RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 10
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get the best perks in the industry.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
| Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 45 | 17.5 | -10 | 45 | 27.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.7 | 29 | 22 | 20 | Offense | 19.3 | 26 | 18 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | Opp. Defense | 30.3 | 31 | 23 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 16 | 2 | 29 | 3 | Cleveland Browns | 30 | 30 | 19 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Pryor | 7 | 83 | 4 | 579 | Wallace | 7 | 67 | 4 | 614 | |
| Coleman | 3 | 20 | 2 | 214 | Smith | 3 | 47 | 1 | 357 | |
| Hawkins | 9 | 40 | 3 | 237 | Aiken | 1 | 25 | 0 | 156 | |
| Barnidge | 3 | 50 | 0 | 426 | Pitta | 5 | 60 | 0 | 349 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 7.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: This could be an ugly game for the Browns on a short week. They are still winless, and they ran just 44 offensive plays in last week’s loss to the Cowboys. Cody Kessler was decent in the first half, but the entire offense got shut down after the break. Kessler tends to play conservative, and the coaching staff is trying to get him to take more downfield shots. That makes sense when your wide receivers are Corey Coleman and Terrelle Pryor, two very good athletes with some speed. In any event, Kessler is not a fantasy option at this point.
Running Backs: Cleveland is still splitting reps between Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson. As a team, they rank just 20th in rushing yards per game. The opposing Ravens rank first in DVOA against the run. There’s no need to go here or even consider these guys unless you are desperate on the Mon-Thu only slate that ends with this game. In that case, I’d give Johnson the nod due to his receiving ability.
Pass Catchers: Corey Coleman and Terrelle Pryor are capable of putting up good fantasy numbers. The problem is that Kessler’s style of play really limits their ceilings. Both saw seven targets a week ago, and Coleman checks in as the more affordable of the two on virtually every site. I can see taking a chance on him in a GPP, especially if the Browns are playing from behind. Gary Barnidge is not seeing enough targets this year to be worth considering.
The Takeaway: The Browns have a meager 17.75 implied team total this week, and they are hefty road underdogs against the Ravens. There’s not much to get excited about here outside of a GPP dart throw at one of the big play receivers in Coleman and Pryor.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The Ravens finally went with a balanced game plan last week against the Steelers, and hey, it worked! Of course, part of that is because they got out to a fairly sizable lead, but the team is more successful when Joe Flacco doesn’t have to throw the ball 50 times. He ranks just 24th in the league in completion percentage at 61.2%, and he has throw for just six touchdowns in eight games. That’s the lowest total of all full-time starters. Even against an awful Browns defense, I can’t go here.
Running Backs: Terrance West out-snapped Kenneth Dixon 30 to 20 last week, but West was massively ineffective for the second straight game. Over his last 25 carries, he has barely averaged more than one yard per tote. Dixon wasn’t great, either, and this is a prime spot for the Ravens to figure out what is going to work in the second half of the season. They are double digit home favorites in this game, and they should look to establish the run early and often. West is too expensive to use given his recent results, but I really like Dixon as a cheap GPP option for Thursday lock contests and short slate contests. He’s $4,600 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings.
Pass Catchers: This unit is painfully difficult to figure out on a week-to-week basis, and you just know that someone is going to have a big game against a terrible Cleveland defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass. The problem is… who is that going to be? Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman played on 50% of snaps last week. Kamar Aiken played on 58%. The only player that was on the field extensively was Steve Smith at 83%, but he has been banged up and I worry about him on a short week. I suppose he’s the best option simply based on safety, while Wallace is a GPP option with his big play ability, as evidenced by his 95 yard touchdown against the Steelers.
