10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, August 24th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, August 24th.
Friday, August 24th
1. While Carlos Carrasco’s home/road splits have been well documented, he’s not the only Indians pitcher who excels when outside of Progressive Field: Mike Clevinger has been elite on the road this year with a 2.75 ERA and .284 wOBA. Here’s the short list of the pitchers in MLB (min. 60 IP) to match those numbers on the road: Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Trevor Bauer, Chris Sale, Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander. In his last start, Clevinger dominated a woeful Orioles offense, going seven scoreless while striking out seven in the process. He was the chalk SP1 in that game, and he’ll likely be very popular again on Friday, as he faces a punchless Royals offense in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. There are certainly some elite bats worth paying up for, but Clevinger feels like such a lock for a solid outing that he’s the logical place to begin cash game lineup construction.
2. Take a look at Mike Foltynewicz’s walk rate by month this year:
March/April – 11.3%
May – 11.5%
June – 8.9%
July – 8.9%
August – 5.8%
So, all of these individual months are small samples, but it is nice to see a steady progression downward, culminating Foltynewicz blanking the Rockies over seven innings while striking out nine and not issuing a single walk in his last start. In the past, the frequent walks have limited Foltynewicz to five innings, maybe six if everything breaks right. If he continues limiting the walks, he could take the next step towards being a more reliable option for DFS purposes. On Friday, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board, but the floor for 20+ DraftKings points feels liked on given his matchup with the hapless Marlins (.294 team wOBA vs. RHPs this year, third-worst in MLB).
3. Zack Godley has a 27.6 percent strikeout rate and a 50.0 percent ground ball rate since July 6th; the only other pitchers with that combination of whiffs and ground balls over that span are Carlos Carrasco, Patrick Corbin, and German Marquez. After scuffling for much of the early part of the year, Godley has reclaimed his spot as a guy who can provide a safe floor due to the ground balls and a reasonable ceiling with his strikeouts. Godley has posted 20+ DraftKings points in three of his last four (with the one flop, unexpectedly, coming in an elite matchup against the Padres in his last start). His price tag of $8,500 is more than reasonable, even in a difficult matchup against the Mariners, who are a roughly average offense against righties (102 wRC+) but who are stingy with the strikeouts (20.2% K rate vs. RHP is sixth-lowest in MLB). Given his recent form and the affordable price tag, I’m willing to take a chance on Godley in tournaments, and possibly even as an SP2 in cash games.
4. Over his last six starts since the All-Star break, Alex Cobb has a 2.03 ERA and a 52.0 percent ground ball rate, numbers matched only by two other pitchers in MLB over that span: Clayton Kershaw and (the pitcher Cobb actually resembles on the list) Brett Anderson. Cobb, who was abysmal to begin the year, has really turned things around from a run prevention perspective. The reasons for his improvement aren’t hard to discern: he’s simply throwing his best, his splitter, pitch more often. From the beginning of the season to the All-Star break (17 starts), Cobb threw his splitter 15.6 percent of the time; in the six starts since, he’s thrown 38.2 percent splitters. Of course, there is the issue of the strikeouts: since the break, his 15.7 percent strikeout rate ranks 90th of 106 pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched. The real selling point, though, and the reason Cobb is even being discussed, is his price tag. At just $5,200 at DraftKings, and in a matchup with an injury-riddled Yankees squad, Cobb deserves consideration in cash games. There’s risk, for sure; Camden Yards is a nightmare of a park for pitchers, and Giancarlo Stanton is always lurking in the middle of the lineup. But this is a pitcher who has a history of inducing weak contact and grounders, and he’s simply too cheap. That may be enough on a weak slate for pitching.
5. Since the All-Star break, Dereck Rodriguez has a 1.35 ERA (fourth-best in MLB), a .140 batting average allowed (best in MLB), a 0.86 WHIP. But that’s where the good news stops. Because Dereck Rodriguez also has the highest hard-hit rate in MLB (48.8%) and the lowest BABIP (.176) of any qualified pitcher since the break. These two things cannot coincide forever. It certainly wouldn’t be shocking to see Rodriguez to luck into another solid start on Friday; he is pitching in arguably the best pitcher’s park in baseball, and he’s maximized the advantage that comes with his home park this year (1.89 ERA, .242 wOBA allowed at home). And the Rangers are a strikeout-heavy team (24.8% vs. RHPs this year) taking a major park downgrade. But…that price tag. Rodriguez being priced over $10,000 at DraftKings plus the looming regression makes him an easy fade, even in tournaments.
6. Matt Carpenter has barreled up an incredible 48 balls this year; for context, that’s just four fewer than Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado combined, and they play half their games at Coors. Carpenter has slowed down a bit from his torrid early-August pace, but even so, he’s an obvious cash game anchor. This was a hitter we were happy to pay over $5,000 at much worse ballpark, and now he gets to take his hacks against Antonio Senzatela at Coors Field. Find a way to fit him into your cash games.
7. Speaking of Senzatela, the Rockies right-hander throws his four-seam fastball 67.6 percent of the time, third-most in MLB among starters (min. 750 pitches), a fact that should have Jedd Gyorko salivating. Gyorko has crushed four-seamers since 2017 to the tune of a .571 slugging percentage, a mark that ranks 26th-best in MLB (min. 250 results) since 2017, just ahead of George Springer (.570), Mike Trout (.569), Jose Abreu (.568), and even his teammate Matt Carpenter (.566). Gyorko, like all of the Cardinals, has gotten the Coors Field price bump, and he’s tough to squeeze into cash game lineups at $4,700. But given his success against Senzatela’s primary pitch, he makes for a fantastic tournament play who shouldn’t be as popular as many of the other Coors bats.
8. As a minor-leaguer, Ronald Acuna hit 30 home runs in 259 minor league games. As a big-leaguer, Ronald Acuna has 21 home runs in 76 games. Acuna has unlocked some serious power since being called up, and it just feels like the exception when he doesn’t go yard. Look: Acuna is expensive, he’s in a bad park, and he’s absolutely going to slow down sooner or later. If we’re going by the book, he’s probably not a great DFS play. But Dan Straily has allowed 44 percent hard hits and a 1.80 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this year, and there’s only one other qualified pitcher in MLB to allow that combo to righties: Bartolo Colon. After Straily exits, Acuna gets to face the bullpen with the third-worst SIERA in MLB (4.30).
And then of course, #Revenge is still lingering in the air at Marlins Park, with Acuna being hit again after homering last night. If Acuna goes yard again tonight, it could get ugly…
9. Lorenzo Cain has a .300 average and 20 or more steals in four of five seasons since 2014; the only other player with four such seasons over that span is Jose Altuve, and only eight players even have as many as two such seasons. At only $4,100 at DraftKings, Cain continues to be several hundred dollars underpriced given his on-base skills and stolen base upside. The matchup isn’t ideal: Joe Musgrove has held righties in check with just a .257 wOBA allowed this year. Even so, I really like Cain as a one-off tournament play hitting atop a potent Brewers offense.
10. And while we’re on the subjet of underpriced Milwaukee bats, Mike Moustakas gets absolutely no love from the DraftKings algorithm at just $3,800. Against right-handed pitching this year, Moustakas has a strikeout rate below 16 percent, a fly ball rate above 46 percent, and a hard-hit rate above 44 percent; the only other player who can match those numbers is Mookie Betts. Putting the ball in play a lot, hitting the ball in the air, and hitting the ball hard is generally a good recipe for home runs, especially in a great hitter’s environment like Miller Park. Moustakas hasn’t homered since August 7th, but Joe Musgrove is not nearly the pitcher against lefties that he is against righties, as his .327 wOBA allowed and low 14.7 percent strikeout rate attest. It feels like a Moustakas homer barrage is coming soon, and it could start on Friday.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!