10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 15th
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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Thursday, June 15th.
1. Chris Sale currently leads the majors with a 16.0% swinging strike rate. If that holds, he’ll be just one of two qualified starters to eclipse the 16.0% mark since FanGraphs began tracking swinging strikes in 2002. The other? Randy Johnson, who posted a 16.3% mark in 2002. (And yeah, “if that holds” is a big “if” on June 14th, but Sale has posted SwStr% marks of 17.3% in each of the past two games – he’s not exactly slowing down). As the lone elite arm taking the hill on Thursday, Sale should be rostered in 100 percent of cash game lineups, especially considering his matchup with the Phillies, who do have sneaky power against lefties (185 ISO, sixth-highest in MLB) but are overall a poor offense against them, with an 85 wRC+ that ranks 23rd in MLB. Fire Sale up in your cash games and tournaments and let others make the mistake of overthinking it.
2. Jordan Montgomery will almost assuredly see a lineup of all right-handed bats against Oakland on Thursday; Jordan Montgomery does not care. He’s one of two left-handed pitchers with a 23.5% or higher strikeout rate, a .287 or lower wOBA, and a 25.6% or lower hard hit rate to right-handed hitters; the other is Alex Wood. At two-pitcher sites, the story of Thursday’s slate is going to be finding the right SP2 to pair with Sale. Montgomery is reasonably priced across the industry, and he provides upside. The Athletics strike out at a 25.4% clip against lefties, fourth-highest in MLB, and he’s got a decent chance to get the win bonus, since Aaron Judge is going to hit four home runs (or at least one home run really, really far).
3. Here are the pitchers with the six lowest isolated power marks allowed to left-handed hitters since 2016 (min. 57 IP), in descending order: Clayton Kershaw (.105), Robbie Ray (.103), Jon Lester (.101), Lance McCullers (.096), Michael Fulmer (.096), Gio Gonzalez (.071). Gio Gonzalez has been heads and shoulders (or at least .025 points) better than the rest of Major League Baseball at limiting extra-base hits to lefties over the past two seasons. And what makes the Mets dangerous? The left-handed power of guys like Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, and Neil Walker (who is a switch hitter, but who has more power as a lefty). The Mets obviously aren’t going to roll out a lefty-heavy lineup against Gonzalez. But it is worth monitoring (and if you don’t get the lineup alerts on the RotoGrinders mobile app, you’re really doing it wrong), and if even a few lefties make the lineup, Gonzalez could enter the conversation as a worthy SP2 alongside Montgomery.
4. Brandon Crawford and Tyler Chatwood have both played 20 games at Coors Field since 2015. Take a look at their numbers during that stretch:
| Stat | Crawford | Chatwood |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .179 | .219 |
| OPS | .438 | .483 |
| K% | 22.4% | 10.1% |
Yikes. Obviously, I’m cherry-picking stats here a bit: Crawford’s .071 ISO dwarfs Chatwood’s .000 mark…but is still lower than Tyler Anderson’s .094 mark during the same period. So, Crawford has inexplicably struggled at Coors Field. But that’s just bad luck, right? Not according to Statcast, which claims that, even with exit velocity and launch angle factored in and the bad luck factored out, Crawford still owns a .259 xwOBA (sixth-worst of the 55 players with at least 50 at-bats during that stretch). Crawford has been a poor hitter at Coors, and while the sample is small enough that he shouldn’t be totally disregarded (especially given the weakness of the shortstop position), his recent struggles are a reason for pause.
5. On the flip side, Brandon Belt crushes Coors; of the 54 players with at least 50 at-bats there since 2015, Belt’s 1.211 OPS and .437 xwOBA both rank first.
6. Since 2015, here are the top four in isolated power against left-handed pitching: Giancarlo Stanton (.430), Trevor Story (.322), Nelson Cruz (.321), and … Wilmer Flores (.312). Now, here are the strikeout rates for each of those hitters: Stanton (27.0%), Story (33.3%), Cruz (21.3%), Flores (12.3%). Flores is $2,900 at DraftKings, and his second-base eligibility there means you’re not forced to choose between him and Arenado, who is one of the top overall plays of the slate (and of course, at FantasyDraft you can fit in whatever hitters you want).
7. Miguel Cabrera hasn’t hit a home run in 21 games; with one more homerless game, he’ll tie his career-high for longest streak of games with at least three plate appearances and no home runs. DraftKings is tempting you with his $3,400 price tag, but Cabrera just hasn’t been performing. The hard hits are still there (44.3% against RHP), but his career-low 31.0% ground ball rate against righties says that a matchup with Alex Cobb (high .342 wOBA and 35.5 Hard%, but also a high 50.7% ground ball rate against RHB) is far from optimal.
8. Against right-handed batters, Zach Davies relies primarily on his two-seam fastball, a pitch that has generated just a 2.69% swinging strike rate this year (in other words, lefties have had no trouble making contact). Since 2016, Matt Carpenter has a .493 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs, which is tied with Carlos Santana for best in MLB among players with at least 100 batted ball events. Carpenter has raised his fly ball rate against righties every year since 2013, and his current 51.6% rate is third-highest in MLB, trailing only Joey Gallo and Ryan Schimpf. Carpenter is in an excellent spot to send one deep, and his price tag is still fairly cheap across the industry given his skill set.
9. The MLB leader in wRC+ against lefties this year isn’t Nolan Arenado, or Kris Bryant, or even Aaron Judge – it’s Ryon Healy, who has a crazy (and let’s be honest, a totally unsustainable) 223 wRC+ against southpaws this year. He’s hitting a home run every 10 at-bats against them, and on Thursday, he faces Jordan Montgomery, who has allowed a high 44.8% fly ball rate. I mentioned Montgomery’s ability to limit the hard contact earlier, and while Montgomery is my favorite SP2 option on the slate, I expect him to be popular. If you’re fading Montgomery, Healy makes for an interesting leverage play against the likely high ownership.
10. Mookie Betts had another four-hit game last night (including two homers), his fourth of the season, which leads the majors. It was also his 87th multi-hit game since last season, which is also tops in MLB. He has exactly one strikeout in his last 10 games. On Thursday, he faces Nick Pivetta, who has almost as many earned runs (15) as innings pitched (16 ⅔) to righties this year. While it’ll be tough to fit in too many high-end bats in Sale lineups, most will gravitate towards the pricier bats at Coors Field, meaning Betts (and the rest of the Red Sox) could see slightly lower ownership than usual. He’s a fantastic option as a one-off or as part of a Red Sox stack.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!