The Takeaway: Baltimore is a large favorite in this game, and they should be able to put up some points, but as always, it’s hard to peg where that production will come from. I like Kenneth Dixon and Mike Wallace as GPP options, while Steve Smith is the safest play for cash games. Joe Flacco cannot be trusted given the fact that he has thrown just six touchdown passes in eight games this year.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42 | 21.75 | 1.5 | 42 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.1 | 30 | 30 | 11 | Offense | 19.1 | 28 | 14 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.9 | 25 | 5 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 20.9 | 11 | 2 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 17 | 22 | 5 | Houston Texans | 2 | 20 | 3 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 5 | 76 | 3 | 434 | Robinson | 13 | 81 | 4 | 442 | |
| Fuller | 4 | 51 | 2 | 372 | Hurns | 11 | 60 | 2 | 443 | |
| Miller | 6 | 14 | 0 | 52 | Lee | 6 | 49 | 0 | 442 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 5 | 38 | 3 | 279 | Thomas | 4 | 36 | 3 | 245 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will Fuller (HOU WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Questionable (Concussion)
HOU Matchup Rating: 6.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.5
Houston Texans
Quarterback: The terrible quarterbacks just keep rolling in. Brock Osweiler has a couple notches below Flacco is terms of completion percentage, and he is averaging a paltry 215 passing yards per game this year. The Jaguars are also much better against the pass than the run. There is no need to give Osweiler anything beyond a cursory glance in this spot.
Running Backs: Given Osweiler’s struggles and Jacksonville’s defense that is much better against the pass than the run, it would make sense for Houston to take a run-heavy approach in this game. The Texans are coming off a bye, which hopefully means Lamar Miller is close to 100% after playing through a shoulder injury in Week 8. His price is a little higher than I would like, but the matchup is great and the bye week helps. He is in the conversation at the running back spot, but he is by no means a must roster.
Pass Catchers: Will Fuller picked up steam to start his NFL career but has been dreadful ever since, primarily thanks to the struggles of Osweiler. DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t cleared 71 yards in a game since Week 2 and will see a lot of Jalen Ramsey. The only receiver that Osweiler seems comfortable throwing to is C.J. Fiedorowicz, who has 16 catches on 21 targets over the last three games with a pair of touchdowns. He is certainly in play if you are looking for a low-to-mid range tight end this week.
The Takeaway: Jacksonville is better against the pass than the run, so it’s almost impossible to trust Brock Osweiler or his receivers here, outside of a possible cheap play with C.J. Fiedorowicz at tight end. This feels like a Lamar Miller week, assuming he is back to 100% health coming out of the bye.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Naturally, Blake Bortles got himself a late touchdown last week that was irrelevant to the final outcome of the game. He thrives in garbage time, but this profiles as a game that the Jaguars might have a chance to win, as they are only one point underdogs. What is Bortles going to do without garbage time? The answer is probably not much, especially against a Houston pass defense that ranks 7th in DVOA this year.
Running Backs: Both teams have similar defenses that are good against the pass and poor against the run. The problem on this side is that we really can’t take advantage of that with Jacksonville’s running back committee. It doesn’t look that way if you look at last week’s box score, as Chris Ivory got 18 carries compared to seven for T.J. Yeldon. However, Yeldon actually played nine more snaps than Ivory. This is by no means Ivory’s backfield. He may draw some interest this week because of his 100 yard game, but I am uncomfortable giving either of these guys a ringing endorsement. There are better options on a full slate.
Pass Catchers: Here we are in Week 10, and Allen Robinson season high for yardage was his 76 yard game in Week 1. It’s not like he’s been making up for it with huge touchdown totals, either, though he did haul in his fourth touchdown grab of the year last week. Against a good pass defense, I am not going to mess with any of the Jacksonville receivers this week. Marqise Lee has been solid in three of the last four games, but he was awful the one week where he became somewhat popular. This situation is better left alone.
The Takeaway: I likely won’t have many shares of this offense. The Houston defense is good against the pass, so that takes most of the appeal away there. The Jacksonville backfield is a time share, and the team ranks 26th in rushing yards per game. If I had to pick one guy, hope that the Jaguars can get a lead (or at least stay close), and take a chance with Chris Ivory, who is a better runner than T.J. Yeldon.
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
| Denver Broncos | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 49.5 | 23.75 | -2 | 49.5 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 13 | 26 | 23 | Offense | 30.3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.8 | 30 | 32 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 18.4 | 7 | 1 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 24 | 31 | 11 | 22 | Denver Broncos | 1 | 24 | 1 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 11 | 74 | 4 | 591 | Cooks | 7 | 62 | 5 | 596 | |
| Sanders | 14 | 86 | 3 | 614 | Snead | 4 | 51 | 2 | 475 | |
| Fowler | 1 | 16 | 1 | 59 | Thomas | 9 | 63 | 5 | 573 | |
| Green | 2 | 22 | 0 | 187 | Fleener | 7 | 47 | 2 | 359 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Aqib Talib (DEN CB) – Out (Back)
DEN Matchup Rating: 9.0
NO Matchup Rating: 6.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Is a team playing the Saints this week? Yes? Take players from that team. Colin Kaepernick shredded this pass defense for almost 400 PASSING yards last week, and Kaepernick is by no means a QB that generally racks up the passing yards. In fact, he’s pretty much the opposite of that. Trevor Siemian is no great shakes himself, but he could very easily put up a 290 yard, two touchdown line against this New Orleans defense. That will be good enough to pay off his cheap salary across the industry. If you’re going cheap at the position, Siemian has to be in the discussion.
Running Backs: This is where things get interesting. Devontae Booker has been a little over-hyped since the week where he was a no brainer play, and hopefully you heeded the caution I threw out in last week’s Grind Down. Kapri Bibbs played on just eight snaps last week, but he made the most of them by catching a 69 yard touchdown in the process. There are rumblings that this might be an even split in terms of workload this week, which makes Bibbs awfully interesting at dirt cheap prices. Be sure to monitor this situation closely.
Pass Catchers: It’s always tough to pick between Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, but one or both of them could have field days against the Saints. Bibbs and Jordan Norwood both got receiving touchdowns last week; that is unlikely to happen again. I will certainly have shares of both Sanders and Thomas in all formats this week, while you can pair one or both of them with Siemian for some GPP upside.
The Takeaway: It’s easy to love teams against this Saints defense, but I’ll offer one word of caution: the Broncos currently have a team total of 23 points, which isn’t THAT high for a team facing the Saints. I am cautious on the running game, but Kapri Bibbs is an interesting option if rumors of him getting more work prove true. Trevor Siemian is in play as a value QB option, while Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas draw great matchups here.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Drew Brees is good. Drew Brees is good at home. A matchup with the Broncos would normally scare us off, but this Denver defense isn’t quite the same without Aqib Talib in the mix. They haven’t allowed huge passing numbers over the last two weeks, but they didn’t make any big plays against the Raiders. The Saints are home favorites here, which tells you how much Vegas respects Denver right now. I won’t be using Brees because the Denver pass defense is still good, but I understand the possible logic behind it.
Running Backs: Where you can attack Denver is via the ground game. Denver ranks just 20th in DVOA against the run (compared to 2nd against the pass). The Raiders ran for 218 yards last week, while Latavius Murray tallied three touchdowns in the process. The challenge lies in figuring out who to trust between Tim Hightower and Mark Ingram. As the coaching staff suggested, the work was split almost 50/50 last week against the awful San Francisco rush defense. Hightower played 36 snaps and ran for 3.8 yards per carry (23 carries, 87 yards, one score). Ingram played 33 snaps and ran for 10.5 yards per carry (15 carries, 158 yards, one score). Ingram also added a receiving touchdown. It’s pretty clear who the best runner is on this team. With both guys available at reasonable price tags, I’ll side with Ingram being the better option this week.
