NFL Grind Down: Week 8
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Miami Dolphins | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 37.5 | 17.25 | -3 | 37.5 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.3 | 31 | 29 | 29 | Offense | 18.6 | 23 | 32 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.7 | 11 | 4 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 16.8 | 3 | 18 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 27 | 2 | 24 | Miami Dolphins | 15 | 9 | 12 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 68 | 45 | 3 | 365 | Maclin | 28 | 16 | 2 | 159 | |
| Parker | 28 | 19 | 1 | 236 | Perriman | 18 | 4 | 0 | 26 | |
| Stills | 33 | 20 | 4 | 248 | Moore | 16 | 5 | 1 | 80 | |
| Thomas | 25 | 15 | 0 | 166 | Watson | 35 | 29 | 1 | 214 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Cutler (MIA QB) – Out (Ribs) / DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / Terrance West (BAL RB) – Out (Calf) / Ben Watson (BAL TE) – Questionable (Knee) / Michael Campanaro (BAL WR) – Doubtful (Shoulder) / Breshad Perriman (BAL WR) – Questionable (Concussion) / Mike Wallace (BAL WR) – Questionable (Concussion) / Jeremy Maclin (BAL WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
MIA Matchup Rating: 3.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 4.0
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: If you want an ugly Thursday night game, here you have it. This sets up as a classic week to play some Thursday lock DFS contests and fade the game entirely, because there’s almost nothing to love on either side. Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler last week and played well in helping the Dolphins to a come from behind victory. In a “sad but true” moment, Moore actually provides more DFS potential than Cutler at this point. That half featured better quarterback play than Cutler has shown all year. This is a tough matchup against a solid Baltimore pass defense on a short week, though. I wouldn’t play him in anything other than a Monday/Thursday contest where you still need a quarterback (and where you should have played either Carson Wentz or Kirk Cousins).
Running Backs: Jay Ajayi has been very underwhelming this year, and he somehow hasn’t scored a touchdown yet despite continuing to see heavy volume. I don’t love the matchup with Brandon Williams back in the mix for Baltimore, but Ajayi is fine as a volume-based running back option. Although the production hasn’t been pretty, he has logged a ton of touches over the last three weeks with 20+ carries in every game, and the Dolphins have won all three games. As such, don’t expect them to back off Ajayi in this one. However, his injury history and the short week gives me some pause. Ajayi is one of the safer offensive plays from this game, but that isn’t saying much.
Pass Catchers: A lot of this hinges on the status of DeVante Parker, so keep an eye on the reports heading up to game time on Thursday night. As of right now, it sounds like he may come down to a game time decision. Assuming he is active and starts, it feels a little more risky to take a shot on Jarvis Landry or Kenny Stills, although I am surprised those two are not more expensive after their big performances a week ago. If Parker is out again, Landry and Stills carry more appeal, with Landry being the safer option and Stills being the higher upside option. I am not going to trust Julius Thomas at this point, though he can’t be worse with Moore at quarterback than he was with Cutler.
THURSDAY UPDATE – We have no clarity on Parker yet. This is going to come down to a game time call.
The Takeaway: This game is tied for the lowest Vegas total of the week at just 37 1/2 points. Don’t go crazy with exposure to this game, and this could be a spot for the Baltimore defense to wake up and post a solid score, especially with Moore starting on a short week. Jay Ajayi carries some interest as a volume-based RB option in cash games, but he has yet to score a touchdown all season. Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills are receiving options if DeVante Parker can’t play again, while all three are risky if Parker is active.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Don’t play Joe Flacco.
Running Backs: The Baltimore backfield remains a time share between Alex Collins and Javorius Allen. Collins seems to be the better option for early down work, while Allen will be more involved if the Ravens happen to fall behind. Both are risk/reward GPP options, but I prefer Collins in a vacuum right now. He has been running hard over the last few games and is a better downfield, power back. With how awful the passing game has been, Baltimore would be smart if they attempted to run the ball 30 times in this game. Unfortunately, that’s how bad it has been for Joe Flacco and company.
