NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1
Welcome back after a long offseason and what seemed an even longer wait since FanDuel released Week 1 prices. By now even the least desperate of degenerates have tinkered with countless roster constructions. What felt like tight pricing when salaries first came out has been loosened with value spawned by inevitable preseason roster turmoil. The allure of unleashing several high-priced studs in one lineup will be too tempting for some to resist. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Yet we want to do enough zigging when others zag to differentiate tournament lineups, and one path to unique roster construction is pivoting from the high-salary/low-salary approach that will be popular this week. If we can synch a less common lineup building strategy with a bit less faith in Vegas game projections than usual – line makers are typically less accurate early in the season – it can help us in our quest for differentiation without going completely off the reservation. Unless going with Jay Ajayi in Seattle is your cup of tea.
Of course, if we’re building multiple entries, it doesn’t hurt to take several approaches – and who wouldn’t want to cram Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham into the same lineup? But keep in mind our competitors have had weeks to figure out they can do it too. Four-studs is sexy, but far from sneaky.
Below are some (mostly) mid-priced options for FanDuel tournaments. Happy Week 1 and good luck, everyone.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $8,500
The only projection in Seattle less certain than Jimmy Graham’s knee is the Seahawks’ running game, and the only thing more messed up is the offensive line. As double-digit home favorites, they will run the ball – whether with a rusty Thomas Rawls or an awakened Christine Michael. Yet Miami’s line is one of their few defensive strengths, while Seattle’s offensive line is projected to be the league’s worst after their run blocking graded 29th last year. The Seahawks won’t hit the week’s highest implied total via their running game and returned interceptions alone.
Wilson will have his way with a collection of gasoline-soaked rags the Dolphins call cornerbacks. In his last six games of 2015, starting when Graham got hurt, Wilson averaged 274 yards, 3.5 touchdowns and 4.7 rushes per game. His single rushing score is due to regress positively (he scored six times in 2014). There are plenty of values in what should be a flat ownership week at quarterback, with Drew Brees and Andrew Luck similarly-priced to Wilson. Cam Newton is playing Thursday, so Wilson gets the “always merit to playing in a GPP” tagline this weekend.
QB Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions, $7,400
The week’s 16th-most-expensive quarterback is far from sneaky, as Stafford has a matchup with a top-three projected game total, and against an injury-ravaged defense that was bad to begin with. Yet, with attractive options up and down the salary list, it’s unlikely Stafford is over-owned despite it being well-known he finished 2015 a 70-percent passer with a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. It is also common knowledge Cooter will have the Lions push the pace – and we love the sound of that.
Last year, Detroit had a seven-percent no-huddle rate, versus a 62-percent mark through their first three preseason games of 2016. Stafford produced a 112.2 no-huddle passer rating last year and a 95.7 mark this preseason. More and faster plays against an overmatched Colts defense is something we might be interested in. Considering their lack of a pass rush and Stafford’s performance while under pressure (71.0 passer rating) versus with a clean pocket (110.2), we should be very interested in starting (and stacking) him against last season’s 25th-stingiest quarterback defense.
RB DeAngelo Williams – Pittsburgh Steelers, $7,100
The Steelers are favored and sport a top-five implied total, but the fact they are on the road introduces some risk. Yet, we aren’t making cash game lineups, and even if we were, Williams offers a rock-solid touch floor. When Le’Veon Bell was out last season, Williams averaged more than 21 touches and, relative to typical running back workloads, essentially played full games (87 percent of snaps). Pittsburgh has a similarly-thin depth chart and their approach to running back deployment clearly revolves around a single back – be it Williams or Bell.
Washington’s defense features stiff outside coverage and questions nearly everywhere else. It shapes up as a true “funnel defense,” forcing action into its center. PFF projects their front-seven 27th-best, and last year their run defense graded fourth-worst. With passing game questions beyond Antonio Brown, Williams is conceivably Ben Roethlisberger’s second-most-reliable target. Even if he doesn’t top his four-plus targets per non-Bell-game from last season, the 13th-most-expensive running back is a strong piece to build a mid-priced lineup around.
RB Latavius Murray – Oakland Raiders, $6,600
What seemed like an obvious bargain when salaries were first released – and still is a sweet value – Murray has become less glaring as cheaper options have emerged due to injuries. Aside from being priced in the mid-range when lineups will be heavy on cheaper running backs, the fact that Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree are affordably priced will take some starch out of Murray’s ownership rate. The Saints pass “defense” was a well-known sieve, allowing the most points to quarterback, the seventh-most to wideouts, and grading 31st in coverage.