Pass Catchers: Brees is showing a remarkable chemistry with Michael Thomas, especially in the red zone. I still don’t like targeting receivers against the Broncos, but Thomas remains affordable. Brandin Cooks is always capable of a big play. These guys are definitely GPP-only against a good pass defense, though.
The Takeaway: The best way to attack the Broncos is on the ground, as the Raiders exposed last week. I’ll side with Mark Ingram getting more work after looking very good (albeit against the 49ers) in Week 9. The passing game can be utilized in GPPs via a risk/reward approach against a good pass defense, as the Saints are always a threat to do damage through the air at home.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
| Los Angeles Rams | New York Jets | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 39.5 | 18.75 | -2 | 39.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.3 | 32 | 23 | 29 | Offense | 19.2 | 27 | 27 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.1 | 24 | 24 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 20.9 | 11 | 10 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 21 | 19 | 23 | 20 | Los Angeles Rams | 9 | 6 | 21 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Britt | 5 | 54 | 3 | 584 | Marshall | 16 | 86 | 2 | 585 | |
| Austin | 7 | 66 | 2 | 316 | Enunwa | 8 | 63 | 3 | 527 | |
| Quick | 3 | 38 | 3 | 405 | Marshall | 2 | 15 | 1 | 134 | |
| Kendricks | 5 | 52 | 1 | 331 | Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Todd Gurley (LA RB) – Questionable (Thigh) / Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ QB) – Questionable (Knee)
LA Matchup Rating: 4.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.0
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: The Rams/Jets game checks in with a 40 point total that is easily the lowest of Week 10. Yes, the Jets have a bad pass defense. No, that is not enough to get me to consider Case Keenum. The Rams were only able to put up ten points against a bad Carolina secondary last week, and Keenum completed less than 60% of his passes in that one.
Running Backs: I do feel bad for Todd Gurley. Teams can stack the box to stop him, and he has not had a game with more than 85 rushing yards this year. He has only three touchdowns, and he is not a real threat in the passing game with Benny Cunningham back in the mix to steal some snaps. Gurley is off the fantasy radar against the Jets’ rush defense, which ranks 2nd in DVOA in that department.
Pass Catchers: Is Lance Kendricks a thing now? He saw twelve targets against the Panthers, catching seven of them for a respectable 90 yards. Kenny Britt also came through with another touchdown. Both guys are still very cheap on most sites, and this is the most logical way to get some exposure to a team that is facing the New York pass defense. I don’t hate either guy, though I would not play them both on the same roster.
The Takeaway: The Jets can be exploited through the air, so feel free to roll with a pass catcher here. Kenny Britt and the suddenly surging Lance Kendricks are viable value plays this week. I still can’t trust Case Keenum, and I definitely can’t trust Todd Gurley in this matchup.
New York Jets
Quarterback: Since re-gaining the starting job after Geno Smith got injured, Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 33 of 62 passes for 421 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. That is not good for two full games, especially since they came against Cleveland and Miami. He’s simply not a good NFL quarterback, and he shouldn’t be on your fantasy rosters.
Running Backs: The Jets are still using Bilal Powell quite a bit, as he saw just six fewer snaps than Matt Forte against Miami. However, Forte is still playing quite well. Even though he only got 12 carries last week, Forte turned them into 92 yards and a touchdown, good for a sparkling 7.7 yards per carry average. He isn’t generally that efficient, though, and his good fantasy games tend to come via volume and touchdowns. The Rams rank 7th in DVOA against the run, and I don’t like the spot or the price tag for Forte this week.
Pass Catchers: The poor play of Ryan Fitzpatrick has really affected the passing game, and no receiver topped 60 yards last week. Brandon Marshall is still getting a healthy dose of targets, but the big plays haven’t been there. There are better spots this week. Remember, this game has a very low 40 point total.
The Takeaway: I’m really not enamored by the Jets in this spot. Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall are fine, but there are better options on a per dollar basis in my opinion.