Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, August 14th
With several pitchers who were traded at the deadline on the mound tonight, we’re going to be taking a look at the effects of their new environment after a couple of starts and going forward. Some of it’s not really a big deal, but some of it may surprise you, including potentially a big change that one team seems to have already made with one of their acquisitions.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -6.9 | 5.2 | 5.51 | 0.62 | 1.07 | 5.37 | 5.52 | MIL | 86 | 71 | 54 | 17.6% | 7.4% | 23.6% | 11.2% | 7.2% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 4.8 | 3.6 | 6.08 | 1.41 | 0.89 | 3.12 | 3.25 | CIN | 85 | 100 | 98 | 22.6% | 7.8% | 23.0% | 14.5% | 5.4% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 5.4 | 4.34 | 6.02 | 1.41 | 1.01 | 4.42 | 5.96 | HOU | 115 | 104 | 54 | 17.7% | 8.1% | 18.6% | 13.8% | 11.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.4 | 3.74 | 6.27 | 1.01 | 0.88 | 3.64 | 4.81 | PIT | 91 | 100 | 163 | 18.0% | 4.4% | 21.3% | 10.2% | 5.9% |
| Cody Martin | OAK | -8.5 | 3.07 | 0.72 | 1.04 | 4.21 | BAL | 109 | 100 | 85 | |||||||
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -4.1 | 2.8 | 6.86 | 1.43 | 1.05 | 2.61 | 3.22 | MIN | 109 | 90 | 127 | 23.2% | 5.6% | 23.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -1.7 | 3.01 | 6.85 | 3.52 | 1.01 | 2.7 | 3.68 | DET | 103 | 116 | 83 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 18.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 10 | 4.64 | 5.52 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 4.9 | 6.07 | ANA | 92 | 91 | 91 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 22.7% | 8.6% | 15.2% |
| David Price | TOR | -2 | 3 | 7.11 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 2.83 | 2.88 | NYY | 100 | 112 | 48 | 24.0% | 7.3% | 18.9% | 10.0% | 13.7% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -5.5 | 4.33 | 6. | 1.79 | 1.05 | 4.04 | 2.92 | TOR | 126 | 109 | 85 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 16.2% | 17.2% | 14.6% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -4.5 | 4.06 | 5.62 | 1.08 | 0.88 | 4.3 | 3.85 | NYM | 102 | 83 | 103 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 22.2% | 16.0% | 9.9% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.4 | 3.05 | 6.42 | 2.94 | 0.98 | 3 | 4.9 | FLA | 87 | 109 | 119 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 20.3% | 10.6% | 5.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -6.3 | 3.49 | 6.73 | 1.39 | 1.08 | 3.38 | 5.77 | CHC | 96 | 91 | 132 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 22.6% | 12.1% | 10.9% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3 | 4.35 | 6.31 | 0.7 | 1.04 | 5 | 0.97 | KAN | 107 | 103 | 119 | 18.6% | 5.6% | 21.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -2.1 | 4.22 | 5.51 | 1.93 | 1.07 | 3.92 | 3.06 | SEA | 91 | 97 | 95 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 22.3% | 11.9% | 5.3% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.89 | LOS | 117 | 109 | 109 | ||||||||
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -3.9 | 3.82 | 6.36 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 3.62 | 3.49 | ARI | 96 | 98 | 151 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 21.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.2 | 3.69 | 5.95 | 1.59 | 1.08 | 3.84 | 3.57 | CHW | 85 | 92 | 92 | 19.6% | 6.2% | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 2.4 | 4.17 | 6.09 | 1.76 | 1.08 | 3.6 | 2.37 | TAM | 96 | 113 | 132 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 1.7 | 4.27 | 5.9 | 1.16 | 0.87 | 3.86 | 6.31 | WAS | 94 | 93 | 84 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 21.8% | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -4.5 | 2.87 | 6.74 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 2.91 | 2.86 | SFO | 110 | 113 | 89 | 24.7% | 7.1% | 19.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | -2.7 | 4.31 | 6.16 | 1.62 | 1.07 | 4.14 | 4.12 | BOS | 104 | 97 | 114 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 20.9% | 9.0% | 6.6% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 9.6 | 3.72 | 5.71 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 3.55 | 2.95 | TEX | 96 | 99 | 82 | 22.8% | 7.7% | 20.3% | 11.5% | 9.1% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.1 | 4.02 | 5.43 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 4.04 | 3.38 | ATL | 89 | 75 | 76 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 10.8% | 5.9% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 5.2 | 4.38 | 5.91 | 1.24 | 0.98 | 4.51 | 4.34 | STL | 102 | 100 | 83 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 20.