NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 7
Last week the typical roster construction had us paying up at running back and trying to find value elsewhere, especially at wide receiver, to make it work in a tight salary environment. Things are shaping up the opposite way this week. The top of the receiver list features more attractive matchups than at running back, yet several value opportunities — Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Gillislee chief among them — have emerged to help grease the skids.
However, if we want to construct unique lineups, we may want to pay a bit more at running back. Unfortunately this made more sense before LeSean McCoy wound up with a hamstring injury, but DeMarco Murray, David Johnson, and – if we play a slate with the London game – Todd Gurley can help us execute the plan. Of course, a running back-heavy configuration is only one way to skin Week 7.
We would be foolish to completely run away from stud wideouts in prime matchups, as the available value lets us roster them fairly easily. Another avenue the excess value opens is access to high-end players with low-ownership in sub-optimal matchups. Whether it’s Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown against New England, or Johnson and Christine Michael in a game projected to be low-scoring, we have more wiggle room to afford to take shots on low-owned studs.
There is truckload of directions we can go this week to differentiate our lineups, so let’s have fun with making as many tournament configurations as our budget and buy-in levels allow. Here are some ideas to help bring it all together. Good luck this week, everyone!
QB Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals, $8,100
Dalton has one of the juiciest matchups of the week, stacks well with multiple pass-catchers, and is priced just above several other quarterbacks in attractive spots. Dalton is coming off of a 21-of-31, 254-yard, one-touchdown performance in Foxborough, in which he was hot during the first half and faded as the Patriots took control. Fortunately for him, the Bengals host the Browns this week. Cleveland’s pass rush grades 10th-worst, their coverage ranks sixth-worst, and they allow the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They may also be without top cornerback Joe Haden, who hasn’t been practicing.
Cincinnati sports the week’s third-highest implied total (28 points) and have had more success throwing the ball (7.6 yards per attempt; fifth-best) than running it (3.5 yards per carry; 26th). The Browns are our 14th-graded run defense and early-downs plodder Jeremy Hill has been injured, ineffective, and playing less, while pass-catching back Gio Bernard has seen his role grow in recent weeks. Dalton looks like he will once again have the services of red-zone-dominating tight end Tyler Eifert against fantasy’s most accommodative tight end defense, and A.J. Green makes for an ideal pairing in tournaments.
QB Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,500
The 17th-highest-priced quarterback provides a leverage play on Jacquizz Rodgers’ prime spot and astronomical ownership. San Francisco allows the fourth-most points-per-game to running backs and Rodgers is going to get fed again. The Buccaneers are favored, but short (one-point) road favorites often do squirrely things. The 49ers tend to hang in home games, and if the anticipated script flips, Winston will throw more. Considering San Francisco’s breakneck pace has them allowing the third-most plays per game (69.5), and Tampa Bay already runs the second-most (70.6), Winston will throw more anyway.
Vincent Jackson’s ACL tear may take a bite out of Winston’s ownership rate, but the quarterback is better off. When Winston targeted Jackson, he had a passer rating of 40.0, the lowest for 102 qualifying wideouts. The 49ers blitz at the league’s highest rate (40.3-percent), while Winston has a better passer rating and PFF grade against extra rushers, versus when teams don’t bring heat. San Francisco also allows the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, and while he isn’t exactly Michael Vick, Winston has accrued fantasy points with his legs (20-percent of 2015 points; fifth-highest). A team stack with both Winston and Rodgers is also in play.
RB DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans, $8,700
Murray may be the most expensive running back with McCoy out, but paying up to be contrarian here is a pipe-dream. Murray will be heavily-owned. High-ownership plus high-price almost always equates to a bad idea, but if we are running multiple lineups, some exposure is warranted – and abundant available value mitigates the “high-price” side of the above equation. Murray has a home date with the same defense Lamar Miller just tuned-up for 178 total yards and two touchdowns. We can worry about differentiating lineups in other ways once we secure the week’s highest-projected running back.
The Colts have our worst-graded run defense, allow 4.8 yards per carry (29th-best), and will be without their, by far, best front-seven player in Henry Anderson. Indianapolis allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs despite facing only the 18th-most rushing attempts. They allow the eighth-most receptions to the position and Murray has the fourth-most among running backs. He also has earned the fourth-highest overall grade at his position, played at least 95-percent of Tennessee’s snaps in two of their last three games, and comes backed by our highest-graded run-blocking offense.
RB Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons, $7,500
It is tough to argue against rostering fantasy’s top running back from last season at the position’s 10th-highest salary, in a nearly touchdown-favorite home spot for one of his best matchups of the season. Of course, it’s tough to argue against rostering most players in a game with the week’s highest projected total – which is part of what may keep Freeman’s ownership level palatable. Jumping on Matt Ryan and Julio Jones is our first inclination, for good reason. Freeman’s backfield split with Tevin Coleman, who is also in play and costs $1,300 less, should serve to hold down traffic on Atlanta’s “1A” running back.
