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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-24 04:56:30

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Orlando Magic
Article Image Vegas Total 213.0 Article Image Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 107.8 Team Total 105.3
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- 0.8
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Ed Davis Meyers Leonard Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Jeff Green Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 25 18 12 18 Adj. DvP 10 23 15 26 21
DRPM -1.00 -0.93 -1.45 -0.82 2.10 DRPM -1.93 -2.03 0.18 0.14 0.30

Portland Trail Blazers

The wait is finally over. We have a six game slate on tap tonight, but it is one that could change drastically throughout the day. The trade deadline is at 3:00 PM ET and anyone that is traded today will be unavailable tonight, which could open up even more value. There haven’t been many trade rumors surrounding the Blazers, although Damian Lillard posted a cryptic Tweet that he deleted seconds later. Even without a trade, the Blazers will be short-handed tonight, as Evan Turner and Al-Farouq Aminu have both been ruled out. The Blazers come into the game as 2.5-point favorites against the Magic with an implied total of 107.8 points. We have been targeting players against Orlando all season and there is no reason for that to change tonight.

Damian Lillard sees a nice usage boost with Mason Plumlee (traded to Denver) off the floor and he is only helped by the fact that the Blazers will also be without Turner and Aminu. He draws an excellent individual matchup against Elfrid Payton, who has a DRPM (Defensive Real Plus-Minus) of -1.00. As a whole, Orlando is ranked 25th in adjusted DvP against point guards. C.J. McCollum also draws a nice matchup, although his price is close enough to Lillard’s that I prefer going up to Dame if given the choice.

Maurice Harkless could be in line for a ton of minutes tonight and he is cheap across the industry. He is one of the best value plays at small forward, although there are a handful of better values overall. With Aminu out, Ed Davis, Meyers Leonard, and Jusuf Nurkic should all be in line for a minute boost. Nurkic is my favorite of the bunch, as he is averaging a fantasy point per minute this season and posted 27 fantasy points in his debut with the Blazers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,300 $8,400 1.11 35.9 2.7 39.7 -4.2 32.1% -1.7% 25 -1.00
C.J. McCollum $7,600 $7,500 0.99 34.5 -0.2 34.1 -5.3 28.3% 3.0% 25 -0.93
Maurice Harkless $4,600 $4,500 0.72 28.9 -2.1 20.7 4.0 15.9% -0.5% 18 -1.45
Ed Davis $3,700 $3,800 0.72 17.2 6.0 12.4 9.7 11.7% 4.9% 12 -0.82
Meyers Leonard $3,500 $3,300 0.69 16.3 5.4 11.2 1.4 16.4% -2.5% 18 2.10
Jusuf Nurkic $3,700 $4,300 1.00 18.0 3.3 18.0 8.9 22.7% -1.2% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless, Jusuf Nurkic (Cash)

Orlando Magic

The Magic already made a big trade by shipping Serge Ibaka to Toronto for Terrence Ross. There have also been rumors about a deal for Reggie Jackson, but it sounds like talks have been fading on that front. Orlando may not be headed anywhere fast, but they draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Blazers. On the season, Portland is ranked 26th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Magic have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is 5.8 points above their season average.

Elfrid Payton has been in and out of the starting lineup this season, but is currently listed as the projected starter with C.J. Watson status in doubt. If Payton draws the start, he would immediately become a viable play in all formats. Damian Lillard has never been known for his play on the defensive end of the floor and the Magic have one of the highest projected point differentials in the slate.

