NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Page Three
| Denver Broncos | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 43 | 19 | -5 | 43 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.4 | 24 | 18 | 14 | Offense | 21.8 | 16 | 16 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 21 | 25 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 25.9 | 27 | 3 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Oakland Raiders | 23 | 27 | 18 | 26 | Denver Broncos | 16 | 7 | 4 | 31 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 88 | 53 | 3 | 633 | Cooper | 84 | 41 | 4 | 490 | |
| Sanders | 66 | 34 | 2 | 448 | Crabtree | 66 | 42 | 6 | 502 | |
| Latimer | 17 | 10 | 0 | 137 | Roberts | 36 | 22 | 1 | 236 | |
| Green | 16 | 11 | 1 | 133 | Cook | 60 | 41 | 1 | 535 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
DEN Matchup Rating: 4.0
OAK Matchup Rating: 5.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: There are two different ways to analyze this spot for Paxton Lynch. On one hand, he has about as good of a matchup as one could ask for: a date with the Raiders’ woeful pass defense. Oakland has given up 17 passing touchdowns and has nary an interception on the season. That’s right, we are in Week 12 and Oakland has zero interceptions. Every other NFL team has at least three. In addition, Lynch is a capable running quarterback that can add some upside to his legs. When you combine that with his super cheap DFS price tag, there is bound to be some appeal here. However, let’s not forget that Lynch was awful in game action last year and got outplayed by Trevor Siemian in training camp and during the preseason. That’s not a good sign. The floor is super low, but with the matchup and running upside, Lynch can be considered as a massive risk/reward play in tournament formats.
Running Backs: Devontae Booker seems to slowly be taking over the Denver backfield, as he played on almost 60% of the snaps heading into the bye week, while Jamaal Charles barely saw the field. C.J. Anderson appears to be the backup at this point. The problem is that the production really hasn’t been there for anyone from this group. Booker rushed for just 3.1 yards per carry on 14 totes against the Bengals, and Denver ranks near the bottom of the NFL with just five team rushing touchdowns on the season. If you need a play from this group, Booker is a reasonable value selection, but the ceiling isn’t all that high.
Pass Catchers: This entire group will get a downgrade with Lynch at quarterback, as Lynch is not going to be a very efficient passer. The matchup does mitigate that risk in this game to a degree, which does put Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas on the DFS radar. Both guys saw a similar amount of targets in Lynch’s three games last year, with Sanders holding a slight edge. I generally side with the size and upside of Thomas, but both players are very much in play. If you need a mid-range receiving option, give Thomas or Sanders a look, and they can be paired with Lynch if you are using him as your GPP quarterback.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Sanders is questionable with his nagging ankle injury, so upgrade Thomas a bit here.
The Takeaway: The main appeal for the Broncos is that all of their players are affordable, and they draw a good matchup against an awful Raiders defense. The production will likely be hit or miss with another quarterback change, but some players are going to make value simply because the Broncos are bound to move the ball. Even though I don’t expect a 35 point outburst from the Broncos, I will have some exposure to the various skill players in this one.
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Derek Carr is a talented quarterback, and there is a buy low opportunity here with his price tag still depressed a bit across the DFS landscape. While we generally don’t love targeting quarterback against the Broncos, they aren’t the same shut down pass defense that they used to be. Carr’s ability to make plays and spread the ball around should be beneficial in this one, and I wouldn’t instantly write him off as a fantasy option this week. While he doesn’t top my list, you could certainly do worse at the position. Oakland has a reasonably high team total in this game, and they are unlikely to do much damage on the ground. All this adds up to making Carr a reasonable mid-range option at the QB position.
Running Backs: Oakland ranks 27th in the league in rushing yards, while the Denver defense is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and 86 rushing yards per game. The math is easy on this one. Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the stable of running backs are not fantasy options in this game.
Pass Catchers: Denver has still done a solid job against outside receivers this year, even though the pass defense doesn’t have the same aura that it did a year ago. That takes the shine off guys like Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper in Week 12. The Broncos have been weaker against tight ends and allowed a touchdown to Tyler Kroft a week ago, and Jared Cook has shown some signs of life of late. If you are looking to take an Oakland pass catcher in this game, Cook is the guy you want to target first.
The Takeaway: This isn’t a great spot, but the Denver defense is not the same shut down unit that we have seen in prior years. Derek Carr is discounted and a reasonable mid-range quarterback option, while Jared Cook is firmly in play as a solid mid-tier tight end play. The outside receivers carry some risk against Denver’s corners, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Cooper or Crabtree have a big game.
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | 38 | 21.5 | 5 | 38 | 16.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.1 | 9 | 28 | 1 | Offense | 17.2 | 27 | 3 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.4 | 25 | 23 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 14.1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 27 | 14 | 26 | 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 16 | 1 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Lee | 78 | 43 | 2 | 538 | Fitzgerald | 98 | 69 | 4 | 768 | |
| Hurns | 51 | 36 | 2 | 446 | Brown | 47 | 19 | 2 | 271 | |
| Westbrook | 6 | 3 | 0 | 35 | Brown | 51 | 24 | 2 | 349 | |
| Lewis | 33 | 14 | 5 | 209 | Gresham | 34 | 23 | 2 | 237 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Ankle) / John Brown (ARI WR) – Out (Toe)
JAX Matchup Rating: 6.0
ARI Matchup Rating: 3.0
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Jacksonville is enjoying a fine season, but they have relied on their defense and their running game for the majority of their results. This team reminds me of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, a team that went on to win the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. While you can argue about whether or not defense can win a championship in today’s day and age, the point is that Jacksonville is not relying on an explosive offense to win games. Bortles still has just one multi-touchdown performance all year, and he is not a fantasy option on a full slate. Even in the afternoon only games, it’s really hard to make any sort of decent case for Bortles in any format. The risk outweighs the reward here.
Running Backs: Leonard Fournette is clearly still not 100% healthy, but he did manage to carry the ball 28 times for 111 yards in last week’s win over the Browns. The Jaguars are taking it easy on him in practice in an attempt to limit his reps, and he will cede passing down work to T.J. Yeldon. Those two things are a concern for me, and that’s enough to scare me off Fournette in DFS formats. You could make a case for Fournette in GPP contests, as the upside is certainly there — especially if Jacksonville is able to get out to a lead. This is a neutral to below average matchup, but so was the one last week against the Browns. To put it simply, Fournette has upside and the workload should be there, but there are some red flags.
Pass Catchers: The struggles of Blake Bortles have carried over to the receiving corps, as no Jacksonville wide receiver has more than two touchdowns or 550 receiving yards on the season. Allen Hurns seems likely to miss another game, which will open up additional snaps for Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole. Westbrook will eventually have the most upside of the bunch, but he is still getting eased back into action. He played on less than half the snaps last week in his return. I will be avoiding this whole group in Week 12.
The Takeaway: This game has the lowest total of the week at just 37 1/2 points. There’s not a whole lot to get excited about on either side, though you could consider Leonard Fournette for his upside and low ownership in GPPs.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Blaine Gabbert took over the starting gig and had a solid game last week against a declining Texans defense. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Gabbert is not a fantasy option against the league’s best secondary, though the matchup isn’t quite as daunting with Jalen Ramsey out for the Jaguars.
Running Backs: There is certainly volume-based appeal with Adrian Peterson in this matchup, and the Jaguars are theoretically more vulnerable against the run than the pass. However, the Cardinals carry a meager 16 point implied team total in this game, so I wouldn’t get too excited. It is also worth noting that, over the last two games, Peterson has a total of 35 carries for 55 yards. That’s about as bad as it gets. I expect him to be a little better this week, but there are plenty of reasons to steer clear.
Pass Catchers: I generally avoid all pass catchers against the Jaguars, and that is not going to change despite the absence of Ramsey. With an inconsistent quarterback and a bad matchup, there’s no reason to force in an Arizona wide receiver in this game.
The Takeaway: There isn’t anybody that I love on this Arizona team, as they carry one of the lowest team totals on the board. Adrian Peterson should see plenty of volume, but he has really fallen off over the past few games. Jacksonville’s defense, as always, is a high end option in all formats.
| Green Bay Packers | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 41.5 | 13.75 | -14 | 41.5 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 14 | 20 | 19 | Offense | 20.8 | 19 | 11 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.5 | 2 | 5 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 18 | 18 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | Green Bay Packers | 12 | 23 | 25 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Nelson | 59 | 35 | 6 | 382 | Brown | 114 | 70 | 6 | 1,026 | |
| Adams | 82 | 50 | 6 | 620 | Smith-Schuster | 51 | 33 | 5 | 568 | |
| Cobb | 53 | 39 | 1 | 405 | Bryant | 45 | 23 | 1 | 306 | |
| Kendricks | 18 | 10 | 1 | 140 | James | 38 | 25 | 3 | 214 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ty Montgomery (GB RB) – Doubtful (Ribs) / Aaron Jones (GB RB) – Out (Knee) / JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR) – Out (Hamstring)
GB Matchup Rating: 3.0
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.0
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: We can make this pretty simple. There is enough of a sample size out there right now to show that Brett Hundley is simply overmatched at the NFL level. He committed four turnovers last week against the Ravens as the Packers got shut out, and this week’s matchup doesn’t get any better. The Packers will be on the road in a night game against a good Pittsburgh defense. Hundley is not a viable option in any format.
Running Backs: It appears as though Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones will both be sidelined again this week, which should open the door for Jamaal Williams to make another start. The unfortunate news is that this is a difficult matchup, and Williams is not involved in the passing game at all. There’s little upside here, though you could consider Williams as an option on the short prime time slate. Just remember that the ceiling isn’t all that high.
Pass Catchers: The potential for the Green Bay pass catching corps has simply been sapped with Hundley under center. The Packers have not been moving the ball through the air at all. Even though guys like Nelson and Adams are supreme talents, they haven’t been given an opportunity to make plays. I’ll pass.
The Takeaway: There is very little appeal in this entire Green Bay offense. They draw a tough matchup on the road against a good defense, and their implied team total is just under 15 points. The Steelers are a strong defensive selection in all formats.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: It seems strange to say this given his numbers this year, but if you are playing the Sunday/Monday prime time only slate, Ben Roethlisberger is without question the top quarterback on the slate. The reason for that is because the other quarterback options are Brett Hundley, Tom Savage, and Joe Flacco. Roethlisberger gets the nod almost by default, despite the fact that he is not having his best season in 2017. Green Bay ranks 23rd in the league in DVOA against the pass, and Pittsburgh should be able to control the clock in this game. Roethlisberger is coming off his best game of the year last Thursday against Tennessee, and perhaps that will get the momentum rolling. I likely won’t target him on full week slates, but I will go with 100% exposure to Roethlisberger in the prime time offerings.
Running Backs: The Steelers have paid lip service to reducing the workload for Le’Veon Bell, but I will believe it when I see it. Until we see them prove otherwise, Bell is locked in as a volume-based RB #1 in all formats. He is involved in all aspects of Pittsburgh’s offense, and I wouldn’t be concerned about his down game a week ago. He had a touchdown overturned via replay, and he ceded the big game to Antonio Brown against the Titans. Bell still has that kind of upside of his own, so don’t be afraid to play him. On the Sunday/Monday prime time slate, there are very few players to spend up on, making Bell a logical target in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown owes me a steak dinner or something. His big performance came one week too late for my liking, as I was all over him two weeks ago against the Colts. He was almost unstoppable against the Titans last Thursday, reminding us of the upside that he carries on a weekly basis. With JuJu Smith-Schuster injured and unlikely to play in this game, Brown should see a ton of looks once again. If JuJu is sidelined, we could finally see a Martavis Bryant sighting once again. There aren’t a lot of attractive value wide receivers on this week’s slate, so Bryant is squarely in play if this scenario holds. Keep an eye on the news as we get closer to Sunday.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Smith-Schuster is out. It’s officially Martavis Bryant week!
The Takeaway: Pittsburgh should be able to control the time of possession in this game, and their skill players are very much in play as DFS options. Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown are the top plays at their respective positions on a weak prime time slate, while Martavis Bryant could also be in play if JuJu Smith-Schuster is out. Expect some points here.
