NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 11
Last week was another very solid week for this column. I placed top-three in several tournaments, including third-place in the RotoGrinders-sponsored Cover-2 on FanDuel for $8,000 on a $100 entry. Every single player on that lineup was highlighted in last week’s article.
Due to public demands, we’ll be changing the format of this article. Several commenters in last week’s article felt I covered too much ground, and preferred when this article only discussed two to three players at each position. Typically, I had been over-writing this piece by about 1,500 words. Though this was more time-consuming, I preferred to write it this way, discussing all of the top players in my weekly core. I felt this was the more honest and more valuable approach. If I had five running backs all in my top-tier (when factoring in both price and ownership), I assumed my readers would want to know as much and make the decision themselves, rather than me just mentally flipping a coin to pick two.
For instance, I only blurbed about three wide receivers last week. I mentioned Adam Thielen as an obvious nuts play at low-ownership, a highly-owned but glaring value in Sterling Shepard, and A.J. Green as being the superior play over Antonio Brown. All three players hit and were on almost all of my FanDuel lineups. If I was forced to pick only two, you may have missed out on a big game from the third.
All of this being said, my goal has only ever been to provide good content. I just need to add the caveat that now the players I’m writing up are two of my favorite plays at each position, but that these players could all be stuck in a similar tier with other un-named players.
Anyway, here are some of my favorite tournament plays this week:
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
Blaine Gabbert [DK: QB24, FD: Min. Price] – Gabbert is surely a gross name, but he was our second-highest-graded quarterback this preseason. He also averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game in starts last season, which would rank 13th-best this year among all quarterbacks playing this week. Over the past two seasons, preseason included, Blaine Gabbert has run on 18 percent of his dropbacks, tied with Colin Kaepernick for most among all quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs over this stretch, and Gabbert ranked behind only Tyrod Taylor in rushing fantasy points per drop back last season. If unfamiliar with the importance of a high-rushing floor for fantasy quarterbacks, I implore you to read this Hall of Fame-worthy article by Rich Hribar.
Gabbert also has the benefit of a dream matchup against a Houston defense ranking last in the league in fantasy points per drop back and third-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing quarterbacks (while ranking best to running backs against expectation). Although we know Arizona wants to be a run-first team, Houston should funnel action towards the pass, ranking 28th in opposing passer rating but seventh in yards per carry allowed. Houston is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the past month of the season (27.0), while the third-closest defense is nearly five points per game behind.
Stacking Options: Gabbert doesn’t necessarily need to be stacked with any receiver due to his rushing expectation, but there are two particular names I’m interested in. Larry Fitzgerald ranks fifth among wide receivers in fantasy points per game, and draws Kareem Jackson in the slot, who ranks fourth-worst of 104-qualifying cornerbacks in fantasy points per route in coverage… Houston is allowing the most fantasy points per game to receivers on deep targets, and Arizona ranks seventh in deep passes per game. John Brown would likely be the main beneficiary in that department, playing on a season-high 68 snaps last week and leading the team and ranking 13th among all receivers in deep targets per game. I lean Fitzgerald, however, given how rarely Gabbert attempted deep passes this preseason and throughout his career.
Alex Smith [DK: QB6, FD: QB9] – Andy Reid is 16-2 after a bye week, and Smith had his best game of the season in Week 1 with extra time to prepare for the Patriots. There have been 1,244 instances of a quarterback attempting at least 293 passes (Smith’s current total) in a single season all-time. Smith’s 2017 season currently ranks seventh-best in passer rating (113.2) and 10th-best in adjusted yards per attempt (9.43). The Giants rank third-worst in fantasy points per drop back, fourth-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation, and third-worst in pressures per drop back. There have been 38 instances of a quarterback scoring at least 25 fantasy points in any game this season. The Giants account for a league-leading four of them, with three coming in their last three games, and the week before that Philip Rivers had his best fantasy performance of the year, throwing for 258 yards and three touchdowns.
Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, duh – but we’ll get to that later. While I’m not ready to buy into Tyreek Hill’s home/away splits, given that he’s averaging just 0.5 more targets per game on the road this year, I do think this is an exploitable matchup for him. The Giants are allowing a play of 30 or more yards on 4.4 percent of targets (most) and rank third-worst in yards after the catch per reception. Tyreek Hill ranks second among wide receivers in both categories.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt [DK: RB5, FD: RB4] – If New York’s Damon Harrison (currently questionable with an ankle injury) is out for Week 11, I might end up with one of Hunt or Travis Kelce on every tournament lineup. Not only has Harrison been the best run defender in the league this year, but he’s been the best run defender of the past decade, recording numbers never before seen during the PFF-era. Obviously, this would be a massive loss for a Giants defense already allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and ranking sixth-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation. Of course, Hunt’s usage of late has been concerning, but he still ranks seventh in percentage of team running back snaps, first in percentage of team running back carries, and 14th in percentage of team running back targets. We’ve said this before, but as 10.5-point favorites, the game script should work towards Hunt’s favor. The offensive line has also played poorly as of late, ranking eighth-worst in yards before contact per attempt over the past five weeks, but Mitch Morse and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif will be back and should be fully healthy following their bye. Hunt is also still our highest-graded and most-efficient running back by every conceivable metric I find valuable.
Melvin Gordon [DK: RB8, FD: RB8] – Gordon is certainly a shaky play this week after conceding 10 carries and five targets to Austin Ekeler last week, and Ekeler proceeded to run circles around Gordon in terms of production. Still, Gordon played on 80 percent of the team’s snaps last week and led all players in expected fantasy points per game in the four weeks prior to Week 10. Fantasy owners are likely to again fall victim to recency bias and Gordon should draw low-ownership in the best matchup of the week for any running back. Buffalo ranks second-worst among all defenses in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs over expectation. In the three games since trading away Marcell Dareus, opposing running backs are averaging a league-worst 5.71 yards per carry and 48.4 fantasy points per game against Buffalo. In the six games before that, running backs averaged just 3.54 yards per carry and 19.7 fantasy points per game against Buffalo.
Chris Thompson [DK: RB16, FD: RB12] – With Rob Kelley on I.R. and Samaje Perine ranking as one of the league’s worst-graded (third-worst of 124 qualifying) and least efficient running backs, I expect Thompson to command a sizeable workload on Sunday. Thompson is averaging +6.9 additional carries and +0.2 additional targets in the two games Kelley has missed this season. Up against a Saints defense surrendering the most targets per game (8.6) to opposing running backs, as 7.5-point underdogs, Thompson makes too much sense this week on DraftKings.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks [DK: WR12, FD: WR6] – Last season, against the Raiders, Cooks saw 9 targets, catching 6 for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, with Chris Hogan out, Cooks saw a season-high 11 targets in a tough matchup at Denver. Hogan has not yet practiced this week. Cooks is projected to run 80 percent of his routes lined up against some combination of Dexter McDonald, David Amerson, and Sean Smith on the outside.
Amerson has not yet practiced this week, but if he suits up Sunday, Smith will likely ride the bench. Among 104 qualifying cornerbacks, Amerson ranks last and McDonald ranks eighth-worst in fantasy points per route run. McDonald has only ever seen 30 targets in his career, and has surrendered a 124.2 opposing passer rating on those targets. Among 85 qualifying cornerbacks over the past two seasons, Smith and Amerson each rank bottom-five in opposing passer rating and fantasy points allowed per target. Of 208 qualifying cornerbacks over the past two seasons, both rank bottom-five in percentage of plays surrendered for 35 or more yards. Cooks, meanwhile, leads all receivers in plays of 35 or more yards over the past two seasons.
As a team, Oakland is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to receivers on deep passes, while Cooks ranks fourth in deep targets. Oakland is also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers on 9-routes (11.8), while Cooks ranks behind only Robby Anderson in fantasy points per game on 9-routes (7.2). With the highest implied point total on the slate, priced at only $6,600 on DraftKings, he’s easily one of the most-glaring values on the site.
Amari Cooper [DK: WR20, FD: WR15] – Cooper ranks second among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (19.9) over the past four weeks of the season. Though partly bolstered by a massive 19-target-performance against the Chiefs, he did rank third and 21st at the position in the two weeks following. For perspective, Michael Crabtree ranks 14th (15.2) in expected fantasy points per game over the past four weeks. During this span, Cooper also ranks second in targets per game (12.0) and third in deep targets per game (3.7). Cooper has seen 23 targets from the slot over the past six weeks (one target away from ranking first among all receivers), though he saw just four slot targets over the first five weeks of the season.
The italicized statistics above are especially significant, considering New England is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers on deep passes (13.3) and the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers out of the slot (15.7). Jeff Ratcliffe, Mike Clay, and myself are all projecting Malcolm Butler to shadow Cooper this week. That’s significant, considering, of 104 qualifying cornerbacks, Butler ranks 27th-worst in fantasy points per route in coverage, while Stephon Gilmore (on Crabtree) ranks 39th-best. This season Butler has covered the slot on just 7.1 percent of his routes, but 19.8 percent of his total fantasy production allowed has come when there.