Evan Fournier had some big outings before the break and is still underpriced on FanDuel at $5,400. On a site where we have to roster two shooting guards, he stands out as a terrific value. Speaking of value, I expect Aaron Gordon to go on a tear now that Serge Ibaka is in Toronto. I predict that Gordon’s salary will be above $6,000 in the next couple of weeks. I will be playing him nearly every night until that happens. Jeff Green should also benefit from Ibaka’s absence, but Terrence Ross is expected to make his Magic debut tonight. Until we know what their rotation at small forward is going to look like, I will be avoiding Green and Ross in cash games. Nikola Vucevic may not have 35-minute upside, but he is facing a Blazers’ defense that is ranked 21st against centers and 23rd in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $5,600 $5,200 0.91 29.1 -1.8 26.5 -9.1 25.6% 0.2% 10 -1.93
Evan Fournier $5,400 $6,000 0.78 33.1 -0.2 25.8 -2.4 24.1% 0.6% 23 -2.03
Jeff Green $3,600 $3,700 0.65 23.2 0.1 15.1 1.2 19.9% 1.8% 15 0.18
Aaron Gordon $4,500 $4,900 0.76 27.6 3.5 20.9 0.1 19.5% -1.1% 26 0.14
Nikola Vucevic $7,200 $7,100 1.13 28.5 0.6 32.2 -2.5 25.0% -1.2% 21 0.30
D.J. Augustin $3,500 $3,000 0.69 20.7 -0.6 14.3 -7.1 21.3% -4.7% 10 N/A
Terrence Ross $3,500 $3,800 0.76 22.3 -3.9 16.9 -3.3 18.7% -4.5% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (if he starts), Evan Fournier (FD), Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (if he comes off the bench), Evan Fournier (DK), Jeff Green (if he starts)

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Detroit Pistons
Article Image Vegas Total 207.0 Article Image Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 16 4 3 13 12 Adj. DvP 17 20 26 18 25
DRPM -2.54 0.03 1.01 1.17 1.75 DRPM -0.53 -0.06 2.31 0.28 0.35

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are expected to be fairly quiet through the trade deadline. There were some reports that they were actively pursuing Lou Williams, but he is obviously in Houston now. The Hornets are a team trending in the wrong direction. Before the break, they lost nine of their previous ten games and are slowly slipping out of playoff contention in the East. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Charlotte has the lowest implied total in the slate at only 101.5 points.

This is not a spot where we should get carried away with the Hornets. Kemba Walker draws the best matchup of the five starters, but he typically plays better at home and he is listed as a point guard, which is the deepest position in all of fantasy basketball. Walker’s salary is affordable, but he’s more of a tournament play in this slate. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist find themselves in difficult matchups against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris, who are both above-average defenders. The only plays that I will be actively targeting from Charlotte are in the frontcourt. With Miles Plumlee and Cody Zeller out, Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams should both see minutes in the low to mid 30s. Even at his elevated price point, Kaminsky is a borderline elite play in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,700 $7,700 1.06 34.3 6.5 36.4 1.2 30.1% -5.8% 16 -2.54
Nicolas Batum $7,200 $7,000 0.95 34.6 0.7 33.0 -2.0 23.5% -0.7% 4 0.03
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,600 $4,900 0.77 29.7 3.2 22.9 1.2 14.3% -3.5% 3 1.01
Marvin Williams $5,100 $4,700 0.74 28.5 6.9 21.2 -5.5 16.6% -5.7% 13 1.17
Frank Kaminsky $6,000 $6,300 0.83 25.0 11.8 20.9 17.7 21.2% 1.7% 12 1.75

Elite Plays – Frank Kaminsky

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Marvin Williams

Detroit Pistons

As the trade deadline approaches, the Pistons are fielding offers on two players that were previously considered untouchable – Andre Drummond and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Obviously, if either player ends up being dealt, it would create some value plays for tonight’s game against the Hornets. This is a mediocre matchup overall, but the Hornets are a much better defensive team at home than they are on the road. The Pistons come into tonight’s game as 4-point favorites with an implied total of 105.5 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.

Ish Smith has outplayed Reggie Jackson over the last two weeks, but has only played more than 21 minutes one time in the last eight games. It’s hard to trust either of the Pistons’ point guards at this point, unless one of them is moved before the deadline. Caldwell-Pope has struggled with his shot recently, but stands out as a nice value at shooting guard. Assuming he doesn’t get traded, he will play 33-35 minutes against a Hornets’ team that is ranked 20th against shooting guards this season.

