10 Notes Sneak Peek: Week 15
Sometimes, it all comes down to one decision.
The story of your success or failure in DFS this week (most likely) hinged on a single decision: did you click Le’Veon Bell’s name, or didn’t you? If you did, you’re likely feeling okay this morning. If you didn’t, well, you might have a head start even on this column when it comes to research for Week 15.
If you played on FanDuel, the decision was easy for you, especially with some poorly priced players (Emmanuel Sanders at $5,900?) and with some value becoming apparent as the week wore on (Robby Anderson at $4,700, who I passed on in favor of Ted Ginn, even though, as a Panthers fan, I’ve watched more Ted Ginn than anyone should ever watch in one lifetime). At DraftKings, though, it was a legitimate decision; if you wanted Bell in addition to David Johnson, who was arguably in a better spot than Bell, you had to roster a pretty sketchy group of receivers, or pay way down at QB, or make some other sacrifice that made guys like Jeremy Hill and Jordan Howard look pretty enticing. You had to sell out for these two players and hope the rest of your team did enough to scrape by.
But if you did sell out for these two high-priced backs, you’re likely sitting pretty, even if the rest of your cash team was in shambles (#GinnLife). Bell scored 54.8 DraftKings points, almost 17 points (or one David Johnson’s worth) higher than the next highest scorer (Bilal Powell, 37.90 points). Bell’s was the highest point total at DraftKings since Jamaal Charles put up 62.5 DraftKings points on December 15, 2013.
Personally, the decision to click Bell’s name is what saved me from what otherwise would have been a rough week. I was slightly profitable at FanDuel and slightly unprofitable at DraftKings. Not a great week, but if I had made the decision to go down from Bell (which I experimented prior to lineup lock in order to try to work in Mike Evans), it would have been a rough go.
It’s not often that successes and failures can be attributed to one move, although it is tempting and convenient to pretend, after losing weeks, that we were only one move away from cashing. I hope you all clicked on Bell’s name, but I’m curious: did anybody make any money without Bell this week? I’m interested to hear from you all.
Alright, on to the real business.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping 10 noteworthy happenings from Week 14.
1. Bell happened, in a big way. He carried the ball 38 times for 236 yards and three scores, adding four receptions for 62 yards for good measure. A few fun facts about Bell’s game:
— Bell had 42 touches, more than any player in a game this year. In fact, the last player with 42 touches in a game was Carolina’s Nick Goings, who ran the ball 36 times and caught six passes on December 5th, 2004.
— Bell became the first player with 298+ yards from scrimmage and 3+ TDs in a game since Jerome Harrison did it for the Browns on December 20, 2009.
— Bell now has 218 carries and 67 receptions in 10 games this year. Among players with 218+ carries in the first 10 games of a season, Priest Holmes ranks a distant second in receptions with 56.
2. David Johnson, who was arguably in a better spot than Bell, laid an egg (yes, 18.10 points is a dud by DJ’s standards), failing to find the end zone and fumbling. Even so, he reached 100 yards for the 13th consecutive game, tying an NFL record. Okay, I’m ready to admit it: I should have drafted Johnson over Todd Gurley in my season-long league.
3. Carlos Hyde reached 100 yards before halftime against the Jets. Only two backs (David Johnson, Jay Ajayi) had eclipsed the century mark against the Jets in an entire game all season. Hyde ended with 19 carries for 196 yards and (weirdly) a receiving touchdown…and he might not have even been the most impressive back in that game. Bilal Powell, filling in for an injured Matt Forte, toted the rock 29 times for 145 yards and two TDs, chipping in in the passing game with 5 catches for 34 yards, as well. Unfortunately, Powell faces the Dolphins on Saturday in Week 15, a game only available to those playing the Thursday slate.
4. Russell Wilson, one of the chalkier QBs for Week 14 in a primo matchup against the Packers, threw a career-high five INTs. He became the first Seahawks QB since Jon Kitna in 1999 to throw five picks in a game, and he nearly doubled his season-long interception rate from 1.2 percent to 2.3 percent.
5. Blake Bortles didn’t throw an interception, despite facing one of the stiffest tests of the year in the Vikings secondary. Baseball gets a bad rap for being unpredictable; sometimes, football makes absolutely no sense.
6. On the other side of the field, Aaron Rodgers needed just 23 passes to find the endzone three times. He’s got 10 TDs and zero picks in the last four games, and in Week 15, he faces the Bears, a team against whom he’s recorded a 106.8 passer rating in 17 career games.
7. Jeremy Hill justified his price bump with an impressive outing (25 carries, 111 yards). It was just the third time of the year Hill had averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry. It’s worth noting that he’s getting more and more involved in the passing game, catching three passes for 31 yards this week. Since Week 12, he has 11 catches, just three fewer than Le’Veon Bell.
8. Julio Jones was first listed as a game-time decision. Then, it was reported that he would be a “decoy at best.” Then, the Falcons were “pessimistic” that he would play. And finally, on Sunday morning, he was listed as “inactive,” causing DFS players everywhere to dismantle the teams they’d spent hours building throughout the weekend. Taylor Gabriel became the mega-chalk, and he rewarded those who rostered him with three catches, including a 64-yard touchdown grab. There’s no telling how big his day would have been if the Falcons hadn’t gotten off to such a massive lead.
9. On GrindersLive on Sunday morning, Dean78904 “decided” that DeSean Jackson would catch a long touchdown pass, and Jackson caught an 80-yarder from Kirk Cousins. He also “decided” T.Y. Hilton would catch a long touchdown pass, and Hilton caught a 35-yarder from Andrew Luck. I see only two reasonable explanations. 1.) Dean78904 is a witch, or 2.) Dean78904 has been to the future.
