RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 11

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-11-21 07:30:59

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get the best perks in the industry.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints						Carolina Panthers
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	52	24.5				-3	52	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	29.4	2	1	17		Offense	24.6	12	13	11
Opp. Defense	25.1	23	28	2		Opp. Defense	29.2	30	32	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	27	4	24	28		New Orleans Saints	23	29	18	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooks	67	44	6	694		Benjamin	76	43	4	627
Snead	58	42	4	522		Ginn	47	29	0	328
Thomas	69	51	5	613		Funchess	32	14	3	234
Fleener	49	30	2	385		Olsen	78	50	3	712

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

NO Matchup Rating: 7.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 8.5

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: Much is made about the home/road splits for Drew Brees, but he has put up similar numbers on the road this year. His completion percentage is a couple ticks higher on the road, but his yards per attempt is a bit lower, along with his TD/INT ratio. The differences are relatively negligible, however. This is a mouth-watering matchup against Carolina, whose leaky secondary ranks just 23rd in DVOA allowed against the pass. As a team, they are allowing 273 passing yards per game. Brees is expensive, but he should be a safe option in a favorable matchup, even though it is a road game. He is averaging 332 passing yards per game and should have no problem with the Carolina secondary. Oh, and he only threw for 465 yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting between these two teams.

Running Backs: The Saints ran significantly fewer plays than the Broncos last week, so we can’t make much of what happened with the running backs. Mark Ingram played 22 snaps compared to 14 for Tim Hightower and 10 for Travaris Cadet. Ingram is clearly the most talented back, and he appears to have learned from his fumble-induced benching a few weeks ago. Tim Hightower gives you little, if any, upside, especially since this is a difficult matchup. I will likely avoid this situation entirely, but Ingram is my choice if forced to choose one. New Orleans will likely take to the air early and often to exploit their favorable matchups in that department.

Pass Catchers: Speaking of those favorable matchups, there should be plenty of goodness to go around in the pass catching department. Here are the stats from the first meeting:

Brandin Cooks: 7/173/1
Michael Thomas: 5/78/1
Coby Fleener: 6/74/1 (and a rushing touchdown!)
Willie Snead: 4/47/0
Travaris Cadet: 4/27/0

As you can see, there’s plenty of yards here! Obviously, I wouldn’t expect Brees to throw for 465 yards again, but the upside is there against Carolina. Cooks has massive upside and is a great GPP option, but he does tend to disappear at times. Thomas has become the most reliable target for Brees and is playable in all formats. Snead is my least favorite option, as his snap count has been hovering below 60% in recent weeks. Fleener is playable, but I do like some other tight ends better this week.

The Takeaway: New Orleans should thrive in the passing game against a poor Carolina secondary that Drew Brees has already shredded them once this season. I will be avoiding an unpredictable running game in this one, but a Brees/Cooks or Brees/Thomas stack provides you some nice GPP upside in your Thursday lock contests. Brees, Cooks, and Thomas are all playable on their own in any format.

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: Let’s not forget the Carolina side of this game. The first meeting was a 41-38 shootout, and this game went back and forth the whole way. Cam Newton threw for two touchdowns and ran in another in that game, and he has been very much pedestrian of late. This matchup is much friendlier than some of the recent games, though, and it is a perfect recipe for Newton to get back on track. New Orleans is allowing a league-worst 293 passing yards per game. If Cam can’t get it going this week, it’s definitely time to be concerned.

Running Backs: Jonathan Stewart is pretty much impossible to play as long as Newton is healthy. His contributions in the passing game are minimal, and his touchdown chances often get vultured by Newton (as they did last week). Stewart is far too expensive for me at $7,000 on FanDuel and $5,900 on DraftKings, even in a favorable matchup against the Saints. Don’t expect two touchdowns like he got in the first meeting.

Pass Catchers: The Panthers are sort of like the Broncos in that they have two guys that hog up a large percentage of the targets in Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. They combined for 20 targets last week against the Chiefs, and they should thrive against the weak New Orleans defense. The touchdowns went to other guys in the first meeting, but don’t count on Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson stealing those scores again. Olsen and Benjamin caught 14 of 21 targets in that game, and they are high-end options at their respective positions this week.

The Takeaway: My attention lies with the passing game on this side of the ball, too. Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, and Greg Olsen are fine targets in what profiles as one of the highest scoring games of the week. I will avoid Jonathan Stewart at a far too inflated price point given his lack of touchdown potential and limited pass catching prowess.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers						Cleveland Browns
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7.5	49	28.25				7.5	49	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.8	15	4	25		Offense	17.5	30	25	21
Opp. Defense	30.1	31	24	31		Opp. Defense	22.9	14	25	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	30	30	29	31		Pittsburgh Steelers	12	31	5	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	104	69	7	831		Pryor	92	51	4	627
Heyward-Bey	15	5	2	68		Coleman	25	13	2	231
Coates	42	20	2	425		Hawkins	41	24	3	237
Green	4	3	0	30		Barnidge	54	37	0	434

Notable injuries and suspensions: Markus Wheaton (PIT WR) – Out (Shoulder)

PIT Matchup Rating: 9.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.0

SATURDAY UPDATE – The weather looks like it might be a major factor here, with possible snow and up to 40 MPH winds. Downgrade Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown from what you see below. Upgrade Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger has a super-human healing element to him, and he is definitely back and ready to rock in the second half of the season. He is coming off a massive 408 yard, three touchdown performance against a good Dallas squad, and he had what would have been a game winning touchdown pass wiped away when Dallas won the game in the final seconds. The Browns have an abysmal defense at pretty much every level, and they rank second to last in DVOA against the pass. Roethlisberger is a top three option at the quarterback position this week, and the only hesitation is his high price tag and the possible blowout risk in this game. The Steelers are projected to score 28 points in this one, and Roethlisberger is a safe option in any format.

Running Backs: After weeks of gaining yards but failing to find the end zone, Le’Veon Bell finally ended the drought with a pair of touchdowns last week, and he has a safe floor thanks to his unquestioned lead back role and ability to perform in the passing game. He had nine catches on ten targets against the Cowboys. Anytime to take a clear-cut lead back, add in that type of passing game volume, and add Bell’s talent on top of it, you have a fantastic fantasy asset. Now, let’s throw a matchup against the Browns on top of that. The Steelers haven’t had many clock burning opportunities this year, but they should finally get that by the second half of this game. That should give Bell his biggest workload of the year to date.

Pass Catchers: Sammie Coates has always had issues catching the ball, and a hand injury has effectively de-railed his season. Eli Rogers is back from injury, and he played on 84% of the offensive snaps in Week 10. He doesn’t have massive upside, but he should continue to see plenty of targets, he did catch a touchdown last week, and his price tags remains very cheap on virtually every site. He is definitely in play as a value option against the Browns, especially since they will roll their best coverage toward Antonio Brown. Speaking of Brown, he’s an obvious top play at receiver in this matchup, with the possible blowout risk being the only issue. Jesse James and the newly activated Ladarius Green will now split snaps at tight end, so there’s not a lot to get excited about here.

The Takeaway: Like most teams, Pittsburgh should not struggle to move the ball against the Browns. If the Steelers can finally get a comfortable lead in a game, we should see Le’Veon Bell get a massive workload in this one. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are both fine plays in the passing game, while Eli Rogers is the best value play on the squad. There’s nothing to shy away from in a date with the winless Browns.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: I was traveling last Thursday, so I got a chance to listen to much of the Browns/Ravens Thursday night game on the radio. They randomly brought Kevin Hogan in for a play in the first quarter. Then, even though he hadn’t really made a major mistake, they benched Cody Kessler for Josh McCown in the second half. McCown then proceeded to throw two interceptions and lose a fumble in the second half. The comment I remember from the radio color commentator is: “This is why you’re 0-9.” Yep, I couldn’t have said it better myself. This is a sneaky good matchup against a bad Pittsburgh defense, but I can’t trust the Browns with their personnel decisions at quarterback right now. Hue Jackson is now saying that Kessler is his quarterback. Sure. Move along.

Running Backs: The Cleveland running game was solid in the first few weeks of the season, but it has been an absolute mess since then. They now rank among the ten worst teams in rush yards per game, and we still have a time share in the backfield with Isaiah Crowell getting around 60% of the snaps and Duke Johnson soaking up the rest. Even in a decent matchup, it’s hard to trust these guys. If Cleveland stays close, Crowell could have a good day. If Cleveland falls behind, Johnson could do some work in the passing game. Both guys are relegated to GPP-only options given the uncertainty.

Pass Catchers: If you can feel comfortable about rostering a Cleveland player this week, it’s probably here. Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman are exceptional athletes, and they should find room for a big play or two against Pittsburgh’s leaky defense. They get a downgrade with Kessler at quarterback, as he has shown a reluctance to stretch the field. If choosing between the two, I will opt for Pryor. Coleman is more deep ball reliant than Pryor is. Obviously, neither guy is a must play option. Gary Barnidge is having a rough season and is off the tight end radar right now.