Marcus Morris grades out as a nice value play, but I prefer Aaron Gordon dollar for dollar. Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris are intriguing tournament plays, but they both cut into each other’s minutes and fantasy production. My favorite play from Detroit is Andre Drummond, who should be able to dominate the paint against a depleted Hornets’ frontcourt. Drummond scored at least 35 fantasy points in five of his six games before the break.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,500 $5,400 0.91 28.4 -3.1 25.8 -4.2 29.7% -5.3% 17 -0.53
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,900 $4,900 0.71 33.8 3.0 24.1 -4.8 19.9% 2.2% 20 -0.06
Marcus Morris $5,800 $5,200 0.73 33.0 2.7 24.1 3.0 19.8% -1.5% 26 2.31
Jon Leuer $4,700 $4,600 0.79 27.0 2.1 21.3 -1.3 17.2% -1.6% 18 0.28
Andre Drummond $8,300 $7,600 1.20 30.5 -3.6 36.5 -4.4 22.4% 3.5% 25 0.35
Tobias Harris $5,400 $4,800 0.82 31.6 -6.7 25.9 -3.8 21.6% 2.5% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK), Marcus Morris

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets New Orleans Pelicans
Article Image Vegas Total 227.0 Article Image Vegas Total 227.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 115.5 Team Total 111.5
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- 2.9
Proj. Starter James Harden Patrick Beverley Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday E’Twaun Moore Solomon Hill Anthony Davis DeMarcus Cousins
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 29 13 11 22 26 Adj. DvP 8 24 19 16 28
DRPM 0.95 -1.58 1.35 3.51 0.19 DRPM -1.59 1.37 1.79 -0.72 0.23

Houston Rockets

The Rockets made an excellent move to acquire Lou Williams from the Lakers. They are now fully committed to the mindset that they are going to have to put up 115-120 points a night to win basketball games. There have been some rumors that Patrick Beverley could be traded, but at the moment, a deal involving him sounds unlikely. The Rockets are the first team in the league to play against the newly-equipped Pelicans. New Orleans has been a nice matchup to exploit this season, but now have one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA. Houston comes into the game as 4-point favorites with an implied total of 115 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

James Harden is the top overall play in the slate, even though the Pelicans now have two elite rim protectors in Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. With all of the value currently available (and potentially more opening up), it’s fairly easy to fit Harden into your lineups on FanDuel. DraftKings may be another story, but you can certainly make it work. Keep an eye on the availability of Lou Williams. If he doesn’t suit up tonight, Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, and Eric Gordon would all become viable options. This is a revenge game for Ryan Anderson, but the Pelicans should be able to exploit the mismatch with Davis. I expect a few extra minutes for Clint Capela, who offers great upside at his price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
James Harden $12,600 $12,500 1.48 36.6 0.2 54.1 2.5 38.9% 3.6% 29 0.95
Patrick Beverley $5,300 $5,300 0.83 30.5 -7.2 25.3 0.8 16.5% 8.9% 13 -1.58
Trevor Ariza $5,300 $5,600 0.73 34.6 1.6 25.3 -0.5 14.5% -0.9% 11 1.35
Ryan Anderson $4,800 $5,100 0.71 30.8 2.1 21.8 0.9 17.1% 1.2% 22 3.51
Clint Capela $5,000 $5,400 1.06 23.3 -3.4 24.8 -4.4 18.8% -0.6% 26 0.19
Eric Gordon $5,400 $5,200 0.82 30.5 1.0 25.0 -6.6 23.9% -1.5% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Clint Capela (Cash), Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon (GPP)

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans got away with the theft of the century. They acquired a franchise player in DeMarcus Cousins and they didn’t have to give up nearly as much as anyone would have expected. The question now is whether having your two best players be big men is going to work in this new age of the NBA. Anthony Davis and Cousins can both space the floor with their shooting and they are both above-average passers for big men. It would be nice to see New Orleans acquire another shooter to help space the floor even more. Many are automatically expecting the Pelicans to win the eighth seed in the West, but they are two and a half games behind the Nuggets with only 25 games to play. New Orleans gets their first test tonight, as they square off against the Rockets at home.

