NFL Grind Down: Week 1 - Page Two
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Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
| Cincinnati Bengals | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42 | 21.75 | 1.5 | 42 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.6 | 5 | 18 | 13 | Offense | 24.2 | 10 | 15 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 8 | 13 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 17.5 | 2 | 22 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 9 | 2 | 18 | 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 17 | 11 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 140 | 91 | 11 | 1,368 | Marshall | 173 | 109 | 14 | 1,502 | |
| LaFell | 79 | 40 | 0 | 521 | Decker | 132 | 80 | 12 | 1,027 | |
| Boyd | Enunwa | 46 | 22 | 0 | 315 | |||||
| Eifert | 83 | 57 | 13 | 673 | Davis | 11 | 3 | 1 | 18 | |
Vegas Odds – CIN (-1) / O/U 41 1/2
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tyler Eifert (CIN TE) – Out (Ankle)
CIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 3.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: This game sets up as one of the more boring games on the Sunday slate. It has a fairly low total, and both teams like to play conservative football. Andy Dalton is nothing special, but he is an average NFL quarterback that is capable of leading a team that has a good defense. Just don’t expect him to win any playoff games. I can’t recall the last time I have been drawn to Dalton as a fantasy option, and this road game against the Jets certainly won’t change that opinion. Avoid him.
Running Game: The Jets ranked second against the run a year ago, and their defense is very strong in the front seven. Throw in a timeshare between Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill at running back, and this is not the spot to take a chance on them. I don’t expect the Bengals to have much success with the power run game here, so this is a poor matchup for Hill. Bernard is actually the more interesting Week 1 choice, as he has a chance to make more plays in the passing game and on the perimeter. I still will completely avoid this situation, though either back gets a huge boost if the other happens to get injured.
Pass Catchers: A.J. Green is the obvious play in the receiving corps, though he will likely match up often with Darrelle Revis. At age 31, Revis is no longer the “island corner” that he used to be, but he still graded out above average a year ago. A lot of daily players will likely avoid Green because of the name value that Revis brings, but Revis isn’t a corner that we need to actively avoid every week. Green certainly has the talent to produce a 100+ yard performance here. The other spots are unsettled thanks to the loss of Mohamed Sanu to Atlanta. Brandon LaFell is expected to start the year as the #2 option, but rookie Tyler Boyd was impressive in camp and should garner more snaps as the season goes along. In a tough matchup, I wouldn’t reach for anyone besides Green, especially since tight end Tyler Eifert will be out for the first few weeks of the year.
The Takeaway: Don’t get too excited for the Bengals in a tough road matchup. If I target anyone, it will be either A.J. Green or Giovani Bernard. Jeremy Hill is unlikely to do much damage in the power run game, and this game has one of the lowest totals of the week. Good games are coming, but this is not one of them.
New York Jets
Quarterback: You can pretty much copy the text from Andy Dalton and apply the same logic to Ryan Fitzpatrick. In addition, Fitzpatrick looked rusty in his one preseason performance after sitting out all summer during his contract dispute. The Bengals are more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, and Fitzpatrick has a pair of good receivers at his disposal, but there’s no reason to target him in this projected low-scoring affair.
Running Game: The Jets signed Matt Forte to replace the departed Chris Ivory, and he is expected to be the primary ball carrier in New York. Bilal Powell will have a role, as Forte has a lot of carries on his legs and is likely not going to handle 25 touches a game. Powell was solid a year ago and can contribute in the passing game, so don’t expect Forte to be the PPR monster that he was in Chicago. Cincinnati ranked seventh in the league against the run last year, and this is not the spot to take a chance on Forte or Powell. Let the tough matchup go by the wayside, but keep an eye on the workload distribution for use in future weeks.
Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall remains a fine big play threat while also being a safe option that has immense value in PPR formats. He also has one of the safest DFS floors week in and week out. Eric Decker approached that PPR-value level last year, seeing 10+ targets in seven games. I don’t expect him to score twelve touchdowns again this season, so expect a bit of a dip in his overall production. However, the Jets lack any other true receiving weapons, so these two will soak up the targets. The Bengals are more vulnerable through the air, and I will likely make my decisions based on salary. Decker is $1,200 cheaper than Marshall on DraftKings, where Decker also garners more value with the full PPR. Decker is only $800 cheaper than Marshall on FanDuel, where Decker has less value with the half-point PPR. These factors would make me lean toward Decker on DK and Marshall on FD, though neither are must plays. The tight end spot is a dead zone in New York, so there’s no need to look there.
