The Past is Prologue: Week 7
Sunday AM Update:
Ok a lot of news since Wednesday. At Quarterback, I think Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are the top two by a good margin. I’m sticking with Ryan on FanDuel, but switching to Brady on DraftKings since I have the salary to do so with a team that I like.
Running Back: This is where the news has changed things significantly. With the news that Jamaal Charles has experienced a setback, I’m sticking with Spencer Ware on both teams. I still like DeMarco Murray, but the value due to injuries is just too great not to take advantage. So I’m switching from Murray to Mike Gillislee on both teams. I’m targeting Gillislee over Jacquizz mostly due to ownership and price – I’m not a huge fan of Jacquizz at what some people have estimated could be 35%+ ownership, Tampa Bay has added Antone Smith since the break, and they’re not even favored to be San Francisco. I’d take Matt Jones at a cheaper price over Jacquizz on DraftKings. For both of my “official” lineups though, I’m picking Ware and Gillislee, and hoping that McCoy is playing on a snapcount.
Wide Receiver: I’m using the savings at RB on both teams to stick with Julio Jones, and add AJ Green, who is my second-highest projected WR this week. For my third WR on FanDuel, I’m adding Amari Cooper against Jacksonville, who I think is in a good spot to add a TD this week. On DraftKings, I’m pairing Brady with Julian Edelman, who I think should be able to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s slot cornerbacks and gets the full PPR on DK. I’m also adding Pierre Garcon in the Flex position on DraftKings, who I think is way underpriced at $3700 with Jordan Reed out.
Tight End: I’m sticking with Jack Doyle on DraftKings where he is minimum priced, but switching to Vernon Davis on FanDuel, where he is actually lower priced than Doyle. Again, I think the Redskins should be passing a lot and there are a lot of extra opportunities to go around with Jordan Reed out.
Kicker: I need to drop to a minimum priced Kicker on FanDuel, so I’m going with Ryan Succop at home against Indianapolis.
Defense: Unfortunately because of price considerations, I can’t get Cincy on either team, even though I think they are the top Defense going against Cleveland this week. On FanDuel I’m taking New England against Landry Jones in Pittsburgh at $4400, and on DraftKings I’m going with Baltimore at $2800.
Final Teams:
FanDuel:
Matt Ryan
Spencer Ware
Mike Gillislee
Julio Jones
AJ Green
Amari Cooper
Vernon Davis
Ryan Succop
New England
DraftKings:
Tom Brady
Spencer Ware
Mike Gillislee
Julio Jones
AJ Green
Pierre Garcon
Jack Doyle
Julian Edelman
Baltimore
end update
So in last week’s column I made a small change to the format of this series. Rather than picking a tournament that I entered each week and comparing the results of my best lineup to the winning lineup, I decided that moving forward I would compare the result of the lineup I recommended in this column to the winning lineup, in both cases with the goal of generating one lineup each for FanDuel and DraftKings for the upcoming week. There were several reasons for the change – I thought it was a more straightforward concept, it increased the accountability for my recommendations, and it removed the “but you didn’t use any of the players you recommended last week” criticism (which wasn’t really valid in my opinion, for the reasons I explained last week).
There were also several downsides to the move. The first was that it would be difficult to communicate lineup changes due to injury, playing time, and weather situations. The second concern was that people might just cut-and-paste my lineup without learning anything – ultimately I feel that I’m trying to teach DFS tournament strategy more than just providing picks.
All of these points ended up being valid except the last one – it turns out, in this situation at least, that the only person who is going to use the exact lineup suggested in an article on the internet is the person that writes that article, at least in the $2 entry FanDuel $35K Thu NFL Safety (Single Entry). That was definitely to my benefit, as the lineup finished in second place for a $2000 prize off of my single $2 entry.
Unfortunately, my point about it being difficult to communicate updates was valid. My DraftKings lineup had Will Fuller in it, as well as Russell Wilson. With Fuller looking doubtful and the potential for bad passing game weather in Seattle, I logged on early Sunday morning and left a comment suggesting that I was “officially” swapping Wilson, Fuller, Jeremy Maclin, and Coby Fleener to Matthew Stafford (due to the lack of healthy running backs for Detroit), DeAndre Hopkins (due to the possibility of increased targets with Fuller out), Michael Thomas, and Gio Bernard. I then tried to attach a screenshot to my comment. In the chaos of an NFL Sunday Morning, the comment never saved. I don’t have any “proof” that I left the comment, and unfortunately I also don’t have any way to know how the “old” lineup would have done. All I can do is compare the lineup that I switched to versus the winning entry in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker (my only entry in that contest this week), and promise to be better about confirming changes going forward. The lineup that I did submit ended up in 10,350th place, which doesn’t sound great, but in a contest like the Millionaire Maker with 256,904 entries, that was good enough to return $45 on my $20 entry.
Quarterback
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, I had the same QB as the winning entry – Drew Brees on FanDuel and Matthew Stafford on DraftKings. My thought process was straightforward in both cases – Drew Brees was playing at home where he does well in a high projected-scoring game and was only the sixth-highest salaried QB on FanDuel, whereas on DraftKings his higher salary and tighter pricing overall necessitated finding a cheaper but still high-potential QB. Sunday morning I ultimately landed on Stafford after it was announced that Detroit’s top two running backs would both miss the game, opening up the possibility of large number of passing attempts.
This week, I’m eyeing the same QB on both sites – Atlanta’s Matt Ryan ($8,700 FD, $7,200 DK). Although Stafford ($7,900 FD, $6,400 DK), Alex Smith ($7,200 FD, $6,100 DK), and Blake Bortles ($7,400 FD, $6,200 DK) all fit the mold of favored QBs playing at home in potential high-scoring games, nobody offers the upside of Matt Ryan against San Diego this week in what Vegas predicts will be the highest-scoring game of the week.
Running Back
Last week both of the winning lineups – and both of the lineups that I entered – had LeSean McCoy at RB. Surprisingly, that is where the overlap ended. On FanDuel, I paired McCoy with Lamar Miller, who put up 31.3 points and who I assumed would also be on the winning lineup. I was shocked when battletank passed me with David Johnson on his first TD on Monday Night– a testament to the output of the other components of his lineup. On DraftKings, both my lineup and Mallen21’s million dollar-winning entry had McCoy and Le’Veon Bell, however I tried to save money by fitting Gio Bernard into the Flex spot, while Mallen21 selected Lamar Miller.
This week, two running backs stand out to me as having the right combination of situation and upside – DeMarco Murray ($8,700 FD, $7,200 DK) and Spencer Ware ($7,000 FD, $5,800 DK). Murray should be a popular choice this week, playing at home facing a weak Indianapolis defense, but as last week proved, sometimes the popular choice ends up being the highest-scoring. With Kansas City heavily favored against New Orleans at home, I suspect the components of the Kansas City passing game to have high ownership, while people look at the running game and won’t want to pick between Ware and Jamaal Charles ($6,800 FD, $5,700 DK). Personally, I’ll roll with the RB that racked up 131 rushing yards last week.
As far as cheaper options go, I’ll be monitoring news this week on Jay Ajayi ($6,400 FD, $4,500 DK) and Jacquizz Rodgers ($5,600 FD, $4,300 DK). If news reports indicate that either RB is the clear starter, they could provide good value and the flexibility to add more salary at other positions.
Wide Receiver
On FanDuel, the main difference between battletank’s winning lineup and my second-place finish came at the WR position. While we both went with the underpriced Cameron Meredith, I selected Kelvin Benjamin and Amari Cooper, while battletank paired Brees with his top WR Brandin Cooks and struck gold with Detroit’s Golden Tate. Saving money with Tate is what allowed him to fit in David Johnson at RB, and while it was a winning strategy, I’m not even sure that battletank expected Tate to put up 26.8 points after failing to hit double-digits all season.
On DraftKings, Mallen21 and I both rolled with Michael Thomas, and like battletank, Mallen21 also rostered Golden Tate in his winning lineup. My insistence on rostering DeAndre Hopkins thinking that he would be heavily targeted with Will Fuller out of the lineup just wasn’t worth the salary, and although Cameron Meredith provided good value, he couldn’t touch the output Kenny Britt put up for Mallen21.
This week, the first thing I’m doing on both site is pairing Matt Ryan with his top WR Julio Jones. My guess is that I won’t be the only lineup with this combination, but Julio’s heavy usage along with the high projected Vegas total make it a difficult pairing to pass up. At my other wide receiver slots I’m looking to save some salary. On a Thursday night slate, Cameron Meredith ($5,900 FD, $4,700 DK) and Ty Montgomery ($5,600 FD, $3,000 DK) look appealing, while on the main slate, it’s again tempting to go with Michael Thomas ($5,700 FD, $4,700 DK). With my third WR slot, I’ll likely look to grab a piece of the Redskins passing offense against Detroit with Jordan Reed hurting. This could change if Reed is cleared by Sunday, but for now I’m eyeing whoever of DeSean Jackson ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK), Jamison Crowder ($6,200 FD, $4,300 DK), and Pierre Garcon ($6,100 FD, $3,700 DK) fits within my salary constraints.
Tight End
Last week on FanDuel, both battletank and I scored big with Coby Fleener at tight end. Unfortunately on DraftKings I swapped out Fleener Sunday morning and stuck with Jimmy Graham while Mallen21’s lineup rolled with Rob Gronkowski.
This week at the tight end position, although I’d love to fit Gronkowski ($8,500 FD, $7,200 DK) in if possible, I’ll likely look for value with Jack Doyle ($4,700 FD, $2,500 DK) taking over as the primary tight end in Indianapolis with Dwayne Allen on the shelf.
Kicker
Last week my lineup actually outscored battletank’s winning lineup with Mason Crosby just edging Nick Novak. This week I’ll look to save money again with Mike Nugent ($4,600 FD) kicking as a large favorite at home against Cleveland.
Defense
I thought for sure last week that the Buffalo defense would put up a high point total against San Francisco, and 27% of the players on FanDuel agreed with me. They only scored six points, but it didn’t make a difference in my tournament with battletank as his selection of Tennessee only put up six points as well. On DraftKings I got a couple extra points by going more contrarian with Seattle, while Mallen21 got 14 points by picking Philadelphia, the top-scoring defensive option of the week.
This week several teams are in good situations, and although I’m tempted by New England ($4,400 FD, $2,900 DK) facing Landry Jones in Pittsburgh and Minnesota ($4,900 FD, $3,700 DK) against Philadelphia, my top option is Cincinnati ($5,100 FD, $3,600 DK) at home against the Cleveland Browns.
What does it look like when we put all of the pieces together? On FanDuel:
On DraftKings I ended up adding Tyrell Williams who fit with the rest of the lineup at $4,400 and provides good value:
Can I promise one of these lineups will return $2,000 on a $2 entry? I can, but I’d probably be wrong. I will promise to do a better job with the updates this week and actually confirm that they get posted as well as posting any changes to my twitter account @jbresl. Let me know what you think in the comments, and definitely let me know if you won anything with my lineup from last week!