The Takeaway: This isn’t a bad matchup, as the Steelers don’t have a good defense this year, but Cleveland is in shambles right now. Obviously, that is the case with any team which has lost the first ten games of the season. Despite a favorable matchup, the Browns are barely expected to crack 20 points in this one. We can’t trust the QB or RB positions. If opting for one Cleveland player, I would take a look at Terrelle Pryor, though he isn’t super appealing with Kessler likely to start at quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Baltimore Ravens						Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	44.5	18.75				-7	44.5	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.2	24	17	28		Offense	28.7	4	19	1
Opp. Defense	18.9	8	21	3		Opp. Defense	17.8	3	5	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	16	6	20	24		Baltimore Ravens	9	2	21	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	72	43	4	673		Bryant	50	22	3	398
Smith	54	36	2	417		Williams	35	25	1	360
Aiken	29	16	0	171		Beasley	61	48	4	532
Pitta	66	46	0	375		Witten	63	44	2	483

Notable injuries and suspensions: Dez Bryant (DAL WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Back)

BAL Matchup Rating: 4.5
DAL Matchup Rating: 5.5

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: Joe Flacco has nine touchdown passes and nine interceptions in nine games. This is a tough road game against what could be the best team in the league, and Dallas loves to control the clock. There are more than 20 better quarterback options than Flacco for your DFS contests this week.

Running Backs: The Ravens have slipped to 28th in the league in rushing yards per game, and they simply haven’t been able to get it going on the ground. Terrance West managed just 3.1 yards per carry last week against the feeble Browns, and that was on the heels of two straight games where he barely managed one yard per carry. The Ravens have been hit hard by injuries on the offensive line, too. This is a spot to avoid right now.

Pass Catchers: If forced to roster one player on the Ravens, you would likely want to choose someone from this unit. With that being said, you don’t have to choose anyone here, either. Breshad Perriman and Kamar Aiken tend to play around 50-60% of the offensive snaps, with Steve Smith and Mike Wallace getting a larger piece of the pie. Wallace is a big play threat that could be considered in GPPs, while Smith would be the safer cash game target against Dallas’ middle of the pack pass defense. Dennis Pitta sees plenty of volume, but he garnered just 26 yards on six catches a week ago.

The Takeaway: In all likelihood, I won’t be playing anyone from the Ravens this weekend. They are on the road playing against a good team, and the Ravens have not exactly been very fantasy friendly even in favorable matchups this season.

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback: The Dak Attack rolls on. This Dallas offensive line might be one of the best units I have ever seen, and it is helping the entire offense dominate opponents. Dak Prescott has 14 passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns, and just two interceptions this season. This is an interesting matchup against the Ravens, and I think Dallas will have to throw it more in this game (more on that in a moment). He threw for 319 yards and two scores last week, and he is capable of a similar line in this one. His price is still in the mid range at $6,000 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel, which puts him in play as a QB option this week.

Running Backs: Look, Ezekiel Elliott has been fantastic. He’s picking up MVP buzz now, and it’s time to drop the talk of him being a bad draft pick at the top of the first round. He fit a need, and he is taking advantage of that great offensive line. The problem here is that his price tag is now extremely high in DFS, and he has to face a Baltimore defense that is first in the league in DVOA against the run. They also allow the fewest rushing yards per game at just 71.3. Zeke obviously has the upside to best any defense, but I won’t be paying up for him this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Dez Bryant is now healthy, and he is quietly developing a nice rapport with his new quarterback. Two of his last three games have been very good, and the only poor game was a game against the winless Browns where Dallas didn’t have to throw the ball at all in the second half. He has seen a total of 23 targets in the other two, scoring a touchdown in each. Baltimore can be exploited via top shelf wide receivers, and Bryant is the man for the job in this matchup. I will avoid the slot receiver in Cole Beasley and the tight end in Jason Witten, as Baltimore is relatively solid over the middle with Eric Weddle roaming around at safety.

The Takeaway: This will be a fun game to watch on Sunday. Can Ezekiel Elliott keep it up against the league’s best rush defense? I will pass on him at his high prices this week, but Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant are reasonable plays if you want some Dallas exposure in your lineups.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars						Detroit Lions
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	47	20.25				-6.5	47	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	27	15	26		Offense	22.8	17	18	27
Opp. Defense	22.9	14	18	18		Opp. Defense	26.6	25	4	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	31	9	17	30		Jacksonville Jaguars	13	18	8	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Robinson	94	48	5	549		Tate	74	49	2	513
Hurns	67	33	2	456		Jones	64	37	4	661
Lee	55	38	0	492		Boldin	48	35	5	286
Thomas	46	27	4	269		Ebron	43	32	1	381

Notable injuries and suspensions: Theo Riddick (DET RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle)

JAX Matchup Rating: 6.5
DET Matchup Rating: 7.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback: Blake Bortles has his problems, and of course they are well documented. His throwing motion is strange. He turns the ball over too much. He makes careless mistakes. Yet, somehow, he manages to put up decent fantasy games more often than those negative indicators would suggest. Why is this? Well, he tends to be a garbage time hero, and the Jaguars have little to no running game. That helps. Bortles has thrown at least two touchdown passes in three straight games, and this game has some shootout potential in Detroit. The Lions rank dead last in DVOA against the pass, so I can see the merit in using Bortles as a cheap quarterback this week. He is super cheap, and the Jaguars will likely have to throw to keep pace in this one.

Running Backs: I’m not going here. Chris Ivory disappointed everyone last week after having a breakout game the week before, and this is still a virtual 50/50 time share. Ivory played 37 snaps while T.J. Yeldon logged 41 against the Texans. There are better options.

Pass Catchers: Allen Robinson is quietly putting up some better games these days, and he has seen at least 12 targets in each of the last three games. His yardage has gone up for a season-low nine yards in Week 7 to 70, 76, and 107 over the last three games. He has touchdown catches in each of the last two. He is a fine wide receiver target, but he is much more appealing on FanDuel. It is rare to see a player that is cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings because FanDuel has a higher salary cap, but that is the case with Robinson this week. It would be nice if Julius Thomas was 100% healthy and playing more snaps, but he found the end zone last week and has a nice matchup against a Detroit defense that struggles against pass catching tight ends.

The Takeaway: The Jacksonville passing game has a great matchup here, and their lack of a run game will force them to the air, as usual. Blake Bortles is in play as a value quarterback option, while Allen Robinson is an elite WR play on FanDuel. You can consider Julius Thomas as a cheap tight end option, though he doesn’t appear fully healthy these days.

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Please excuse the rant here, but why is Matthew Stafford still getting MVP buzz? I have seen that on two major network platforms so far this month, and it just makes no sense. Is he having a fine season? Yes. Is he having an MVP season? No. He hasn’t thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since Week 3. That is not a typo. He has limited his turnovers this year and has a fine 18/5 TD/INT ratio, but he hasn’t been putting up MVP-caliber numbers. In a word, he is being overrated right now. His DFS price is squarely in the mid-tier of quarterbacks, and that’s not where you would expect to find an MVP. Jacksonville is establishing a very good pass defense, and they held Houston under 100 yards passing last week. Granted, Matthew Stafford is better than Brock Osweiler, but he’s nowhere near a must play in this matchup. If you want to take him, I understand it based on his play this year and a favorable price, but the run game is the best place to attack the Jaguars.

Running Backs: The Lions are coming off a bye week after their big win over the Vikings two weeks ago. In that game, Theo Riddick logged 46 snaps while Dwayne Washington garnered 21. I would expect that 2-to-1 split to continue moving forward, and Riddick is also a very viable pass catching running back. The Jaguars rank just 28th in DVOA against the run, and they are allowing 124 yards per game on the ground. Riddick is still very affordable on both the major sites, and he is a fine mid-range target in a favorable matchup.

Pass Catchers: The NFL is a fickle beast. In the first few weeks of the season, it looked like Marvin Jones was going to be a top ten receiver in the league this year. Since then, he has been on a steady decline that ended in rock bottom against the Vikings, a game where he caught just one pass for five yards. On the contrary, Golden Tate looked terrible at the start of the year. In the last four games, he has 32 catches on 43 targets. I would expect these results to normalize over time, but I will likely avoid both against a good Jacksonville secondary. Eric Ebron has also returned to steal some targets, and he had a 7-for-92 line against the Vikings. He has played on 80% of the snaps over two games since his return, and he is a sneaky tight end option this week given his still cheap price tag.

The Takeaway: Matthew Stafford is getting far too much buzz right now, and this is a tougher matchup than it might seem on the surface. I will avoid the Detroit pass game for the most part, outside of a contrarian shot on Eric Ebron. Theo Riddick is in the best spot here, as he is comfortably out snapping the other running backs in Detroit, and he can make contributions in the passing game as well. This is also a favorable matchup for the Detroit running game to lead the way.

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