MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 2nd - Page Three

Seattle at Houston – 8:10 PM EST

Seattle Houston
seattlemlb Taijuan Walker houstonmlb Scott Kazmir
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU (-162) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.246 0.696 0.307 0.222 SP vs. Left 0.259 0.676 0.3 0.192
SP vs. Right 0.241 0.71 0.309 0.227 SP vs. Right 0.215 0.615 0.274 0.223
Batter Splits SEA BvP SEA vs L Batter Splits HOU BvP HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Taijuan Walker : FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 191.0 — SIERA: 3.67 — ERA: 4.15 — K%: 22.4% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 3.89 — ERA: 3.73 — K%: 18.9% — BB%: 4.7% — HR/9: 0.6

Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 25.7% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Walker is back in good form, posting a 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.9% over the last month of play. He draws a nice strikeout matchup against the Astros, who have the second highest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. The risk is also there against a potent Houston lineup, but there is plenty of upside at this price point. He is in play for tournaments and as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating: 63.2


Scott Kazmir : FD: $9,600 — DK: $9,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 344.1 — SIERA: 3.70 — ERA: 3.06 — K%: 21.5% — BB%: 7.0% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.74 — ERA: 3.94 — K%: 21.7% — BB%: 7.0% — HR/9: 1.5

Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 27)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Kazmir has pitched well recently, posting a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.7% over the last month of play. He draws an intriguing matchup against the Mariners, who have the seventh-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. He doesn’t have as much upside as Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey, but he is a viable SP2 if you can find enough cheap bats to go with a Harvey/Kazmir or a Kershaw/Kazmir combination.

Pitcher Rating: 78.7

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners draw a tough matchup tonight against Scott Kazmir, but they do get to face him in the home run friendly confines of Minute Maid Park. Franklin Gutierrez has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball recently and is a borderline elite play, despite the tough matchup. Nelson Cruz is an interesting tournament play.

Elite Plays:

Franklin Gutierrez : FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 87 — wOBA: 0.453 — ISO: 0.338 — wRC+: 199
Last 30 Days: PA: 63 — wOBA: 0.491 — ISO: 0.431 — wRC+: 226

Secondary Plays:

Nelson Cruz : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 322 — wOBA: 0.441 — ISO: 0.294 — wRC+: 189
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.400 — wRC+: 206


Houston

The Astros are sizable favorites tonight, but I’m not in love with their matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has really pitched well for a large majority of the season. Jose Altuve and Evan Gattis are both secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve : FD: $4,000 — DK: $5,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 933 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 110
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.096 — wRC+: 143

Evan Gattis : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 654 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.266 — wRC+: 110


Washington at St. Louis – 8:15 PM EST

Editor’s Note: Michael Wacha has been scratched from today’s start. Tyler Lyons will start in his place.

Washington St. Louis
washingtonmlb Max Scherzer stlouismlb Michael Wacha
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL (-114) 6.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.237 0.677 0.298 0.256 SP vs. Left 0.215 0.59 0.265 0.196
SP vs. Right 0.203 0.577 0.254 0.328 SP vs. Right 0.24 0.665 0.293 0.218
Batter Splits WAS BvP WAS vs R Batter Splits STL BvP STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer : FD: $10,800 — DK: $12,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 398.1 — SIERA: 2.84 — ERA: 3.03 — K%: 28.7% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 2.85 — ERA: 6.43 — K%: 29.6% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 2.3

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Scherzer may have a 6.43 ERA over the last month of play, but don’t let that fool you. During that same stretch, he has a 2.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.6%. Tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals isn’t the best on the board, but I always like the idea of an under-owned Scherzer in tournaments. With Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw in such good spots, Scherzer will likely get overlooked tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 90.7


Editor’s Note: Michael Wacha has been scratched from today’s start. Tyler Lyons will start in his place.

Michael Wacha : FD: $9,400 — DK: $10,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 264.1 — SIERA: 3.76 — ERA: 2.89 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 4.06 — ERA: 1.13 — K%: 20.4% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 0.6

Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.377 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 20)
Pitches per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Wacha has the exact opposite issue that Max Scherzer does. While his ERA (1.18) has been terrific over the last month, his SIERA (4.06) tells another story. Now that the Nationals are healthy, they are a very formidable opponent for pitchers. Wacha is an easy avoid tonight at this price point.

Pitcher Rating: 71.5

Batter Grind Down

Washington / St. Louis

This game has the lowest total on the schedule tonight, which makes it easy to avoid both offenses. As we saw from last night’s Giants/Dodgers game, there is very little fantasy appeal in games that are expected to be pitcher’s duels.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


Arizona at Colorado – 8:40 PM EST

Arizona Colorado
arizonamlb Chase Anderson coloradomlb Jon Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI (-115) 11
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.245 0.728 0.320 0.176 SP vs. Left 0.262 0.65 0.287 0.192
SP vs. Right 0.284 0.79 0.342 0.193 SP vs. Right 0.311 0.889 0.374 0.229
Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs R Batter Splits COL BvP COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Anderson : FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 248.2 — SIERA: 4.07 — ERA: 4.13 — K%: 18.5% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 4.09 — ERA: 3.68 — K%: 18.0% — BB%: 6.6% — HR/9: 0.6

Colorado Rockies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 18)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 11)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Anderson is pitching in Coors Field. I could go into a long explanation as to why that is a problem, but if you have ever read the Grind Down (or any other daily fantasy baseball article), then you know why.

Pitcher Rating: 43.5


Jonathan Gray : FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 21.0 — SIERA: 3.92 — ERA: 6.00 — K%: 21.1% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 21.0 — SIERA: 3.92 — ERA: 6.00 — K%: 21.1% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 0.9

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: See: Chase Anderson.