Pass Catchers: Breshad Perriman has a concussion. Mike Wallace has a concussion. Jeremy Maclin didn’t play last week. All three players are lining up to be some form of questionable for this game, though the Tuesday practice reports were encouraging. In any case, it’s hard to trust any receiver with Flacco throwing ducks out there. There’s almost no point in breaking this down any further until we see who is active. If only one of the three injured receivers plays, that player could be used as a reasonably priced option. If all of them play, I have virtually no interest in this group. This passing game has been one of the worst units in the NFL.
THURSDAY UPDATE – The whole gang is listed as questionable. Perriman, Wallace, and Maclin are all tagged with that designation. Even Ben Watson might sit out. Oh, and Michael Campanaro is now doubtful with an injury of his own. Good luck, Ravens.
The Takeaway: The Ravens are very difficult to watch, and it surprises me that they are favored in this game despite being at home. That’s how bad Joe Flacco and company have been. I could see using the Dolphins defense in this spot even though they aren’t a great unit, but my favorite Baltimore play likely resides in the backfield with Alex Collins. I think he could approach 20 carries in this game, especially if Baltimore finds a way to build a lead. Outside of that, there isn’t really anything to love — pending the status of all the injured wide receivers.
| Minnesota Vikings | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | 37.5 | 23.5 | 9.5 | 37.5 | 14 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.9 | 18 | 15 | 8 | Offense | 14.7 | 32 | 22 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.2 | 26 | 16 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 17.2 | 5 | 15 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 23 | 6 | 9 | 29 | Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 2 | 18 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 36 | 23 | 4 | 395 | Louis | 39 | 21 | 0 | 250 | |
| Thielen | 65 | 43 | 0 | 530 | Britt | 28 | 10 | 1 | 128 | |
| Treadwell | 17 | 11 | 0 | 121 | Higgins | 30 | 13 | 0 | 136 | |
| Rudolph | 40 | 26 | 2 | 244 | DeValve | 29 | 16 | 1 | 194 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Questionable (Groin)
MIN Matchup Rating: 7.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 1.5
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: I worry about a little bit of a letdown factor for the Vikings this week, as they are traveling all the way to London to play an early start against the lowly Browns. Case Keenum really struggled last week against the Ravens, but this matchup lends itself to more fantasy potential. This could be his last start, as all signs are pointing to a Teddy Bridgewater return after this contest. I don’t see a ton of upside in Keenum, but he is a reasonably safe play in full week formats if you are looking for a value quarterback option.
Running Backs: Well, this is officially a problem now. After it looked like Jerick McKinnon was slowly taking control of this backfield, Latavius Murray woke up and had a great game against the Ravens with 113 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. He logged more touches than McKinnon and put up the better results. I still have more faith in McKinnon long-term, but this is definitely a time share at the moment.The coaching staff appears poised to ride the hot hand. There could be room for both to play well against the Browns, but both carry some risk. The Browns have also been surprisingly stout against the run this year, which gives me additional pause with Murray. I still prefer McKinnon, especially in full PPR formats, but it is a very close call.
Pass Catchers: A lot of this hinges upon the health of Stefon Diggs. If he is sidelined again this week, fire up the steady Adam Thielen in a great matchup. He has seen a whopping 25 targets over the last two weeks with Diggs sidelined, and the Browns have just one good defensive back in Jason McCourty, and he didn’t even play last week due to injury. Kyle Rudolph remains a touchdown-dependent tight end option, but the matchup couldn’t be any better. Cleveland has really struggled against the tight end position this year.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Diggs sounds like he is on track to play, so bump down Thielen and Rudolph a bit. Diggs is a really interesting GPP flier.
The Takeaway: Minnesota should be able to control the possession time in this game, which adds to their fantasy appeal. However, it’s an early start in London, so there is some “hangover” risk in this spot. We now have a time share at running back after Latavius Murray woke up last week, and this is a difficult matchup against a Browns defense that has been solid against the run. Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph are the top plays here, especially if Stefon Diggs remains sidelined. Thielen is getting a ton of targets, while Rudolph draws a great individual matchup, as the Browns have been woeful against tight ends.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: It doesn’t matter who starts the game. The Browns seem to provide a mid-game benching to whoever starts, anyway. Throw in a matchup against an elite Minnesota pass defense, and you are foolish if you even consider a Cleveland quarterback here.
Running Backs: The 2017 season has been a disaster for Isaiah Crowell, and game flow is never positive with Cleveland always falling behind. I suppose you could consider Duke Johnson as a PPR option under the assumption that the Browns will again be behind here, but his floor is very low, and I don’t love picking on this Vikings defense. On the plus side, Johnson is averaging more than five catches per game this season.
Pass Catchers: The quarterback spot is a revolving door, the de-facto #1 wide receiver from the preseason is on the verge of being cut, and the Browns haven’t scored 20 points in a game in over a month. I would take the Baltimore passing game over the Cleveland passing game, and that’s saying A LOT these days.
The Takeaway: Maybe you can stomach Duke Johnson in a PPR format. I’ll fade the whole team and gladly play the Minnesota defense. It is worth noting, though, that defensive scoring involves a ton of variance, and Minnesota will almost certainly be the most popular defensive choice of the week. Don’t be afraid to swerve elsewhere in GPP formats.
| Oakland Raiders | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 45 | 21.25 | -2.5 | 45 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.1 | 15 | 21 | 24 | Offense | 19.8 | 19 | 30 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 14.8 | 1 | 19 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 12 | 17 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 8 | 7 | 16 | 22 | Oakland Raiders | 16 | 20 | 10 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooper | 58 | 29 | 3 | 356 | Matthews | 16 | 12 | 1 | 172 | |
| Crabtree | 41 | 28 | 6 | 328 | Jones | 32 | 7 | 0 | 83 | |
| Roberts | 25 | 15 | 1 | 172 | Holmes | 12 | 8 | 2 | 46 | |
| Cook | 41 | 27 | 1 | 316 | O’Leary | 11 | 9 | 0 | 165 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Charles Clay (BUF TE) – Out (Knee)
OAK Matchup Rating: 5.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.5
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: If you played the full week slate in Week 7, Derek Carr put up a dominant, GPP-winning type performance in Oakland’s big victory over the Chiefs. The game was punctuated with a game-winning touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree on the last play of the game, and it was an impressive display all night long from the signal-caller. Carr threw for over 400 yards on a short week, and he appears to be fully healthy again. Health is the big question mark with him, and I hope he can stay healthy for the rest of the season. While I am a fan of Carr and think he will have some nice DFS weeks in the second half of the season, I am not going to chase the points in a road game against a good Buffalo defense. The upside is certainly there, but I like some of the other quarterbacks that are in better spots this week.
Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch has had his one game suspension upheld, so he will not play in this game. That opens up opportunity for both Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington, and they will likely split snaps here. They essentially played on the same number of snaps after Lynch got ejected against the Chiefs. A hot hand approach could also be used if one of them gets off to a good start. This will be a popular spot to look for value, but I don’t trust this group. Buffalo is allowing just 3.4 rushing yards per attempt this year and has only allowed four touchdowns on the ground. When you combine that with the time share and likely inflated ownership, it just doesn’t make sense to me.
Pass Catchers: Welcome back to life, Amari Cooper! Of course, his massive game occurred on a Thursday night which also happened to be the first Thursday of the NBA season, so fewer people were able to play him last week. If you faithfully rostered Cooper for over a month only to watch from the sidelines as he went nuts against the Chiefs, I feel your pain. The good news is that now he is back on a Sunday slate to destroy us again! The coaching staff did a good job of moving Cooper around the formation in that game, allowing him to run more routes from the slot (more than double his season average). This is a good sign in the long run, but I will generally pass on him with a difficult matchup and likely inflated ownership after the big game. I also like the way that Michael Crabtree lines up against this secondary a little better. You can certainly avoid both if you want, as neither qualifies as a must play.
The Takeaway: The Raiders are coming off a big win, but this is a difficult road game. Buffalo has shown a lot of improvement on defense this year. I like Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree in the long run, but I don’t think they fit the optimal lineup build this week. There is GPP stack potential if you want to take the risk/reward approach, but the issue is that ownership will likely be higher than it should be after the big game last week. The time share at running back makes me nervous, even though there is the potential for some value sans Marshawn Lynch, who is suspended for this game.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor was a popular value play in Week 7, and that is likely going to continue into this week. However, his price tag on FanDuel really isn’t a value compared to some of the other options on the board, so he is more of an option on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. While he doesn’t have a ton of weapons at his disposal, he can make plays with his legs, and this is a favorable matchup against a weak Raiders defense. The lack of options makes Taylor a little more risky than usual, which renders him as more of a GPP play than a cash game play at this point. I still don’t mind it given the favorable home matchup, as Oakland ranks 31st in the league in DVOA against the pass.
Running Backs: The entire Bills offense is likely going to be popular again this week, as LeSean McCoy was also a popular selection a week ago. The volume is very much secure, and McCoy is coming off his best game of the season. He rushed 23 times for 91 yards and a pair of scores against Tampa Bay, while Mike Tolbert saw only three carries on the day. McCoy’s usage in the passing game gives him a higher floor, and the ceiling plays just fine in GPP formats. It would surprise me a lot if McCoy doesn’t log 100+ total yards in this game. He’s one of the safer plays on the board, and he could be a top point per dollar scorer at running back if Buffalo is able to build a lead in this game.
Pass Catchers: There is no denying that this group of pass catchers is bad. The most reliable option has been Charles Clay, and now even he is injured. I am not buying into one big game from Deonte Thompson. Jordan Matthews surprisingly returned a week ago and tried wearing a special glove to protect his injured finger. Although the overall line wasn’t great, the good news is that Matthews played on more than 80% of the offensive snaps, and he is clearly the most talented wide receiver that this team has. In a favorable matchup against the Raiders, I expect him to bounce back with a solid performance here. He remains dirt cheap on every site, and he will likely be lower owned after burning a lot of people a week ago. In my opinion, Matthews is viable for both cash games and tournaments.
The Takeaway: This will be one of the better spots to target the Buffalo offense. Tyrod Taylor is in play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft where he remains cheap, while you could pair him with Jordan Matthews after he returned a week ago. Matthews is never safe and has let us all down before, but he is going to be the clear #1 wide receiver on this squad. LeSean McCoy is one of the safest running back options on the board and is coming off his best game of the season.
| Indianapolis Colts | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 41.5 | 15.75 | -10 | 41.5 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.0 | 27 | 26 | 21 | Offense | 16.3 | 29 | 24 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 32.5 | 30 | 29 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 10 | 6 | 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 | 30 | 26 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 49 | 27 | 1 | 512 | Green | 57 | 35 | 3 | 545 | |
| Moncrief | 32 | 18 | 1 | 271 | LaFell | 32 | 19 | 1 | 136 | |
| Aiken | 31 | 12 | 0 | 98 | Ross | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Doyle | 41 | 30 | 1 | 257 | Kroft | 21 | 18 | 3 | 162 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
IND Matchup Rating: 3.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: At least we get all the bad offenses out of the way on the first page! Vegas really doesn’t like the Colts this week, as they are double digit underdogs to a Bengals team that has, quite frankly, been bad this year. The line seems a little high to me, but that might also be me underrating the Bengals’ defense. Jacoby Brissett has taken a step backward over the past few weeks, though some tough matchups are to blame for some of that. The Colts did not score a single point against a tough Jaguars defense last week, though Brissett almost had no chance. He took a whopping TEN sacks on the day, which is quite the indictment on his offensive line. There’s no reason to take this risk with the Colts holding a meager team total of just 15 points this week.
Running Backs: Finally! The Colts actually gave Marlon Mack more snaps than Frank Gore last week, and Mack is poised for more playing time with Robert Turbin out for the season. The unfortunate part is that Mack got his playing time in a game where the Colts didn’t score a single point, so that doesn’t bode well for stating his case for additional work. However, the scoreless day was not his fault, as he logged 66 total yards on nine touches (five carries, four receptions) and once again looked spry with the football. I don’t love the matchup, but Mack is definitely a live GPP play that won’t cost you a huge chunk of your salary cap. Gore is not a DFS option at this point in his career. He isn’t reaching value if he doesn’t fall into the end zone.
Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton is ridiculously cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and you can consider him for his upside on those sites. I will be avoiding him on FanDuel. The Bengals have been below average against the tight end position, putting Jack Doyle in play as a low-end option at that position. The #2 and #3 wide receiver spots have been a disaster for this team, so the interest level abruptly ends at Hilton and Doyle. Remember, the Colts have an inexperienced quarterback and are heavy road underdogs in this game.
The Takeaway: This does profile as a good spot for the Cincinnati defensive unit, especially with how alarmingly low the Colts’ team total is. I don’t mind taking a shot on T.Y. Hilton on sites where he is cheap, and Jack Doyle is a reasonable low-end option at tight end. Marlon Mack is a decent GPP play too, as his snap count is trending in the right direction. Everyone else is off limits.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: It has been a rough 2017 campaign for Andy Dalton, though his play has improved a bit this month. He has seven touchdown passes over his last three games, but he has thrown four interceptions in the last two, and he only threw for 140 yards against the Steelers a week ago. However, this is a great matchup against a Colts team that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and just lost top rookie safety Malik Hooker for the season. The biggest risk here will be the Bengals potentially getting out to a huge lead and hammering the ball on the ground. Dalton’s 2017 numbers worry me, but the matchup makes him a reasonable target on the cheap in Week 8.
Running Backs: What is it going to take for Joe Mixon to play on more than 50% of the snaps for this team? Jeremy Hill is not the answer at this stage of his career, and Giovani Bernard is never utilized as a between the tackles runner. The team has nothing to lose by giving Mixon more playing time. His production hasn’t been all that great, but it’s hard for him to get into a rhythm when he is only playing on half the snaps. Mixon has caught all 14 of the targets that have come his way in the passing game, so it’s clear that he is serviceable in that department, too. This projects to be a game where the Bengals should be able to get a lead and pound the ball in the second half, and perhaps this is the week where we see Mixon get 20+ touches. There is some risk, but the matchup and his ability give him some upside at a cheap price tag.
Pass Catchers: Most of the volume in this passing game goes through A.J. Green, and that is likely going to continue given the fact that he is light years ahead of the other options in the passing game, especially with Tyler Eifert out of commission. Although he was stymied by a tough Steelers defense a week ago, Green had been averaging 121 yards per game over the three previous contests, scoring touchdowns in all of them. It is clear that Bill Lazor is making Green a focal point in the game plan on a weekly basis, and that only makes sense. The Colts don’t have anyone capable of handling Green on the outside, and Green is a top WR option in all formats this week. A Dalton/Green pairing makes some sense in tournaments. I am not going to bother with any of the other options. Don’t chase the touchdowns from low-volume guys like Brandon LaFell and Tyler Kroft.
The Takeaway: With this potentially being a game the Bengals could win comfortably, there is some appeal with the talent of Joe Mixon. The volume is a week-to-week concern, but perhaps this is the week we see him take over the backfield. He’s worth a look in GPP formats, especially since he is affordable in DFS. If you think the Bengals will take to the air enough, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are both solid options against an awful pass defense. They could be stacked together in GPP rosters.