2017 MLB DFS Preview – National League West
Hello RotoGrinders. Welcome to the NL West article to help you get prepared for MLB DFS Opening Day, which is just around the corner.
I’m planning to do an article for each division. The goal of these articles is to help prepare you for MLB DFS in terms of what has happened since you last played in September. I will be focused on highlighting new acquisitions, expected opening day starters, and share any pertinent information I come across (ex: Player A plans to run more, Player B is coming into camp in the best shape ever, Player C started taking steroids this offseason, etc.).
You can find me on Twitter here. With that said, let’s dive in:
Los Angeles Dodgers – 2016 Record: 91-71
The reigning NL West champs enter 2017 with familiar faces in familiar places. New second baseman and expected lead-off hitter Logan Forsythe was acquired in the off-season for pitching prospect Jose “Ponce” De Leon. Forsythe slugged a career high 20 home runs last season as the Rays’ lead-off hitter and should thrive in a better lineup.
Andrew Toles is expected to be the starting left fielder after a strong rookie campaign. Toles is not a power guy (he hit 3 homers in 48 big league games and never hit more than 7 homers in a minor league season), but he was a career .309 hitter in the minors and somehow had a 62 steal season in A-ball, so he can be useful for DFS.
Not much needs to be said about Corey Seager. He’s going to be a stud for years to come if he can stay healthy. Speaking of staying healthy, Justin Turner was given a 4 year extension this off-season but is battling a sore left knee. It doesn’t appear to be anything serious but one beat writer said he received a “preventative lubricating injection in his knee.” I can’t tell if that sounds painful or provocative. I guess a little of both?
Clayton Kershaw is doing Clayton Kershaw type things and has struck out 17 batters in 15 innings thus far. He’s basically the Russell Westbrook of MLB DFS where you just pay for him and work your lineup around him.
Scott Kazmir, a Derek Carty favorite, was removed in a March 7th start due to hip tightness. My recommendation for him is to use some of that preventative lubricating injection medicine that Justin Turner is using. He remains one of the most frustrating pitchers in DFS because the strikeout ability is still there (134 Ks in 136.1 innings last year), but he averaged 5.2 innings per start last year. If you’re playing on FanDuel and banking on the win or quality start, it’s not guaranteed with this guy because he can barely get through 5 frames. Kazmir’s velocity is also down and it has been confirmed he’ll start the year on the DL.
The backend of the rotation is interesting. Brandon McCarthy is likely the 4th starter. Stud propsect Julio Urias likely won’t be ready for opening day so I’m not expecting him to make the rotation to start the season. This would mean Alex Wood would be penciled in as the 5th starter. The Dodgers also have Hyun-Jin Ryu but he’s a mess. I clicked on his profile to see what’s wrong with him and the following body parts were listed on his injury report: adductor, shoulder, elbow, leg. To summarize, there are very few parts that are pain-free for this guy.
San Francisco Giants – 2016 Record: 87-75
The Giants had an up-and-down season last year that ended in heartbreak with a playoff loss to the Cubs. They led the majors in blown saves with 30 and addressed it by signing closer Mark Melancon. Melancon should provide some stability to the pen and help secure victories for the Giants’ starters.
It’s worth noting that Melancon, Brandon Crawford, and Buster Posey all played for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. I bring it up because Posey has had a tendency to wear down as the season progresses. He battled hand injuries last season and the Giants have played him occasionally at first base to help him health-wise. The Giants also added serviceable catcher Nick Hundley as his back-up. I don’t know if these extra WBC games will help prepare Posey for the start of the season or cause him to wear down sooner.
The Giants outfield was so bad last year that there were times Madison Bumgarner batted eighth in the order. Both Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson are having great springs and expected to platoon with one another. Neither are very exciting for DFS purposes but hopefully both can do enough so that Bumgarner can go back to batting ninth.
Colorado Rockies – 2016 Record: 75-87
Everyone’s favorite team to stack, the Colorado Rockies, got even more explosive like my kid’s diapers with the off-season addition of Ian Desmond to a five-year contract. Desmond will play first base but broke his left hand in spring training, putting him out until late April. Mark Reynolds will fill in for him in the meantime.
David Dahl had a terrific rookie season batting .315 with 7 home runs and 5 steals in only 63 games. Dahl is slated to be the starting left fielder but has a rib injury. This will likely cause him to start the year on the DL but will rejoin the club in mid-to-late April. We should see Gerardo Parra be the starter while Dahl is healing.
