NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-11-19 16:16:51

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans						Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	53	25				-3	53	28
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.4	8	22	3		Offense	26.6	7	7	23
Opp. Defense	28.4	29	31	22		Opp. Defense	25.1	22	26	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	29	23	16	27		Tennessee Titans	24	8	26	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Matthews	53	36	6	483		Hilton	90	52	4	791
Sharpe	58	30	1	385		Moncrief	25	14	3	169
Wright	30	21	3	324		Dorsett	35	20	1	314
Walker	62	42	5	571		Allen	29	19	2	207

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

TEN Matchup Rating: 7.5
IND Matchup Rating: 8.0

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: The Titans/Colts contest checks in with a very high over/under of 53 points, and this represents the highest game total of the week. It’s even higher than the New Orleans/Carolina contest on Thursday. While this came as a bit of a surprise, it really makes some sense. Both teams have talent on offense, and both teams have struggled at times on the defensive end. Marcus Mariota has been putting up elite level fantasy numbers in recent weeks, and that included a four touchdown performance against the Packers last week. Most sites have bumped Mariota’s salary considerably this week, but he has another great matchup here. Feel free to ride the hot hand.

Running Backs: The Colts are ranked 32nd in DVOA against the run, so DeMarco Murray should be able to get in on some fun in this game, too. He was massively under-owned last week with all the other high dollar running backs in good spots, so of course he ripped off a 75 yard touchdown run and threw a touchdown pass in the first quarter alone. He won’t come cheap, but he’s certainly a safe option on the high end of running backs this week, especially for your cash games.

Pass Catchers: How about the resurgence of Rishard Matthews? His snap count has been on the rise, and he now has six touchdown receptions in the last six games. His price tag is still a nice value at $6,000 on FanDuel and $5,100 on DraftKings, so I have no problem going back to the well against a leaky Colts defense. There is some worry that Vontae Davis might shadow him, but I don’t consider Matthews shadow-worthy just yet — though he is really the only guy we can trust for fantasy purposes outside of the dependable Delanie Walker at tight end. Walker is a good play in his own right after he logged 100 yards in the first half against Green Bay.

The Takeaway: This game has plenty of shootout potential, and all the Tennessee skill players are in play. Mariota, Murray, Matthews (the M clan), and Walker are all solid options in this one.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: Indianapolis is coming off what surely was a much needed bye week after the beating that Andrew Luck has taken this year. Struggles along the offensive line have led to a lot of sacks, and the offense should be a little more refreshed after a big road win over Green Bay followed by a week off. The Titans aren’t much better than the Colts against the pass, ranking 26th in that department in DVOA. Luck is a little pricey in DFS, but the Colts have a 28 point projected team total here. He is in play as a top tier quarterback option.

Running Backs: Where’s my standard blurb about Frank Gore? Hang on… There we go!

This is from three weeks ago:

A week after getting the first 100 yard rushing game for a Colts’ RB in three and a half seasons, Frank Gore went back to his traditional line of 17 carries for 61 yards on Sunday. He salvaged his day with five receptions and a touchdown grab, but that probably won’t happen again all season. You can’t win fantasy contests with running backs that generally gain 60-80 yards and maybe score once. As usual, I have no interest in Old Man Gore.

In what seems oddly hilarious, Frank Gore had 19 carries for 60 yards against the Packers before the bye week (a week after I wrote that). Of course, he happened to score twice in that game in Green Bay. Outside of the touchdowns, his yardage numbers are terrible. I’m still going to be stubborn here, but you make your own call on Gore.

Pass Catchers: Even though he constantly gets recognition as one of the best receivers in the league, it has been a relatively down year for T.Y. Hilton. He is averaging 88 receiving yards per game and only has four touchdowns in nine weeks. The upside is certainly there, as his only games over 85 yards this year have gone for 174, 171, and 133 yards. He is more of a GPP option than a cash game staple, though people will tell you otherwise. There is a little more competition for targets with Donte Moncrief back in the mix as well, and Moncrief had the only touchdown grab in the last game. He’s in play as a relatively affordable wide receiver option, as this is a very favorable matchup. I will avoid the tight ends now that both Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen are back in the mix.

The Takeaway: This is a fine matchup, with the Colts owning one of the highest projected team totals of the week. The problem is that nobody seems like a great value outside of Donte Moncrief. T.Y. Hilton is better utilized in GPP rosters. Both tight ends are healthy. Frank Gore is going to have a five or six fantasy point game sometime soon. Andrew Luck is in play but doesn’t come at much of a value himself. Getting some exposure to the Colts offense is a good idea in this matchup, but it’s tough to peg the best values.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo Bills						Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	47	22				-3	47	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.3	9	32	2		Offense	20.8	22	8	10
Opp. Defense	23.3	18	16	24		Opp. Defense	22.6	13	14	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	28	21	6	32		Buffalo Bills	11	16	10	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Woods	57	39	1	452		Green	99	66	4	964
Goodwin	37	16	3	301		LaFell	46	29	4	387
Hunter	13	6	3	71		Boyd	42	27	0	295
Clay	46	29	0	283		Eifert	19	13	1	207