The Takeaway: Once again, this is not a spot to get overly excited. The Bengals are weaker against the pass, so Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall are intriguing options where the price is right. I will be avoiding the rest of the Jets in what profiles as one of the more boring games of the week.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints
| Oakland Raiders | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51 | 25.5 | 0 | 51 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.4 | 16 | 17 | 28 | Offense | 25.5 | 6 | 1 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.8 | 32 | 31 | 31 | Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 22 | 25 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 32 | 30 | 26 | 32 | Oakland Raiders | 24 | 21 | 12 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooper | 130 | 72 | 6 | 1,070 | Cooks | 129 | 84 | 9 | 1,138 | |
| Crabtree | 146 | 85 | 9 | 922 | Snead | 102 | 70 | 3 | 990 | |
| Roberts | 55 | 32 | 5 | 480 | Coleman | 49 | 30 | 2 | 454 | |
| Smith | 13 | 12 | 1 | 70 | Fleener | 84 | 54 | 3 | 491 | |
Vegas Odds – NO (-1) / O/U 51
Notable injuries and suspensions: Michael Thomas (NO WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
OAK Matchup Rating: 9.0
NO Matchup Rating: 9.0
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Finally! We have a game chalk full of fantasy goodness here, as the 51 projected point total with a one point spread between the teams signals all sorts of fun. New Orleans ranked 31st in pass defense in 2015, and outside of Delvin Breaux they don’t have anything to fear in the secondary. I expect a breakout year from Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, and Carr is one of my favorite quarterback options of the week. Carr is the 10th most expensive quarterback on FanDuel and the 7th most expensive quarterback on DraftKings. There is certainly plenty of value to be had in that salary tag in a very favorable matchup. Buy with confidence.
Running Game: There has been some chatter about the workload for Latavius Murray. He struggled in the preseason, while rookie DeAndre Washington looked very good. As of now, it still looks like this is Murray’s job. His primary value resides in his heavy volume, so make sure to watch the news closely on this one. Assuming Murray keeps a strangle hold on the primary back duties, he should have a good game against a New Orleans defense that is also weak against the run. At $5,600 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel, Murray should be pretty highly owned in most contests. He is an interesting tournament fade if you buy in to his preseason struggles and possible reduced workload. He still seems like a viable play in most formats, especially at these prices. Don’t forget how high the total is in this game.
Pass Catchers: I mentioned above that I am a buyer on Amari Cooper. He is capable of being a major red zone threat, and Michael Crabtree 2015 season will not be repeated. Cooper played through painful plantar fasciitis in his foot most of last year and is now healthy. He roomed with Derek Carr in training camp. I expect a huge season and will be buying in right from the start. If you are a believer in Crabtree, feel free to go there, but I will be on #TeamCooper in this one — and for much of the season.
The Takeaway: It’s all about the Carr/Cooper connection. They are one of my favorite QB/WR combinations of the opening weekend, while Latavius Murray is also in play. Both teams are expected to top 25 points in this game, and a 51 point total is very high for an NFL game. All three skill players are very affordable on most sites, and the Raiders will be popular selections. This will be a fun team to watch this season, as their defense is improved as well.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The Raiders steadily improved on defense as the 2015 season went along, and Khalil Mack is one of the best, most under-rated defensive players in the whole league. That said, stopping the Saints offense on their home turf is easier said than done. There is a reason why Vegas expects a lot of points in this game. Drew Brees has always had discernible home/road splits throughout his NFL career, and at home is where we want to target him. Oakland is more vulnerable against the pass, so feel free to target Brees with confidence. He is a virtual lock for a 300 yard game here as long as the contest stays competitive.
Running Game: Mark Ingram is quietly becoming one of the more well-rounded backs in the NFL. He is a decent receiver out of the backfield, but C.J. Spiller randomly got quite a bit of work in the preseason after there were rumblings of him being cut. I am not sure what to make out of this situation, but Ingram would have significantly more value if Spiller went down. Oakland is stronger against the run, so I will take a wait and see approach here. The passing game is where we want to look for New Orleans.
Pass Catchers: Even though Drew Brees is capable of putting up massive numbers, he does a great job of spreading the ball around. Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas, and Coby Fleener are all capable targets, so expect up-and-down weeks for everyone. Fleener should see a nice uptick in production in New Orleans, especially with red zone looks. He is a nice value target at tight end. As for the other receivers, Cooks and Snead are the primary targets. Cooks has frustrated DFS owners in the past, but both of them should be fine in a matchup where New Orleans should comfortably move the ball through the air.
The Takeaway: Oakland’s defense is improving, but New Orleans should still be able to move the ball through the air in this game. Drew Brees is a fine quarterback option, while Willie Snead, Brandin Cooks, and Coby Fleener can all be used as well. Feel free to roll with whatever fits your roster construction best, though Brees does tend to spread the ball around. A traditional Superdome shootout should be in store for this afternoon contest.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
| San Diego Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 43 | 18 | -7 | 43 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 25 | 2 | 31 | Offense | 25.3 | 9 | 30 | 6 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 21 | 12 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 3 | 20 | 3 | San Diego Chargers | 12 | 26 | 5 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Allen | 89 | 67 | 4 | 725 | Maclin | 131 | 92 | 8 | 1,140 | |
| Benjamin | 125 | 68 | 5 | 966 | Wilson | 72 | 42 | 3 | 517 | |
| Inman | 63 | 35 | 3 | 486 | Conley | 41 | 23 | 2 | 241 | |
| Gates | 85 | 56 | 5 | 630 | Kelce | 122 | 86 | 5 | 1,026 | |
Vegas Odds – KC (-7) / O/U 44 1/2
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jamaal Charles (KC RB) – Doubtful (Knee)
SD Matchup Rating: 3.5
KC Matchup Rating: 7.0
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: This is a tough matchup for Philip Rivers and company. The Chiefs have one of the biggest home field advantages in all of football, and their defense is above average at every level. Rivers is always prone to the occasional silly mistake or pick-six, so you can give the Chiefs defense a look. The one positive is that the Chargers are likely to be playing from behind in this game, so expect Rivers to rack up plenty of second half passing attempts. That’s not enough to move the needle for me.
Running Game: Melvin Gordon was one of the biggest disappointments of 2015, but with Branden Oliver out for the season, the Chargers have no choice but to give Gordon a decent workload. He looked solid in the preseason and did some offseason work with Adrian Peterson. It appears that may have helped Gordon, though things can’t possibly go much worse than they did last year. Danny Woodhead will of course have his role in the passing game, especially if the Chargers fall way behind in this game. I will not be targeting either player in a difficult matchup against the Chiefs.
Pass Catchers: With Malcom Floyd gone and Stevie Johnson injured, the Chargers lack depth in the receiving corps. Keenan Allen is the obvious #1 target and will see double digit looks on a weekly basis. He won’t come cheap in DFS, and there are better weeks to use him than this one. Travis Benjamin steps in as the other starting outside receiver, and he is a boom-or-bust weekly target that will have some games where he smashes value for his price tag and other games where he puts up very weak lines. I am not interested in either receiver here. Antonio Gates is a fine tight end option for as many weeks as he can stay healthy, as he should remain a primary target for Rivers.
The Takeaway: This matchup sets up well for the Kansas City defense, and I will have plenty of exposure to them this week. I am largely avoiding the San Diego offense as a large road underdog in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Alex Smith has always been and always will be a game manager. He’s never going to have that week that flat out wins you a DFS contest, and he is rarely targeted by anyone. This is not the time to start.
Running Game: Kansas City will happily run the football, especially if they get a lead in this game. This is also the spot to attack the San Diego defense, as the Chargers ranked 27th in the NFL in rush defense a year ago. The biggest news to come out of Kansas City in recent days has been that Spencer Ware is likely to open the season as the primary running back. Jamaal Charles is not fully recovered from his knee injury, and he may very well be held out of this game. Ware will only cost you $5,400 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings, and he will likely be one of the most popular value options on the board. Keep an eye on this situation leading up to game day.
Pass Catchers: Since the Chiefs are comfortable throwing the ball as little as they have to, there often isn’t a lot of production to go around for the receiving corps. The good news is that Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce soak up a large percentage of the targets. Both are reasonably safe options most weeks, but they carry more value in weeks where the game flow is expected to put Kansas City behind. This isn’t one of those weeks.
