10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, April 5th

Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, April 5th.

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1. Here’s the complete list of pitchers (min. 140 IP) who, since July 22nd, 2017, have maintained strikeout rates above 28 percent and hard-hit rates below 30 percent: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Charlie Morton, and … Collin McHugh. The date may seem arbitrary, but it’s not: July of 2017 is when McHugh began throwing his slider, a pitch that he’s already established as one of the best in the game. Batters have managed a microscopic .116 average and .163 slugging against the pitch over the past two seasons. (And it’s interesting that Charlie Morton cracked the above list along with McHugh, as McHugh could very easily become the next Morton on Houston’s staff: A veteran guy who’s bounced around yet found success in Houston once he started relying on a good breaking pitch more heavily.). McHugh continued the trend into his first start of the year, throwing a career-high 33 sliders. He threw his slider 33 times in the first start of the season; here’s hoping he throws it just as often against the Athletics. While it’s a bit startling to see McHugh as the priciest option on a Friday night slate, he really is worth the price.

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2. Since the start of 2017, there are 66 pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched. Nick Pivetta might be the unluckiest of the entire bunch. Take a look at how he ranks in a few important stats:

65th in LOB% (68%)
66th in BABIP (.331)
64th in HR/FB (17.2%)

Pivetta has been trying the patience of of his DFS defenders for a while now, but all of these are metrics should, to some degree, regress in Pivetta’s favor over the long haul. To be clear: Pivetta was knocked around in his first start of the year, allowing four earned runs without making it out of the fifth. But take a look at the BABIP: .438. The guy just can’t catch a break. His price is reduced all the way to $7,700 at DraftKings, which puts him squarely into cash game consideration in a road matchup with the Twins.

3. Pitchers with a 9+ K/9, sub-2.0 BB/9 in their first season (min. 100 IP): Roy Oswalt, Masahiro Tanaka, Noah Syndergaard, and … Shane Bieber. Perhaps the latest of the Indians’ never-ending factory of dominant arms, Bieber will toe the rubber as a starter for the first time in 2019 on Friday. As it happens, he finds himself in what is fast becoming the best matchups in DFS in the Blue Jays. Aided by the Jays’ anemic offense, six different starters have posted 19+ DraftKings points against them. These guys range from the elite (Trevor Bauer), to the potentially elite (Matthew Boyd), to the farthest-you-can-get-from-elite (Andrew Cashner, Matt Moore, David Hess, Jordan Zimmermann). As with McHugh, “Bieber” is not a name one expects to see at the top of the DraftKings pitcher pool. But he is a guy who is going to throw strikes, and given the plus matchup (which may get even better if Justin Smoak misses again, as he did Thursday with a stiff neck), Bieber is neck-and-neck with McHugh as one of the top options on the slate.

4. In his MLB debut, Trent Thornton became just one of two players ever to record 8 strikeouts while issuing no walks or earned runs in an MLB debut, joining Nick Kingham just last year. You might think, “Well, that was Detroit.” My rebuttal: Well, he gets Cleveland minus Francisco Lindor and (possibly) Jose Ramirez this time, which makes Detroit’s lineup look like the Murderers’ Row (I’ll try to limit the ancient baseball references, but I’m in the middle of binging Ken Burns’ “Baseball” documentary series on Amazon…gimme a break). For a guy who most DFS players (myself included) had not heard of literally a week ago, it feels risky rostering Thornton. And maybe it is; he only threw 75 pitches in his first start despite being in total control throughout the game. But he’s the lowest-priced pitcher on the slate, and at two-pitcher sites, that matters. If nothing else, he warrants some tournament consideration.

5. Bryce Harper is laughing at anyone who thought his signing so late in free agency would cause him to get off to a slow start. He’s been, let’s just say, impressive in his first week in a Phillies uniform. He’s also one of the top overall plays of the day on Friday. A few quick notes on Harper:

— Harper is averaging 103 mph on batted balls this year; the next-best player in terms of average exit velocity (J.D. Davis, of all people) is at 97.9 mph.

— He’s already got an MLB-leading four hits of 110 mph or greater. Last year, Rhys Hoskins had four batted balls of 110+ mph all year. A few others who had fewer than four batted balls of 110+ mph over the entire 2018 season: Justin Smoak (3), Miguel Andujar (3), Edwin Encarnacion (3), Charlie Blackmon (2), Michael Conforto (2), Mookie Betts (2), Nicholas Castellanos (2).

— He crushes four-seam fastballs, ranking fifth in MLB with a .478 wOBA against the pitch since 2017. That’s important for this slate, since Jake Odorizzi essentially abandoned his slider in favor of more four-seamers in his first start of the season. Odorizzi relied on his four-seamer nearly two-thirds of the time in that start against the Indians, and to great success (11 strikeouts, just 1 earned run). If he throws that many four-seamers against this Phillies offense, he could be in trouble. But it’s not just Harper…

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6. Rhys Hoskins feasts on four-seamers as well. Since his call-up on August 10, 2017, Hoskins has posted a .323 ISO against the pitch, a mark that ranks seventh-best in MLB over that stretch. I love the idea of leveraging the recency bias that may come with Odorizzi’s successful first start of the season and stacking up Phillies. If you go that route, be sure to pay the $4,600 asking price at DraftKings and fit Hoskins into your stack.

7. In 2018, only one hitter in MLB posted a contact rate higher than 90 percent: Michael Brantley. Brantley’s contact skills seem firmly in place in 2019, as his 94.7 percent contact rate is third-best in MLB. A high-contact hitter like Brantley is exactly the type of player to anchor a cash game lineup; even if he’s unlikely to break the slate, he puts the ball in play so often that he’s extremely unlikely to put up a zero. On Friday, he feels a bit too cheap at DraftKings at just $4,200, and he’ll have the platoon edge over Oakland right-hander Frankie Montas.

8. Somewhat quietly, Shin-Soo Choo had 45 barrels in 2018; that mark tied him with Bryce Harper for 25th-most in MLB, and it’s 20 more than his teammate Rougned Odor, who seems to be much more popular of a play in DFS. Choo is priced below $4,000 at DraftKings on Friday, and he should bat leadoff in a winnable matchup against Angels right-hander Felix Pena. While the park downgrade to Angels Stadium isn’t ideal, Choo is just too cheap given the matchup and his combination of on-base skills and sneaky power. He’ll likely be a popular cash game option tonight.

9. It’s obviously still way too early to draw any real conclusions, but as of now, Joey Gallo has really improved in terms of plate discipline. He’s cut his chase rate in half (29.2% in 2018; 14.3% in 2019), and his 74.3% zone contact rating would be the best of his career if the season ended today (and yes, I’m fully aware of how absurd the phrase “if the season ended today” sounds on April 5th). Like Choo, Gallo has the platoon edge against an average pitcher on Friday. Unlike Choo, the park downgrade probably does’t matter, because if Gallo gets hold of one, it can leave any park. He’s $4,700, which isn’t cheap, but he’s one of the best tournament plays on the board.

10. Adam Frazier posted a .179 ISO to go along with a low 15.1% strikeout rate last year. That’s not as common as you might think: Only 13 other players did it last year. There’s nothing overly exciting about rostering Frazier, but his combination of good plate skills, sneaky power, and even a bit of speed (he swiped his second bag of the year last night) make him an easy plug-and-play in cash games at the second base position. At just $3,800 at DraftKings, he’s a low-cost, high-floor option that can free up the salary to pay for upside at other spots (I’m looking at you, Mike Trout…).
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.