NFL Chalk Talk: Week 16
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned on DraftKings. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Ben Roethlisberger $6,800 at BAL: 25 percent
It’s very difficult to see Big Ben failing against a broken Ravens pass defense that ranks 29th in DVOA and gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This guy is averaging 353.0 pass yards per day in the nine games he’s finished. The only reasons to consider a Big Ben fade are a negative game script thanks to Ryan Mallett / Jimmy Clausen and the possibility of DeAngelo Williams touchdowns.
2. Cam Newton $7,500 at ATL: 15 percent
There are a bunch of quarterbacks in fantastic spots again this week. Ben, Cam, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, Drew Brees (if healthy) and Matthew Stafford will all get traffic – therefore flattening the ownership on each. In other words, I wouldn’t worry too much about percentages at quarterback once we get past Big Ben. It was a similar situation last week as Wilson was the highest-owned QB at 23.3 percent and no other QB was over 13 percent.
3. Russell Wilson $7,200 vs. STL: 12 percent
Wilson’s tear continued last week as he threw three more touchdowns, giving him an outlandish 19:0 TD-to-INT ratio over the last five weeks. He’s also averaged 284.0 pass yards and 29.4 rush yards during that span. Now Russ gets another soft spot at home against a Rams defense that is talented but ranks 22nd in yards allowed per game.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Tom Brady 6 percent, Carson Palmer 7 percent, Aaron Rodgers 3 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. David Johnson $5,800 vs. GB: 40 percent
DraftKings has done a great job over the last couple weeks with tightening of pricing. One spot they missed is Johnson, who was 33.9 percent owned site-wide last week and went off for 47.9 DK points. His price only went up $100 ahead of this week, making him the mega chalk this week. Although I absolutely love Johnson’s massive game-flow independent role, unique skill set and offense, there’s always merit to a GPP fade of a relatively expensive running back. I doubt I’ll be fading DJ in cash.
2. Denard Robinson $5,400 at NO: 30 percent (if T.J. Yeldon is inactive)
Robinson was 30.2 percent owned last week against the Falcons at $4,600. Although he only had 15.4 DK points, the usage was really encouraging. Robinson played on 62-of-62 snaps and ran 36 pass routes vs. nine pass protections, resulting in eight catches on 10 targets. With Yeldon (knee) expected to sit again and an even better matchup, Robinson will have a lot of traffic. A successful fade would stem from a low touchdown projection as the Jags continue to insist on a pass-heavy attack in the red zone.
3. DeAngelo Williams $6,500 at BAL: 15 percent
Williams won’t be nearly as popular as Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. But I think using Williams as leverage against the pass game will be a play plenty of sharp players use. What if the Steelers get a big lead via a couple defensive touchdowns or Brown/Martavis get tackled at the 1-yard line. Williams continues to see over 90 percent of the snaps weekly in arguably the game’s best offense.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Devonta Freeman 6 percent, James White 7 percent, Karlos Williams 8 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Antonio Brown $9,300 at BAL: 42 percent
Odell Beckham is suspended, Julio Jones is facing Josh Norman and DeAndre Hopkins has quarterback concerns. Meanwhile, Antonio Brown is coming off a 49.9-point outing against the league’s best pass defense. Now he gets to face a Ravens secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. So even though Brown is priced way up, he’s going to be the first player a lot of the field clicks into their lineup. We could profit here even if Brown is held to 20 DK points or so.
2. Doug Baldwin $6,700 vs. STL: 27 percent (if hamstring is OK)
I suspect Baldwin’s ownership will be down off last week, when he was $5,800 against the Browns. The jump to the $6,700 tag is significant, as it puts him right around reliable studs like Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Mike Evans. He’s also the same price as Sammy Watkins, who is getting weekly traffic now (20.7 percent last week). Close observers will also note Baldwin only saw six targets last week and hasn’t seen more than nine during this outlier four-game stretch where he’s caught 10 TDs on 21 catches. I’m going for the full fade (again).
3. Martavis Bryant $5,600 at BAL: 22 percent
In Week 14 (at CIN), Antonio Brown was 29.9 percent owned and Martavis was 19.2 percent. I expect both to be among the most popular WRs again. Bryant is simply way too cheap for a wide receiver operating with Ben Roethlisberger and seeing 9.5 targets per game. He’s also added a quick-hitting repertoire to his game, getting screens thrown his way on top of the trademark deep shots. There’s a bigger chance to profit on Bryant vs. Brown because he’s a whopping $3,700 cheaper. Also note that I expect Rueben Randle ($3500) to be in the 20 percent range as owners search for quality value.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: T.Y. Hilton 4 percent, Kamar Aiken 7 percent, Allen Hurns 8 percent, Markus Wheaton 3 percent
TIGHT END
1. Rob Gronkowski $7,600 at NYJ: 15 percent
At his weekly inflated price, Gronk needs roughly 30 DK points to really “get there” in tournaments. He’s done that twice all year and has averaged just 15.4 points across his last four games. Yet Gronkowski continues to be among the most-owned tight ends weekly because of his name and ceiling.
2. Ben Watson $5,300 vs. JAX: 14 percent (if Drew Brees starts)
Watson was 13.7 percent owned last week, third most among TEs behind Antonio Gates and Gronk. With Gates not on the main slate and a dreamy matchup with a Jags team that funnels action to the pass, you can see why the Saints tight end will be popular. Watson has seen a hefty 9.7 targets per game over the last four as the Saints continue to get in shootouts.
3. Greg Olsen $7,000 at ATL: 13 percent
Olsen proved his knee issue was a non-factor last week as he played on 100 percent of the snaps, the 10th time he’s done that this year. The Panthers are also still competing for home field throughout the NFC playoffs and the dream of an undefeated season is alive. Olsen is the most expensive he’s been all year, which will keep his ownership down. He’s only slightly cheaper than guys like Allen Robinson Evans”:/players/mike-evans-18287 and more expensive than the Demaryius Thomas Baldwin”:/players/doug-baldwin-13090 tier for owners thinking about using a Olsen in the flex.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Delanie Walker 8 percent, Travis Kelce 4 percent, Zach Miller 3 percent, Will Tye 5 percent