NFL Grind Down: Week 10 - Page Two
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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
| Atlanta Falcons | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50 | 24.5 | -1 | 50 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 33.9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | Offense | 25.3 | 10 | 28 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 28.8 | 28 | 30 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 13 | 13 | 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 32 | 24 | 31 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 6 | 81 | 5 | 970 | Matthews | 8 | 65 | 3 | 507 | |
| Sanu | 10 | 57 | 3 | 416 | Agholor | 10 | 43 | 1 | 257 | |
| Hardy | 3 | 13 | 2 | 83 | Green-Beckham | 7 | 36 | 1 | 194 | |
| Tamme | 10 | 31 | 3 | 210 | Ertz | 2 | 28 | 0 | 247 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tevin Coleman (ATL RB) – Out (Hamstring) / Desmond Trufant (ATL CB) – Out (Shoulder)
ATL Matchup Rating: 7.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The beat continues to roll on for Matt Ryan, who is coming off another fine performance against Tampa Bay last Thursday. He leads the league with 2,980 passing yards while trailing only Drew Brees in yards per game, as the Falcons have not had their bye yet. He is completing almost 70% of his passes, and he has 23 touchdowns to just four interceptions on the year. The Eagles are not the best matchup, and they still lead the NFL in DVOA against the pass — though they have slipped a bit in recent weeks. I won’t talk you out of Matt Ryan if you want to use him, as this game does have a 50 point projected total. However, I prefer other options on a per dollar basis.
Running Backs: Current indications seem to show that Tevin Coleman will not return this week, which will leave the primary backfield duties to Devonta Freeman once again. He had a decidedly average game against Tampa Bay with 17 carries for 77 yards, and the Falcons still mixed in Terron Ward quite a bit. The Eagles are weaker against the run than the pass per the metrics, though they aren’t bad by any means. If Coleman remains sidelined, Freeman is in play as a mid-range RB #2 option. If Coleman plays, this is a total stay away for me.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Coleman has been ruled out, so feel free to roll with Freeman if you like.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones continues to produce at an elite level. He racked up an 8/111/1 line against the Bucs on a healthy 11 targets, and he is definitely in the conversation this week at wide receiver. The problem is that he is priced at a hefty tag that is quite a bit higher than even other “good” wide receivers. I don’t know if we can pay that price in cash games this week. The optimal lineup build would seem to exclude Julio, but many people will think that way. If he is going to be low owned, I’ll gladly pair him up with Ryan on some GPP rosters. The rest of the pass catchers are inconsistent and are GPP fliers at best, though Mohamed Sanu has been elevating his play of late. He would be my favorite target outside of Jones.
The Takeaway: The Falcons offensive machine continues to chug along, and they are projected to score more points in Philadelphia than the Broncos are projected to score in New Orleans. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have high price tags, but they have as much upside as any QB/WR combination out there. Devonta Freeman is an intriguing option if Tevin Coleman is out again.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Like their opponents, the Eagles are also projected to score right around 25 points this week. If you can accurately peg where those points are going to come from, you just might win some money in DFS this week. The league is adjusting to Carson Wentz faster than he is adjusting to the league, as his numbers have been poor by any measure since Week 4. His yardage totals have been 179, 138, 202, and 364 since then, but the 364 yard game came with no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Eagles were also playing from a large deficit in the second half, so the Giants allowed some easy completions. If you are going risk/reward at quarterback, I prefer other options, but that Vegas total makes this at least worth a pause.
Running Backs: The beat goes on. The Eagles continue to insist that they stand by Ryan Mathews, only for him to get massively out-snapped by Darren Sproles week in and week out, regardless of game flow. I’ll beat the same drum this week. The snap distribution in Week 9 was 60 for Sproles, 8 for Mathews, and 7 for Smallwood and Barner. If that’s not clear enough, I’m not sure what is. Sproles is definitely in play in a favorable matchup here, especially on full PPR sites.
Pass Catchers: Zach Ertz finally had a respectable game with eight grabs for 97 yards last week, catching every target that was sent his way. He has hauled in 23 of 28 targets this year, but he has yet to find the end zone. It’s coming at some point, but he remains hard to trust. Jordan Matthews saw ten targets again last week, and his viability depends on the health of Desmond Trufant, who has yet to practice this week. If Trufant is limited or unable to go, Matthews is a very nice target against a leaky secondary. That’s where the fantasy interest begins and ends with this Eagles receiving corps.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Trufant has been ruled out, so Jordan Matthews gets a very nice matchup this week. He’s a great play in the mid-range of wide receivers.
The Takeaway: Darren Sproles remains under-priced on almost every site despite his heavy snap counts of late, and he is a fine value in a game with sneaky shootout potential. Jordan Matthews is also a fine play if Desmond Trufant is unable to suit up. There is likely going to be an under-the-radar star for the Eagles this week, but predicting that guy is very difficult.
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
| Kansas City Chiefs | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 44 | 20.5 | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.1 | 15 | 19 | 21 | Offense | 25.5 | 9 | 13 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.8 | 23 | 31 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 18.9 | 8 | 14 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 29 | 7 | 28 | 29 | Kansas City Chiefs | 19 | 18 | 27 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 6 | 56 | 2 | 376 | Benjamin | 8 | 64 | 4 | 543 | |
| Conley | 6 | 38 | 0 | 314 | Ginn | 1 | 39 | 0 | 284 | |
| Wilson | 3 | 26 | 1 | 136 | Funchess | 4 | 28 | 2 | 178 | |
| Kelce | 11 | 52 | 3 | 435 | Olsen | 9 | 70 | 3 | 673 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jeremy Maclin (KC WR) – Out (Groin)
KC Matchup Rating: 6.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.0
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: What will become of game manager Alex Smith against a bad secondary? In a common theme of the week, we have a mediocre fantasy quarterback facing a bad secondary (Joe Flacco vs. the Browns, Trevor Siemian vs. the Saints, etc), and it’s tough to project massive fantasy numbers for any of these guys. Smith is coming off an injury where he may or may not have had a concussion, and this will be his first game back. I really don’t want any part of that, even in a favorable matchup.
Running Backs: The Panthers are quietly very stout against the run, as they rank 4th in rush defense DVOA so far this year. In addition, we have a potential time share here with Spencer Ware likely returning for the Chiefs. It’s hard to predict how much usage Ware will get, though they may push him a bit more since Charcandrick West was a bust last week. As of now, I will likely avoid this situation entirely. If we get more clarity on Ware’s potential workload, that may change.
Pass Catchers: The Chiefs don’t throw the ball a lot, and when they do throw it, they attempt to utilize 40 different receivers. Of course, that is an exaggeration, but we have seen no upside from anyone in this unit all year outside of maybe one game where Travis Kelce went nuts. Kelce was the leading receiver again last week, but with a ho-hum five grabs for 58 yards. This is one of the more puzzling matchups of the week, as I don’t know what to make of the Chiefs here. The matchup is great, but who can we rely on? Jeremy Maclin is likely going to be sidelined this week with a groin injury, but sadly there isn’t a reliable replacement. Tyreek Hill is a playmaker but doesn’t see the field enough. Albert Wilson has no upside. Chris Conley? Meh.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Ware is “all systems go” for this week and is definitely in the RB conversation after Charcandrick West was a bust last week. Jeremy Maclin is out, but the other receivers are more boom/bust options than reliable targets.
The Takeaway: I want to find a way to get some exposure to the Chiefs, but with the way they utilize their roster and all the injuries, it is very difficult. I’ll provide an update as we get closer to Sunday if we get any clarity here.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton continues to underwhelm, and even in Carolina’s wins over the last two games, he hasn’t performed up to his usual standards. His pedestrian line from last week included 225 passing yards, one touchdown, and just 16 rushing yards on seven attempts. Of course, there is always upside here, and Newton has been low-owned these days, but it’s getting harder and harder to justify him as even a contrarian option at this point. I will likely scatter him on a few GPP teams this week, but that’s about the extent of my interest.
Running Backs: Jonathan Stewart continues to dominate most of the carries on this team, but there is always the risk of Mike Tolbert or Newton stealing a goal line look. In addition, Stewart ran for just 2.8 yards per carry against the Rams last week. There’s limited upside here despite his two touchdown game a few weeks ago. Kansas City ranks just 18th in DVOA against the run, but that by no means makes Stewart an exciting back to roster in DFS. Look elsewhere for upside.
Pass Catchers: Kelvin Benjamin was red hot to start the season, but he has cooled considerably of late, failing to top 100 yards since mid-September. His targets have been hit-or-miss, too, as he has just twelve over the last two games combined. The primary pass catcher continues to be Greg Olsen, who is coming off a 5/52/1 performance against the Rams. Olsen is appropriately priced and facing a team that contains tight ends very well, so I would only consider him if he totally fits the rest of your lineup build. None of the other wide receivers are consistent enough to use in fantasy.
The Takeaway: This is another tough spot. Carolina should be able to run the ball against the Chiefs, but that isn’t necessarily their strength. Maybe Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart can get it going this week. They are both risky plays, as is Kelvin Benjamin against a good secondary. Greg Olsen doesn’t profile as an elite option against a good tight end defense. I likely won’t have a ton of Carolina exposure this week.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Chicago Bears | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.4 | 31 | 15 | 24 | Offense | 22.5 | 18 | 16 | 15 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.0 | 29 | 28 | 25 | Opp. Defense | 22.4 | 14 | 11 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28 | 26 | 30 | 18 | Chicago Bears | 14 | 1 | 32 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 7 | 63 | 1 | 583 | Evans | 10 | 101 | 8 | 745 | |
| Royal | 7 | 37 | 2 | 338 | Humphries | 2 | 45 | 1 | 337 | |
| Meredith | 5 | 39 | 1 | 331 | Shepard | 4 | 13 | 2 | 123 | |
| Miller | 7 | 54 | 3 | 393 | Brate | 9 | 43 | 4 | 291 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eddie Royal (CHI WR) – Questionable (Toe) / Jacquizz Rodgers (TB RB) – Out (Foot) / Doug Martin (TB RB) – Questionable (Hamstring)
CHI Matchup Rating: 6.5
TB Matchup Rating: 6.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: The Bears are coming off a big win over the Vikings and a bye week, so they are probably feeling as good as they have all season. The team is also as healthy as it has been all season, which is another positive factor. The Bucs rank just 20th in DVOA against the pass this year, and Jay Cutler will only cost you $5,300 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. He could be that 3-5% owned cheap quarterback that makes waves for some winning GPP lineups this week.
Running Backs: Everyone abandoned the Jordan Howard bandwagon two weeks ago. First off, the Bears were facing the Vikings elite defense. Second, Jeremy Langford was back in the mix to muddle up the carries. Of course, Howard proceeded to have his best game of the year with 26 carries for 153 yards and a touchdown. He also caught four passes for 49 yards. Meanwhile, Ka’Deem Carey got just two carries and Jeremy Langford didn’t sniff one. It would appear that this is Howard’s backfield again, but perhaps they incorporate Langford more coming out of the bye. Watch throughout the week for updates, but all the reports are positive about Howard. He’s a reasonable mid-range target at running back.
Pass Catchers: Cutler’s return to health is great news for Alshon Jeffery. Cutler is not afraid to force the ball his way, while Brian Hoyer was not willing to take such chances. Jeffery is very cheap on almost every site, and he has the potential to make return on that investment in a big way against a hit-or-miss secondary. He’s one of my favorite wide receiver targets this week. Zach Miller is also in play as a value tight end, as he is having a well-rounded, fine season. He caught seven passes for 88 yards on 10 targets against Minnesota two weeks ago.
The Takeaway: I really like this position for the Bears coming out of their bye. Jay Cutler, Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, and Zach Miller are all viable plays against a leaky Tampa Bay defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: The entire Tampa Bay offense is injured. Jameis Winston appears to be okay for this week’s game after leaving early in Thursday’s loss to the Falcons. Thankfully for the Bucs, they have a longer week here to get ready. They need it for health purposes more than anything. The Bears rank in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense, but Tampa Bay might struggle a bit at less than full strength. I prefer Jay Cutler over Winston if you are saving at quarterback.
Running Backs: Antone Smith is now out for the season after earning a role against the Falcons, so that was fast. Doug Martin might return this week, and it sounds like he is practicing here on Wednesday as I write this. If he sits out, Peyton Barber will likely get a fairly hefty workload. This is a spot we will have to revisit later in the week.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans is the target monster here, but he is currently in the concussion protocol. If he sits out, there will be a value option to look at here in Tampa with so many targets to go around. If Evans plays, he is obviously the primary target. Again, this is a spot we will revisit later in the week.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Doug Martin was a full participant in Friday’s practice. It sounds like he is going to return but will be on a snap count. I think I have to avoid this situation. Mike Evans has been fully cleared and is locked in as a top three WR option given his massive target volume and Tampa’s fast offensive pace.