10. Demaryius Thomas (15 targets) and Emmanuel Sanders (14 targets) finished first and second in targets for the week (Sunday night game not included). Trevor Siemian threw the ball 52 times, more than any other QB in Week 14. Both receivers had 11 catches and over 100 yards.
Looking ahead to Week 15…
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 15, using DraftKings pricing.
1. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (vs. SF) — $7,300 — It’ll certainly be tricky to pay up for a QB as long as David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell exist in the world, but Ryan finds himself in a pristine matchup against the fast-paced 49ers. Don’t be fooled by the fact that the 49ers haven’t given up a TD pass in the past two weeks; those matchups were against Matt Barkley and Bryce Petty. San Francisco ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, and when they’ve faced solid-to-good QBs, they’ve failed hard (Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill all had at least three TDs against the 49ers this year). If Julio Jones returns from injury, expect the Ryan/Julio stack to be one of the more popular of the week.
2. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE) — $5,700 — Taylor’s price always seems to stay the same, and in Week 15, he gets one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (31st in pass defense DVOA). The Browns have given up multiple TD passes in all but two games this season, and if Taylor can combine a multi-score game with the rushing yards we’re accustomed to (36.2 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL among QBs), he’s got serious upside at his price.
3. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE) — $8,900 — David Johnson ($10,100 at home against the Saints) and Le’Veon Bell ($9,800 at Cincinnati) will be the chalk, and for obvious reasons. But McCoy’s matchup is even better than Johnson’s or Bell’s. Favored by 10 at home against a Browns team that ranks 29th in rush defense DVOA, McCoy will be leaned on heavily. And what’s more, he’s becoming as much of a dual threat as either of those higher-priced backs, with 13 catches and a league-leading 142 receiving yards over the past two weeks. A Tyrod/McCoy/Watkins stack has a ton of upside this week.
4. Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (vs. SF) — $6,700 — Playing running backs against the 49ers has been a profitable venture all year, and while it was Bilal Powell and not Matt Forte doing the damage, that was borne out once again in Week 14. The 49ers are allowing 170.8 rushing yards per game this year, which is a ridiculous 24.6 yards more than the next-highest team (the Browns, at 146.2 rushing yards allowed per game). Tevin Coleman is still eating into Freeman’s production (and, at $5,000, is in play himself), and he out-touched Freeman 11-8 this week. But it was a 42-0 blowout, and I still think Freeman is the Atlanta back most likely to take advantage of the matchup.
5. Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (@ SD) — $5,800 — On Thursday night, Murray got 22 carries, his highest mark in a game since September of 2015; clearly, he’s gaining the trust of those calling the plays in Oakland. San Diego has actually been effective at limiting monster games for running backs this year (no 100-yard games allowed), but Murray’s price tag feels to low given his recent production and increased role in a prolific offense.
6. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (vs. SF) — $8,100 — Obviously, we’ll have to monitor Julio’s ability to practice this week, but if he’s able to take the field, he’s in a dream matchup. Jones has been priced as highly as $9,600 at DraftKings this year, and in one of the best matchups he’s had all year, he’s at his lowest price of the year. If you’re going to fade either David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell in Week 15 (and you’ll likely have to fade one given their escalating prices), Julio is the reason why.
7. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (@ CHI) — $7,300 — Nelson scored two more touchdowns on Sunday, bringing his season total to a league-leading 12 for the year. He continues to see ridiculous volume in the red zone (both of his touchdowns came inside the 10), and against a depleted Bears defense, the Packers should have no trouble marching down the field. He’s still not priced like the elite receiver that he is, and as with Julio, the only question is one of lineup construction: is it even worth it to pay up at WR when three RBs (I’m including McCoy in that group) seem like sure bets for 20+ DraftKings points? We’ll see, but as with the Ryan/Julio stack, the Rodgers/Jordy stack won’t be sneaking by anybody in tournaments.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (vs. NO) — $7,000 — Fitzgerald caught three passes for 11 yards on Sunday. That’s not great. But he was targeted nine times when no other Cardinals receiver was thrown to more than three times. Opposing QBs are throwing 41.7 times per game against the Saints (second-most in the NFL), and while Brees being on the road probably precludes this game from being the high-scoring affair it would be in the Superdome, there should still be plenty of volume for Fitzgerald. He’s definitely more of a tournament option given the quality at the high end of the RB pool in Week 15, but he’s in for a bounce-back game against a Saints defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA.
9. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE) — $5,900 — Watkins caught four passes for 54 yards and a score in Week 14, and he appears to be back, having tied LeSean McCoy for the team lead with six targets. His price does not reflect that. Before his injury, he was priced at $7,300 at DraftKings, so if we assume he’s back at full health (which is never really a safe thing to assume with Watkins), then the value here is too good to pass on. I suspect Watkins will become the chalk as the week moves along.
10. Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears (vs. GB) — $4,200 — Another player who, most likely, will be popular as a way of saving the salary needed to fit in the high-end RBs is Cam Meredith. Meredith had another solid week with Matt Barkley at the helm, hauling in six passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. Alshon Jeffery ($6,000) is returning from suspension, which could put a damper on Meredith’s upside, but as long as his price remains this low, there’s a case to be made for playing him in cash, especially given the matchup against a weak Packers secondary.
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Thanks for reading! All stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and FootballGuys.com.
Be sure to check out “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for NFL Week 15, which will be published on Thursday or Friday. Good luck this week!