NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 16
Week 16 features a couple of games that will see the lion’s share of fantasy investments. We have a solid idea of who will be popular, like Pittsburgh’s passing game pieces. We don’t want to be too invested in chalky plays, but also shouldn’t lose sight of the forest when overanalyzing the trees. There are ways to construct unique lineups with one or two popular plays.
With only two weeks left to take advantage of slates in which every team plays, don’t sweat moderately-owned options if they are otherwise strong plays. There will be plenty of time to overanalyze ownership rates once the NFL playoffs start. Until then, let’s just enjoy these final weeks of the season, our families during this holiday season, and making the strongest plays we can.
Merry Christmas and on to the Week 16 FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Tom Brady – New England Patriots, $8,800 (-$700 from Week 15)
In a game both teams need to win and should remain competitive throughout (Patriots are a field goal favorite), Brady – as he was in Week 7 when he uncorked 54 passes for 355 yards — will be throwing constantly. The Jets, who boast the league’s third-best run defense (+48.2), will also need to air it out against a Patriots run-stopping unit that’s allowed 3.5 yards per carry since holding New York to a 3.1 average in Week 7. The snaps pace will be up on both sides as a result, raising Brady’s floor and ceiling higher than what’s typical of a low-owned, high-end quarterback.
Brady’s depressed ownership percentage is nice, but with quarterback usage spread evenly among several top passers, we need more than that. Although his price hasn’t been this low in 10 weeks, it isn’t cheap. Last week he had just under 150 yards and two touchdowns at halftime, but with a 21-point edge, the Patriots took their foot off the gas. Even if they seize a similar lead, they won’t be able to run out the clock against New York. New England’s resulting strategy, plus an aggressive Jets pass defense, will bring a pair of Patriot pass catchers into play to pair with Brady – and both are discussed below.
QB Kirk Cousins – Washington Redskins, $7,500 (+$400)
If you are going to play a slate with the Saturday game in it – and you know you want to – getting a chunk of the Washington passing game is a high-upside way to do it. Cousins is coming off of a 319-yard, four-touchdown dusting of a Bills team that plays slowly. The up-tempo Eagles – who allow the most snaps per game (70.9), the sixth-most points per game (25.9), and the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks — are a juicier matchup. Washington ran 79 plays against them in Week 4, while averaging 61.2 in their other games.
Cousins’ Week 15 was notable since, as a sub-70-percent passer with a 7.5 yards-per-attempt rate, he completed 78.6 percent of 28 throws at an 11.4-yards-per-attempt clip. Against the Eagles, he won’t have to match that efficiency to hit his ceiling – especially if he throws another 49 times like in Week 4. Philadelphia’s pass coverage grade (-1.4) still ranks 10th, but over the last six games it’s -18.3. Washington has matchup advantages that open several stacking opportunities, with DeSean Jackson’s revenge game narrative leading the way. Washington’s secondary remains beatable, and this could turn into a high-volume, back-and-forth fantasy bonanza.
RB DeAngelo Williams – Pittsburgh Steelers, $7,400 (+$400)
The matchup against a Ravens run defense that ranks fourth-best (+45.7) and allows the fourth fewest yards per carry (3.8) looks rough. Baltimore surrenders the fifth fewest points to running backs. Yet, over the last few weeks, a handful of quality backs have done well against them. In Week 15, Charcandrick West gained 76 yards on 16 carries (4.8 per carry), scored a touchdown, and caught two balls. In the preceding two games, Thomas Rawls had 44 yards on six carries (7.3) before his injury, and Lamar Miller gained 118 yards on 21 touches. The Ravens are good. They are not infallible.
The bad paper matchup, combined with a ton of traffic on Pittsburgh’s passing game, should keep Williams’ ownership rate in a palatable range. It Is no secret that the Steelers will throw all over the Ravens’ 25th-ranked pass coverage unit, which has allowed wide receivers to pile up the third-most fantasy points. That’s fine. Pivoting toward Williams, and into position to take advantage of potential goal-line plunges in a positively-scripted matchup that pegs Pittsburgh as a double-digit favorite, could be the right lane to be in when passing lane traffic is gridlocked.
RB James White – New England Patriots, $6,600 (+$200)
White’s third straight double-digit FanDuel point output — his fourth in five weeks — will attract attention. He would be a lot more popular, however, had the refs not blown a call on his 70-yard reception, and had the Patriots not signed veteran Steven Jackson the next day. White still finished Week 15 with seven catches on eight targets, for 71 yards and a touchdown, during a game in which New England took a run-based approach for much of the second half. He is averaging nine targets and 17.4 points over the last three games.
Since first breaking 25-percent of snaps in Week 7, which he’s done six times since, White is PFF’s top-graded passing back (+8.3) by a good margin (Theo Riddick’s +5.3 ranks second). His paper matchup with the Jets appears prohibitive. They give up the third-fewest points to running backs, rank third in run defense (+48.2), and surrender 3.8 yards per carry (sixth-best). That mainly eliminates Brandon Bolden, Joey Iosefa, Jackson, or whatever other big running back New England digs up. Like in Week 7 — when they only handed-off five times and went no-huddle 36.4-percent of snaps — the Patriots won’t slam into New York’s wall. As they often do against the Jets, they’ll have their “sub back” go around it.
RB Denard Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,400 (+$100)
For a matchup that should be packed with fantasy goodness and will attract a ton of traffic, it also features plenty of uncertainty. If Drew Brees sits out, it takes the starch out of all of the Saints pieces — with the possible exception of Tim Hightower – and makes Jacksonville a solid favorite to control the game. If he plays and is limited, which appears the most likely scenario, the Jaguars could still own the game script. If Brees is his usual home-game-self, initial expectations for a back-and-forth shootout should be met. Robinson is well-equipped to thrive in each scenario.
Robinson played 100 percent of Jacksonville’s snaps in Week 15, gathering 22 total touches. His 10 targets were the most among running backs last week, and strengthen the case that his workload will be hefty no matter how the matchup with New Orleans scripts. The Saints allow the third-most fantasy points and the most receiving yards to running backs, With Robinson moderately-priced and playing in a highly-targeted matchup, his ownership rate will be elevated. But with much of the focus on the Jaguars’ passing game, enough of Robinson’s chalk should be cut to make him worth rostering.
RB Karlos Williams – Buffalo Bills, $5,400 (+$500)
Williams does not come without worry. He still hasn’t gotten in a full practice due to a shoulder injury, Mike Gillislee will handle an indeterminate number of touches, and the Bills are probably in for a low-volume slog against the ponderously-paced Cowboys. Despite his dirt-cheap price tag, Williams would be a high-risk cash games play. As a low-cost tournament shot — one who correlates perfectly with Buffalo’s defense – he is one of Week 16’s best risk-reward propositions. It is not often we find multiple-touchdown upside in this price range.
Williams cost may have shot up from last week, but it is still less than a month ago ($5,800) and nearly $1,000 under what it was when he started pushing double-digit carries in late September. The athletic big-back — who averages six yards per carry and has the 15th-most rushing touchdowns among running backs on the 53rd-most carries — shouldn’t have trouble road-grading a Cowboys run defense that ranks 29th (-37.2). Dallas allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs, are a six-point-underdog, and are starting a career backup quarterback who threw three picks in 25 passes last week. They are a “get-right” opponent and Williams sets up to lead Buffalo’s charge.
WR DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans, $8,500 (-$200)
Hopkins saw double-digit targets in Week 15 for the first time in a month, while posting eight receptions and 94 yards. The 73-percent catch rate was his highest, by a good margin, since he caught eight out of 10 targets the last time he faced the Titans two months ago. The efficiency was encouraging, especially since folks are wary – for good reason – of Hopkins possibly taking passes from Brandon Weeden. While signs are positive that Brian Hoyer will return, Weeden did earn a positive grade in 43 snaps (+0.7) and completed five of seven targets to Hopkins.
With a chance to claim the AFC South, Houston will come out firing – and probably not on the ground. The Texans’ 28th-ranked running game (-1.7) averages 3.6 yards per carry (31st) and will find the sledding tough against a Titans run defense that grades seventh-best (+27.4). Since the last time Houston faced Tennessee in Week 8 – when the Texans managed 2.4 yards per carry – the Titans are allowing 3.5 yards per attempt (third-best). Hopkins sets up to own the game plan, and getting exposure to him at a moderate ownership rate against a collapsing pass defense — with his lowest price since he was going nuclear every week – is too good to ignore.
WR Kamar Aiken – Baltimore Ravens, $6,600 (+$300)
Aiken is not a sexy play, and it may be tough to watch at times, but he is the most likely beneficiary of a game script that will see Baltimore firing a ton of second-half passes. Since their Week 9 bye – soon after which they lost Justin Forsett for the year – the Ravens rank first in pass plays and 22nd in rushing plays. They are 2-4 since then and are double-digit underdogs in Week 16. With the Steelers allowing 3.8 yards per carry (seventh-best), their run defense earning a +6.3 grade over the last three weeks, and featuring a pass coverage unit that ranks 28th (-28.9), we know what Baltimore’s approach will be.
Aiken is averaging 10.3 targets, 6.2 catches, and 78.2 yards over his last six games. Among wideouts, the targets are the third-most, the catches rank seventh, and the yards place him 11th – which isn’t too shabby for the 26th-most-expensive receiver. He has scored in three of the last five – albeit with the assist of a Hail Mary touchdown the Chiefs barely bothered to defense last week. With plenty of interest in Pittsburgh’s passing game, Aiken is the most viable Raven for executing a game-stack in what should be an up-in-pace matchup.
WR Michael Floyd – Arizona Cardinals, $6,300 (+$200)
Floyd should see less traffic than last week for a couple of reasons. After David Johnson went ballistic on national television, interest in Arizona’s offense will shift from their passing game to their still-relatively-affordable running back. Floyd also left plenty of folks wanting more last week, despite catching five balls for 70 yards on eight targets. Most investors will move on to a new idea or just hop to Johnson. John Brown is similarly attractive, but saw one more target, scored a touchdown, and dropped three balls that would’ve boosted his day.
Since Brown is more likely to be rostered in tournaments, Floyd, the better red zone threat – who is $100 cheaper and has seven more targets than any Cardinals’ pass-catcher over the last three weeks – is the more attractive play. The Packers’ pass coverage grade ranks eighth (+10.2), but +4.4 of that is thanks to Sam Shields – who is very questionable to play with a concussion. Another +6.6 of that team grade is courtesy of Casey Hayward, who will cover Larry Fitzgerald and likely cause more targets to be distributed to the perimeter. In a game with a projected total of nearly 50 (49.5) and on a team with an implied total of 27, sticking with Floyd could pay off handsomely at light ownership.
WR Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks, $6,200 (+$200)
Lockett won’t be lightly-owned with the Seahawks’ passing game still soaring, but he should be a better way to play it than with a potentially-gimpy Doug Baldwin. As popular as Lockett may be, Baldwin will have significantly more traffic on him. Plus, with the Week 15 backfield touches leaning toward Christine Michael, at least there is another way to invest in the Seahawks’ offense for a game that scripts their way (13.5-point favorites). A Seahawks defense-Michael correlation play is an interesting way to gain exposure here, but stacking Lockett (with or without the running back) raises the ceiling and the chance at a double-dip.
Lockett has returned 63 of 66 punts and kickoffs for Seattle. While it’s unlikely the Rams will be kicking off very often, they have faced the ninth-most punt returns. St. Louis ranks second-best for fantasy points surrendered to slot receivers (hat-tip, Mike Clay), which is Baldwin’s territory. Lockett, who has seen a career-high seven targets in each of his last three games, averages 17.5 FanDuel points during that stretch and has scored three times in the last two contests. He equaled his highest snap percentage last week (78.1) and has a better-than-it-appears matchup with a Rams pass defense that grades -12.4 in coverage over the last three weeks.
TE Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots, $8,200 (-$300)
With few high-end running backs to pay up for, and several top receivers compromised, it feels like a Gronk Week for tournaments. Despite posting 54 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets (tied for the most among tight ends), he lacks his usual buzz and saw a nice price drop. His ownership rate should be low, thanks to zero multi-score games since Week 1 and a salary that remains north of $8,000. As discussed with James White, it’s likely that the Patriots will be throwing early and often. With Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola extremely questionable, and Brandon LaFell also banged up, we know who will get fed.
Gronkowski saw a season-high 15 targets against the Jets in Week 7, hauling in 11 for 108 yards and a score. With Edelman, Amendola, and LaFell (his five-drop game) active, the huge target load wasn’t merely a product of Brady’s 54 pass attempts. The Jets – who blitz at the league’s third-highest rate (42.5 percent) – brought extra rushers on 46.7 percent of dropbacks. Gronkowski is Brady’s most-targeted receiver against blitzes, and he caught six-of-eight blitzed attempts for 61 yards and the touchdown. For the season, he’s caught 27-of-38 blitzed targets, for 390 yards and nine touchdowns.
TE Julius Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,500 (+$300)
Thomas finished toward the back end of the top-12 tight ends last week, despite ranking fourth in targets (nine), and tying for third in both catches (six) and yards (79). It was the first time he did not receive a red zone look since Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye, and he broke a streak of four straight games with a touchdown. Will that be enough to keep his ownership rate low? Not with Thomas seeing the second-most targets on his team since Week 8, Jordan Reed playing on Saturday, Tyler Eifert likely sidelined, and a truckload of interest in this game.
Yet, Thomas’ cost of entry into a probable shootout, in terms of salary and ownership level, is not prohibitive enough to ignore him. New Orleans’ 31st-ranked pass coverage (-44.1) has shown up more in allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends than it has against wideouts (14th-most). They also rank 31st in pass rush (-11.8). That works well for Blake Bortles since he has a 100.3 quarterback rating with a clean pocket and a 58.9 mark when pressured. He does grade better against blitzes (+3.9 versus -6.8), New Orleans has a 33.6-percent blitz rate since their Week 11 bye (10th-most), and Thomas is Bortles’ second-most-targeted teammate against extra rushers since Week 8.