Notable injuries and suspensions: Robert Woods (BUF WR) – Questionable (Foot) / Justin Hunter (BUF WR) – Questionable (Groin)

BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.5

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: Like the Colts, the Bills are also coming off their bye week. Tyrod Taylor had one of his best fantasy games of the year heading into the bye, in a surprising performance against Seattle. This is a better matchup than it might appear on the surface, as the Bengals rank just 20th in DVOA against the pass this year. Taylor is off my radar for cash games, but he’s an intriguing low-owned GPP option that also comes pretty cheap — especially on DraftKings where he costs just $5,600. The upside that he provides with his rushing ability helps, too.

Running Backs: Buffalo seems committed to running LeSean McCoy into the ground. First, they let him play when he clearly was not 100% a few weeks ago. Then, after he sat out for a week, they gave him 21 carries against the Seahawks despite the fact that he was questionable to even go in that one. The bye week should have helped, but I can’t trust McCoy at this point. There are other running backs I would rather spend up for in Week 11.

Pass Catchers: Desperate for someone to step up in the receiving corps, the Bills were likely very happy to see Robert Woods put up a 10/162 line on 13 targets against the Seahawks. He is by no means a sexy pick, but he should continue to see double figure targets, this isn’t a bad matchup, and he still has a nice price tag on most sites. The rest of the receiver reps were split between Justin Hunter, Marquise Goodwin, and Brandon Tate, none of whom played on more than 52% of the snaps against Seattle. There’s nobody else here we can trust, as Charles Clay is having an awful year at tight end.

The Takeaway: The receiving corps in Buffalo is depleted, so Robert Woods should continue to see plenty of targets this week. He is a very interesting option this week, as he seems safe for cash games and is an interesting GPP pairing with Tyrod Taylor. Outside of those guys, it’s hard to count on a banged up LeSean McCoy or anyone else in the passing game right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: I have no problem with Andy Dalton, but it’s hard to envision him as a staple of fantasy rosters in anything outside of a GPP stack with A.J. Green. Buffalo hasn’t been stout against the pass this season, but Dalton has a relatively limited ceiling. He still doesn’t have more than two touchdowns in any game this season. There’s not much reason to force him into lineups.

Running Backs: This continues to be a pretty even split, as Giovani Bernard saw 31 snaps last week while Jeremy Hill logged 27 snaps. The week-to-week production is spotty, based on who breaks a big play or what game flow dictates. As usual, Bernard has more appeal on full PPR sites. Hill is the better runner and looks healthy now, which gives him some upside, especially if the Bengals can grab a lead in this game. Both backs are GPP only options against the Bills.

Pass Catchers: A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert should dominate the targets for the Bengals in the second half, and Eifert’s return spells the end of what shred of fantasy value Brandon LaFell may have had. Eifert is quietly one of the best receiving tight ends in the league, and he had a 71 yard grab against the Giants on Monday night. Green is obviously a top tier receiving option every week, and he continues to dominate targets. Both guys are in play here at their positions, though I wouldn’t roster both of them on the same lineup.

The Takeaway: Not much has changed in Cincinnati. Andy Dalton doesn’t have much upside, the running backs remain in a time share, and there are two viable pass catching options in A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. Those two are the most playable options from this Cincinnati squad.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	45	18.75				-7.5	45	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.0	13	14	16		Offense	22.8	17	23	20
Opp. Defense	18.7	7	11	27		Opp. Defense	26.9	26	23	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	20	13	28	5		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25	26	30	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Evans	106	59	8	811		Maclin	56	30	2	376
Humphries	53	35	1	383		Conley	41	27	0	326
Shepard	13	10	2	123		Wilson	33	19	1	161
Brate	50	35	5	375		Kelce	58	42	3	466

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jacquizz Rodgers (TB RB) – Out (Foot) / Jeremy Maclin (KC WR) – Out (Groin)

TB Matchup Rating: 4.5
KC Matchup Rating: 7.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: Jameis Winston has made a nice season out of converting good matchups into great numbers while struggling in poor matchups. This road game against a Chiefs squad that is playing very well does not profile as a good matchup. The Bucs are projected for just 19 points this week, so I will be avoiding Winston in all formats.

Running Backs: Doug Martin will be an interesting fantasy option down the road when his snap count gets back to normal. He played on just 41% of the offensive snaps last week, but Tampa Bay has been ravaged by injuries at the running back position. Since this is a tough matchup, I will wait another week before targeting Martin again.

Pass Catchers: You can always consider Mike Evans because of his upside, especially in tournaments. Kansas City has a good secondary, and they are also very good at containing the tight end position, so nobody else is in play for me.

The Takeaway: Outside of Mike Evans, I really have no interest in anyone on this Tampa Bay squad in what profiles as a very difficult matchup on the road in Kansas City. Doug Martin will be an intriguing play in other weeks, but I can’t endorse him in this one.

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback: Alex Smith is game managing those Chiefs to some wins, baby! They won last week despite a total of 178 yards and an interception from their quarterback. The Chiefs have won five straight games, and one and a half of those were played without Smith. He has thrown for 225 yards or less in each of his last four starts. He has eight touchdown passes in eight games. Let’s move along.

Running Backs: Spencer Ware returned last week and comfortably out-snapped the struggling Charcandrick West, taking 42 snaps compared to just 19 for West. Ware didn’t have a great game against a solid Carolina rush defense, but he should find more room to work against Tampa Bay. Their rush defense has slipped a bit since the early portion of the season, and I like Ware in this one. Kansas City checks in as an eight point home favorite, and they should run the ball plenty in this one. Ware is also reasonably priced on most sites. He is a very intriguing mid-range option here in Week 11.

Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin sat out last week’s game and has yet to practice this week, which seems to indicate that he is close to doubtful for this week’s contest. If he sits out, that is good news for Tyreek Hill, who played on 61% of the offensive snaps last week and logged 10 catches for 89 yards on 13 targets. He is definitely a value option if Maclin is sidelined once again. Travis Kelce would also get a boost, and he is definitely in play in the upper tier of tight ends, especially with Rob Gronkowski likely out this week.

The Takeaway: Spencer Ware is the top target from Kansas City in most formats this week, while you can give a bump to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce if Jeremy Maclin is held out once again. Check back later in the week for an update on this situation.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Maclin is officially out, so upgrade Hill and Kelce significantly in a favorable matchup.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants

Chicago Bears						New York Giants
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	45.5	19.25				-7	45.5	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.7	31	20	22		Offense	20.2	24	12	31
Opp. Defense	20.4	11	22	7		Opp. Defense	23.9	19	12	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	3	15	13	16		Chicago Bears	15	3	32	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Royal	39	30	2	362		Beckham	91	54	6	773
Meredith	41	29	2	381		Shepard	61	39	4	426
Thompson	3	1	0	4		Harris	0	0	0	0
Miller	61	44	3	425		Donnell	21	15	1	92

Notable injuries and suspensions: Eddie Royal (CHI WR) – Questionable (Toe)

CHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 6.5

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: Jay Cutler was atrocious in a great matchup against Tampa Bay last week, and he turned the ball over three times in the game. He is nowhere near the fantasy radar against a Giants pass defense that is much better than people give them credit for. Andy Dalton barely cracked 200 yards against them last week.

Running Backs: Every time we think we have the Bears backfield figured out, they throw us a curveball. As such, we need to take Jordan Howard with somewhat of skeptical view. Even though Howard dominated the carries last week, he still saw just 29 snaps compared to 19 for Jeremy Langford and eight for Ka’Deem Carey. However, it is important to note that many of those snaps came with the game well out of hand. Howard ran for 100 yards on 15 carries while he was in there, and he has looked very good in back-to-back games. He’s not a lock and load play, but he is a decent mid-range option here.

Pass Catchers: The bombshell that hit the news wires early this week was that Alshon Jeffery was being suspended four games for PED use. That leaves a massive hole in the Chicago receiving corps. Is Eddie Royal healthy enough to contribute after seeing just two targets last week? Will Cam Meredith rise again? Does Zach Miller get a bump? Someone is going to produce, but unpredictability reigns supreme. All of them are cheap enough to consider as value picks this week. Miller is very enticing at just $3,800 on DraftKings.

The Takeaway: Just say no to Jay Cutler. This isn’t a great matchup for the Bears, who are projected to score just 19 points. That being said, Jordan Howard is playing well right now and is worth a look at running back. The suspension of Alshon Jeffery opens up opportunity for Cameron Meredith, Eddie Royal, or Zach Miller to step up as a beneficiary in the passing game, too.

New York Giants

Quarterback: The Giants live or die by Eli Manning and his ups and downs, because the team has no running game to speak of. This is a neutral matchup against Chicago’s middle of the pack pass defense. I am squarely in the middle on Manning here. I won’t try to talk you off him if you want to use him as a value quarterback, but I won’t try to talk you onto him, either.

Running Backs: Rashad Jennings isn’t very good. Paul Perkins may be good but the offensive line isn’t opening up any holes. The Giants are averaging just 74 rushing yards per game this season. No thanks.

Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham is thriving as the season wears on, and he caught 10 of his 11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown on Monday against the Bengals. The Bears don’t have anyone capable of covering him (of course, most teams don’t), and Beckham is a top three wide receiver option this week. Nobody else is very consistent, but Sterling Shepard took advantage of the absence of Victor Cruz and put up a 5/42/1 line last week. You could use him as a value play in a pinch, but note that Cruz is tentatively expected to return for this one.

The Takeaway: The Giants have no running game to speak of, so it’s all on the passing game in New York. Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard are in play at the wide receiver position, with Beckham checking in as a top option as usual.

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