Freeman has steadily held at above a 50-percent snap share while averaging 15 handoffs and 3.3 targets per game. Since Week 1, his rushing grade is tied with David Johnson’s, he’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry and is fantasy’s sixth-highest-scoring running back. The Chargers have our 26th-graded run defense, in addition to allowing the most receptions per game to running backs (9.0). We saw in Week 3 how both Falcons’ backs can thrive against a weak opponent when they finished first and second in running back scoring while facing the Saints. They are in a similar spot against a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
RB Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs, $7,000
Fantasy’s sixth-highest-scoring running back on a per-game basis, Ware played 63-percent of snaps in Jamaal Charles’ second game back. He out-touched Charles 26-to-11 and averaged 5.5 yards on a season-high 24 carries, with 32 more yards on two catches. Both he and Charles scored, and it’s not inconceivable the veteran begins to see a larger workload. Hopefully that scares Ware’s ownership rate downward, because he remains the lead back in what again appears be a run-first offense. The Chiefs are nearly a touchdown favorite at home against a Saints team that does not travel well.
New Orleans has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to Jonathan Stewart (2), Melvin Gordon (2), and Tevin Coleman (3), in addition to a score for three different Raiders’ backs. Despite facing our 22nd-, 25th-, 29th-, and 32nd-graded rushing offenses, they rank 20th in run defense and allow the 11th-most yards per carry. During the one game in which they took on a top-10 run game, the Falcons piled up 217 yards and three touchdowns. Ware’s 5.3 yards-per-carry average is third among backs with at least 50 carries, he ranks sixth in points-per-touch out of 37 runners with at least 50 touches, and will bulldoze the Saints no matter his touch total.
RB Matt Jones – Washington Redskins, $6,700
Nobody wants to play Jones mainly because whether or not he’s good at football is a real question. Last year he earned our 65th-best grade out of 68 running backs, while averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Running back quality is arguably less fantasy-relevant than opportunity, and thus far he has 70-percent of Washington’s rushing attempts. He also owns our eighth-highest running game grade out of 55 backs and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry (16th). Jones owns the sixth-best Breakaway Percentage among 42 qualifying running backs in part due to his seven runs of at least 15 yards (fifth-most).
Washington has our eighth-highest-graded run blocking and last week chewed up the Eagles’ previously solid front-seven for 230 yards on 33 carries (7.0 average). It is the style of offense the Redskins have stated they prefer and one for which the matchup against Detroit’s 29th-graded run defense is well-suited. For fantasy, the Lions’ points-against (10th-lowest) is artificially suppressed by not yet allowing a rushing touchdown, despite a sixth-worst yards-per-carry average (4.7). Ownership will be tilted toward a Redskins’ passing game facing the league’s most quarterback-friendly fantasy defense, but if the script flips toward Jones, we’ll be in business.
WR Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars, $8,400
Robinson has been a disappointment so far, registering the 26th-most fantasy points per game only a season removed from ranking fifth. His workload hasn’t fallen off, as he’s seeing 8.8 targets per game after getting 8.9 last year. He is even catching balls at roughly the same rate this season (55-percent) as last (56-percent). Robinson’s yards per reception and touchdown rates are down sharply, the latter of which was expected due to his being on the high side of variance last year. Outsized expectations and recency bias – Robinson looked bad last week – should keep him palatably-owned.
Robinson is also priced in a range with Odell Beckham ($8,600) and A.J. Green ($8,500), with Mike Evans $400 cheaper. This, coupled with his rough start and still-high price tag, has Robinson positioned nicely for a home matchup with the Raiders. He averages 6.6 more targets, three additional catches, and 27 more yards in home games (including a London game) versus on the road. All three of his touchdowns came in those games. Oakland has allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns (12), the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and the most yards per attempt — by a wide margin (8.8).
WR Brandon Marshall – New York Jets, $7,400
The FitzMagic is officially gone, but in truth, it ran out weeks ago. Over the last four weeks alone, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s passing game grade (a cumulative measure) was so far in the negative it was worse than any quarterback from last season. There few positive things to say about Geno Smith’s four-year career, but he has never been that bad. If Marshall gets even a slight quarterback upgrade and maintains a workload that has fed him at a 10-target-per-game pace over the last four weeks (300 yards, two touchdowns), he can do damage. If he faces worse coverage and gets a workload uptick, we’re really in business.
Of the 40 targets Marshall has gotten over the last four weeks, 27 of them came with Marcus Peters, Richard Sherman, Ross Cockrell, and Patrick Peterson on him. All grade positively in coverage. Marshall will see a lot of Jimmy Smith (73rd-graded coverage cornerback) if he clears the concussion protocol. If not, he gets to toy with Shareece Wright (89th-graded). The last time Smith took over for Fitzpatrick, he targeted Marshall 18 times (nine catches, 108 yards). With few other viable receiving options, and against a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to wideouts, Marshall should thrive – and at moderate ownership due to having Geno Smith stink on him. After the last four weeks, it will smell like perfume to Marshall.