The Takeaway: I prefer Cutler to Winston if you are looking for a value QB in this game. There are other spots we can target for the Bucs, but it all comes down to what the injury report looks like. Check back later in the week for an update.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
| Minnesota Vikings | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.4 | 25 | 25 | 31 | Offense | 23.3 | 14 | 3 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.6 | 19 | 15 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 15.8 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 8 | 27 | 8 | 14 | Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 9 | 2 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 8 | 66 | 2 | 546 | Jackson | 6 | 56 | 1 | 416 | |
| Thielen | 4 | 41 | 1 | 432 | Garcon | 8 | 55 | 1 | 396 | |
| Patterson | 4 | 32 | 2 | 239 | Crowder | 10 | 57 | 4 | 498 | |
| Rudolph | 9 | 57 | 4 | 323 | Reed | 6 | 59 | 3 | 415 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeSean Jackson (WAS WR) – Doubtful (Shoulder)
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: The Vikings are reeling. After a bad loss to the Bears, they let Detroit drive down the field in 33 seconds to kick a game-tying field goal last week before losing in overtime. Sam Bradford was efficient in the game, completing 31 of 40 throws for 273 yards and a touchdown, but the big plays just aren’t there. The lack of a reliable running game also hurts. Washington is more vulnerable via the run game, so I can’t trust Bradford in this spot.
Running Backs: Unfortunately, it’s hard for us to take advantage of a Washington defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the run. Minnesota has a jumbled mess of a backfield, whereby Matt Asiata played 27 snaps last week, Jerick McKinnon played 25, and Ronnie Hillman played 17. A two-headed time share is hard enough. Three is a definite pass no matter how juicy the matchup is.
Pass Catchers: The Vikings are making a concerted effort to get the ball into Stefon Diggs hands, and that’s good news for his fantasy value. He caught 13 passes last week, though he was unable to break any for huge gains. The big ones will come as long as the targets are there, and he caught all but one of the targets last week. However, he will see a lot of Josh Norman this week in all likelihood. This isn’t a great matchup for Minnesota’s receivers. Perhaps Adam Thielen can continue his solid play. Kyle Rudolph has been a disappointment over the last month. His only catch last week was a one yard touchdown, and he is very touchdown-dependent.
The Takeaway: I will likely have zero exposure to Minnesota this week. The three-headed monster at running back is a fantasy nightmare, and Sam Bradford doesn’t inspire much confidence to right a sinking ship. Stefon Diggs gets a bump down with Josh Norman on the other side.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: The Minnesota defense frustrated Matthew Stafford for 3 1/2 quarters last week, but Stafford managed to do enough late for the Lions to squeak out a victory. This is not the week to take Kirk Cousins. Even though the Vikings are struggling, they still rank 4th in DVOA against the pass.
Running Backs: Washington is saying that Matt Jones will have to “earn” his carries again. I have no idea what that means in coach speak, so I will avoid this backfield, too. Like Minnesota, they also have three guys in the mix.
Pass Catchers: Jamison Crowder is quietly becoming the #1 receiver in Washington. He put up a fine 9/107/1 line in the game against Cincinnati in London before the bye, and he is in play as his price remains very affordable across the industry. DeSean Jackson has been banged up this year and not productive, and it looks like his big play GPP upside has evaporated. The other viable target is Jordan Reed, who is a freak athlete at tight end as long as he stays healthy. I just don’t love his price tag in an average at best matchup.
SATURDAY UPDATE – It sounds like Matt Jones might be a healthy scratch for this game, which makes Rob Kelley a little more interesting as the early down and goal line back. He’s in the value discussion at RB. DeSean Jackson is doubtful for this game, so upgrade Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed a little bit.
The Takeaway: I won’t have many shares of Washington players this week, either. This game has a low 42 projected point total of its own. The only player I am interested in is the emerging Jamison Crowder, who still seems a bit too cheap on most DFS sites.
