10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, May 4th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, May 4th.
Friday, May 4th
1. In his last start, Gerrit Cole mowed down the Athletics, strikeout out 12 batters. It was the fourth time this year that he had fanned at least 11 batters, making him the first pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2000 with four games of 11+ strikeouts in the month of April. And not only that; Cole limited the damage in April, as well, combining a 13.18 K/9 with a 1.73 ERA. The list of pitchers in MLB history to match those figures in any single month is pretty short: Scherzer, Kluber, Sale, Strasburg, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Kerry Wood, Dwight Gooden. Once again on Friday (as it seems has happened every time he’s taken the mound), Cole finds himself as the only truly elite option on the slate, meaning his ownership should be through the roof. But that doesn’t mean he’s a bad play. The D-backs strike out at a healthy 24.4% clip against right-handed pitchers, and while it’s always tough to bank on double-digit punchouts, Cole’s upside is unparalleled on Friday’s slate.
2. Speaking of upside, J.A. Happ has it…which is not something I ever expected to type in 2018. At the ripe, old age of 35, Happ has figured out how to strike out batters in bunches by elevating his four-seam fastball. In fact, Happ has become one of two Blue Jays ever – joining Roger Clemens and A.J. Burnett – to earn eight or more strikeouts in five consecutive games. While it feels like Happ’s newfound strikeout abilities could disappear at a moment’s notice once the league catches up (“He’s not throwing it that fast…just swing higher!”, says anonymous hitting coach), and while Happ’s price tag is getting out of hand, there’s no denying he’s right there alongside Cole as one of the top arms on the slate. It seems impossible to justify him in cash games, but for tournaments, against a very whiff-able Rays team (24.0% K rate vs. LHP this year), Happ could easily extend his streak and reach eight strikeouts for the sixth straight game.
3. In 2017, Rick Porcello started 33 games and reached 24 DraftKings points on three occasions; in 2018, Porcello has started six games and already reached 24 DraftKings points on four occasions. Porcello’s career arc has been a bizarre one, going from promising 20-year-old big-leaguer, to Cy Young winner, to total gas can, to what he is in 2018, which appears to be an effective, rosterable starter, at least in the right matchups. He’s altered his pitch mix trading his four-seamer for more sinkers, sliders, and changeups, and the change appears to be working. On Friday, he faces the Rangers, who touched up David Price on Thursday night, but who also strike out 25.1% of the time (fourth-most in MLB) and possess an 87 wRC+ (ranked 24th in MLB) against right-handers this season. As with Happ, it’s a bit tough to pull the trigger on a pitcher who was so volatile just last season. However, Porcello should have no trouble keeping his success going against this terrible offense, last night’s 11 runs not withstanding.
4. Jose Berrios is the only player in MLB since 2017 (min. 100 IP) with a strikeout rate above 24.0% and a hard-hit rate below 24.0% against righties. He’s just dominated righties. If you need more evidence, consider this: he’s struck out 20 righties this year and walked just one. All of this matters because on Friday, he’ll face a White Sox lineup that could include five or six right-handed bats. If that’s the case, Berrios becomes one of the better point-per-dollar options at pitcher, viable for both cash games and tournaments.
5. Chris Tillman, Ty Blach, Doug Fister, Kendall Graveman, Brandon McCarthy. What do these pitchers have in common? Well, none of them are very good. But besides that, their swinging strike rates are all higher than the 5.5% mark posted by Walker Buehler in his first two starts of the season. To be clear: Buehler is in a perfect matchup against the Padres, he can throw the ball really hard, and, by all accounts, he has a bright future ahead of him. And he’ll probably have a good game here, which certainly puts him in consideration for cash games. But he’s shown that, like many young pitchers, he can be inefficient with his pitch count, needing 34 and 26 pitches to get through the first innings of each of his two games. With a swinging strike rate this low, he won’t continue getting a strikeout per inning for very long, and there is risk involved here. If ownership feels like it’s getting out of hand (which it can, with young, hyped prospects), I’m perfectly fine fading Buehler in tournaments.
6. After blasting another home run last night, his 10th of the year, Ozzie Albies now has 16 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and an .853 OPS, and he’s still 21 years old. Here is the complete list of players in the since 1990 to post those numbers before their 22nd birthday: Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, and Mike Trout. There may not be a more fun mini-stack in DFS than the Albies/Acuna mini-stack atop the Braves order, and the fact that it won’t come cheap makes it even more interesting for tournaments. San Francisco’s Chris Stratton has had his moments this season, but with the Braves sporting an implied run total of 4.73 runs (fifth-highest on the slate), getting low-owned exposure to the top of the order – throwing in “Free Money” Freddie Freeman, of course – is a great way to start a tournament lineup and see what pieces fit around these high-priced Braves.
7. Since 2017, no hitter has a higher expected weighted on-base against right-handed curveballs than Anthony Rizzo (.473). That’s significant, as he’ll take on Miles Mikolas, who throws a curve 26.5% of the time against lefties this year, nearly as much as his fastball (31.6%). Rizzo has been fairly unlucky this season – something tells me the .175 BABIP won’t hold – but with home runs in back-to-back games, he may be turning it around. The first base position seems surprisingly tough on Friday, without any slam dunk options at the high end, which puts Rizzo in play, especially as an intriguing tournament one-off.
8. Since last August, Jed Lowrie has been on another level. Case in point: since August 1, 2017, he’s one of four players with a sub-15.0% strikeout rate and a .389 wOBA (min. 300 PA); the others are Joey Votto, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez. He’s got 16 games of 10 or more DraftKings points, tying Aaron Judge and Ozzie Albies for most of any player in MLB. At $4,500 at DraftKings, Lowrie may be too rich for cash games, and there are certainly better point-per-dollar plays on the slate. But an Athletics stack against Andrew Cashner (still can’t believe that guy was traded for Anthony Rizzo) is super interesting, and if you build one, be sure to include Lowrie.
9. Take a look at the top five players in isolated power in their home ballparks since 2017 (one of the them is not like the others):
Aaron Judge (.406)
Mike Trout (.365)
Charlie Blackmon (.354)
Giancarlo Stanton (.334)
Eugenio Suarez (.323)
Suarez clearly benefits from playing half his games at Great American Ball Park, and on Friday, he’s at home agianst a mediocre lefty in Miami’s Wei-Yin Chen. It’s a little jarring to see Suarez priced only amongst higher-profile players like Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Josh Donaldson, but he’s got a great shot at homering, which makes him a fantastic tournament one-off.
10. There have been seven games of 4+ home runs allowed by a pitcher this year, and Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin is responsible for two of them. His 1.86 HR/9 since the start of last season ranks 47th of 48 qualified pitchers, just behind James Shields. Through four starts this year, he has a FIP of 10.01. I’m burying the lede by putting this at #10, but here goes: play the Yankees on Friday. Play Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez. Play Didi Gregorius. They’re all good, and Josh Tomlin is very bad, so play them.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!