The Takeaway: It’s Spencer Ware and only Spencer Ware for me on this Kansas City squad. Game flow projects for the Chiefs to be able to sit on a lead in this game, and I don’t expect Alex Smith to have to throw the ball more than 22-24 times. If Jamaal Charles ends up being inactive, Ware will likely be one of the two or three highest owned players on the board against a weak San Diego rush defense. This matchup sets up very well for production from the Chiefs’ rushing attack.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
| Buffalo Bills | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 43 | 20 | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.7 | 12 | 29 | 1 | Offense | 20.5 | 24 | 9 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 24 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 22.4 | 15 | 17 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 20 | 8 | 29 | 2 | Buffalo Bills | 19 | 15 | 25 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 96 | 60 | 9 | 1,047 | Smith | 73 | 46 | 3 | 670 | |
| Woods | 80 | 47 | 3 | 552 | Aiken | 127 | 75 | 5 | 944 | |
| Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 24 | Wallace | 73 | 40 | 2 | 483 | |
| Clay | 78 | 51 | 3 | 528 | Watson | 110 | 74 | 6 | 825 | |
Vegas Odds – BAL (-3) / O/U 44 1/2
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kenneth Dixon (BAL RB) – Out (Knee) / Dennis Pitta (BAL TE) – Questionable (Finger)
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor is a better quarterback than most folks give him credit for, and his decision making skills are best shown off by his fine total of just six interceptions a year ago. He is also capable of making plays with his legs, as he averaged 41 rushing yards per game last year. Those are four valuable fantasy points, and they equate to an extra passing touchdown per game. The Baltimore defense is still solid across the board, but they are an aging unit that is no longer elite. Taylor will also have a strong narrative going here, as he is playing against his former team that basically never gave him a chance. If you are looking for a mid-range DFS quarterback, there are worse plays than Taylor in this spot.
Running Game: Karlos Williams is gone, and we finally have a little more clarity in the Buffalo backfield. LeSean McCoy is the clear #1 back, while Mike Gillislee and Reggie Bush will compete for a handful of carries (likely going to Gillislee) and some passing down work (likely going to Bush). McCoy is the guy you want here, though I don’t love his prospects in a road game against a decent defense. I’ll side with the passing game for Buffalo this week. Keep an eye on how the workload shakes out, though, especially since both McCoy and Bush are somewhat injury prone.
Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins is a 2016 breakout candidate, and the Ravens don’t have the most imposing group of defensive backs. Their prospects largely hinge on whether or not Jimmy Smith can regain his form from a couple years ago. I wouldn’t bank on that right out of the gate. Watkins is an explosive athlete who has massive GPP upside in this game, and that is the format where I would rather use him. He is clearly the top pass catcher on this team, though Robert Woods and Charles Clay will have the outlier good game here and there. It’s Watkins’ receiving corps to dominate.
The Takeaway: The Taylor/Watkins combination is a fantastic GPP stack in this game, as Baltimore no longer possesses a defense that we need to shy away from targeting. I will avoid the peripheral options and the running game here. This is not the most exciting game of the weekend, but Taylor and Watkins will be fun to watch if they both manage to stay healthy in 2016.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Is Joe Flacco elite? I have no idea why that question still comes up all the time. We will never know how good he could have been, as he has always been limited by poor receiving options. Despite this, when has Flacco put up a performance where you regret not taking him? It maybe comes once a year. There’s no reason to reach, even in a matchup that isn’t the most imposing on paper. Move along.
Running Game: In one of the more shocking roster moves, the Ravens cut Justin Forsett after their final preseason game. Impressive rookie Kenneth Dixon is injured, so Baltimore appeared to be limited in terms of depth at the running back spot heading into the opener. That was good news for Terrance West and Javorius Allen, two other talented running backs. This Baltimore running back situation was one of the most confusing in all of fantasy football two weeks ago, but it suddenly became much more clear. That is, until word came out Sunday night that the Ravens will likely re-sign Forsett. This is just bizarre. West and Forsett should handle most of the early down work with Allen mixing in on passing downs. It sounds like West is still the guy we want, and it helps he will cost you less than $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Buffalo ranked 16th against the run a year ago, so the matchup is there as well. Keep an eye on the news heading up to game day to see if we get any more clarity here.
Pass Catchers: Good luck figuring this one out. Mike Wallace is a boom-or-bust deep threat. Steve Smith Sr. is coming off the worst injury of his career. Breshad Perriman oozes upside but has yet to play an NFL down and is injury-phone himself. Kamar Aiken is the boring, safe option that should produce if he gets the snaps. There’s no way I am touching this situation until we get some snap count clarity.
The Takeaway: Avoid the muddled passing game in Baltimore until we figure out how the receiving snaps are going to shake out. The running game looked to be clearing up until the Ravens re-signed Justin Forsett after cutting him. This Baltimore team is going to be frustrating to figure out in the early going, and it’s probably best skipping over them entirely as you set your early season DFS rosters. If for some reason Justin Forsett is inactive for the opener, Terrance West is definitely in play.