My man-crush Jon Gray was straight dealing in 2016, striking out 185 batters in 168 innings. I loved playing Gray at Coors because his stuff profiles well for the ballpark and Coors depressed his ownership. Gray actually had near-equal splits away from Coors. Here was the breakdown:
Home: 7-2 record, 4.30 ERA, 83.2 innings, 94 strikeouts, 9 home runs, .241 average
Away: 3-8 record, 4.91 ERA, 84.1 innings, 91 strikeouts, 9 home runs, .245 average
I will be firing up Gray in GPPs all season. Speaking of good Rockies pitchers, Tyler Anderson found success at Coors. Anderson’s splits at home were very favorable and while not the fireballer Gray is, Anderson found a way to make things work in his home games:
Home: 5-2 record, 3.00 ERA, 78 innings, 68 strikeouts, 8 home runs, .271 average
Away: 0-4 record, 4.71 ERA, 36.1 innings, 31 strikeouts, 4 home runs, .275 average
Add in the fact the Rockies signed two-time All-Star Greg Holland to join a strong bullpen that already includes Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee, and the Rockies don’t look so bad on paper.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2016 Record: 69-93
The Diamondbacks are one of those DFS-friendly teams because of the ballpark they play in. They have some nice pieces, but couldn’t stay healthy and put it all together last year.
After a breakout year in 2015 for A.J. Pollock that saw him hit 20 home runs and steal 39 bases, Pollock only played 12 games in 2016 due to injuries. Pollock is battling groin tightness this spring but is expected to be ready for the start of the season. He is such a talented player and I hope injuries don’t shorten his career.
The same can be said about David Peralta. Peralta hit 17 home runs with a .893 OPS in 2015, but injuries also derailed his 2016 season where he only played 48 games. Peralta says his wrist feels good this spring so he’s a good bounce-back candidate.
Both Jake Lamb (29 home runs) and Yasmany Tomas (31 home runs) had career years and provided Paul Goldschmidt with plenty of RBI opportunities. Even role players like Chris Owings (21 steals) and Brandon Drury (16 home runs) had career years and offered value for DFS players. For what it’s worth, Drury lost 10 pounds and added muscle this off-season.
The Diamondbacks did lose Beef Welington Castillo and replaced him with Jeff Mathis, which is a huge downgrade. Mathis should split time with Chris Herrmann at catcher.
The Diamondbacks traded Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger this off-season for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Segura became expendable with the emergence of Drury, and Haniger wasn’t going to play much with the outfield spots taken, so the trade made some sense. Walker had a solid season in 2015 but it was nothing spectacular. He should provide some stability in a rotation that has some promise. Speaking of promise, let’s talk about Shelby Miller, because right now he has no promise as a starting pitcher. Miller was downright dreadful in 2016. I’m not even looking at the 3-12 record. He gave up 127 hits and 42 walks in only 101 innings. His K/9 was only 6.2. Honestly, Miller can only go upwards after hitting rock bottom last year. This spring, he’s pitched 11 innings and given up 9 runs for an ERA of 7.36. And somehow, he had the nerve to go to arbitration against the Diamondbacks arguing for $5.1 million instead of the $4.7 million he was offered.
San Diego Padres – 2016 Record: 68-94
We often gave the San Diego Padres a lot of grief for their awful offense last year. Did you know they were actually 20th in home runs and 21st in runs scored in the majors last year, meaning a third of the league was more pathetic than them? (okay fine, the Padres were last in the majors with a .235 team batting average so they were pathetic in other ways). Despite what we may think about the Padres, there are some bright spots here.
I dug into Petco Park numbers from 2016 because I was curious how it stacked up with other parks. Petco averaged 2.17 home runs per game in 2016, which was right at the National League ballpark average (2.18). So maybe Petco isn’t as bad for power as we’ve been trained to think.
Wil Myers had a terrific season with 28 home runs and 28 stolen bases. Ryan Schimpf came out of nowhere to hit 20 home runs in only 89 games after crushing minor league pitching. Yangervis Solarte even had a nice year with 15 home runs in 109 games.
The Padres outfield has promise as well. Travis Jankowski claimed the leadoff role and stole 30 bases. Alex Dickerson quietly hit 10 home runs in half a season. Hunter Renfroe smacked 4 home runs in 11 big league games and is entrenched as the starting right fielder. One thing to note is that Jabari Blash does have 6 home runs this spring to lead the team and will likely start in left field for Dickerson as he deals with a back injury for the next 3-4 weeks.
The pitching is oh-so-ugly and not worthy of much time. When your staff ace is Jered Weaver, you are in trouble. Outside of Luis Perdomo, there’s not much to be excited about here (that’s what she said). Christian Friedrich is going to start the year on the DL, which should allow Trevor Cahill a chance to join the rotation.
Thanks for reading!