Salary Saver – I like Bruce Ellington [DK: Min. Price, FD: WR86] and Jamison Crowder [DK: WR44, FD: WR47] about equally this week, when factoring in price and ownership. Ellington has seen seven targets in back-to-back weeks and should draw even more volume this week with Will Fuller out, Patrick Peterson shadowing DeAndre Hopkins, and Braxton Miller playing out of position outside. Ellington has run 67 percent of his routes from the slot, while Arizona is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers (14.2)… Over the past four weeks, Crowder ranks 10th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.3) and targets per game (9.0). The Saints meanwhile have seen 45 percent of their wide receiver fantasy points allowed go to slot wide receivers (fourth-most), and that number could climb this week with Kenny Vaccaro questionable.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce [DK: TE1, FD: TE3] – I don’t know if there’s been a more slam-dunk play this season. The Giants just allowed a 29-year-old pass-blocking tight end in Garrett Celek to catch four passes for 67 yards and a score in Week 10. The Giants are now allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position (19.4). Dating back to last season, they have allowed a tight end to catch a touchdown pass in 10 consecutive games. Kelce is our highest-graded tight end and leads the position in fantasy points, yards, and target market share. The Giants lead all defenses in yards allowed (and percentage of) on targets to the middle of the field. Travis Kelce leads all receivers in yards (and percentage of) on targets to the middle of the field. The Giants are also allowing the third-most expected fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and are still allowing +4.5 actual fantasy points per game over that (the worst rate in the league). Eat the chalk – it’s good for you.
- Update
Wind – There is heavy wind in the JAX/CLV and the KC/NYG games. I was actually on Bortles to a degree, but didn’t have much separating him from Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Fournette is playing, it’ll be an easy swap for me. I may even end up with Fitzpatrick over Gabbert given how disparate I expect ownership to be… I’m coming down a little bit on all of the KC pass-catchers, but that might have even more to do with ownership than the wind. I knew Kelce would be highly-owned, but I didn’t think Smith would be so chalky. And Smith currently leads all QBs in yards on deep passes after spending the rest of his career in the bottom five-percent of the league. Arguably, no QB this season is hurt more by the wind than Smith. Obviously gamescript is a concern as well. MetLife stadium was specifically built to handle the wind far better than Giants Stadium once was. MetLife stadium does have a very unique wind pattern however, and that tilts the favor towards the home team. Perhaps it’s worth a small bet on the Giants with points (if Shepard is active), due to this advantage and also due to the fact that Manning grew up playing in the old Giants stadium, which was by far the windiest stadium in the league. Though this doesn’t mean I’m investing heavily on Giants players in DFS.
Kelce – Kelce is still my top tight end, but I’ll be less invested today than I thought I would be when first writing this article. The tight ends on my short list for consideration are: Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, Vernon Davis, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Tyler Kroft, C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Marcedes Lewis. I also really like the idea of making some lineups with both Gronkowski and Kelce on DraftKings.
Crowder/Ellington – Earlier in this article I said I had Ellington and Crowder even, but it looks like I overestimated Crowder’s projected ownership. I also like him even more now (and Thompson) with Ryan Grant, Terrelle Pryor, and Brian Quick all out. I still like Ellington, but Crowder might be my highest-owned player this week. I also think Vernon Davis is one of the top value plays on FanDuel given recent usage. Unfortunately, the matchup appears tough against a New Orleans defense that has only allowed one tight end to reach even 30 yards against them (Gronkowski, Week 2). Hopefully this means better looks for Crowder/Thompson.
I’ll try to tweet some stuff out, but here are some of the other guys I would have added to this article or things I would have changed if writing today: I’m reducing ownership in Smith and Gabbert. Increasing ownership in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jay Cutler. Kareem Hunt is still the RB chalk for me. Rex Burkhead is not the chalk. Jamaal Williams Jay Ajayi and Danny Woodhead deserve way more play than they’re getting. I also kind of like the MIN RBs. LeSean McCoy is super risky, but is growing on me given how down on him everyone is following the Tyrod benching. I’ll have some exposure to him, and there’s no risk of a vulture situation with Mike Tolbert out. I am very much on Marvin Jones, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, and Jeremy Maclin, and wish I had the chance to write a few of them up.
Also, thanks to everyone for the kind words in the comment section.