Of course, New Orleans allowed the third-most points to running backs in 2015, and their front-seven projects to be fourth-worst this season. The Raiders are slight road underdogs in a game with a top-two projected total — which naturally pushes interest to their passing game. But with Vegas less accurate early on, it’s probably less-than-actionable data that could pay to be on the other side of. Oakland has a top-two projected offensive line, an upgraded defense, and a run-oriented coach and offensive coordinator. If they get on top of the Saints, Murray will be the one hammering them down.
RB Ryan Mathews – Philadelphia Eagles, $6,100
The middling implied total, bottom-basement over/under, rookie quarterback, and a well-established bias against the “injury-prone” Mathews will conspire to keep his ownership rate palatable. Yet an affordable price (tied for 27th among running backs) and spot as a home favorite stand out. The Eagles patched-up their formerly dominant offensive line – plus Lane Johnson will play during his suspension appeal – and will run an offense Doug Petersen oversaw while in Kansas City. The operative word there is “run,” and especially with a sashimi-raw Carson Wentz behind center.
Wentz’s mobility will give pause to a Browns’ run defense that graded second-worst last year, made noteworthy additions only via the draft, and has the 32nd-best front-seven according to our projections. They will be no match for Mathews, who averaged 5.1 yards per carry and ranked fourth of 54 qualifying backs in points-per-touch. He also pairs well with the underrated Eagles defense, which faces a work-in-progress offense led by an erratic Robert Griffin. If we want to diversify some lineups, using Darren Sproles with the Eagles defense adds a double-dip opportunity.
RB Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs, $5,400
Occasionally you eat chalk and the 45th-most expensive running back is the tastiest piece on the slate. Jamaal Charles is likely out and Charcandrick West will be deployed in a support role. Ware’s PFF grade-per-snap ranked fifth, while West’s ranked 62nd of 87 qualifying backs. Ware forced a missed tackle every 4.5 carries (7th-best) and West did it every eight handoffs (45th-best). They had the same yards-before-contact rate (1.8), but Ware averaged 5.6 yards per carry to West’s 4.0 mark. West is allegedly the better pass catcher, but Ware did recently haul in all eight preseason targets.
It’s not a revelation Ware is superior to West, but the concern – due to sure-to-be-high ownership – is if the workload is bankable. The Chiefs are touchdown favorites over a Chargers team they bulldozed on the ground last year. San Diego was our worst-graded run defense and did little to improve this offseason (first-rounder Joey Bosa won’t play). It is hard to envision a game plan that minimizes Ware, and the risk of game flow turning against him is more than offset by his tremendous upside and the salary flexibility he affords. Beware overthinking this one.
WR A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals, $8,200
The most expensive receivers are within easy reach due to available value, and Green should slide in unnoticed just behind them. It doesn’t hurt the cause that he will see Darrelle Revis in a game with a bottom-three over/under. Of course, while Revis is still good, he isn’t “Revis!” anymore. The Patriots let him go without even bidding, and after earning our seventh-best coverage grade through nine weeks of 2015, he ranked 95th out of 105 cornerbacks from Week 10 on. He was playing through injury, but the point is he is not an avoid-at-all-costs matchup anymore.
Green’s 7.7 targets per game last year (22nd-highest) should be juiced to a level more befitting an elite receiver. Tyler Eifert is out. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd are playing their first games with Andy Dalton — and Boyd’s first game, period. The Jets boast a top-three run defense and the Bengals will need to throw to move the ball. In 2015, New York ranked third in blitz rate (42.5 percent) and Dalton thrived against extra rushers (114.2 passer rating). He completed 79 percent of Green’s team-high 33 blitzed targets, for 445 yards and three scores.
WR Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills, $7,300
Watkins is coming off an injury-hampered offseason. He managed only 10 snaps and a single target while playing in one preseason game. Buffalo has a bottom-third implied total (20.5 points) and their matchup in Baltimore also sports a bottom-third over/under (44.5). The Bills ranked first in run rate last season (50.1 percent) despite plenty of negative game scripts. With all of this as a backdrop, and attractive plays like Randall Cobb and Amari Cooper in his salary neighborhood, Watkins should be lightly-owned.