When two superstars play together, they typically both see a small decline in usage. Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are an exception to that rule, but both of them run the offense. It’s going to be hard for Cousins and Davis to both have a usage rate near 30%, but they will certainly be the focal points of this offense. I also expect them to stagger their minutes so that one of them is on the floor at all times. The biggest usage hit will come from Jrue Holiday, who is now the third option offensively. I love the Pelicans’ matchup against the Rockets, but I typically like to know what to expect before targeting players in DFS. Holiday is an easy fade in my eyes, but Davis and Cousins have massive upside in this matchup and are elite tournament plays. The only other option on my radar here is E’Twaun Moore, who is expected to start at shooting guard. He should be in line for a heavy workload with Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway, and Tyreke Evans all in Sacramento.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $8,100 $7,500 1.04 32.3 4.1 33.7 4.4 27.7% -2.7% 8 -1.59
E’Twaun Moore $3,600 $3,400 0.69 24.7 -3.5 17.1 -4.0 18.2% 4.1% 24 1.37
Solomon Hill $4,200 $3,900 0.54 28.5 5.7 15.4 4.4 11.5% 0.7% 19 1.79
Anthony Davis $10,600 $10,200 1.38 36.4 3.6 50.3 -8.7 30.3% -2.8% 16 -0.72
DeMarcus Cousins $11,000 $11,000 1.43 34.4 -2.9 49.3 -0.5 36.0% 2.5% 28 0.23

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (GPP), DeMarcus Cousins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (Cash), DeMarcus Cousins (Cash), E’Twaun Moore

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Cleveland Cavaliers
Article Image Vegas Total 223.0 Article Image Vegas Total 223.0
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 116.5
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Willy Hernangomez Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Channing Frye Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 26 21 24 9 10 Adj. DvP 12 19 20 29 16
DRPM -1.82 -0.06 0.80 -0.93 1.91 DRPM -3.06 -1.14 -1.92 1.64 1.41

New York Knicks

The Knicks have been involved in trade rumors for a couple of months now. It seems unlikely that they would trade Carmelo Anthony this close to the deadline, but talks are heating up between the Wolves and Knicks regarding a swap of point guards. The Knicks draw a decent matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked below the league average in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Knicks may be sizable underdogs here, but they do have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

For what it’s worth, Derrick Rose took part in this morning’s shootaround. There are a few different scenarios here. If Rose is active and Brandon Jennings is out, Rose becomes an elite tournament play. If Rose is out and Jennings is active, Jennings becomes an elite play. And finally, if Rose and Jennings are both out, Courtney Lee and Ron Baker would deserve consideration. It’s going to be a wait and see approach for the Knicks’ guards. Carmelo Anthony has struggled in his last three meetings against LeBron James, but had previously had a lot of success in their battles. Anthony is more of a DraftKings-specific play tonight at $7,800.

Kristaps Porzingis benefits from Kevin Love being out, as Channing Frye has a DRPM of -0.93 this season. Porzingis makes an excellent tournament play. Willy Hernangomez is averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute and could see 30+ minutes with Joakim Noah out. The only knock on Hernangomez is the multitude of options at his position tonight. Kosta Koufos, Jusuf Nurkic, and Willie Cauley-Stein (DK) are all great values at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,200 $6,100 0.90 32.2 -0.1 28.8 1.1 28.0% -2.1% 26 -1.82
Courtney Lee $4,500 $4,000 0.60 31.3 3.7 18.9 4.5 14.3% 1.3% 21 -0.06
Carmelo Anthony $8,600 $7,800 1.06 34.0 3.9 35.9 5.3 29.5% -1.3% 24 0.80
Kristaps Porzingis $6,600 $6,600 0.98 33.1 1.1 32.4 -3.6 23.2% -3.6% 9 -0.93
Willy Hernangomez $5,800 $5,700 1.01 15.7 7.6 15.8 9.3 18.9% -3.1% 10 1.91
Brandon Jennings $5,000 $4,000 0.78 25.0 3.4 19.6 -0.1 22.0% -8.7% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony (DK), Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (Cash), Willy Hernangomez

