Week 16 - In Which I Answer Questions
Merry Christmas.
Happy New Year.
All that.
Oh, also: Football!
This week, I asked for questions on Twitter.
Below, I am answering them. Most of them are DFS-related. Most of them will (hopefully) help you as a DFS player.
Why am I wasting time telling you what you’re about to read? – you’re about to read it!
Go on. Read it.
@DamianJsonWhite
What was a Christmas gift that you never got as a kid, that you’d love to get now?
I wasn’t a kid. It was maybe eight or nine years ago. I wanted a signed screen-print of a Kurt Vonnegut drawing. I would still say yes to that if it came into my possession.
One of my favorite presents I got as a kid was my Drew Bledsoe jersey. I was wearing it at the airport one time and Drew Bledsoe came down the escalator. He spotted me and called out, “Nice jersey,” then he came over and chatted with me for a moment. It was awesome.
My all-time favorite present was a Jerry Rice jersey that had my last name on it. I got it when I was five years old, and it hung down to my knees. I wore it every day for a month. I still have it in my closet.
@ZippycBrian
where u from JM. I thought north shore?? Stoneham melrose Peabody Gloucester??? Waltham over here
I no longer live in New England (though my parents live in Plymouth, and I’m up there to visit them often), but I grew up in Winchester – eight miles north of Boston. It’s still one of my favorite towns I have ever been to.
@carecom1
Does your tournament strategy differ playing a $3 buy vs a $20 or higher buy?
Tournament strategy, for me, can differ a bit based on the number of entrants in the contest, but it never varies based on the buy-in amount.
Well…that’s not entirely true, I guess. My strategy might differ a bit in the $1k tourney compared to, say, a $5 tourney, as certain players see higher ownership as the buy-in goes down. The sharper the DFSers in a tournament, the sharper the plays will be…which can swing high ownership toward sharp plays and away from “fish plays,” and can sometimes make “fish plays” the right plays, as they’ll be so much lower-owned.
Ultimately, though, it’s all about tournament size. Any multi-entry tourney with several thousand people should be approached the same, in my opinion – and that’s the case regardless of buy-in level.
@pbonz
Great read….do you play any head 2 heads? And thoughts on 50/50 vs double ups? Are you strictly 50/50 and gpp?
I almost never play H2H in NFL, though that’s mostly because I don’t really see the need to snipe head-to-heads. I would rather play double-ups, where I’m not taking money directly from another player. With that said, I do play head-to-heads in NBA, where I’m not an elite player and I enjoy the challenge of matching wits with others. In NFL, however – unless someone sends me a H2H request – I stay out of them, as I can make just as much money by ramping up double-up play and not searching for potential fish I can tackle head-on.
@NecessaryPaper
is TommyG the dumbest dfs player out there?
He may be a mad genius whom no one understands. We’re all still trying to figure that one out. (I think he’s trying to figure that one out as well.)
@lakergreat1
How do you narrow down your pool of GPP players each week. I have a hard time with QB’s, and especially WR’s. How do you then decide on exposure percentages and track and build teams based on that.
This is one of the greatest keys to single-entry (or limited-entry) success, I feel: narrowing down the field of players to the smallest possible point. The most difficult aspect of this is sticking with players “because there are things about them you like.” Instead, you should be trying to narrow things down to the one or two quarterbacks, the two or three running backs, the three or four wide receivers, and the one or two tight ends you “like more than anyone else at the position.” Don’t get married to a player because you “like some things about them,” or because you are “scared of missing out on a big game from them.”
Fear is one of the strongest driving forces behind losing DFS teams. Find the best players at each position you can find, and trust your research enough to stick to these players when it comes time to build your team.
@davestern1
do you base GPP lineups on a cash game core? Or go riskier (low floor, high ceiling) at most positions? also, how do you identify “risky” players & how many lineups do you trust them in? Woodhead this week a good example
The idea that “GPP players” are inherently “risky plays” is one of the most prevalent myths I try to debunk. Too many people build consistently -EV lineups, assuming they need to make “risky plays” with no basis for belief that these plays will work out. Instead, “GPP plays” should be the guys who have a clear path to a big game…and whom no one else is noticing or talking about.
Last week, Woodhead did not have a clear path to a big game. The Chargers had phased him out of the offense – instead working to get Melvin Gordon as much on-field experience as they could. When Gordon got hurt last week, he had 16 touches and Woodhead had only four. Although Woodhead had done damage with these early touches already, the truth was, you really needed a Gordon injury to trust that there would be enough volume for Woodhead to be expected to succeed. Without a Gordon injury, Woodhead’s expected floor was so low that he could single-handedly sink an otherwise-solid tournament team.
A couple great examples of what I see as “great tournament plays” can also be pulled from last week. One play came on Jay Raynor’s team (BeepImAJeep) in the DraftKings Live Final. If trusting the Vegas lines for research (as most of you probably do), we would all have seen last week that the Steelers were favored over the Broncos by five or six points. The assumption we could make here, then, was that the Broncos would eventually have to abandon their run-heavy approach and take to the air. This assumption could have been strengthened by the fact that the Steelers are strong against the run and very poor against the pass. So what did Jay do? While plenty of people rostered Demaryius Thomas, he took things a step further and rostered Brock Osweiler and Emmanuel Sanders as well. The Broncos abandoned the run earlier than expected, and they failed to do anything in the second half, but they did enough that Osweiler and Sanders gave those few who rostered them a huge edge in tourneys.
The other example of what I see as “great tournament plays” was on my team last week, where I rostered James Jones. For most of the week, I was high on Randall Cobb, but late in the week I realized that Jones had endured a run of facing Darius Slay twice, Jason Verrett once, Kyle Fuller once, and the Rams, Broncos, and Panthers. Slay and Verrett are top-10 cover corners according to Pro Football Focus; Fuller was playing well when he squared off with Jones; and the Rams, Broncos, and Panthers are the top three pass defenses in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA. I also started thinking about the fact that the Packers offense runs much more smoothly when they are able to get things going with outside receivers, and I knew that Davante Adams is not only untrustworthy to begin with, but that he would also have the only tough matchup for the Packers against David Amerson. If Jones had come into last week with some easier matchups behind him, he would have had a much nicer string of games, and he would have been priced higher, and he would have been more popular than he was. Instead, everyone overlooked him in spite of the fact that things lined up nicely for him to be heavily involved and have a solid game.
In my mind, that’s what constitutes a “great tournament play.” Personally, when I identify one such play, I tend to play that guy in cash games as well (as I did with James Jones last week; my thinking is, essentially, “If you are confident enough in a low-owned play, you might as well play him in cash as well to give you a clearer path to a sure-thing cash”). But even if you don’t play these guys in cash, you should be looking for plays like this in tourneys.
@ramagosr
what are the most common mistakes low level grinders make in DFS, whether strategy, BR management, or game selection?
My take: the most common mistake low-level grinders make is being impatient. People want to win a whole bunch at once, and they take risks that put them in a position where they might not be able to win anything at all, as they blow through all their bankroll (and sanity) at once.
@tano2k1
what’s like your average number of line ups per week? Thanks and i love your articles
Average is probably around 1.4.
Most weeks I play one lineup. Some weeks I play two or even three.
@dappleb
where do you start ur research each week? I feel like some weeks my thinking overly swayed by “expert opinions” before I form mine
I don’t look at others’ thoughts until late in the week. I start my research by breaking down every game from top to bottom.
@Brooksrobinson5
for a low budget college student what DFS games would you recommend-$1 GPPs or cash Games?
Regardless of bankroll size, I recommend asking yourself, “What is my goal in DFS?”
There are some people with a bankroll of $40k or $50k – large enough to really grind out “full-time living” money in DFS – who nevertheless have a goal of “striking it big all at once.” For such people, it makes sense to keep chasing big payouts even if they risk losing their money, as they won’t be happy – and therefore won’t be able to focus and play well – just trying to grind out gradual profit.
There are other people with small bankrolls who still don’t like the risk, and are comfortable gradually growing, say, $100 into $200 over months of hard work, rather than risking losing what they have.
If you are playing with $1 buy-ins, it’s probably best to view DFS as nothing but pure entertainment. Take some chances; if you hit a nice payout and suddenly have a bunch of money in your account, decide how you want to change your approach from there.
@skimbad
do u play any NFL postseason DFS? After NFL, do u play NBA DFS b4 MLB DFS?
I played postseason last year. I’m assuming I’ll do the same this year, even though there is less of an edge to be gained.
I will pick up NBA heavily as soon as NFL ends as well.
@rickalthamgolf
How long did it take you to start making a consistent profit playing dfs?
Honestly? About two weeks.
But it took a whole lot longer than that for the “consistent profit” to be “consistent enough” that I could actually rely on it coming in. I’d probably peg the time frame for that at about a year, but that’s something I am always aiming to improve on – the consistency of my profit. Hopefully, that is something I will always improve on.
@razorronnie_dfs
using bank management how much money do you put on GPP’s compared to cash games..and compared to bankroll
@RyanClarkSTL
What % do you spend on cash games vs GPP? What would you consider reasonable?
I think the approach for each different person should be different. From my perspective, this is largely about understanding yourself, psychologically. Can you handle the swings of going GPP-heavy? Conversely, can you handle the dullness of going cash-heavy, without getting lazy in your approach or suddenly making dumb bankroll decisions all at once? Each DFS player has to find the balance that works best for them.
In NFL, I put about twice as much in cash as I put in tourneys each week. I also don’t do well when I “lose money I have already counted as profit.” As such, I budgeted out my buy-ins for the entire season off profit I had already won. So if someone were to ask me how much I have made this year, my answer would be, “If I lose all my entries in Weeks 16 and 17, I will have made [blank].” By not even counting my Week 16 and 17 buy-ins into my profit, I can be aggressive in those weeks without feeling like I need to “protect my profits.” This idea of “protecting profits” or “winning back money I lost” has gotten me in trouble in the past, so I have found that budgeting out my buy-ins in advance and already considering that money to be gone works best for me.
@shanefromsd
what do you tell yourself when you do tons of research, make good lineups and get killed? Lost 2/3 of bankroll last 3 weeks.
If you are losing 2/3 of bankroll in a three-week span, the first thing I would say is adjust your bankroll strategy. Obviously, that advice does not help now, after the fact! But most people advise putting anywhere from 5% to 10% of bankroll in play in any given slate. Personally, I feel that 10% is massive, and is a great way to set yourself up for a huge and sudden collapse, as it is not unheard of to do everything right, get hit hard by variance, and have a six or seven slate losing streak. Three poor weeks is nothing to get down on yourself about; just keep refining the process, improving, and moving toward a greater level of consistency!
@gj_roy
On grinders live you said u had made 140 lineups already, do u always make that many and then choose 1 or 2 to play?
I usually end up making around 60 to 80 lineups. Along the way, I continually narrow things down to the guys I like the most. I don’t so much “choose one or two lineups to play”; instead, I narrow down the guys I like until, at any point between Wednesday and Sunday, I end up building the team that pulls together my “narrowed-down list of players” to the handful of guys I like the most.
@bigelam
#1 rule for GPP roster construction?
Play to win.
Don’t play “to cash.”
Play to win.
@SugeW
Do you consider DFS your full time job? And, how much (average) research do you do a day when playing?
Probably 60% of my income comes from DFS play, with the other 40% comprised of my DFS writing, my freelance writing, and my fiction writing. I guess I don’t consider any of those to be “jobs,” as they are all things I enjoy – but in the sense that these things all bring in money, DFS play is more my “full-time job” than anything else.
Each week during MLB and NFL I probably put in 40 to 60 hours of research. I am not as good at NBA, and I don’t mind the little break between NFL and MLB, so I put in less time for NBA and use that time to work on other projects.
@mainil_rules
who is the better pure writer HST or Pierre menard? How long before it clicked for you?
Hunter S. Thompson is one of the best, pure writers to ever have done it. Because of his crazy lifestyle, the easy brilliance of his writing is often overlooked. He worked his tail off, too. No one worked harder at the craft than him.
I was probably writing for ten years before I was actually, honestly “good” – but I don’t think it ever truly and fully “clicks.” I think a writer’s goal is to keep improving every day…much like a DFS player.
@Siminski19
Is a hot dog a sandwich?
It depends on what city you live in. In Chicago, a hot dog is definitely a sandwich.
@relater
how do you break dfs losing streaks? Do you change anything? What’s your self review process? Thx
Oftentimes, the best way to break a losing streak is the most difficult way of all: take a break from DFS altogether. I had a nasty losing streak in MLB this last summer, and by the time I reached the end of it, I had moved far away from my standard approach.
When you take a break from DFS – even just for a week or so – it can help you get your mind right, and can help you see what you were doing differently during the losing streak compared to what you had been doing before.
@MatthewPetrich1
ive been wanting to knoow how you got into writing and when, if ever, do you decide to lock in a lineup?
1) I started writing when I was 14. I just sort of started, and I loved it, and I haven’t stopped since.
2) I never fully lock in a lineup until Sunday morning. I think this is important. A lot of times, by Wednesday, I have come up with the lineup I end up using that weekend. But I still spend the rest of the week questioning everything about that lineup, challenging myself to look at different things, and asking myself if there is any way I can improve on what I am already doing. Sometimes, I make improvements along the way; other times, I stick with what I had all along. But by challenging myself throughout the week to keep looking at everything, I ensure that I am overlooking nothing.
@rotokevin
if the electric train heads south out of Philly at 85 mph with a 95 mph tailwind, which direction does the exhaust go?
There is no exhaust from the electric train, but I hear the conductor smokes a pipe, and the exhaust from his cabin stays locked in there with him.
@chadoshea
What are some mistakes you made as a beginner in DFS and what did you learn from them to become much better?
Celebrating my successes too much.
Beating myself up too much over my failures.
I have learned to keep a level head – to not get too excited when I win, and to not get too bummed when I lose. Instead, I try to stay steady, examine what I did well and what I did poorly, and continue to improve.
@ramagosr
do you see it as reasonable to focus on gpp over cash exclusively long term? >5k games each I’m ITM/ROI Cash 55/-2, Gpp 24/16.5. I always read that cash should be foundation of serious play, but same players pop up over and over h2h. Gpp seem more fishy…especially wondering why you play DU if your gpp cash rate is so high as you’ve said. Where’s the value without the upside?
There are plenty of successful players – players who make enough that they could (or do) use DFS for their full-time living – who are GPP-only. I think finding the approach that works best for you is important.
I think it’s misleading to categorize cash only in terms of H2H, though. I play almost exclusively double-ups for my cash game play.
As to my GPP cash rate (roughly 50%), and why I then play double-ups: My double-up cash rate is right around 80%. If one cashes at a high rate in GPP, one will cash at an even higher rate in cash games if using the same lineup(s). But it’s not as though I only play one or the other. I started my DFS career as a tourney-only player. I shifted to strike a more steady balance between the two. I play GPPs not “just to cash,” but instead, for the upside. I play cash games for the steady, consistent profit.
@christuhfuhrr
Qs: How to deconstruct winning lineups? What should I be gaining? How to ignore hype from the experts every week?
First off: Don’t simply deconstruct “winning lineups”; after all, -EV lineups will sometimes win. Instead, deconstruct the lineups of consistently-profitable players. This way, you can see the decisions they are making – which are consistently profitable decisions, even on days these decisions do not pay off.
Basically, see who these guys rostered, then ask yourself what would have led them to identify these players. A great example of how this could work would be seeing James Jones on my roster last week, or seeing the Broncos stack on BeepImAJeep’s lineup last week. Upon spotting those plays, you could ask yourself, “What thought process led them to roster these guys?” By asking this question, you could then challenge yourself to look for similar things on the next slate of games.
@DudeFantasyBro
What would your approach be/how would it be different if you had the bankroll of an amateur.
When I first started out in DFS, I knew I had no interest in gradually grinding my way up to a bigger bankroll. I had an amount of money I was willing to lose, and I was willing to take risks with that money. If I lost, I was fine waiting until I could spare some more money for another shot.
If I had a small bankroll, I would once again be more aggressive with my bankroll than I am these days. That’s a personal preference, as I know I would not be able to focus fully or make consistently smart decisions if I were simply hoping to gradually grind my way up to a larger bankroll. But each player’s approach should be tailored to what works best for them, psychologically. For me, I would be more willing to take big risks and lose with a smaller bankroll than I would be to gradually grind my way up to a higher level.
@flyingtrain77
If you’re entering, say, 100 cash game contests, how many different lineups do you use in those 100 contests?
One. I have never used more than one cash game lineup in a single week.
@BenjaminLyons
What are your thoughts on the future of DFS?
I wish I knew…
I’m thinking positive thoughts, though! I think the leagues and many lawmakers want DFS to stick around, so hopefully everything comes together for the good.
WEEK 16
QUARTERBACKS:
Cam Newton at Falcons: Cam is about the most obvious play we can mention right now, as he has been absolutely on fire. The Falcons’ defense has very little chance of slowing down Cam, but the bigger question is whether or not the Falcons’ offense can do enough to force Cam to stay aggressive. I do not think Cam is anywhere close to a “must play,” as I don’t think the Falcons will turn this into a back-and-forth affair, but I do think the Falcons will keep this game competitive enough that Cam has another solid day. You probably won’t regret fading him, but I doubt you’ll be disappointed if you roster him, either – as long as you are able to build a strong roster around him as well.
Ben Roethlisberger at Ravens: The Steelers are the best passing offense in the NFL, and the Ravens are one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. As is the case with Cam, the only real concern with Roethlisberger is that this game may get out of hand. Unlike Cam, however, Roethlisberger’s defense is not very good through the air, which always heightens the chances of his opponent keeping pace. Considering Ben’s opponent will either be quarterbacked by Jimmy Clausen or Ryan Mallett, you could create a defense for fading Ben. But when it comes down to it, he’s probably the safest play on the weekend, and his upside is always as high as anyone’s.
Blake Bortles at Saints: Concerns over Drew Brees’ health certainly create concerns over the chances of this one turning into a true shootout, but we also need to remember that the Jaguars have been content to go pretty pass-heavy regardless of what is happening on the scoreboard. With a healthy cast around him and a matchup in New Orleans on his plate, there is very little chance you could “go wrong” by rostering Bortles; the only real question is whether rostering him is “right enough” to help you pass those who roster Cam and Ben. My answer? Maybe…
Ryan Fitzpatrick v Patriots: The Patriots have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, and Fitzpatrick is not exactly the kind of guy who transcends his matchup. But on the other hand, there is almost zero chance the Patriots try to run the ball against the Jets, and with Brady likely to throw over 50 passes, that will increase the chances of the Patriots scoring, and it will increase the number of total plays that are run in this game (as extra passes lead to extra incompletions, which lead to extra clock stoppages). We could easily see Fitzpatrick top 40 pass attempts in this one, and even in a tough matchup, this makes him a really intriguing value play at a position where there is very little value to be found.
RUNNING BACKS
Doug Martin v Bears: Doug Martin is not going to sneak by anyone (well…anyone besides myself and others like me who hate to pay up for running backs), but he is still worth mentioning, as he is chasing the rushing title, and the Bucs are facing what might be the worst run defense in the NFL. Expect at least 20 carries for Martin in what should be a closely-contested game, and expect him to have plenty of success on the ground with these touches.
Denard Robinson at Saints: Last week, Denard Robinson played 62 out of 62 snaps. Perhaps even more importantly, the Jags hardly kept him in to pass block at all, and the Saints are unlikely to give them a reason to change that approach. While the Saints have been playing better defense on the outside lately, they have still been extremely weak against the run, and they have been susceptible to passes over the middle. These are two areas where Robinson will be featured, which means these are two areas where Robinson should be able to have some very nice success.
James White at Jets: The Patriots pretty much make no effort to run the ball when they take on the Jets, instead opting to use short, quick passes to move down the field. With Darrelle Revis taking away one wide receiver, however – and with the Pats’ other receiver options being weak (especially if Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman each miss this game – leaving Revis on Brandon LaFell) – this will leave Brady throwing a large chunk of his passes to two guys: Rob Gronkowski, and James White. White should be on the field for most of the game this week, and he should get plenty of work through the air, making him a somewhat sneaky and extremely strong play this weekend.
Rashad Jennings at Vikings: If the Falcons lose to the Panthers or the Rams lose to the Seahawks (each of which is a likely scenario), the Vikings lock up a playoff berth before Sunday Night Football. If the Packers then fall to the Cardinals, the Vikings’ Week 16 game means absolutely nothing, as they will be playing the Packers in Week 17 with the NFC North crown up for grabs. If this is the case, the Vikings are likely to take things easy on their important, banged up players – namely Linval Joseph and Anthony Barr. If these guys play a limited number of snaps, Rashad Jennings enters a much easier matchup. He has been getting work lately (at last!), and has played well. With Odell Beckham Jr. out for this game, we could see 20+ touches for Jennings, and the matchup will work in his favor for him to have a big game at low ownership on Sunday night.
Note: Obviously, David Johnson is in play as well. But you didn’t need me to tell you that…
WIDE RECEIVERS
Mike Evans v Bears: When Vincent Jackson is on the sidelines, Mike Evans sees targets. Lots and lots of targets. This week, V-Jax is going to be out again, and while Evans’ targets are not as efficient as we would like them to be, he should once again soak up looks in the teens. Any guy with this level of talent, seeing that level of work, is someone you have to strongly consider right away. Evans should be in for a big Week 16.
Martavis Bryant at Ravens: Antonio Brown is about the most obvious play on the weekend, and he will surely see the highest ownership percentage on the weekend (or second-highest – perhaps behind only David Johnson). But while Antonio is certainly a great bet to lead the NFL in raw fantasy points this weekend, Martavis is likely to outdo his teammate in a point-per-dollar sense – especially on DraftKings, where Martavis is especially underpriced. Martavis is pretty much a lock for eight to ten targets, and he has the talent and explosiveness to turn these looks into a monster game.
Kamar Aiken v Steelers: If we expect the Steelers to jump out to a lead against the Ravens (hint: we do), we have to then expect the Ravens to be in “catch up” mode. This will mean lots of passing…against one of the poorer pass defenses in the NFL. Kamar Aiken’s targets over the last six weeks have been: 12, seven, 11, ten, eight, 14. Expect his targets to once again reach double-digits, and this sort of work against one of the worst secondaries in football will automatically make him one of the top plays to consider this weekend.
Allen Hurns at Saints: Although Hurns has seen a lighter workload lately in terms of targets, he is still one of the most explosive wide receivers in the NFL. What’s more, he is facing the Saints, with the easier matchup between he and Allen Robinson (as Hurns is likely to spend more time running routes over the middle of the field), and with the lower ownership of the two. Hurns certainly has a “bust” floor, but he also has the sort of ceiling that can win you the weekend with the low ownership he’ll see.
TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski at Jets: Last time these teams met, Gronk saw 16 targets. That was with Julian Edelman healthy. Although it is tough to pay this much for a tight end (certainly, paying this much for a tight end is something I always try to avoid!), this lines up as exactly the type of week in which Gronk could have a monster game. Forget about the fact that this is a tough matchup (since when does that matter with Gronk?), and instead simply realize: If Gronk sees 16 targets again, he should post yet another monster day.
Julius Thomas at Saints: The Saints are bad at a lot of things on defense, but maybe the spot where they are worst of all is slowing down the tight end. With Thomas running over the middle – where the Saints are especially weak – he could see close to double-digit targets once again, with a number of looks near the end zone. The “old Julius Thomas ceiling” is back in full effect, and his floor is a whole lot higher than it used to be as well, making him one of the strongest plays on the weekend.
Zach Miller at Buccaneers: Zach Miller has become a far more reliable fantasy option than any of us could have envisioned a month ago, and now he gets to face a Bucs secondary that is fundamentally susceptible to tight ends. Even if Alshon Jeffery plays, Miller is a strong bet for another six to eight targets – including looks near the goal line – and if Alshon is out, Miller’s usage will rise even more. He’ll go overlooked by most DFSers, making him a very intriguing play this weekend.
Will Tye at Vikings: Outside of Julius Thomas and Gronk, Tye may be my favorite tight end play on the slate. In a point-per-dollar sense, he may be my favorite. With Odell Beckham out for this game, Tye is going to soak up some extra looks, and the Vikings grade out as one of the worst teams in football against the tight end. Tye is a threat downfield; Tye is a threat underneath; Tye is a threat in the red zone. To put it simply: Tye is a threat to have a big game on your roster this weekend.
And it’s Christmas Eve, and I’ve been working all day – writing this article and doing GrindersLive.
Excuse me. I’m going to go have some fun.
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Monday night, and I’ll see you back here next week for our last hurrah of the regular season.