10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Sunday, August 10th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Sunday, August 10th.
1. Justin Verlander is one of six pitchers in MLB history with three consecutive games of 10+ strikeouts and 3 or fewer hits…and he’s the only player with two such streaks in a career. Check it out, per the Play Index at Baseball Reference:
Gifted with an excellent matchup against the Orioles (87 wRC+ against righties, ranked 24th in MLB), Verlander has a real shot at being the first pitcher ever to do it in four straight. Over the last three games, he’s struck out 49.3 percent of batters. That’s something he’s never, EVER done over a three-game stretch. Here’s a graph from FanGraphs to illustrate:
Verlander is somehow peaking at the age of 36. There’s plenty of depth in the pitching pool on Sunday, so you can be forgiven for taking the savings and looking elsewhere (especially given the huge park downgrade to power-friendly Camden Yards and Verlander’s fly ball tendencies), but Verlander against the Orioles is as safe a bet for 10+ strikeouts as we’ve seen this year. If you do want to drop down a bit, consider…
2. Luis Castillo, who has an incredible 121 strikeouts on his changeup in 2019; the pitcher with the next-most (Trevor Richards) has 57 strikeouts on his changeup. Castillo fanned 8 Cubs on the pitch in his last outing against them on July 15th, and it was the fifth time he’d struck out 8+ on the pitch in a game this year, which is especially impressive when you consider that only one other pitcher (Jason Vargas) has struck out 8 batters on his changeup in a game this year. It’s a truly dominant pitch, and it’s the big driver behind Castillo’s breakout 2019 campaign. He combines plenty of strikeouts with plenty of ground balls. In fact, he’s the only pitcher since 2017 with a 26 percent strikeouts and 50 percent ground balls since 2017 (though it’s splitting hairs a bit, as Aaron Nola fell just short with a 49.9% GB rate. That combination allows him to be somewhat matchup-proof.
3. Since 2017, Jacob deGrom has reached 10+ strikeouts against the division-rival Nationals six times; the rest of the pitchers in MLB combined have 9 games of 10+ strikeouts against the Nationals in that span. He’s just owned the Nats, and he has the luxury of facing them at home on Sunday. Taking deGrom at home is about as safe a bet as there is, and the former Cy Young winner has been especially dominant at CitiField as of late; he’s currently riding an eight-game streak of 7+ strikeouts at home. With three truly elite arms at the high end of the pitcher pool, SP1 will be a tough decision on Sunday. If paying all the way up in cash games, Verlander seems like the best bet, but for tournaments, deGrom (not to mention Castillo) are elite options who could easily outscore Verlander, who should garner a bit more ownership.
4. The White Sox have been impossibly bad against right-handed pitchers as of late, with 15 of the last 17 righty starters striking out at least six batters. Some of the luminaries who make the cut: Mike Fiers and Tanner Roark (in the first two games of this series), Spencer Turnbull, Brad Keller, Glenn Sparkman. You get the idea. It’s a stretch dating back to July 13th, when Chris Bassit fanned 6 over 6 shutout innings against the South Siders. For some DFS context, the 16 righties they’ve faced over that span have averaged 27.45 DraftKings points. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. On Sunday, Bassit looks to be the third Oakland starter in a row to have a stellar start against the ChiSox. He’s a bit pricey at DraftKings ($9,100), but he makes a great GPP play where he’s priced more reasonably at FanDuel ($8,000) and Yahoo ($42).
5. Mike Foltynewicz threw 46.5 percent sliders in his first back from the IL; that’s the most he’s ever thrown in a game. He got bitten by the long ball – as many pitchers have against the Twins – by allowing two homers, but he fanned 7 Twins in that start and had a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. One start certainly doesn’t make a trend, and it’s worth noting that Folty has never exceeded 30 percent sliders over a full season. There’s a chance this is just a fluke. But his slider is an electric pitch, and it should yield more strikeouts if he continues to rely on it more heavily. On Sunday, he should have his way with a punchless Marlins team that fans 25.1 percent of the time against righties, sixth-most in MLB. And even better, the home runs shouldn’t be a problem; the Marlins .124 ISO is just a tad lower than the career ISO of Martin Prado (.125). Having reached 101 pitches in his most recent start, pitch count doesn’t seem to be an issue, making Foltynewicz a lock-and-load cash game SP2 given his reasonable price tag at two-pitcher sites ($7,000 at DK; $38 at Yahoo) or a worthy tournament play at FanDuel ($7,700).
6. Last night, Yordan Alvarez hit two bombs, increasing his total to 17 in his first 45 games in MLB. He’s just the fifth player to do that. Here are the players he joins on the list, with their batting averages in parentheses: Gary Sanchez (.333), Rhys Hoskins (.271), Cody Bellinger (.261), and Wally Berger (.329). Alvarez is batting .353 after last night’s contest (when the Astros put up a cool 23 runs…), higher than all the players on the list. On Sunday, he faces Asher Wojciechowski, who has allowed a .385 wOBA and 3.12 HR/9 to lefties this year. It’s a small sample, sure, but it’s no surprise: Wojciechowski is an extreme fly ball pitcher (higher than 50% fly balls to both lefties and righties) pitching in one of the most homer-friendly venues in baseball. Alvarez is priced way up at DraftKings ($5,700), but he’s still a very reasonable $4,200 at FanDuel, where he (along with his fellow Astros) should be extremely chalky. Even so, Alvarez has to be considered one of the top home run specs of the slate against a homer-prone starter and the worst bullpen in MLB.
7. If you haven’t seen J.D. Martinez’s numbers against left-handed pitchers this year, do it. Actually, I’ll save you the trouble. In 119 plate appearances, he’s slashing .404/.479/.885. He’s got a .481 ISO. He’s got a .542 wOBA. He’s got a wRC+ of 243, meaning he’s 43 percent better than two league-average hitters smooshed together against left-handed pitchers this year. Let’s give some context by digging into that wOBA a bit more. As I said, it’s at .542, and league average wOBA against left-handed pitching is .322. Martinez would have to walk up to the plate 84 straight times and strike out for his wOBA to drop to the league average mark. On Sunday, he faces Angels lefty Peter Sandoval. But Pablo Sandoval might have a better shot at getting Martinez out, because at least he throws with his right hand.
8. On the subject of Red Sox batters, Mookie Betts has 57 hard-hit (95+ mph) line drives or fly balls for outs this year; that’s six more than any other player in MLB. For context, he had 55 such batted balls in all of 2018, 54 in all of 2017, 48 in 2016, and 45 in 2015. The year after an MVP campaign where everything broke right, Betts has been the victim of a bit of bad luck in 2019. It’s reflected in his other numbers, as well: his BABIP has dropped from .368 to .303 this year, and his HR/FB rate has dropped from 16.4 percent to 11.8 percent, which is especially noteworthy in a season where a juiced ball is letting everything leave the yard. But have no fear: Betts finds himself in a great matchup on Sunday with the platoon edge over Pablo Peter Sandoval. The pairing of Martinez and Betts will be tough to fit in for cash games, but if I’m building tournament lineups, I want tons of exposure to these two hitters.
9. Since 2018, only five hitters (min. 300 PA) have a .200+ ISO and 12.3 percent strikeouts or fewer against right-handed pitching: Michael Brantley, Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rendon, and … Didi Gregorius. Gregorius appears to fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, as he’s showing good pop while simply not striking out, especially against right-handers. Case in point, he’s got nine extra-base hits (5 doubles, 1 triple, 3 home runs) against just six strikeouts since July 18th. Gregorius provides cheap exposure to the Yankees high-powered offense on Sunday, and he’s in a matchup against Trent Thornton (.344 wOBA vs. LHBs this year). Quietly, the Rogers Centre has been the best home run park in MLB this year, per Baseball Prospectus, with a 127 home run rating. Finding high-contact hitters with pop is one of the first lessons in DFS Cash Games 101. Gregorius fits the bill on Sunday’s slate.
10. Since 2016, Jose Martinez has a 162 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Here is the complete list of players (min. 250 PA) who top him on that list: J.D. Martinez (187), Giancarlo Stanton (176), Kris Bryant (175), Nolan Arenado (168), Mike Trout (165). Martinez has mashed lefties since entering the league, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down in 2019, with a .435 wOBA, .302 ISO, and a 173 wRC+. He’s still cheap across the industry ($2,900 at FD; $3,600 at DK; $11 at Yahoo) in a plus matchup against Pirates left-hander Steven Brault, who, with a .353 wOBA allowed, is no great shakes against right-handed batters. Plug him in for cash games if you’re searching for value.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!