NHL Grind Down: Thursday, January 19th - Page Two
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Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames
| Nashville Predators | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Chad Johnson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 20-17-7 | 24-20-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.68 | 2.55 | 18.10% | 82.80% | Team Stats | 2.60 | 2.66 | 21.10% | 81.60% |
With a poor 8-12-2 record away from the Bridgestone Arena this season, Nashville needs to quickly solve their road woes or they might be making some early spring tee-times. Nashville was defeated 1-0 in Vancouver on Tuesday night and will continue their tour of western Canada tonight in Calgary. While Calgary is not known for their defensive exploits, they have turned things around lately and only surrendered 1.88 goals per game in eight games this month. Peter Laviolette has plenty of weapons to throw over the boards, but the effect of losing both P.K. Subban and Roman Josi should not be overlooked. Ryan Johansen has been eerily quiet lately, but still leads the team with 30 points and is flanked by the dangerous pair of Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg on the top forward line. Meanwhile, sniper James Neal headlines a dangerous looking second line alongside Calle Jarnkrok and veteran Mike Ribeiro. All six forwards listed also see a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage which does bode well for them considering Calgary’s mediocre 81.6% penalty kill. Filling the void for both Subban and Josi are Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. They aren’t as offensively gifted as their injured teammates, but they are both locked into major minutes and share the duties on the point of the top power-play unit. Most sites have not adjusted their salaries to match their new expanded roles with this offense, so there is some value to be had here if you’re interested.
After rolling to a 5-2 victory over the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, the Flames will look to gain some momentum tonight as they host the Nashville Predators. These two teams will potentially find themselves battling for one of the final playoff spots in the Western Conference this season, so this game does take on some added importance for both squads. Glen Gulutzan has been tinkering with his forward lines pretty much all season long and things are no different as Johnny Gaudreau now appears set to play alongside Sam Bennett and Alex Chiasson on one line, leaving his former partner-in-crime Sean Monahan to center Kris Versteeg and Brouwer on the second line. To further muddy the waters a bit, Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund have actually been two of their most dangerous weapons lately and they join forces (along with Michael Frolik) on yet another very capable scoring line. On defense, there are more fine options to sort through. Dougie Hamilton has emerged this season to join Mark Giordano as a top-tier defenseman. Hamilton has picked up a goal and three assists in his last four games and is now on pace for a nearly a 50 point season. If you’re needing some salary relief, T.J. Brodie is fine value option as he’s been tasked with quarterbacking the #1 power-play unit and his recent cold stretch has suppressed his asking price across the industry.
Nashville Predators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.09 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 12, 114.35 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan Johansen ($6,500 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 67.38 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 99.95 PDO
Secondary Options
Filip Forsberg ($7,000 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.15 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 100.61 PDO
Viktor Arvidsson ($5,200 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.35 CF60, 2.7 xGF60, 101.17 PDO
James Neal ($6,900 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.03 CF60, 2.48 xGF60, 99.21 PDO
Ryan Ellis ($4,800 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.7 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 101.25 PDO
Mattias Ekholm ($4,500 FD, $3,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.32 CF60, 2.45 xGF60, 100.74 PDO
Expected Netminder
Pekka Rinne – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Calgary Flames
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.58 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -7, 108.66 CP60
Elite Options
Johnny Gaudreau ($7,400 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.74 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 96.41 PDO
Mark Giordano ($6,400 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.38 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 100.39 PDO
Dougie Hamilton ($5,900 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.71 CF60, 2.96 xGF60, 96.82 PDO
Secondary Options
Sean Monahan ($6,700 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.52 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 98.61 PDO
Mikael Backlund ($6,200 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.45 CF60, 2.69 xGF60, 99.48 PDO
Matthew Tkachuk ($5,700 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.6 CF60, 2.9 xGF60, 99.55 PDO
T.J. Brodie ($4,400 FD, $3,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.58 CF60, 2.06 xGF60, 96.11 PDO
Expected Netminder
Chad Johnson – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 7 GPP
Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks
| Colorado Avalanche | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Calvin Pickard |  | John Gibson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 13-28-1 | 25-13-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.05 | 3.38 | 13.60% | 78.60% | Team Stats | 2.62 | 2.47 | 21.30% | 83.00% |
Colorado surprised me by getting four pucks behind Corey Crawford on Tuesday night (and derailed a couple of my lineups in the process), but they ultimately showed their true colors blew a third period lead to lose a 6-4 decision. With a 13-28-1 record, they are the worst team in the NHL and have not only surrendered an ugly 3.38 goals against per game, but also happen to be the second lowest scoring team in the league as well (2.05 goals per game). With Anaheim owning a 15-5-3 record at the Honda Center as well cruising to an easy 4-1 victory when these two teams squared off last week, I’ll be looking elsewhere on this eight game slate.
With wins in four of their last five games, Anaheim continues to sit alone atop the Pacific Division and they should be very popular tonight with the dumpster fire known as the Colorado Avalanche invading the Honda Center. As mentioned above, they rolled to an easy 4-1 victory when these teams squared off last week and the Ducks own an impressive 15-5-3 home record this season as well. Offensively, each of their top two forward lines has been producing plenty of offense lately. The well known duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry will be joined by Rickard Rakell on the top line and all three shoot up my rankings in this matchup. Meanwhile, it’s actually the Ryan Kesler who has been one of the biggest difference makers for this team this season as he leads the way with 38 points in 47 games. He’s racked up 10 goals and 11 assists in 23 home games and has looked very comfortable playing alongside Jakob Silfverberg and Andrew Cogliano. On defense, both Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen run things from the point of their very good #1 power-play unit. With nine goals and 14 assists (and 106 SOG), Fowler has proven to be a bit more aggressive in the offense end.
Colorado Avalanche
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 46.51 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -42, 109.81 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Nathan Mackinnon ($7,100 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.9 CF60, 2.21 xGF60, 96.84 PDO
Matt Duchene ($6,600 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.53 CF60, 2.19 xGF60, 97.04 PDO
Tyson Barrie ($5,400 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.34 CF60, 1.89 xGF60, 96.83 PDO
Expected Netminder
Calvin Pickard – My Ratings (out of 10): 2.5 Cash, 4 GPP
Anaheim Ducks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.11 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 2, 107.41 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan Getzlaf ($7,400 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.03 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 99.38 PDO
Ryan Kesler ($7,300 FD, $6,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.61 CF60, 2.88 xGF60, 101.93 PDO
Corey Perry ($6,700 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.43 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 100.36 PDO
Cam Fowler ($5,200 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.85 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 99.97 PDO
Secondary Options
Jakob Silfverberg ($5,900 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.79 CF60, 2.79 xGF60, 103.21 PDO
Rickard Rakell ($6,400 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 47.58 CF60, 2.35 xGF60, 104.21 PDO
Andrew Cogliano ($4,700 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.69 CF60, 2.94 xGF60, 101.58 PDO
Sami Vatanen ($5,100 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.64 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 102.07 PDO
Expected Netminder
John Gibson – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 8.5 GPP
Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks
| Tampa Bay Lightning | San Jose Sharks | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Aaron Dell | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 21-20-5 | 27-16-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.70 | 2.89 | 22.90% | 80.30% | Team Stats | 2.62 | 2.31 | 16.80% | 83.20% |
Tampa Bay has been one of the more peculiar teams for me to understand this season. Sure, the Stamkos injury has been a MAJOR factor in their struggles, but this is basically the same team that made a legit run at the Stanley Cup last season without their captain. With that said, they dropped a 2-1 decision in Anaheim on Tuesday night and have now lost six of their eight games during the month of January. At this point, it doesn’t look like John Cooper is going to be able to get things turned around quickly enough to make a playoff run and the scheduling gods are not doing them any favors as they’re in the midst of a very tough six game road-trip. With that said, their poor results can’t be blamed in any way on Nikita Kucherov. The 23 year-old has racked up 17 goals and 24 assists in only 39 games this season and single-handedly has single-handedly made his linemates Ondrej Palat and Vladislav Namestnikov fantasy relevant. Alternatively, Jonathan Drouin has shown the offensive abilities that made him the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He may have had his five game scoring streak snapped on Tuesday, but has erupted for ten goals and 12 assists in 21 games since the beginning of December. On defense, Victor Hedman has pretty much been matchup proof this season. Among defensemen, only his counter-part tonight (Brent Burns) has more points than his 38.
The Sharks picked up a statement win in Los Angeles last night and now find themselves well within striking distance for the top spot in the Pacific Division. This team has plenty of offensive weapons, but the first one that requires your attention is the previously mentioned Brent Burns. He leads all NHL defenseman with 46 points in 45 games and his 175 shots on goal is the highest mark in the entire league. Burns is easily the top option on the blue-line this evening and fading him can become problematic in a hurry. Up-front, the top line of Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski and Patrick Marleau will be leaned on quite heavily this evening to carry the scoring load (particularly if Logan Couture is unable to lace things up again tonight). Pavelski has thrived at the Shark Tank this season where he’s posted eight goals and 15 assists in 22 home games. If healthy, Couture is certainly a fine option as well, but we’ll need to wait and hear about his status as game-time approaches. If you’re unable to afford Burns on the blue-line, but still looking for some exposure to this San Jose team, then both Marc-Edouard Vlasic and David Schlemko are worth a look. They obviously don’t have nearly the same offensive upside as Burns, but both players rack up the peripheral stats with consistency and that gives them the high-floor you can feel comfortable targeting in all game formats.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.55 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -13, 108.51 CP60
Elite Options
Nikita Kucherov ($7,800 FD, $6,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.54 CF60, 2.85 xGF60, 103.42 PDO
Victor Hedman ($7,000 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.37 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 99.98 PDO
Secondary Options
Jonathan Drouin ($6,500 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.5 CF60, 2.4 xGF60, 98.98 PDO
Ondrej Palat ($5,700 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.37 CF60, 2.48 xGF60, 99.44 PDO
Vladislav Namestnikov ($4,900 FD, $4,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.43 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 98.78 PDO
Tyler Johnson ($5,800 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.97 CF60, 2.2 xGF60, 98.65 PDO
Expected Netminder
Ben Bishop – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6 GPP
San Jose Sharks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.79 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 9, 113.44 CP60
Elite Options
Joe Pavelski ($7,900 FD, $7,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.78 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 103.01 PDO
Brent Burns ($8,200 FD, $8,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.98 CF60, 3.11 xGF60, 103.12 PDO
Secondary Options
Joe Thornton ($5,500 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.44 CF60, 2.68 xGF60, 100.59 PDO
Patrick Marleau ($5,700 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.75 CF60, 2.73 xGF60, 100.33 PDO
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($4,700 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.05 CF60, 2.26 xGF60, 99.45 PDO
David Schlemko ($3,400 FD, $3,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.14 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 101.21 PDO
Expected Netminder
Martin Jones – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 7 GPP