| Houston Texans | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 15.5 | -7 | 38 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.2 | 7 | 17 | 6 | Offense | 21.1 | 18 | 32 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.1 | 3 | 2 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 26.2 | 30 | 28 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 13 | 2 | 20 | Houston Texans | 32 | 1 | 29 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 115 | 62 | 9 | 879 | Maclin | 47 | 31 | 3 | 344 | |
| Fuller | 33 | 17 | 7 | 326 | Wallace | 39 | 24 | 3 | 323 | |
| Ellington | 46 | 25 | 2 | 294 | Moore | 20 | 6 | 1 | 96 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 12 | 8 | 0 | 74 | Watson | 50 | 39 | 2 | 294 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will Fuller (HOU WR) – Out (Ribs)
HOU Matchup Rating: 2.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 4.5
Houston Texans
Quarterback: This is one ugly football game, but it somehow has big AFC playoff implications. Prior to this week, the Ravens would have checked in as the #6 seed in the AFC… with a 5-5 record. The Texans sit at 4-6, so both teams are still alive for the right to get blasted in a playoff game. Tom Savage has not cleared 230 passing yards in any of his starts, and he has just four touchdowns to three interceptions so far. In a road matchup against a Ravens defense that is allowing just 192 passing yards per game and owns a league-leading 16 interceptions, Savage is not a fantasy option in any format — and that includes the two game prime time slates. Find another option.
Running Backs: The Ravens have been more vulnerable on the ground this year, allowing over 120 yards per game to opposing rushing attacks. However, a lot of that production came when run-stuffing defensive tackle Brandon Williams was injured. They are a much improved group now, and they are not a team that I want to mess with that much. Lamar Miller continues to dominate the snaps, but D’Onta Foreman opened some eyes with 10 carries for 65 yards and two scores last week. This might be a fairly even snap split sooner rather than later. With this being a difficult matchup in which Houston could very well fall behind, I am not that interested in either guy this week. Let’s give it another game and see how the snap distribution shakes out here.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins is obviously super talented, and he is capable of rising above any matchup, as he did last week with 76 receiving yards and a score against Patrick Peterson. The price tag is a little high for my liking, especially given the poor quarterback play and difficult opponent, but Hopkins is always a potential difference-maker in a GPP setting. I am not going to actively talk you off him, and he does benefit if Houston falls behind and is forced to the air. Bruce Ellington remains a viable value play if Will Fuller is out again, as he posted a solid 6/63 line a week ago against the Cardinals. I would not play Hopkins and Ellington on the same lineup, though, as there likely won’t be enough production to go around for both of them against a good pass defense.
The Takeaway: The Texans are one of the least appealing teams to target this week. and they carry a 15 point team total that matches one of the lowest figures of the week. Hopkins and Ellington are the only players that are DFS options for me, and that assumes that Will Fuller is out again. The Baltimore defense is an appealing target on all slates.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Well, this could be one of the worst quarterback matchups we have seen all season, and it occurs in a nationally televised Monday night game! Woo hoo! Joe Flacco has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year and does not have a single 300+ yard passing game. The logic is very simple here, so let’s break it down:
A) If you are playing a full week slate, avoid both quarterbacks in this game.
B) If you are playing the Sunday/Monday night slate, avoid both quarterbacks in this game and take someone from Sunday night.
C) If you are playing the Monday/Thursday night slate, avoid both quarterbacks in this game and take someone from Thursday night.
Running Backs: The Baltimore backfield has been a giant mess all season long, and the return of Danny Woodhead is only going to clutter that up even more. However, it is worth noting that Alex Collins logged 20 carries last week against the Packers. The bad news is that he only turned those carries into 49 yards rushing. Game flow played a large part in that increased role, but it is possible that the Ravens are able to play with a lead again this week. Collins played on 64% of the offensive snaps and appears to be the favorite for early down work going forward. If you are choosing between the three bodies, Collins is the preferred fantasy play, but he is by no means a safe option.
Pass Catchers: Houston’s pass defense has deteriorated since they lost their top pass rusher in J.J. Watt, and they allowed Blaine Gabbert to rack up 257 yards and three touchdowns last week. The issue is that Joe Flacco has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year. They have only had one 100+ yard receiving game from any individual pass catcher this year (Mike Wallace against the Raiders). You can certainly target Maclin or Wallace on the shorter slates simply because the matchup is favorable and there aren’t many options, but I would shy away from this Baltimore pass catching group on the full week slates.
The Takeaway: There’s not a lot to like here in what could be the ugliest game of the week. You might be forced into taking a player from the Ravens on the shorter prime time slates, but it’s not pretty. Alex Collins and the two starting wide receivers in Wallace and Maclin are the strongest plays of the group. Keep in mind, though, that this is most definitely not a whole-hearted recommendation.
It is also worth noting that, if you are playing the Sunday/Monday night prime time slate, good luck finding a tight end you like. None of the four teams utilize the tight end a ton, and all the options have limited upside.