WR Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings, $7,000
Diggs is not someone we want heavy exposure to, but there is a place in tournament lineups for him this week. The matchup in Philadelphia projects to be a low-scoring, low-snap-volume affair. However, Diggs is in an excellent spot to be the engine that drives the Vikings offense. Reportedly healthy after being hampered for two games and missing a third with a groin injury, Diggs had a bye week to heal and is practicing on a limited basis this week (watch for Friday’s practice report). It seems like a long time ago now, but prior to getting hurt in Week 3, Diggs averaged nine targets, eight catches, 142.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
The low projected game total (40 points), Diggs essentially being a month removed from his last fantasy-worthy performance, and a price tag still in the top-20 at his position should conspire for a miniscule ownership rate. He will run roughly 85 percent of his routes against Jalen Mills and Ron Brooks. Mills is a seventh-round rookie and sports our 110th-best coverage grade. Brooks is our 102nd-ranked coverage cornerback and the five-year veteran has never graded positively in that department. Diggs may not actually win someone a million dollars, like in Week 2, but there’s a good chance he at least reminds us of it.
WR Julian Edelman – New England Patriots, $6,900
Edelman has seen 10 and six targets in the two games since Tom Brad returned, but his production has lagged behind other New England pass catchers. Martellus Bennett has scored three times, James White twice, and Rob Gronkowski once. It may be Narrative Street, but the bet here is Brady gets his toady going in a plus matchup in Pittsburgh. It was often said that Peyton Manning fed his receivers after a down week or two, just as we’ve heard Brady’s favorite target is the open man. Edelman should fall in to both categories in a week the Patriots have the fourth-highest implied total on the slate (27.3 points).
Edelman will run most of his routes against rookie Sean Davis, who has allowed 86-percent of targets in his coverage to be caught and ranks as our 98th-best coverage cornerback. The bonus for Edelman, who forced the ninth-most missed tackles last year (15) and has three so far in 2016, is Davis ranks dead last in Tackle Efficiency out of 122 cornerbacks. The Steelers play a lot of zone coverage, which Edelman tears up, and hasn’t seen much of since Brady came back. He caught 11 of 12 targets for 97 yards against Pittsburgh last season and is in a favorable spot to deliver his first big game of 2016 at a nice price.
TE Hunter Henry – San Diego Chargers, $5,800
Henry ranks behind only Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett in tight end scoring over the last three weeks – the last two of which came with “starter” Antonio Gates active. Worry exists over how much the calcifying Gates eats into Henry’s workload, and, now only five touchdowns behind Tony Gonzalez’s NFL record, if Philip Rivers lives on Narrative Street. Henry is the better passing game option, however, and San Diego will need to keep pace with the NFL’s top scoring offense. The matchup projects as the week’s highest-scoring, and San Diego’s ascending tight end offers a solid path to exposure a shootout.
Henry is our sixth-graded tight end in the passing game – a cumulative grade — despite playing partial snaps. Gates has managed to rank well in the negative (53rd-best), despite playing even fewer snaps. The Falcons struggled to stop tight ends last year, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Things haven’t gotten better, as they are giving up the third-most points per game and the second-most yards to tight ends. With an already depleted cast of pass-catchers, shut-down cornerback Desmond Trufant canceling out one of Rivers’ wide receivers, and Travis Benjamin playing through a knee injury, Henry will play a central role no matter what Gates does.
TE Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,200
If we aren’t looking to pay up at tight end, Brate makes for another interesting low-cost option in a week where the higher-end guys have some warts. Even with value available, Rob Gronkowski costs $3,300 more than Brate. Delanie Walker whiffed in a similarly sweet spot last week, and oddly saw only two targets as Kendall Wright re-emerged. Jordan Reed gets the week’s best tight end matchup but is dealing with a concussion (Vernon Davis makes for a great pivot if Reed sits). Brate is in an offense with few other options to syphon away targets and takes on a 49ers team that is quietly bad at defending tight ends.
San Francisco has given up six catches, 100 yards, and a touchdown on nine targets to Jimmy Graham, five catches for 122 yards and a touchdown on seven targets to Greg Olsen, and even had trouble containing the immortal Charles Clay last week (five catches, 52 yards on seven targets, with two dropped passes). Brate will benefit from Vincent Jackson’s vacated targets and an elevated snaps pace the 49ers infuse their opponents with. In his two home games, Brate has averaged eight targets, five catches, 56.5 yards, and a touchdown in both. He is also diversifying add-on to team- or game-stacks containing Jacquizz Rodgers.