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are unlikely to make an impact trade today, given their lack of pieces to move. I do expect them to make a couple of acquisitions after each team goes through their buy-outs. Andrew Bogut is a name that has been mentioned a few times. The Cavaliers will be short-handed again tonight, as they will be without two of their starters in Kevin Love and J.R. Smith. The good news is that they should be able to take care of the Knicks rather easily. Cleveland is listed as a 10-point favorite and they come into the game with an implied total of 116.5 points. Not only is their team total the second highest in the slate, but it is also 5.2 points above their season average.

With such a high implied total, it’s hard to pass up the chance to roster Kyrie Irving with Kevin Love out. He sees a massive usage boost with Love off the floor and he draws a terrific matchup against whoever the Knicks’ starting point guard is going to be. Irving is my favorite point guard in the slate and I will be targeting him in both cash games and tournaments. LeBron James doesn’t see a big usage boost with Love out, but his fantasy production per minute goes up. James should also be considered an elite play against this awful Knicks’ defense. Channing Frye has played 33 and 30 minutes in the last two games and should play well again tonight. I expect him to fly under the radar with all of the value available, which makes him an elite tournament play. Tristan Thompson has played well in his last three games, averaging 36 minutes and 30 fantasy points per contest. The issue here is the same as it is for Willy Hernangomez. There are so many viable center options that it’s hard to pay a premium for Thompson in this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,700 1.05 35.2 0.3 37.1 3.4 31.7% 2.3% 12 -3.06
Iman Shumpert $3,700 $3,500 0.60 25.4 0.2 15.1 -5.3 13.9% -0.7% 19 -1.14
LeBron James $11,200 $10,300 1.28 37.5 -2.4 48.0 -1.4 32.9% -0.3% 20 -1.92
Channing Frye $5,400 $5,500 0.86 18.5 6.3 15.9 4.9 19.2% -1.7% 29 1.64
Tristan Thompson $6,300 $5,800 0.79 30.0 5.8 23.6 6.6 11.1% 1.8% 16 1.41
Kyle Korver $4,300 $4,600 0.64 27.0 -0.7 17.2 7.8 14.9% 1.3% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Channing Frye (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Channing Frye (Cash), Tristan Thompson

Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Sacramento Kings
Article Image Vegas Total 220.5 Article Image Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread -7.0 Vegas Spread 7.0
Team Total 113.8 Team Total 106.8
Pace +/- -2.1 Pace +/- 1.9
Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Wilson Chandler Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Darren Collison Ben McLemore Arron Afflalo Anthony Tolliver Kosta Koufos
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 27 9 15 4 Adj. DvP 28 29 25 19 13
DRPM -2.03 -1.30 -2.62 -1.02 2.77 DRPM -1.20 -1.85 -0.14 -1.45 1.12

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets made a big move to bring Mason Plumlee in before the All-Star break and it appears that they aren’t done making moves just yet. Wilson Chandler is a hot commodity right now and with all of the talented wing players in Denver, it makes sense for them to sell high. I wish this game was a little earlier because half of the Nuggets are listed as questionable. Most of their players made it through practice yesterday, but we can’t trust anyone that is listed as questionable leading up to lineup lock. The Nuggets draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Cousins-less Kings, who will likely drop in every defensive category moving forward. The Nuggets have an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 3.2 points above their season average.