Pitcher Rating: 45.3

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have had no problems scoring runs in this series in Coors Field. They should be able to add to their total tonight, as they square off against rookie Jon Gray. Left and right-handed hitters are both in play here. Load up on Diamondbacks’ bats in both cash games and tournaments.

Elite Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt : FD: $5,500 — DK: $6,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 834 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 113

A.J. Pollock : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 652 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.158 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 160

David Peralta : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 618 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.217 — wRC+: 139
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.217 — wRC+: 166

Secondary Plays:

Jake Lamb : FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 369 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 97
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.124 — wRC+: 89

Phil Gosselin : FD: $2,400 — DK: $2,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.291 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 83
Last 30 Days: PA: 12 — wOBA: 0.509 — ISO: 0.500 — wRC+: 226


Colorado

The Rockies have the second-highest team total on the night, as they square off against Chase Anderson at home. Anderson has not fared well against left or right-handed hitters this season. If there is one game to load up on tonight, this is it.

Elite Plays:

Carlos Gonzalez : FD: $4,700 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 552 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 129
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 110

Nolan Arenado : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 749 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.253 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 107

Ben Paulsen : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 322 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 80

Secondary Plays:

Charlie Blackmon : FD: $4,700 — DK: $5,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 903 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 112
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.168 — wRC+: 92

Jose Reyes : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 783 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 99
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 90

DJ LeMahieu : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 797 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.099 — wRC+: 80
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 76


Texas at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST

Texas San Diego
texasmlb Cole Hamels sandiegomlb Ian Kennedy
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX (-116) 6.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.220 0.652 0.296 0.206 SP vs. Left 0.235 0.736 0.319 0.248
SP vs. Right 0.236 0.655 0.288 0.255 SP vs. Right 0.252 0.739 0.324 0.230
Batter Splits TEX BvP TEX vs R Batter Splits SDP BvP SD vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels : FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 368.0 — SIERA: 3.35 — ERA: 3.01 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.2 — SIERA: 3.86 — ERA: 3.89 — K%: 23.4% — BB%: 9.2% — HR/9: 1.3

San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 23.4% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.347 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 13)

Analysis: Hamels has to be excited for tonight’s game against the Padres. Not only does he get to face a strikeout-happy offense, but he gets to face them in a National League park under National League rules. His high price tag should scare some people away from him tonight, which makes him an excellent tournament play. That said, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey are still better options in cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 82.2


Ian Kennedy : FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 335.2 — SIERA: 3.59 — ERA: 3.75 — K%: 23.9% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 3.54 — ERA: 2.30 — K%: 27.9% — BB%: 10.1% — HR/9: 0.9

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Kennedy has been in great form recently, posting a 3.54 SIERA (2.30 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 27.9% over the last month of play. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Rangers, but he gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Much like Cole Hamels, he is a better target for tournaments than he is for cash games, but he certainly deserves consideration tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 72.3

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers draw a decent matchup tonight against Ian Kennedy, but they see a negative ballpark shift playing in Petco Park. A highly discounted Prince Fielder is a borderline elite play, while the rest of the Rangers are secondary options.

Elite Plays:

Prince Fielder : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 451 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 83

Secondary Plays:

Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 692 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 141


San Diego

The Padres’ offense has been better recently, but they can safely be avoided tonight against Cole Hamels. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


San Francisco at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

San Francisco LA Dodgers
sanfranciscomlb Mike Leake ladodgersmlb Clayton Kershaw
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD (-240) 6
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.274 0.763 0.334 0.149 SP vs. Left 0.199 0.53 0.235 0.336
SP vs. Right 0.226 0.643 0.282 0.2 SP vs. Right 0.196 0.53 0.236 0.322
Batter Splits SFG BvP SF vs L Batter Splits LAD BvP LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake : FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 369.2 — SIERA: 3.68 — ERA: 3.63 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 18.2 — SIERA: 3.33 — ERA: 3.38 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 1.0

Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.256 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% (Rank: 25)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Leake has enjoyed his move to San Francisco thus far, posting a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.8% over the last month of play. He draws a tough matchup tonight though, as the Dodgers are ranked third in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. With Clayton Kershaw pitching opposite him, Leake would need a gem just to give himself a chance at picking up the win.

Pitcher Rating: 59.4


Clayton Kershaw : FD: $13,300 — DK: $14,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 383.1 — SIERA: 2.15 — ERA: 2.00 — K%: 32.5% — BB%: 4.4% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 45.0 — SIERA: 2.41 — ERA: 1.40 — K%: 30.5% — BB%: 3.6% — HR/9: 0.4

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 16)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Surprise, surprise! Kershaw is the top pitching option on the board tonight. He has been close to unhittable over the last month of play, posting a 2.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.5%. Even though his matchup against the Giants isn’t ideal, this is still Clayton Kershaw that we are talking about. The fact that he gets to face them at home only helps his cause. I will say this once again, fade Kershaw at your own risk tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 99.2

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are facing Clayton Kershaw tonight. He is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. Avoid the Giants, avoid the Giants, avoid the Giants.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Mike Leake, who has given up a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. A deep discount on Adrian Gonzalez puts him in play as an elite first baseman tonight. Jimmy Rollins and Andre Ethier are secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 878 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.236 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 108 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 99

Secondary Plays:

Jimmy Rollins : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,000

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 837 — wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 87
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.119 — wRC+: 81

Andre Ethier : FD: $2,300 — DK: $2,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 661 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 166


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious