Week 8, In Which I Pace & Mumble
Sometimes, I pace.
Sometimes, I talk out loud to myself. I especially talk out loud to myself.
I like to do this when I’m thinking through something – you know, like when I’m writing… or when I’m building a DFS team. It feels weird to do this when my wife is home, though – pacing and mumbling under my breath.
The last couple weeks, my wife happened to be away from home on Saturday night, and I happened to be home. I used this time to pace and mumble and finalize my NFL teams. But this week, we have friends coming over on Saturday night for a Halloween party. I probably will not be pacing and mumbling much then. I guess I still could have, if I had thought ahead and made that part of my Halloween costume somehow, but my wife told me I’ll be a magician this Saturday night. I don’t know how pacing and mumbling fits in with that.
As such, I’m going to do something different in this week’s article. (We always like that, don’t we!) I’m going to “pace and mumble under my breath…” in writing form.
I genuinely feel the best DFS articles are those that provide a glimpse into the way someone else sees and approaches their DFS prep and roster construction. While my weekly NFL Edge article (for RotoGrinders Incentives members) is the most valuable thing I write on any given week because of the way in which I break down every single game from top to bottom, I feel that article is just as beneficial for readers in the way it allows them to get inside my mind and hang out with my thought process for a bit. That is not to imply that “my thought process” is any more valuable than “anyone else’s” thought process. I say that, instead, to simply say that looking at others’ thoughts is really beneficial (is a whole lot more beneficial, for sure, than just reading an article in which someone says, “Here – these are some guys you should consider using this week”).
This is not a traditional “picks” article this week (since when do I really do anything with these articles that could be considered “traditional”?). Hopefully you don’t mind.
Hopefully this will prove to be something a lot more valuable.
You ready?
Let’s “pace and mumble.”
QUARTERBACKS
I don’t know. It seems Philip Rivers is just so obvious this week – it almost compels me to find a reason to fade him. There are reasons, of course. Well…“reason” – that whole “West Coast to East Coast” thing. Heck, I was tired all day today just because I seemed to wake up at a weird point in my sleep cycle; it makes sense that these West Coast guys tend to struggle at times in East Coast games when it’s like playing at 10 a.m. in terms of what their internal clock is telling them.
Still, though. It’s Philip Rivers. The guy has thrown the ball at least 48 times in three straight games, and the Ravens have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Sometimes, chalk is chalk because it’s the right play, right? Todd Gurley against the Browns was the right play last week. Brandon Marshall the week Eric Decker was out was the right play. Sometimes, you go with the chalk and keep up with the field on the best value at the position and create differentiation elsewhere.
RUNNING BACKS
Where is there to create differentiation, though? There are not a lot of options this week for paying down, which means most people will be on the same values and will therefore be on the same “higher-priced” plays. I guess the main place where we can pretty much bank on everyone going is Todd Gurley. Right? He was massively owned last week and put up a massive game; everyone who benefitted last week is going to want to go there again, and everyone who missed out is going to want to go there as well. How certain am I that Gurley will far exceed value this week in a tougher matchup? (No, I know – the 49ers are not a tough matchup; but they’re not the Browns’ run D.) Gurley had five targets last game, but he only had three total targets in his previous three games combined. What if he only gets one or two targets? If that’s the case, he basically needs 100 yards and two touchdowns to make “fading him” a regrettable play (or 160 yards and one touchdown). He’s certainly capable of it, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lock. I think you have to play Gurley in cash games to provide yourself with protection, but there is definitely merit to going a different direction in tourneys.
Justin Forsett is going to be lower-owned than he should be. He’s not as talented as Gurley, but he’s playing “the other Browns” this week – the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are atrocious against the run, and maybe the Ravens try to play keep-away from Rivers. It would make sense for them to do this.
Of course, if I’m really so concerned about “differentiation,” why not go all out?
There is every reason to believe Ronnie Hillman will lead the Broncos’ backfield this week, and no one is going to want to take that risk on their tourney teams.
We know with 100% certainty that Darren McFadden is cheap and will be on the field almost the entire game for the Cowboys, yet the fact that he is Darren McFadden and the fact that he is facing the Seahawks means his ownership will be a whole lot lower than it should be.
We also know that Danny Woodhead is going to be overlooked by more people than should be the case, because he’s not the nominal starter. He’s seeing the field so much, and is seeing red zone work, and if we expect Rivers to pass a ton, that means we have to expect Woodhead to be on the field a lot. Who’s to say Todd Gurley has a better point-per-dollar day than Danny Woodhead?
QUARTERBACKS
Of course, we could create differentiation at quarterback by simply pivoting to Ben Roethlisberger. I really cannot envision a scenario in which Philip Rivers gets shut down by the Ravens, which means I really cannot envision a scenario in which “pivoting to another quarterback in the same general price range” helps you gain an appreciable edge. Roethlisberger is right up there this week with Rivers, though, and everyone seems to be overlooking him. He’s practically a lock for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns; it’s certainly not difficult to like the idea of moving to him.
Another way to create differentiation is to go cheap at quarterback. All the Jameis Winston? I’m slightly afraid the Falcons figure out a way to neutralize Mike Evans, which shouldn’t be extraordinarily difficult given that Evans is their only offensive weapon this week and Dan Quinn is a great defensive mind. If the Falcons manage to take Evans out of the game, that would certainly limit the upside Winston has. Still, though. Shootout? Probably. Lots of passing? Probably. Chance for a big game at a low price and low ownership? Definitely – there is definitely a chance.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Somehow, between the “main receiver” each of those quarterbacks will be relying on, the guy who is supposedly “the most reliable fantasy wide receiver in football” is the one going overlooked. Antonio Brown differentiation for the win? Brown has seen double-digit targets in 16 of Roethlisberger’s last 18 games (with nine targets in the other two games), and he seems like the most “must-play” option of the week to me. The fact that no one else seems to really be talking about him makes me wonder what I might be missing, though. I haven’t found anything to indicate I’m missing something, and there is a good chance I put in more weekly research time than any other DFS writer out there, right? So why not trust my research?
Same goes for Evans. Sure, it won’t feel good to fade him when he’s the only guy for Jameis to throw to, but it didn’t feel good to recommend (or stick to) the DeAndre Hopkins fade last week, did it? But it still worked out. Jordan: Trust your research!!!
Of course, that’s easy to say when I’m pretty sure about something (Brown as a borderline must-play, Evans as a fade, etc.). But what about when I have no idea how I’m feeling about a guy?
Like Alshon Jeffery. Xavier Rhodes has sucked, but the Vikings still have Harrison Smith at free safety. What, they’re just going to let Alshon run wild on them without using Smith to keep him in check? That seems like an unlikely approach from a defense-savvy team. And yet…it’s Alshon, priced too low, in a game in which he should easily see ten or more targets. One awesome free safety is going to scare you off him?
I also like Steve Smith a lot. But I do this, don’t I? I try to talk myself onto plays that are not actually necessary to make? On FanDuel, sure, Smith is just plain priced too low. But what about on DraftKings? Alshon is only $300 more than Smith, so even if Jason Verrett has not quite played up to his talent this year (and even if the absence of Eric Weddle weakens this San Diego secondary), why force in Smith when Alshon is right there? (Why force him in? Maybe because he is pretty much 50% of this entire Ravens’ offense, and if we expect the Chargers to be passing and putting up points, we kind of have to expect the Ravens to be passing in an effort to keep pace.)
DEFENSE
Another place to differentiate this week is by paying down at defense. Obviously, there is a reason the Rams are the chalk play yet again; they have – by far – the highest likelihood of holding their opponent in check and of racking up sacks and interceptions along the way. But defensive touchdowns are where we really get our points from a defense. Any team can get a defensive touchdown. What about going cheap with the Saints? They’ve been creating turnovers this year, and if Delvin Breaux can take out Odell Beckham (he can), this could force Eli Manning into mistakes. Or heck, what about the 49ers, even? Nick Foles is good for one or two interceptions, even if the Rams keep him under 30 passes.
The Cowboys have Greg Hardy and the Seahawks have no offensive line and have been getting demolished by solid pass rushes. The Titans have a rookie quarterback, and the Texans have J.J. Watt attacking him. Heck, even the Titans could make for a solid defensive play; it’s not like Brian Hoyer is going to light the world on fire – especially with Alfred Blue getting stuffed on the ground each time he takes the ball.
RUNNING BACKS
I also need to remember that I love talking myself off plays that novice DFSers will gravitate toward. One play novice DFSers will probably like (yet again) this week is Doug Martin. Martin has been on fire, and the Falcons have given up some solid games to running backs. Most novice players will like Martin; most sharp players will peg Martin as a fade. And yet…is he actually a fade? In his last three games, he has seen target totals of three, three, and five, and carry totals of 19, 24, and 20. How certain are we, really, that the Falcons are just going to shred the Bucs? I could see this game staying close enough for long enough that Martin still gets 18 carries, and if the game gets out of hand, I’m not so certain Charles Sims will take over all the touches. Maybe Martin is not such a “fish” play after all.
If I really, really wanted to “go contrarian,” I could pay up at running back, as I don’t think most people will be able to pay up at many places this week, as there is just not a whole lot of value…
WIDE RECEIVERS
But I don’t want to “go contrarian” that badly. Because, honestly, I like many of the cheaper RB options, and I think wide receiver is pretty clearly the place to pay up. If people want to fade the higher-priced wide receivers this week to fit in Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell, they can be my guest.
“To Julio” or “To DeAndre,” that is the question. (Sorry, Shakespeare.)
Julio Jones should see plenty of targets this week against the Bucs with Leonard Hankerson likely out.
DeAndre Hopkins should see plenty of targets this week with Arian Foster once again out. Also, Perrish Cox is likely to be out again this Sunday for the Titans, which means DeAndre against Blidi Wreh-Wilson. Yes, please.
I don’t think we can really go wrong with either guy. I think, however, that paying up for Antonio Brown and one of these two is the best way to go. The question then becomes: can you fit in a truly great team around them, or are you sacrificing too much elsewhere just to get in these two guys?
There’s also the whole thing of Keenan Allen averaging 12 targets per game. Uh, yeah. Crazy thing? Especially on DraftKings, Allen, Woodhead, and Ladarius Green could all pay off their salary in the same game. Talk about a mega-stack…
But that’s just dumb, right?
Right?
TIGHT ENDS
I guess that leads us to look at tight ends, but what is there to really even look at? If Austin Seferian-Jenkins plays, plug him into your DFS tournament lineups… right? That’s the way it seems, at least; especially if I expect Evans to get a ton of attention on one side and for Desmond Trufant to shut down the other side, that leaves us with ASJ and the running backs as the only place for Jameis to look.
If ASJ doesn’t play, plug Ladarius Green into cash games and tournaments… right? That’s the way it seems, at least – Ladarius in cash games either way, and in tourneys if ASJ is out. He’s still priced way too cheap as a guy who is likely to see six or seven targets and has great red zone upside.
I guess we could revisit the “differentiation discussion.” Who is really going to be able to find a way to pay up for Greg Olsen on DraftKings (while still building a good team around him) with so little to pay down for at other positions (and so much to like paying down for at tight end)? That makes him a strong option as the only guy Cam Newton can rely on through the air. And on FanDuel, Olsen is really too cheap, and may still go overlooked as people look to “save money at the position.”
Tyler Eifert? Jordan, why do you want to roster Eifert? Because you genuinely think he’s a solid play, or because you’re scared he’ll have one of his blowup games and you don’t want to miss it? The guy has two huge games; in his other four games, he has not seen more than five targets. Think twice before you tie your lineup to a guy seeing such inconsistent usage.
QUARTERBACKS
Yes, I know I have not yet mentioned Andy Dalton. I know, I know, I know. I’ve been excited about him coming off bye and hopefully still being priced too low on DraftKings and being a great value once again. But… well… it’s just that everything on this offense is so unreliable. There are so many weapons through the air and on the ground, I have a hard time trusting Dalton on DraftKings when Rivers is right there above him, and I have a hard time trusting Dalton on FanDuel where he’s priced like a top-tier guy. And he is a top-tier guy this year – no doubt about that. It’s just: 34, 26, 32, 24, 44, 33. Those are his pass attempt totals through his first six games, and outside of that 44-pass game in a big comeback against the Seahawks, we’re really stuck relying on him continuing to be incredibly efficient with a limited number of opportunities in order for him to produce a big game. I don’t expect the solid run to end…but I also think it’s a riskier play than it seems on the surface.
I know, I know, I know. Don’t overthink things, right? But that’s what I’m seeing, and if Dalton is going to be highly-owned, too, I just don’t see how using him over Rivers provides much of an edge.
WIDE RECEIVERS
That brings us back to more Bengals weapons. A.J. Green has hit double-digit targets just twice each year. That’s quite a price to have to pay to roster him in the hopes he manages some monstrous efficiency.
I keep wanting to talk myself off Brandon Marshall, but there is really no need. The Raiders have played better pass defense than the narrative suggests, but they’re still not good. Why not go with a guy averaging ten targets per game and putting up huge production when he has the chances?
Let’s wrap up my wide receiver thoughts. Shall we? Let’s hit an obvious name, then some less obvious guys who are risks with some upside.
“There’s nowhere to pay down this week. There’s nowhere to pay down this week.” Yeah, I keep saying that. Um, Jordan, what about Stefon Diggs?
Okay, yes. Stefon Diggs. Go there. Lock him in your lineup. Don’t feel great about it, because the Vikings just don’t throw the ball a whole lot, but who cares! It’s the right play, and it’s probably not a play you will end up regretting. Enjoy the savings and stop trying to force yourself off of Diggs (translation: do the opposite of what I keep doing myself).
Marvin Jones: Every week, it seems, someone on the Bengals sees double-digit targets. It’s been Jones once before; it could be Jones once again. Even if it isn’t, he has a shot at a solid game.
Rueben Randle: Step 1) Breaux takes out Beckham; Step 2) Eli has to look to Roob more; Step 3) Roob has a huge game. It may happen, it may not. Sometimes this works, sometimes it doesn’t. Rueben Randle is really not all that good at football, but if he gets the targets, he may be able to produce.
Michael Floyd: We’ll know by Sunday morning if John Brown is playing this week. If he’s not, why not roll with Floyd? He could see seven or eight targets, and he’s ridiculously cheap, and he has a whole lot of upside. Heck, even Jaron Brown could slide in as a viable play if Brown is unable to go.
QUARTERBACKS
What more is there to mumble about?
I like Philip Rivers. I like Philip Rivers.
I like Philip Rivers
Trust what you like, Jordan…
Or don’t. You still have until Sunday to talk yourself off him and ruin your teams as a result.
RUNNING BACKS
All the Gurley fade?
I don’t know.
Doug Martin for the win?
I have no idea.
Ronnie Hillman for low ownership and monster upside?
Sheesh.
I stand by what I said already: play Gurley in cash games.
In tourneys, though, committing to the Gurley fade could really open things up. And that alone could create enough differentiation that if Gurley has a mediocre game and you pick the right pivot, you could soar past a good 40% or 50% of the field right away.
But then, sometimes the chalk is the chalk for a reason…
Heck, all that and I did not even mention Chris Ivory. He’ll get plenty of run against the Raiders.
All that and I did not even come to a conclusion on what I want to do this week.
Todd Gurley, Justin Forsett, Doug Martin, Ronnie Hillman, Danny Woodhead, Darren McFadden. What’s a guy to do?
Can you discern who I like the most? Can you help me in the comments by telling me which way I am leaning? – because I sure cannot seem to figure it out on my own.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Take some time, my friend. Pace. Mumble under your breath.
Sort through your thoughts.
Pull everything apart, and by Saturday, start putting it all back together. When it’s all said and done, you’ll have a great team leading you into the weekend. When it’s all said and done, you’ll be on your way to the top of the leaderboards.
I’ll meet up with you there – just as soon as I pace and mumble some more and figure all this out.