The Fantasy Grout, Week 9 - Controversy?

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2016-11-07 04:11:22

I guess there was a controversy this week? Did you miss it?

You probably didn’t miss that Eric Crain, jakz101 on DraftKings and lovable host on GrindersLive, took first, third, and fourth in the FF Millionaire (among several other top 100 finishes). He went full Mallen21 on the tournament this week. Before we get into the meat of controversy though, doesn’t it seem like any time anyone with a known name wins, there’s a problem? Feels like it.

I know in this forum post, multiple people, including Crain himself, stated “Some men just want to watch the world burn.” Man, The Dark Knight is a great flick. The Alfred from Michael Keaton’s iterations looks more like the Alfred in my mind than Michael Caine’s version does, but Caine’s role actually had some weight to it. When Caine gets off that line, he had to know it was one that people three generations down the line were going to quote without even knowing the origin. Also, he’s right. They do.

Now, that’s not to ignore the discussion here. That was just my instant reaction. Oh, someone people know won, I guess there must be some controversy.

The actual issue, if you didn’t click the link to the forum above, was that the line-up (really, the core across several lineups) was not in sync, in spots, with the suggestions he made in his Wednesday Incentives article. I do think people paying for advice are due at least accountability for that advice.

This is where the accusations split off. For those insinuating that Crain, or me, or anyone else, is “holding back” their best picks in the name of competition, that is simply not happening. There is no reason to do so. There is not a profound enough effect by any one person’s opinion for it to matter. Also, it sucks to write something and be wrong. Trust me.

Others acknowledge that opinions change over the course of the week, just as the information we use to form those opinions does, and that his assessment of the week just changed. That’s much more likely to be the case. The complaint then, was that he didn’t go in and update his thoughts in his article, with his most recent thinking.

This is the reason I thought it worth my time to talk about the situation. You are currently reading my opinions. I wrote some of them on Wednesday night and some on Thursday morning. Some will change. I will not go back in and alter them in writing. If this is a problem, I apologize. I am certainly willing to answer last minute questions on Twitter. Here’s my handle. It’s just that the time when I’m most confident in my opinions, having taken in the most information and had the optimum time to consider it, is Sunday morning. I’m unavailable for writing Sunday morning. I have lineups to hone.

You know who IS available Sunday mornings though? Eric Crain. That is the single reason it’s hard for me to sympathize. It’s hard for me to listen to people who want him to go back and give his updated opinions when he’s busy giving his updated opinions.

I’m very game to chat about this more in the comments. Let’s talk. Since I’m going to win the FF Millionaire this week, I thought I’d get in front of the issue!

Previously On The Fantasy Grout

Three fellas won the Shout for the second time, daddywarbuttocks, Datperpdaron, and pastorthor, and two first-timers joined them, as you can see here. ggman0831 slid up into first place overall, and JMToWin took a 5-3 lead on me.

Also, we did some positional reviews that people seemed to like, so we’ll give them another whirl.

Now, let’s spin.

$6,500-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End

Tight End

Week 8 was abysmal for passing in general, but the tight end position thrived, as you can see from this updated table.

The touchdown total was in line with all non-Week 7 totals, but Week 8 tight ends tied a season high in 100-yard bonuses, set a season high in 7-reception games, and tied for the second most 20-point games. There were no 30s, but then again, there was only one non-QB 30, total.

Also, I made the point last week, and it bears repeating, that a small sample of TEs are doing all the heavy lifting here. I think a finer point can be made though, so let’s look at a couple tables.

*- M. Bennett and R. Gronkowski should almost be considered one player, at this point. Except Week 5, where they both thrived, their success has been a zero-sum game. Going forward, Bennett hardly warrants a mention among this group.

Let’s compare those five with the next little group of five.

Three of the first five (Gronkowski, Bennett, & Reed) are on bye this week, as is one of the second five (Miller). That is, this discussion isn’t intended for this week specifically, but for the tight end position in general.

My point here is that after declaring the first group light years ahead of the rest of the position last week, I dug in a little more. It turns out that there’s a second group, which has similar volume expectations and therefore, roughly the same number of touchdowns, 7-reception games, and 20-point games. The way the first group differentiates itself is with its yardage potential, which in turn leads to more 30-point outings. That is, paying for the top group gives you extra ceiling, but not extra floor.

When you combine the two groups, you have 31% of tight end scores, 92% of 100-yard games (T. Eifert), 63% of 7-reception games, 68% of 20-point games, and 100% of 30-point games. All of the upside. As such, I’m not going to bother with a “Yada, Yada” for this position. I’m simply going to give you the one player not on that list, that I’m considering, but you should strongly consider playing someone outside of our Grout price range.