Emmanuel Mudiay is listed as questionable tonight, but even if he plays, he will be coming off the bench. Jameer Nelson has passed him on the depth chart. Nelson would be a great play tonight if we knew that Mudiay was going to miss the game, but it sounds like he is closer to probable than questionable. For now, we can avoid the point guard situation in Sacramento. Gary Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Will Barton, and Wilson Chandler all have fantasy appeal in this matchup, but they all cut into each other’s minutes and fantasy production. If Chandler ends up being dealt, the other three would see a sizable fantasy boost. Nikola Jokic is far and away my favorite play here. The Kings do not rebound the ball well and are now without their best low post defender. Jokic should be able to dominate the paint on both ends of the floor. His price is up there, but the value in this slate makes it easy to fit a couple of superstars into our lineups. Mason Plumlee played well in his first game with the Nuggets. With Kenneth Faried questionable, Plumlee could see minutes in the mid 20s.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jameer Nelson $5,600 $6,500 0.73 26.3 9.0 19.1 16.9 19.9% 1.9% 11 -2.03
Gary Harris $5,200 $5,200 0.78 28.7 4.3 22.4 1.9 19.6% 1.8% 27 -1.30
Danilo Gallinari $6,900 $5,500 0.78 34.2 26.8 19.5% 9 -2.62
Wilson Chandler $6,600 $6,800 0.89 30.9 3.1 27.5 -8.8 22.5% 0.4% 15 -1.02
Nikola Jokic $10,900 $10,500 1.29 26.9 9.0 34.7 16.3 25.0% 2.8% 4 2.77
Mason Plumlee $5,900 $5,100 1.03 28.2 3.8 29.2 -3.3 19.8% -3.0% 4 N/A
Will Barton $6,400 $7,600 0.88 29.1 4.9 25.7 8.2 22.4% 1.0% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic

Secondary Plays – Jameer Nelson, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Mason Plumlee (DK)

Sacramento Kings

The Kings traded away their franchise player in DeMarcus Cousins. But don’t worry Kings’ fans, they got back Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, and Buddy Hield. You could argue that the Kings are in as bad of a situation as the Nets now. I understand wanting to get something for Cousins, but how on Earth do you not get anything significant in return? Sacramento will be short-handed tonight, as they are expected to trade Arron Afflalo and waive Matt Barnes. Their new acquisitions will be thrown into the fire immediately. The good news is that they are facing one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, Denver is ranked 28th in points allowed per game and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Kings have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is a massive team total given their current roster construction.

Darren Collison was playing his best basketball before the break and should pick up right where he left off. With Cousins traded and the Kings short-handed, he becomes close to a must play tonight on FanDuel at a price of only $5,500. He is a much easier fade on DraftKings at $7,400. Ty Lawson is expected tonight and makes for a nice tournament play off the bench. Tyreke Evans is expected to stay on his restriction of 27 minutes per game, but that’s more than enough to reach value against a bad Nuggets’ defense. Ben McLemore and Buddy Hield both make intriguing tournament plays, especially if the Kings are officially going to be without Afflalo and Barnes. With Cousins out of town, there are plenty of minutes, rebounds, and usage to go around in the Kings’ frontcourt. Kosta Koufos averages over 20 fantasy points per game without Cousins and Willie Cauley-Stein should see minutes in the mid 20s. Both are on my radar tonight and you can play both of them together. Anthony Tolliver should also see big minutes here, but I prefer the upside with Koufos and WCS.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,500 $7,400 0.75 30.9 5.3 23.2 5.0 21.9% 2.1% 28 -1.20
Ben McLemore $4,000 $4,500 0.55 17.9 13.6 9.9 6.2 18.1% -3.0% 29 -1.85
Arron Afflalo $3,500 $3,600 0.48 25.6 2.8 12.2 1.6 14.0% -2.7% 25 -0.14
Anthony Tolliver $3,600 $3,900 0.61 23.2 0.8 14.1 0.5 13.1% 2.3% 19 -1.45
Kosta Koufos $3,500 $3,500 0.78 19.1 -1.6 15.0 -3.2 14.1% -1.3% 13 1.12
Willie Cauley-Stein $3,800 $3,600 0.86 13.0 6.1 11.2 7.5 19.0% 6.3% 19 N/A
Ty Lawson $4,600 $4,100 0.79 24.6 19.5 22.2% 28 N/A
Tyreke Evans $4,500 $4,200 1.07 18.2 4.1 19.4 0.3 30.6% -4.8% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Tyreke Evans, Kosta Koufos, Willie Cauley-Stein

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (DK), Ty Lawson, Ben McLemore (GPP), Buddy Hield (GPP)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious