) and third in strikeout rate (17.5%) against left-handed pitching this season. They will likely have nine right-handed bats to throw at the young southpaw tonight.
Pitcher Rating:54.8
Marco Estrada : FD: $7,900 — DK: $6,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 223.2 — SIERA: 3.90 — K%: 20.6% — BB%: 7.3% — FB Rate: 48.1% — HR/FB: 11.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.2 — SIERA: 3.70 — K%: 22.7% — BB%: 6.8% — FB Rate: 47.3% — HR/FB: 4.5%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.352 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 9)
Pitchers per PA: 3.95 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Estrada was close to a perfect game in his last start, as he pitched a gem against the Rays in Tampa Bay. He has been very good over the last month, posting a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. He should see plenty of run support tonight, but he’ll likely give up a few runs of his own. The Red Sox have one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball and they are ranked fourth in wOBA (.352) over the last 14 days. Estrada is a deep tournament play at best tonight.
Pitcher Rating:55.2
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Marco Estrada has pitched well in his recent starts, but he is still a fly-ball pitcher (48.1%) with an above-average HR/FB rate (11.8%). The Red Sox also see a small ballpark boost tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. While the splits slightly favor the right-handed hitters in this lineup, David Ortiz and Pablo Sandoval provide the best value at their respective positions. Both should be considered elite plays (at least on FanDuel).
Elite Plays:
David Ortiz : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 614 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 136
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 104
Pablo Sandoval : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 620 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.153 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 101
Secondary Plays:
Mookie Betts : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 397 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 121
Last 14 Days: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.468 — ISO: 0.309 — wRC+: 204
Xander Bogaerts : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 628 — wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 78
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 107
Toronto
The Blue Jays draw a difficult matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez on paper, but they are facing him at home in the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre. Toronto currently has the highest team total on the board, so the oddsmakers are not concerned about their matchup in the slightest. They mash left-handed pitching as a team and their bats make great targets in both cash games and tournaments.
Elite Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 238 — wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.345 — wRC+: 190
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 108
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 194 — wOBA: 0.446 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 190
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 119
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,100 — DK: $5,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 164 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 136
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 141
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 115
Last 14 Days: PA: 36 — wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 158
Pittsburgh at Detroit – 7:08 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Gerrit Cole |  | Justin Verlander | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-118) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.669 | 0.300 | 24.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.703 | 0.311 | 18.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.652 | 0.290 | 25.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.313 | 0.000 | 0.370 | 15.10% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gerrit Cole : FD: $10,600 — DK: $9,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 233.2 — SIERA: 3.11 — K%: 25.1% — BB%: 6.8% — FB Rate: 29.9% — HR/FB: 9.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 3.51 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 32.6% — HR/FB: 7.1%
Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 21)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 11)
Analysis: Cole is coming off of a rough outing against the Reds at home. For whatever reason, the Reds have had his number this season. He’ll look to bounce back tonight, but he’ll have his hands full with a very talented Tigers’ offense. On the season, Detroit is ranked seventh in wOBA (.323) and 13th in strikeout rate (19.3%) against right-handed pitching. With Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, and Dallas Keuchel all taking the mound tonight, there is no reason to risk using Cole in cash games.
Pitcher Rating:84.3
Justin Verlander : FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 217.2 — SIERA: 4.23 — K%: 17.3% — BB%: 7.2% — FB Rate: 40.5% — HR/FB: 7.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 11.2 — SIERA: 5.47 — K%: 8.0% — BB%: 6.0% — FB Rate: 40.5% — HR/FB: 23.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 20)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Verlander will be making his third start of the season. If tonight’s start goes anything like the first two, it’s going to be another long night for Kate Upton’s ex. The Pirates may not be the best offense in baseball, but they have a lot of quality right-handed hitters in their lineup and Verlander is a reverse-splits pitcher. We should continue to avoid Verlander until he can string together a few quality starts.
Pitcher Rating:48.5
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
The Pirates’ offense is going to fly under the radar tonight. While I don’t necessarily love them as a stacking option, they do make great tournament plays as individual hitters. As mentioned above, Justin Verlander is a reverse-splits pitcher that has given up a .370 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the past two seasons.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 783 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 162
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 174
Starling Marte : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 696 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 123
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.023 — wRC+: 50
Josh Harrison : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 672 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 118
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.263 — ISO: 0.041 — wRC+: 66
Detroit
Since the start of 2014, Gerrit Cole has held left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. The Tigers are a very competent offense, but they are a bit overpriced for their difficult matchup against Cole. There are better matchups to exploit tonight, which is why I will be employing a complete Tigers fade.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Kyle Hendricks |  | Jonathon Niese | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-116) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.669 | 0.295 | 14.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.689 | 0.303 | 18.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.677 | 0.299 | 18.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.771 | 0.339 | 16.40% |
| Batter Splits | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Hendricks : FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 159.0 — SIERA: 3.80 — K%: 17.0% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 32.4% — HR/FB: 8.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.0 — SIERA: 3.41 — K%: 19.6% — BB%: 3.6% — FB Rate: 30.6% — HR/FB: 15.4%
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.247 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 18)
Pitchers per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Hendricks has pitched well in his recent starts, posting a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.6% over the last month. He draws one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as the Mets are ranked 27th in wOBA (.288) and 22nd in strikeout rate (20.4%) against right-handed pitching this season. Hendricks may not be in play for cash games on single-pitcher sites, but he is a quality SP2 that will allow you to afford some of the more expensive hitters tonight. I have him ranked as the tenth best pitching option on the board, yet he is around the 20th most expensive pitcher on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pitcher Rating:65.5
Jon Niese : FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 270.2 — SIERA: 3.87 — K%: 16.9% — BB%: 6.2% — FB Rate: 27.4% — HR/FB: 11.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.0 — SIERA: 3.60 — K%: 18.6% — BB%: 7.8% — FB Rate: 18.2% — HR/FB: 25.0%
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 24)
Pitchers per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Niese draws the start for the Mets tonight. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s a quality pitcher that always seems to give his team a chance to pick up the win. He has a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.6% over the last month. He also has a good track record at home in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Cubs, though. Chicago is ranked third in wOBA (.331) against left-handed pitching and as a team, they average the most pitches per plate appearance. If I’m targeting a pitcher in this game, I’d rather take the one with the better offense behind him.
Pitcher Rating:52.1
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
As mentioned above Jon Niese has pitched well at Citi Field throughout his career. It’s one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, which helps explain why the Cubs have such a low team total tonight. The right-handed bats in this lineup are in play as secondary options though, as Niese has given up a .339 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Kris Bryant : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.368 — wRC+: 187
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 76
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 175 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.127 — wRC+: 151
Last 14 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.264 — ISO: 0.114 — wRC+: 62
NY Mets
Since the start of 2014, Kyle Hendricks has held left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. The Mets are one of the worst offenses in all of baseball and they are playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks. Lucas Duda is in play in tournaments thanks to his discounted price tag, but the rest of the Mets should be avoided tonight.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 704 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.237 — wRC+: 143
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.217 — ISO: 0.067 — wRC+: 37