GANG GROUT

Kyle Rudolph, $4,000 VS DET – Detroit has faced none of the players in the first five and only two (Walker & Miller) in the second list. They’ve accounted for 6-of-55 scores by the rest of the leagues’ tight ends and 2-of-25 from that group of 10. At home, with his tight ends coach now the offensive coordinator, Rudolph won’t see a better spot all year.

Also, if that’s not enough evidence that Rudolph is going to score, @ScottBarrettDFB has more:

Note, that is among receivers, not just tight ends! If Scott provided any more aid to this column, he’s need a red cross as his avatar, instead of that beautiful mustache.

The only reasonable worry you could have in playing Rudolph is that tight ends play tricks on us. Sure, they can go run routes on every play, but they don’t. If ever there was a time for him to stay in and block, it’s this week, after the Vikings gave up 5 sacks to the Bears last week. Their big ticket free agent left guard, Alex Boone, left with a concussion, and as of this writing, his Week 9 status is unknown. That just further compounds the fact that both of their tackles have an IR next to their names in your Offensive Lineman Only fantasy league.

Whether Rudolph will need to help-out remains to be seen, but I’m playing Rudolph and hoping a second tight end can pick up the blocking slack.

WIDE RECEIVER

I will say, before I barf out how bad last week was, that I think it was a blip. There were six teams on bye and a London game, which means we had 10 rather than the standard 14 main slate games. We missed out on the Bengals and Redskins on the main slate, to go with Miami, New York (G), and Pittsburgh (and Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Baltimore, if you’re being technical). And, oh boy, did we miss them!

Through the first seven weeks, we averaged over 10.5 100-yard games from wide receivers. In Week 8, we got 6. With only six of 26 starting quarterbacks throwing for 300+ yards, that will happen. We’ve never had less than six receivers with 25-or-more points, and in Week 8, we had three: Amari Cooper, Jamison Crowder, and J.J. Nelson.

As I’ll note shortly, the running back position has been more consistent this year, at the top. What that leads to, if you follow that trend, is less roster spots for cheap backs and less budget for expensive wide receivers. Then, when you take out Julio Jones and Mike Evans after Thursday, the first and fourth-most expensive receivers this week, it creates a need for Grout-level pass catchers. Let’s fill that need.

YADA, YADA

First, a couple “Just a Note” guys.

Corey Coleman, $4,500 VS DAL – When we last saw Coleman, he was eleCtriC. (There are two c’s in “electric” for a reason!) He went 5/104/2 against Baltimore before breaking his hand. Every report this week includes some combination of words that mean “no limitations.” None mention Cody Kessler, who I view as a limitation. None mention Terrelle Pryor’s ascension, which I also view as a limitation. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Coleman.

Tyreek Hill, $3,400 VS JAC – He’s had 38- and 49-yard TD grabs, over the last two weeks, to go with another 5-for-24-1 game in the last four. I still don’t trust him. Maybe it’s his offensive snap counts over that span (Weeks 4 to 8, with a Week 5 Bye): 18 (24%), 18 (28%), 18 (35%), 21 (28%). Maybe it’s the high variant nature of deep passes. Maybe it’s the Nick Folesiness of it all? I can’t be certain. I just know his name is anagrammed to RT: HILLY, EEK, which basically guarantees things are going to be up-and-down for him.

Now, onto a couple guys I am strongly considering.

Sammie Coates, $4,300 AT BAL – Like non-mutual friends during a divorce, the Ravens mainly take sides. On one is Jimmy Smith and on the other is a flimsy, full-of-holes explanation about what happened in Vegas that weekend coverage unit. With Antonio Brown typically lining up on the left, opposite Smith, that leaves Coates to the rest of the secondary, to go long without checking in with his wife because his “phone was dead” and had “lost his friends” on routes.

I will say that I’d like some clarity about who is running where and how often, with Eli Rogers and Markus Wheaton still there, competing for snaps. Eli Rogers at $3,200, has its appeal as well.

GANG GROUT

Marqise Lee, $3,400 at KC – What about last week, you ask? I wasn’t happy with the result, so I’m ignoring it!

Truthfully, I can’t explain it more than to say that with such a large chunk of the game being garbage time, I kind of do throw out the results. Someone named Ben Koyack caught five balls late in the game, if you need an example of how garbagy it was. Poor Neal Sterling. Can’t even get work in garbage time. We’ll always have your Week 2 salary, Neal.

Before that 3 target, 1-for-21 effort, Lee had had 6+ targets in five straight games, averaging 5.4 receptions and 63 yards over that span. With a new offensive coordinator in charge, I can’t imagine him saying “That guy who catches the ball 73% of the time we throw it to him, let’s not do that anymore.”

Dontrelle Inman, $3,100 VS TEN – Travis Benjamin went to get a second opinion on his knee. When I hear that, my first opinion is that he’s probably not going to play this week. Because they found no structural damage and the diagnosis is just “a sprain,” it is possible he plays. That said, it’d be hard to expect him to be effective even if he suits up.

That leaves Inman and Williams ($5,000), which should both be fine plays. In a situation where usage varies a lot, I prefer the cheaper option. Here’s what we’ve had from those receivers the last couple weeks.

Week 8 AT DEN

T. Benjamin 3/41/1 on 9 targets; 38 snaps (47%)
T. Williams 1/4 on 6 targets; 59 snaps (73%)
D. Inman 4/72 on 7 targets; 79 snaps (98%)

Week 7 AT ATL

T. Benjamin 4/54 on 5 targets; 46 snaps (61%)
T. Williams 7/140 on 10 targets; 66 snaps (88%)
D. Inman 3/58 on 6 targets; 66 snaps (88%)

Obviously, there’s some variability over the last two games, but with one less mouth to feed, you’d expect a consolidation of volume. It’s also worth noting that a home game against a middling pass defense is going to feel like a Swedish massage after a couple dates with Denver in the last three weeks.

Alright, I’m going to come clean. I feel about the same about Inman as I did about J.J. Nelson last week. Because I didn’t quite trust my Nelson feelings enough, it cost me. Now, I’m over-compensating. If we’re calling a small garden shovel a spade, this is a low floor, high ceiling cheap play. Deploy it as such.

RUNNING BACK

The top-level running backs have more predictable this season than the one yellow Starburst that shows up in every two-pack. Not only are David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, DeMarco Murray, Melvin Gordon III, and LeSean McCoy all averaging over 20 points a game, but with only one game out of 41 under 12 (ignoring McCoy’s hamstring game).

Their consistency has been driven by volume, of course, but specifically volume in the pass game as well as the rush game. It’s created a situation where starting a back in the flex is very viable, and where spending up at back and down at wide receiver is a cash and tournament construct.

Consider the top-priced wide receiver this week, Julio Jones. His salary of $9,600 is $1,700 more than Ezekiel Elliott’s $7,900. Yet Zeke averages a full point more than Julio (21.6 v 20.6). Julio’s 51-point Week 4 speaks to Jones’s ceiling, but the wide receiver’s floor more than offsets it, with a 2.6, 4.9 and 5.9 already in eight weeks. The days of Marshall Faulk and Larry Johnson would be proud.

One tough situation you find yourself in is that the safest value is at running back as well, with injury-induced value plays sporting a discounted price and a guaranteed touch floors. Yet you can only start up to three backs. You want to create salary relief and spend it at the same position, which makes things hard. But, I can’t solve every problem for you.

I’ll give you them, and you figure out how to fit them in!

YADA, YADA

Darren Sproles, $3,900 AT NYG – The Eagles head coach was quoted this week, saying Ryan Mathews is “still the lead guy” for the Eagles. If I tell you the running back snaps in Week 8 were 63 – 8 – 6 – 1, which one do you think the “lead guy” got? The eight, of course.

Regardless of who plays on the first play, Sproles has been playing more plays all year. Also, thanks to his pass catching chops, he’s getting the ball in a more valuable way. That, and he’s just better. (His YPC over the last four weeks are 5.7, 8.7, 5.0, & 9.0.)

The only reason he’s not listed below is that “the lead guy” likely gets red zone touches, which helps establish floor and ceiling. Without it, Sproles is relegated to “dart” status. Given how fast he is, that seems appropriate.

Paul Perkins, $3,000 VS PHI – Stop me if you’ve heard this before. A team playing in Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday is shifting its running back load toward the more athletic, better pass-catching back. Actually, don’t stop me. I’ve got an important point to make.

The Giants distributed snaps fairly evenly in Week 7: 29 – Rashad Jennings, 15 – Paul Perkins, and 12 – Bobby Rainey. That was a bit of a departure from Jennings larger workload, early in the year. Then, they went on bye. Teams make major changes during bye weeks, and last year, the Giants solidified their backfield to one feature back, late in the season. If the same is going to happen this year, now would be as good a time as any for it to happen.

This is no guarantee, and candidly, the work could settle in Jennings’ arms as easily as Perkins. Beat writer Jordan Raanan expects Perkins’ role to increase, and Bah Gawd, I believe Good Ol’ JR.

GANG GROUT

Theo Riddick, $4,900 AT MIN

“At Minnesota, no way.”
“Hey Lee, can you help me out here.”

The Lions seem to have parted with the idea that Riddick is just the “Passing Down Back.” That, or they just decided that all passing downs are passing downs. Riddick logged 52 of 61 offensive snaps, and even when the Lions decided running might catch the Texans off guard, Riddick handled 11 of those 14 totes. The Lions realizing Riddick can be an every-down back is important. Maybe as important is that you realize it before you competitors, because once they do, you won’t be able to read about him in this (below $5,500) article anymore.

Oh yeah, Minnesota. The match-up isn’t great. Not going to lie. Riddick’s role though, taking the occasional carry to go with loads of easy to catch targets, can overcome any defense. Effectively, Minnesota’s defense will do little more than defend his ownership percentage for you.

Charcandrick West, $4,400 VS JAC – I don’t mean to paint-by-numbers here, but “3” is yellow and “5” is blue. The “35” on his back certainly looks like it will produce green.

Of course, the caveat is that this message will Mission Impossible if Spencer Ware plays. If not, it’s as simple as the only back left, in a running back friendly offense, against a non-threatening run defense. That easy.

Now if we can just get over the PTSD of The Chalkcandrick West Game, we can manage to click “Assign Lineup” with him in.

QUARTERBACK

Like an old woman, who has worked in an office her whole life, the quarterback prices are not just sagging on the top, but also the bottom. Rather than show you the progression, let’s just look at beginning and end snapshots to compare.

Week 1: 18 QBs $6,600-or-more & 3 QBs $5,100-or-less
Week 2: 11 QBs $6,600-or-more & 4 QBs $5,100-or-less
Week 9: 6 QBs $6,600-or-more & 6 QBs $5,100-or-less

Even when you factor in Week 1 price inflation, to deal with how long prices were out, and Week 9 byes, it’s still remarkable how much quarterback prices have fallen.

How should we interpret that? The obvious implication is that you can grab a higher-tier quarterback and still afford the majority of your RB/WR/TE shopping list. Digging deeper though, you see the reason for the price sag. Most of these guys are closer than you’d think, from a stats perspective.

Between D. Brees and J. McCown? Under 5 points per game. A. Rodgers and M. Mariota? Same. C. Newton and N. Foles? Just over 5 per game. Assuming those saggy buns have a larger pair of underpants covering them, getting jammed into an older, smaller pair of jeans, that situation and the current quarterback pricing situation can be described with the same single word:

Bunchy.

YADA, YADA

Marcus Mariota, $5,900 AT SD – “Crikey. I think we might have found an elusive running quarterback. This quarterback is the highest scoring breed of the species. Looks like he’s about 6-foot-4, 6-foot-5. Big too. Looks ferocious.”

Every time you hover over Mariota, you’re envisioning him streaking down the field, like his in Oregon days. Or, if you’re really optimistic, you just see this game. The problem is that you think you’re going to get the biggest of the breed and end up with an under-sized, 15-yard effort. Whether it’s coaching, self-preservation, or something else, Mariota has been reticent to get-out-and-go.

The reason you’d consider him anyway, this week, is that even with his dearth of rush yards, he’s still maintained a high floor. If you assume you’ll be happy with nothing less than 18 points on his $5,900 salary, his rounded results working backward from Week 8 are 20, 18, 29, 31, 9, 8, 18, and 19. Six Happy Games, Two Bummers. Nobody’s floor is without trap doors.

The two king-of-the-breed games (29 & 31), unsurprisingly, correspond to his two biggest rushing days. One of those underwhelming efforts was understandable, at Houston. It’s only a dud at home against Oakland that leaves you scratching your head.

The saving grace is that Tennessee will likely have to score to keep up. That is, the creature won’t be in a cage. He’ll be out in his natural environment, going up and down the field!

GANG GROUT

Philip Rivers, $6,500 VS TEN – Here’s why Mariota will need points to stay in range; Rivers is going off! Let’s start with yardage. He’s averaging 307 per game passing yards in six non-Broncos affairs this year, including four straight 300+ yard efforts. He’s slinging it.

It appears he may be entirely without Travis Benjamin, or just with a diminished version of him. As we saw above, for nearly half the snaps, that was already the case. The fix is great too, as he now as two effective tight ends just dying to get out in pattern.

At home, against a team that’s allowed the seventh most passing yards this season, the road should be pretty smooth. That his team has allowed the fifth most passing yards suggests even if he’s successful, he’ll likely not let off the gas. With Melvin Gordon III catching passes out of the backfield, he’ll have just enough extra octane in the offense to really cruise. Life is a Highway, Phil. Life is a Highway!

MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT

Let’s try something different: I’m in man, with Inman.