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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-17 03:48:18

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Anthony Davis has been ruled OUT tonight. Terrence Jones is starting in his place.

New Orleans Pelicans Orlando Magic
neworleansnba Vegas Total 202.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 103.3
Pace +/- -3.4 Pace +/- 1.9
Proj. Starter Tim Frazier E’Twaun Moore Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Jeff Green Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 25 15 16 14 27 2016-17 17 27 27 27 6

New Orleans Pelicans

Editor’s Note: Anthony Davis has been ruled OUT tonight. Terrence Jones is starting in his place.

The Pelicans have a better record than one team in the NBA this season. There is some light at the end of the tunnel though, as it sounds like Jrue Holiday could return to the lineup on Friday. The Pelicans have played at a quick pace this season, but are still ranked below the league average in points scored per game. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic in what should be a fairly low scoring game. The Pelicans are 4-point underdogs with the over/under set at 202.5 points. New Orleans has an implied total of only 99.3 points, which is the fourth lowest of the 22 teams in action tonight.

This could the the last game for Tim Frazier to be the primary point guard in the Pelicans’ offense. With Jrue Holiday imminent return, Frazier will eventually come off the bench as the backup. His minutes have been consistent recently (29+ in five straight games), but his production has been down. He’s far from a must play in an 11-game slate, but he is still worth a look on FanDuel at only $5,400. The Magic are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Anthony Davis scares me every time he goes up to block a shot or grab a rebound. He hurt his back on Saturday against the Lakers and then he hurt his knee Monday against the Celtics. With James Harden and Russell Westbrook in such great spots tonight, I will be fading Davis in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Tim Frazier $5,400 $5,900 $9,600 0.93 29.9 1.0 27.8 -2.7 23.5% -1.1% 25
E’Twaun Moore $4,500 $4,200 $7,500 0.67 29.9 -1.5 20.1 0.2 19.5% 3.5% 15
Dante Cunningham $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.53 21.6 -1.6 11.4 0.5 12.3% -0.4% 16
Anthony Davis $11,400 $10,900 $15,900 1.43 37.7 0.5 53.8 -3.3 31.6% 2.6% 14
Omer Asik $3,500 $3,000 $7,400 0.69 18.0 -3.0 12.3 -1.3 9.6% 1.9% 27
Buddy Hield $3,900 $3,500 $7,600 0.71 21.2 0.0 15.1 0.9 23.9% -3.3% 15
Langston Galloway $3,900 $3,400 $6,500 0.79 20.0 2.3 15.8 5.7 20.8% 3.4% 25

Editor’s Note: Anthony Davis has been ruled OUT tonight. Terrence Jones is starting in his place.

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (Cash), Tim Frazier

Orlando Magic

The Magic have been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season, but they draw a pace-up matchup against Pelicans. Orlando has had a shaky start to the year, but they are listed as 4-point favorites tonight at home. This is a favorable matchup by all accounts, as the Pelicans are ranked 27th in points allowed per game, 28th in rebounding differential, and 27th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Magic’s implied total is at 103.3 points, which is 10.7 points above their season average. Basically, we can give their entire offense a 10% boost tonight.

Elfrid Payton has been too inconsistent for my liking, but is in a great spot tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 17th against point guards this season. Payton is still priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he leads the Magic in true usage rate. I hesitate to call him an elite cash game play given the wealth of options at point guard, but he’s certainly an elite tournament play. Evan Fournier is averaging 35.8 minutes and 27.8 fantasy points in his last three games. He is a strong cash game option at shooting guard and I expect his ownership to be low. Jeff Green and Aaron Gordon are splitting minutes and can both be avoided. Serge Ibaka has to match up against Anthony Davis, which takes him out of play. Nikola Vucevic has seen a major decrease in minutes recently. While I’ve been a Vucevic truther in the past, I can’t find a spot for him if he is is only playing 25-28 minutes a game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Elfrid Payton $5,800 $5,800 $9,800 0.86 30.4 -0.4 26.2 2.0 24.8% -1.4% 17
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,700 $9,600 0.72 34.0 1.8 24.6 3.2 24.0% -0.3% 27
Jeff Green $3,600 $3,600 $7,100 0.69 21.7 2.8 15.0 -3.0 19.4% -6.1% 27
Serge Ibaka $5,700 $5,400 $10,300 0.83 29.1 2.7 24.1 5.0 20.6% 3.5% 27
Nikola Vucevic $6,500 $5,900 $10,500 1.07 27.0 -3.5 28.8 -11.9 24.1% -0.6% 6
Aaron Gordon $5,200 $5,200 $9,200 0.82 27.8 -5.1 22.8 -3.5 20.0% 0.7% 27
Bismack Biyombo $4,200 $4,000 $7,800 0.76 22.5 1.6 17.2 1.1 13.0% 0.6% 6

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

ALERT: LeBron James (rest) has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers
clevelandnba Vegas Total 212.5 indiananba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 108.3 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 0.8
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 15 18 16 16 23 2016-17 10 22 14 1 20

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are coming off of a nice win against the Raptors last night in Cleveland. They now have a quick turnaround, as they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers. Cleveland is only ranked 12th in pace of play this season, yet they average the second most points per game. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against a Pacers’ defense that is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate.

ALERT: LeBron James (rest) has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Even though this is the second half of a back-to-back, the Cavaliers’ offense is in a great spot thanks to the low spread and the matchup against the Pacers. Kyrie Irving continues to be a great play in the mid-$7,000 range. He is averaging just under 35 minutes and fantasy points per game this season and he has a true usage rate of 31.6%. Jeff Teague has historically been a solid defender, but the Pacers are ranked 15th against point guards. LeBron James had a monster game against the Raptors last night. While I prefer Russell Westbrook and James Harden over James, he is a good bet for 45+ fantasy points and small forward is always a thin position. Kevin Love has been much more involved offensively this season, averaging 36.3 fantasy points per game. He draws an exploitable matchup against Thaddeus Young. If J.R. Smith is unable to play tonight, people may gravitate to Iman Shumpert, but if anything, it may give a small usage to Irving and Love.

Notable Fantasy Players

ALERT: LeBron James (rest) has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyrie Irving $7,400 $7,600 $12,000 0.99 34.6 -1.8 34.4 0.3 31.6% 0.7% 15
J.R. Smith $4,300 $4,300 $8,500 0.62 31.9 2.7 19.9 3.9 14.8% 0.0% 18
LeBron James $9,900 $9,800 $14,800 1.30 37.0 1.3 48.0 0.8 32.4% 0.7% 16
Kevin Love $7,500 $7,800 $11,700 1.11 32.7 -1.3 36.3 0.5 26.0% -1.8% 16
Tristan Thompson $4,600 $4,700 $8,300 0.79 28.1 -0.6 22.3 1.7 8.1% 1.6% 23
Iman Shumpert $3,900 $4,000 $6,900 0.68 23.8 5.1 16.1 1.0 13.8% -0.4% 18

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – LeBron James (DK), Tristan Thompson

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are 0-5 on the road this season, but they sport a 5-1 record at home. They are currently ranked tenth in pace and 12th in points scored per game. They come into tonight’s game as 4-point underdogs against the Cavaliers with the over/under set at 212.5 points. Even though the Cavaliers’ defense has been stout this season, they are playing their second game in as many nights and they have gotten involved in a number of shootouts. The Pacers have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is right around the average of the 22 teams in action tonight.

Jeff Teague has played well this season, but his price has ascended to an unplayable level, especially in a matchup against the Cavaliers. Kyrie Irving may not be an elite on-ball defender, but the Cavaliers are ranked tenth against point guards. Monta Ellis is expected to remain in the starting lineup moving forward. He has seen a nice usage boost in his last few games, which is what I’ve been waiting for. He’s a decent GPP option tonight. In his last three meetings against LeBron James, Paul George has scored 43, 28, and 50 fantasy points. No one is going to be on George tonight, but I may have a share or two in tournaments. The Pacers will need a big game from him if they are going to beat the defending champions. C.J. Miles has been a spark plug off the bench, but is only playable on FanDuel. Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young aren’t seeing enough minutes to deserve fantasy consideration.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeff Teague $6,300 $6,500 $10,400 0.92 31.2 1.7 28.8 -0.7 26.6% -2.3% 10
Monta Ellis $5,500 $5,200 $9,500 0.69 33.9 1.8 23.3 5.1 18.5% 3.8% 22
Paul George $8,500 $7,900 $13,200 1.03 34.5 2.8 35.5 3.2 26.5% -1.4% 14
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,200 $9,900 0.80 28.8 0.4 23.2 1.7 15.0% 0.1% 1
Myles Turner $6,100 $6,200 $11,000 1.09 27.0 -2.2 29.5 -6.0 20.5% -1.7% 20
C.J. Miles $4,600 $5,500 $8,200 0.96 24.0 4.5 23.0 0.5 20.4% -3.8% 14

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul George (GPP), Monta Ellis (GPP), C.J. Miles (FD)

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Philadelphia 76ers
washingtonnba Vegas Total 206.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 101.0
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- -1.0
Proj. Starter John Wall Marcus Thornton Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 22 29 30 15 24 2016-17 1 25 23 18 10

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are only 2-7 to start the season, but they have a good chance to pick up their third win tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are one of the few teams that Washington has a better record than. The Sixers provide our favorite combination for fantasy production – they play at an above-average pace and they struggle defensively. The Wizards are 4-point favorites tonight on the road with an implied total of 105 points. Their total is considerably higher than their average points per game of 99.9 points this season.

John Wall has the fifth highest true usage rate in the NBA, trailing only Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Joel Embiid, and DeMar DeRozan. With Bradley Beal out, Wall should see a usage boost tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked 22nd against point guards. The one concern with Wall is that Scott Brooks said he will monitor his minutes in the front end of a back-to-back. Otto Porter should also see a boost with Bradley Beal out. I want to fade Porter at this price, but given the matchup and his recent usage, he’s in play on FanDuel where we need to roster two small forwards. Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat are both elite plays in this matchup. The Sixers have not defended the paint well and they are ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
John Wall $8,900 $9,200 $12,800 1.18 34.1 -1.1 40.2 -6.7 36.6% 2.9% 22
Marcus Thornton $3,600 $4,400 $6,500 0.67 19.9 6.0 13.4 4.9 20.6% 0.6% 29
Otto Porter $6,300 $6,500 $9,600 0.88 34.1 -0.6 30.0 7.7 17.4% 4.5% 30
Markieff Morris $5,900 $6,100 $9,100 0.84 33.0 -1.7 27.7 2.8 21.5% 1.5% 15
Marcin Gortat $6,400 $6,400 $9,700 0.87 34.4 -3.5 30.1 0.3 14.3% 1.2% 24
Tomas Satoransky $3,700 $4,600 $6,600 0.63 18.4 9.2 11.6 8.3 17.3% 1.2% 29

Elite Plays – John Wall, Markieff Morris (FD), Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris (DK), Otto Porter (FD)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers own the worst record in the NBA, but there are a lot of reasons to be excited about this team. Joel Embiid has been my favorite player to watch so far this season and we’ve yet to see Ben Simmons or Nerlens Noel on the floor with him. The main concern that we have with the Sixers is their inability to keep games close, but they are only 4-point underdogs tonight against the Wizards at home. The Sixers have an implied total of 101.0 points tonight. While that number is mediocre compared to the other totals, it is 5.4 points above their average points per game this season.

We are basically to the point where there is only one viable fantasy option on the Sixers and I’m extremely disappointed that the Sixers have already ruled him out of tonight’s game. I had a whole paragraph dedicated to how great of a play he was tonight, but alas, life goes on. Jahlil Okafor should crack the starting lineup and play 24 minutes. He should be heavily involved offensively and is worth a look as a GPP flier. Robert Covington is the only other player on my radar here. He got into early foul trouble against the Rockets and he played less than 20 minutes. This is a nice bounce-back spot though, as he is playing at home against a Wizards’ defense that struggles with wing players. He may also see a usage boost with Joel Embiid out. My Covington problem is well documented and I’m currently taking pills for it. However, they don’t seem to be working, as he actually grades out as one of the best small forward plays in the slate when you factor in price.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Sergio Rodriguez $5,000 $4,800 $8,600 0.79 29.6 -0.9 23.3 -2.7 23.0% -3.3% 1
Gerald Henderson $4,000 $3,600 $9,000 0.67 25.5 0.4 17.0 3.0 18.0% -0.4% 25
Robert Covington $4,600 $4,900 $9,500 0.69 28.0 -1.2 19.3 -0.9 15.8% 2.1% 23
Dario Saric $4,100 $4,500 $8,900 0.71 26.9 -0.1 19.2 1.2 20.3% 0.7% 18
Jahlil Okafor $4,600 $4,800 $8,700 0.95 19.1 -3.1 18.2 -3.7 26.8% 0.9% 10
Ersan Ilyasova $3,900 $4,100 $7,000 0.79 23.1 0.5 18.4 5.1 19.3% 1.3% 18

Elite Plays – Robert Covington

Secondary Plays – Jahlil Okafor

Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Atlanta Hawks
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 208.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 108.0
Pace +/- 3.3 Pace +/- -0.8
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Mike Muscala
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 21 14 13 5 3 2016-17 10 6 22 18 25

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have played well this season, sporting a 5-4 record. They are ranked 18th in pace of play and 17th in points scored per game. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Hawks in Atlanta. The good news is that the Hawks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Bucks come into the game as 8-point underdogs with a low implied total of 100 points. The Hawks have been a tough team to target players against this season, as they are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is typically a player that we get excited to roster in DFS, but I will have very little exposure to him tonight. There are a handful of superstars that I would roster before Antetokounmpo. The Hawks are very tough defensively. I will note that he could see a boost if Dwight Howard is ruled out. Giannis relies on his ability to get to the rim and if Howard is out, the Hawks don’t really have a great rim protector. Jason Kidd said that John Henson is the starting center moving forward, but if anything, that’s a job title that you don’t want to have under Kidd. He hates playing his starting center big minutes, so I’ll take a wait and see approach on Henson.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Giannis Antetokounmpo $9,600 $9,000 $13,800 1.32 33.4 -0.7 44.0 -5.8 30.0% -1.3% 21
Matthew Dellavedova $4,300 $4,300 $7,500 0.73 28.6 0.6 21.0 -4.0 19.0% -1.4% 14
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,400 $7,600 0.47 28.4 3.4 13.4 -3.5 14.4% -2.0% 13
Jabari Parker $6,400 $6,300 $10,300 0.93 32.2 3.9 30.0 1.7 25.9% 1.5% 5
John Henson $4,000 $3,300 $7,100 0.85 14.5 -0.8 12.4 -0.9 15.6% -0.9% 3
Greg Monroe $5,500 $4,900 $8,600 1.25 21.5 1.8 26.8 -4.2 22.7% -3.5% 3

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP)

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have looked great this season. They currently have a record of 8-2 and they have done it by being efficient on both ends of the floor. Atlanta is ranked fifth in pace of play, sixth in points scored per game, and sixth in points allowed per game. They have a point differential of +9.9 per game, which is the second best in the NBA. They are large favorites tonight against the Bucks, who are a mediocre matchup at best. Overall, this game doesn’t have a ton of fantasy appeal on paper, although the Hawks have the sixth highest implied total at 108 points.

Dwight Howard suffered a left quad contusion last night against the Heat and was unable to return to the game. He is currently listed as questionable, but coach Mike Budenholzer said Howard had some swelling after the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks hold him out of tonight’s game. If that’s the case, Mike Muscala would likely slide into the starting lineup. He is averaging 0.95 fantasy points per minute this season and would become one of the top value plays in the slate. Howard’s absence would also give a small boost to Paul Millsap, although his recent form is concerning. Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore have both flashed upside this season, but they are deep GPP targets at best tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Dennis Schroder $6,100 $6,300 $10,400 0.91 30.2 0.4 27.4 -1.8 28.6% 1.6% 10
Kyle Korver $3,600 $3,700 $7,300 0.56 26.6 1.3 15.0 -0.5 15.4% -0.2% 6
Kent Bazemore $4,800 $5,100 $8,900 0.83 28.1 -1.1 23.4 1.0 19.6% -0.1% 22
Paul Millsap $7,400 $7,400 $13,700 1.02 32.2 -0.4 32.8 -5.2 26.4% -2.8% 18
Mike Muscala $4,000 $3,600 $7,100 0.95 20.4 -1.3 19.5 2.4 15.1% 2.1% 25
Thabo Sefolosha $4,600 $4,000 $6,000 0.85 24.0 -0.8 20.3 -1.2 14.4% 1.4% 22

Elite Plays – Mike Muscala (if Dwight Howard is out)

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap, Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons New York Knicks
detroitnba Vegas Total 202.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 99.5 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- -1.7
Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Aron Baynes Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 7 30 24 13 12 2016-17 24 12 3 7 12

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are looking for their third win in a row and it looks like they could have their starting point guard back in the lineup shortly. Reggie Jackson participated in non-contact drills at practice. They are hoping to have him back in the next couple of weeks. Tonight the Pistons head to New York to take on the Knicks, who are a perennial disappointment. Vegas seems to like the Knicks in this matchup though, as the Pistons are 3-point underdogs and have a low implied total of 99.5 points. I like the Pistons chances to hit the over here, as the Knicks are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 30th in defensive efficiency on the season.

Ish Smith has been a high-floor, low-ceiling cash game target this season. He hasn’t flashed a ton of upside, but I always give point guards a boost when they get to square off against Derrick Rose. I wouldn’t consider Smith a building block tonight, but if you have $5,300 and need a point guard, I certainly don’t mind the play. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is an intriguing GPP play on FanDuel. He is almost always under-owned and he should see 35+ minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris are both fine plays at their respective positions, but neither stands out as a must start. Andre Drummond will “try to give it a go” tonight, but will likely end up being a game-time decision. If he is ruled out, give a boost to all five starters and Jon Leuer. I was hesitant to play Aron Baynes against the Thunder the other night, but he saw 30 minutes and put up 20 points and eight rebounds. Leuer also played well, scoring 25 fantasy points in 29 minutes off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ish Smith $5,300 $5,300 $8,800 0.80 29.7 0.1 23.8 0.3 25.1% -2.9% 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,800 $5,000 $8,400 0.67 33.5 2.6 22.4 1.2 18.6% 1.5% 30
Marcus Morris $5,300 $5,400 $8,600 0.79 31.6 -0.1 24.9 -4.1 21.0% -2.9% 24
Tobias Harris $6,000 $6,500 $9,300 0.80 33.3 1.4 26.6 4.1 22.3% 0.0% 13
Aron Baynes $3,700 $4,400 $6,600 0.75 16.8 6.3 12.6 2.0 14.9% -0.9% 12
Jon Leuer $4,500 $5,100 $7,100 0.81 26.8 0.9 21.7 0.2 16.3% 1.6% 13

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Aron Baynes (if Andre Drummond is out)

New York Knicks

The Knicks are only 4-6 on the season, but they do have a 3-2 record at home. They play at a slightly below-average pace and are ranked 21st in points scored per game. As I mentioned earlier, the Knicks are 3-point favorites tonight, but this is not a good matchup for fantasy production. The Pistons have been dominant defensively this season, ranking fourth in points allowed per game, third in defensive efficiency, and sixth in fantasy points allowed per game. This is also a pace-down game for New York, so I’m a little surprised to see them projected to score 102.5 points.

If you look at the DvP chart above, the only position that the Pistons have struggled to defend is point guard. Does that mean that we should target Derrick Rose tonight? Of course not. His minutes and fantasy production are both trending in the wrong direction and he has been outplayed by Brandon Jennings a number of times this season. For now, both of the Knicks’ point guards should be avoided in DFS. If you take out the game against the Celtics where he was thrown out, Carmelo Anthony has scored at least 37 fantasy points in each of his last five games. His matchup against Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope isn’t ideal, but the usage and shot volume should be high enough to overcome the poor matchup. Kristaps Porzingis makes sense as a low-owned tournament play tonight. We’ve seen the type of upside that he provides and he should have a big height advantage over Tobias Harris.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Derrick Rose $5,700 $5,500 $8,900 0.82 31.2 -0.3 25.6 -6.9 27.8% 0.6% 24
Courtney Lee $3,600 $3,700 $7,100 0.52 30.6 -1.4 15.9 -4.5 14.1% -1.7% 12
Carmelo Anthony $7,900 $7,500 $13,400 1.05 32.0 -4.4 33.7 -1.8 29.5% 1.2% 3
Kristaps Porzingis $6,900 $6,900 $11,100 1.00 31.3 -1.5 31.3 -0.7 23.0% 4.2% 7
Joakim Noah $4,500 $4,400 $8,400 0.92 23.7 -0.2 21.8 1.0 13.6% 1.1% 12

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious