NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 2
On Tuesday, I spent the day looking at every Week 2 matchup, trying to project gamescript, volume, efficiency, and scoring potential. As I do every week, I was trying to determine who were the/my top DFS tournament plays of the week. This week, I walked away frustrated and annoyed. A large percentage of my favorite plays came from just two games; Green Bay in Atlanta and New England at New Orleans. Otherwise, I was mostly underwhelmed by the rest of the games in this slate.
Unfortunately for me, these are also the two games that everyone else will be on this week. Julio Jones is an easy and obvious near-100 percent play for me on both sites. Mike Gillislee might not have much going for him outside of goal line opportunities, but that’s still enough to make him a top play. I especially like him on lineups where I’m not rostering any New England players involved in the passing game. Rob Gronkowski struggled against Eric Berry in Week 1, but he’s one of only two players all-time to average more than 0.75 touchdowns per game over their career. His upside is massive in a game Vegas projects New England to put up 31 points. After disappointing last week, Chris Hogan draws another soft matchup and should get a target boost with Danny Amendola dealing with a concussion. Former wide receiver turned running back Ty Montgomery was used as a bell cow last week and draws an Atlanta defense that allowed the most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last year — and that’s not even including James White’s Super Bowl MVP-deserving performance or the 23.1 receiving fantasy points Bears running backs dropped on them last week.
Not liking that I was on all of the same plays as everyone else, and having trouble finding many more I felt great about, I decided to try something new. I spent most of my day Wednesday obsessively tweaking my rankings and then finally building projections around those ranking (typically the reverse is done). Once I had my projections, I contrasted it with site-specific salary to come up with some of my favorite value plays of the week (not on teams named the Packers, Falcons, Patriots, or Saints). I’m still going to have plenty of exposure to players on these teams, but if I repeated everything you’ve already heard all week, that wouldn’t be very fun.
So with that in mind, here are some of my (other) top tournament plays of the week:
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (Home vs. San Francisco) [DK: 6th, FD: 6th] – Wilson struggled last week through the air, behind an offensive line that graded out worst in the league last season (and looked just as bad on Sunday), but still totaled 40 yards rushing (his second-highest total since 2015). I’m willing to throw out Wilson’s entire 2016 season, considering he was playing hut with ankle, knee and pectoral injuries. He played with a knee brace on from Week 4 until the playoffs, averaging 2.9 rushing fantasy points per game less than his prior career average. Those extra 2.9 points per game were the difference in Wilson finishing 14th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring instead of fifth.
He was in arguably a great spot last week, but has had a rough history with Dom Capers throughout his career. San Francisco was a sieve against the run last year, and Seattle always goes more run-heavy than DFS players would like, but their running game was also disastrous last week averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on 15 attempts. The offensive line is the Achilles heel of this offense, but that shouldn’t be a concern this week with Rueben Foster out with an injury. San Francisco ranked tied for sixth-worst in pressures per game last year, and ranked third-worst last week. Wilson should be coming in at low ownership after last week’s poor performance, and has two clear stacking options. Baldwin draws starting slot cornerback K’Waun Williams, who ranked 34th-worst (of 118 qualifying cornerbacks) in opposing passer rating in 2015 and couldn’t make a team in 2016. Baldwin also posted a 10-208-1 line against the 49ers last year, while tight end Jimmy Graham totaled a near-equally impressive 10-164-1 line himself. The concern is Seattle won’t need to go very pass heavy in what should be a rout, but I’ll take the gamble he scores early and often at his salary and projected ownership.
Philip Rivers (Home vs. Miami) [DK: 15th, FD: 22nd] – Like Wilson, Rivers is another home favorite (what we’re looking for from quarterbacks) drawing an attractive matchup this week. Miami was a defense to target last season, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing quarterbacks. Rivers has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 10 straight games dating back to Week 8 of last season and ranks behind only Aaron Rodgers in passing touchdowns over this stretch. He just threw for three touchdowns against the defense (Denver Broncos) that ranked best against expectation last year and allowed only two multiple passing touchdown games (one was to Rivers during that aforementioned stretch) all season. Miami’s cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain were two of our 20 worst-graded players at the position last season, and are both likely to start in nickel packages. Fellow starter Byron Maxwell ranked 10th-best by PFF coverage grade last season, but 26th-worst in 2015, and had apparently played so poorly in preseason that his roster spot was in jeopardy. Rivers is easily one of the better value plays of the week.
Other notable names: Cam Newton, Jameis Winston
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (@ Denver) [DK: 4th, FD: 3rd] – Elliott is hard to fit in all of my lineups this week, and there are still plenty of other running backs to like, but I entered the week thinking I’d be coming in close to 100 percent ownership. Denver was the league’s most glaring reverse-funnel defense last season, allowing the third-most rushing attempts per game (30.1) and fifth-most rushing yards per game (130.3). Meanwhile, Dallas was the league’s most run-heavy team (49.4 percent).
Elliott draws essentially the same matchup he saw last week. An elite secondary with a shutdown slot cornerback (Chris Harris Jr.) that should negate Cole Beasley and an elite outside CB1 (Aqib Talib) to handle Dez Bryant. The only difference is, instead of facing a team that allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry in the Giants (3.6), he gets a Broncos defense that allowed the 15th-most (4.3). Dallas should dominate time of possession and feed Elliott until he develops an eating disorder or is too overweight and embarrassed to continue wearing those ridiculous crop top shirts. As an added bonus, Elliott hit career highs in routes run (30) and targets (five) last week, nearly doubling his 2016 averages of 2.38 and 18, respectively. As I wrote about all offseason, this was exactly what we needed to see from Elliott to vault him into the Le’Veon Bell / David Johnson teir of elite gamescript-proof bell cow fantasy running backs.
Le’Veon Bell (Home vs. Minnesota) [DK: 2nd, FD: 2nd] – Bell played on only 43 snaps and saw just 15 touches, both the lowest of his career in any game he did not exit early with an injury. There’s legitimate concern Pittsburgh again attempts to ease Bell back into a typical workload, after he sat out all of preseason due to a contract dispute. The matchup sets up nicely for Bell, however, considering Minnesota has a particularly stout secondary, ranking second-best in opposing passer rating (73.4) last season. It makes sense the Steelers would lean heavy on Bell via the run and through short passes to avoid the Vikings’ elite cornerbacks corps. At the end of the day, this really just comes down to the possibility of drawing Bell at an abnormally low ownership after last week’s letdown. In 2016, Bell averaged the most fantasy points per game of any non-quarterback this past decade. He’s expensive, but his upside is massive.
Marshawn Lynch (Home vs. New York Jets) [DK: 12th, FD: 13th] – Beast mode is back! Lynch didn’t appear too rusty in Week 1, ranking third-best in elusive rating among all 22 running backs with at least 15 touches last week. What was disappointing was that Lynch saw just 51 percent of the snaps and 69 percent of the carries. This is significant, because the gamescript and matchup set up nicely for the running game in Week 2. The Raiders are favored by 14 (highest of the week) and are projected by Vegas to score 28.5 points (third-most). The Raiders ran the ball 11 of 14 times when they finally took a two-score lead on the Titans midway through the fourth quarter last week, with Lynch handling eight of the 11 carries.
Last week, the Jets just gave up 110 rushing yards to LeSean McCoy on 22 carries (5.0 yards per carry). The Jets were more of a “funnel defense” last season, but that’s surely not the case anymore, after losing their No. 2- (Sheldon Richardson), No. 3- (Deon Simon), and No. 5- (Jarvis Jenkins) -highest-graded run defenders from a season ago. The only concern I have with Lynch this week is that Oakland may put this game away early and decide to preserve Lynch for more meaningful contents. Still, Lynch saw both of the team’s only two carries inside the five-yard-line last week, and I have a hard time imagining head coach Jack Del Rio has the audacity to try to tell Lynch to sit on the bench in favor of DeAndre Washington or Jalen Richard when the team gets within scoring range. Due to some massive scoring potential, Lynch is a strong tournament play on both sites (but especially FanDuel) this week.
Other notable names: Melvin Gordon, Dalvin Cook, Javorius Allen, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette (assumes T.J. Yeldon is inactive)
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (Home vs. Philadelphia) [DK: 15th, FD: 15th] – The Eagles allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends last year, and held Jordan Reed to just 8.6 fantasy points on eight targets last week. With Travis Kelce in another tough spot, this could mean another big day for Tyreek Hill – who scored 26.8 fantasy points on eight targets last week. Hill always feels risky, relying on big plays that seem unreliable, but this is also what makes him a strong tournament each week. Per Rich Hribar, “Hill has scored a touchdown of 60 yards or longer in five consecutive games, an NFL record.” That seems ridiculously unsustainable, but at the same time, here’s why he has a chance of continuing that streak this week:
Although Alex Smith is often mocked as the antithesis of a deep passer, he tied a career high in yards on deep passes (balls travelling 20 or more yards through the air) last week with 178. This is notable for two reasons. 1) 31 percent of Tyreek Hill receiving fantasy points have come on deep passes, which ranks fifth-most since 2016. 2) Outside of the addition of Patrick Robinson (our 32nd-worst graded cornerback last season) in place of Nolan Carroll, Philadelphia is starting all of the same players they had at corner and safety in 2016 against the Chiefs this week. Philadelphia gave up 14.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers on deep passes last season (most in the league), while the third-closest defense gave up only 10.0.
Hill ran the plurality of his routes from Smith’s left against the Patriots, which is where Eagles’ cornerback Jalen Mills lined up on 100 percent of his routes last week. Mills ranked bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage, and was our single worst-graded cornerback last season. NFL teams seemed aware of this, seeing as how they targeted Mills on 22 percent of his routes last season (the highest rate in the league) and on 32 percent of his routes last week (the highest rate in the league). With Kansas City having the fifth-highest implied point total of the week, in a soft matchup at a low price point, Hill feels like a great play this week though ownership may be higher than ideal.
Kelvin Benjamin (Home vs. Buffalo) [DK: 23rd, FD: 25th] – Newton didn’t look 100 percent following offseason shoulder surgery, and like with Wilson, too much positive gamescript in this game could be a concern. That said, based on my projections, Benjamin kept sneaking his way onto a ton of my early builds. In games they’ve both played, Benjamin accounts for 39 percent of Cam Newton passing touchdowns. This ranks behind only the Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown connection over the past three seasons. I like Benjamin’s scoring potential this week in a soft matchup against the Bills’ woeful secondary.
Benjamin ran 61 percent of his routes lined up to Newton’s left last week, where E.J. Gaines ran 91 percent of his routes on Sunday. Last season, Gaines surrendered a 141.7 passer rating on 72 targets into his coverage. Among all cornerbacks to see at least 50 targets, this ranks fifth-worst this past decade. Among all 101 cornerbacks to play on at least 400 snaps, Gaines ranked bottom-five in fantasy points allowed on both a per-target and per-route basis. At low ownership, in a soft matchup, and the same implied point total as the far-chalkier Saints, Benjamin feels like a good bet to score a touchdown and return value in Week 2.
Larry Fitzgerald (@ Indianapolis) [DK: 14th, FD: 25th] – After disappointing in an attractive matchup last week, Fitzgerald again has a soft draw in fifth-round rookie slot corner Nate Hairston. In his NFL debut, Rams slot wide receiver Cooper Kupp posted a 4-76-1 line on six targets against the Colts last week. I have trouble reconciling whether the loss of David Johnson is a net-positive or net-negative for Fitzgerald. It could mean less scoring opportunities for the offense, but also probably more targets for Fitzgerald as well. He certainly had plenty of opportunities last week, drawing 13 targets (second-most at the position) and ranking fourth-best among all players in expected fantasy points. Of these 13 targets, three were red zone targets, two were deep targets, and two were end zone targets. Fitzgerald uncharacteristically dropped a 32-yard end zone target, which would have added 10.2 points to his day, boosting him for a top-six finish at his position rather than 22nd. Fitzgerald is sure to fade down the stretch, but I feel fine rostering him in Week 2. In each of the past two seasons, Fitzgerald has ranked top-five among wide receivers in fantasy points through the first five weeks of the season. At possibly low ownership, in Vegas’ sixth-highest game total, I’ll gladly go back to the well again this week.
Other notable names: Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, DeSean Jackson
Tight Ends
Zach Miller (@ Tampa Bay) [DK: 24th, FD: 37th] – This one’s easy. After losing Alshon Jeffery to free agency and Kevin White and Cam Meredith to injuries, the Bears now sport the league’s worst wide receiving corps. “They’ll have to throw to someone!” So why not throw to one of the league’s most-efficient receiving tight ends? Since the second-half of 2015, Miller ranks seventh in fantasy points per game at the position (ahead of Travis Kelce!) and behind only Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed in fantasy points per target. At minimum price on FanDuel, he’s easily one of the best dollar-per-opportunity values on the slate.
Charles Clay (@ Carolina) [DK: 19th, FD: 25th] – Clay led all tight ends in expected fantasy points last week with 19.1, and logged 15.1 in PPR. He also led all receivers in expected fantasy point market share (60 percent), drawing nine of the team’s 22 targets and all of the team’s three end zone targets. Clay struggled with injuries early last year, but posted 22.6 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks of the season. This season, he’s also Tyrod Taylor’s only returning starting receiver. I’m buying into the “trust factor” narrative, and betting Clay sees a large workload again this week. It also doesn’t hurt that Carolina allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. Only $500 away from minimum price on DraftKings, he’ll be on plenty of my lineups.
Other notable names: Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, George Kittle