While Watkins cannot count on heavy volume – although he did see at least five targets in nine of his last 10 games – he can do a lot with a little. During the 10 weeks Watkins saw at least five targets, he averaged 13.8 points – which would’ve ranked sixth on the full season. He ranked fourth in points-per-target. The Ravens allowed the fifth-most points to wideouts and did not appreciably improve a secondary projected 24th-best by PFF. The 14th-most-expensive receiver, Watkins fits the strategy in which we hammer mid-priced options.
WR Golden Tate – Detroit Lions, $6,900
There is a truckload of ways we can gain exposure to what should be the highest-scoring and most snaps-filled game of the week. Tate is one of the more high-profile – yet lower-owned – routes to that goal. The 22nd-most-expensive wideout fits a mid-priced roster-building approach and should draw a fraction of teammate Marvin Jones’ ownership ($5,500; 54th-most-expensive). Jones received a ton of attention from beat writers, with some even labeling Detroit’s new toy the Lions’ No. 1 receiver.
The Lions’ passing offense should have their way with the Colts’ sorry and injured defense. Last season they allowed the sixth-most points to opposing wideouts, and that was with stud coverage cornerback Vontae Davis allowing a 76.9 passer rating. He won’t play, while slot corner and high-frequency burn victim Darius Butler could sit with an ankle injury. Tate ran 56 percent of his routes out of the slot last season, and while it’s pretty tough to imagine the Colts starting someone who is a downgrade from Butler, here we are.
WR DeSean Jackson – Washington Redskins, $6,600
There has been faint buzz surrounding Jackson this week, and for the entire offseason. Despite missing most of the first half of 2015, he returned to ignite Washington’s offense. Jackson ranked third out of 125 wideouts in points-per-target, which is the same spot he finished in during the 2014 season. His PFF passing game grade placed ninth at his position on a per-snap basis. Jackson was the same dynamic threat he’d always been – one who’s caught more 50-plus-yard touchdowns (19) than anyone since 2008 (Jordy Nelson is a distant second with 14).
Despite not playing a full game, Jackson still averaged 5.7 targets in the seven contests in which he saw at least 50-percent of snaps. Even if he only maintains that, it equates to fantasy WR2 production at his point-per-target pace — and he’s priced as the 27th-most-expensive wideout. Fully-healthy and reportedly lighting up training camp, Jackson is primed for his contract season. His targets will rise in a pass-heavy offense, and his profile will too during a Monday night matchup with a Steelers defense still light on perimeter coverage a year after allowing the fourth-most points to wideouts.
TE Coby Fleener – New Orleans Saints, $5,400
Unlike at running back and wide receiver, there aren’t many attractive mid-priced tight ends. Delanie Walker and Travis Kelce have slow-paced matchups. Antonio Gates will deal with Eric Berry and last year’s third-stingiest tight end defense. Jason Witten has a good positional matchup but doesn’t have a GPP-level ceiling. If you can pay up for Jordan Reed, by all means do it – but there are several lower-priced tight ends worth our attention. Fleener is the 14th-most-expensive and plays in one of the highest-scoring projected matchups of the week.
A darling of the fantasy community during the spring, Fleener’s buzz has diminished. Whether he is still a work in progress – or even good at football — is unclear, but what’s not debatable is his position’s importance in Sean Payton’s offense. Since 2008, the Saints averaged 149 targets to their tight ends – 136 during seasons in which Jimmy Graham was not a full-timer. A 34-year-old Ben Watson saw over 100 looks. The Raiders allowed the third-most points to tight ends last year, and Fleener presents an opportunity to capitalize on a fickle fantasy community’s short attention span.
TE Jesse James – Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,500
If we’re looking for a minimum-priced tight end with (theoretical) two-touchdown upside, James is interesting. He was significantly involved during the Steelers’ third preseason game with Ben Roethlisberger on the field. James accounted for four of the quarterback’s 17 targets, catching three – including a red zone touchdown. The scoring area is where the 6-foot-7, 267-pounder’s presence will be felt. None of Pittsburgh’s three top wideouts are over 5-foot-11 or 186 pounds, and we should not forget how Roethlisberger relied on Heath Miller over the last decade.
Riding with James instead of trotting out someone similarly-profiled, like Witten, has more to do with the chances at multiple touchdowns than the $1,000 in savings – although that doesn’t hurt. Pittsburgh has a top-five implied total and a lack of standout passing game options not named Antonio Brown. They face a Washington team with stiff perimeter coverage, a soft underbelly, and a pass-based offense that will increase snap volume for both teams. The last part is significant for a Steelers offense that tends to play slower on the road (14-percent no-huddle last year) than at home (29 percent).