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Trevor May | MIN | 2.3 | 3.81 | 5.13 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 4.19 | 1.62 | CLE | 90 | 99 | 147 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 25.5% | 6.9% | 18.3% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -8.6 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 2.95 | 1.4 | 3.36 | 2.06 | COL | 98 | 98 | 37 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 20.8% | 10.6% | 12.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.6 | 3.79 | 5.77 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 3.92 | 3.51 | OAK | 90 | 96 | 95 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 9.3% | 13.4% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -3.8 | 3.97 | 6.04 | 1.76 | 1.07 | 3.53 | 5.81 | PHI | 86 | 85 | 93 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 22.4% | 12.3% | 7.3% |
| Yohan Flande | COL | -0.5 | 3.67 | 5.17 | 2.82 | 1.4 | 4 | 3.02 | SDG | 86 | 81 | 87 | 17.3% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 18.7% | 6.8% |
Alex Wood has allowed seven runs in his first two Dodger starts, but more importantly he’s struck out 24.5% of his batters with a SwStr above 14.5% in both starts. Perhaps they’ve already begun making adjustments. While he shouldn’t see too much of a change in BABIP and although his new home is kinder to power, it’s a tougher overall run environment. We should probably also mention his 9.4 BB% and 20.6 Hard-Soft% in his new uniform as well. Interestingly, if you look at his pitch usage by game on both Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball, he stopped throwing his sinker since the trade and has replaced it with a new two-seam fastball and either more curveballs or knuckle curves depending on which site you believe. So there’s a definite change in approach. There’s something else that might have already made a huge difference that we’ll touch on below too. Cincinnati is an average team against LHP, but very poor on the road and a favorable park adjusted matchup.
Bartolo Colon has underlying numbers that look better than his ERA, has his bets SwStr (6.5%) in a decade with the best K-BB (14.6%) of his career, and occasionally hits his spots and shows up with a strong outing, but maybe he should start throwing more pitches out of the strike zone instead of right down the middle of it because he’s frequently being lit up since May. We’ll get a little deeper into all of this later. He does have a 16.7 K-BB% at home as a Met, though. The Pirates have a 16.0 K-BB% on the road but are the hottest offense in the majors over the last week (18.8 HR/FB). They rate as a near neutral matchup after a negative park adjustment.
Corey Kluber always seems to have his great starts during day or weekend games when I don’t get to cover him and struggle in his weeknight assignments. Well, he threw a complete-game three-hitter with 10 strikeouts on Sunday, his first double-digit K effort in seven starts. Now he travels to face the same offense in a home park where they’re much more comfortable, but his 28.8 K% and 6.6 HR/FB on the road since last year actually trump his home numbers. The Twins are a strong home offense (12.3 HR/FB) and have been hitting the ball well lately, making them a tough matchup today.
Dallas Keuchel has struggled a bit in two of his last three starts, but his strikeout rate has actually increased with a decrease in his ERA estimators since the All-Star break. He still maintains an above average 16.1 K-BB% with an elite 63.7 GB% and dominant -4.6 Hard-Soft%. Weak ground balls still rule his starts. They’ve just seemed to squeak through a little more often recently. Detroit is the 2nd best offense vs LHP with a 22.5 K%, but 9.5 BB%, 24.7 LD%, and 12.2 HR/FB. It’s a park adjusted matchup that favors the offense.
David Price seems to face the Yankees every other start for the last six or seven years. There’s probably some meta-game going on there that the numbers can’t even begin to cover. In 15 innings in his new uniform (including his last start against the Yankees), he’s allowed one run and struck out 18 of 56 batters. Although Toronto has a reputation of being a much more hitter-friendly environment than Detroit, the only real boost is to RH power. It’s an overall similar run environment and he actually gets a bump in team BABIP by some 20 points, although the Detroit defense actually rates better overall. He doesn’t have to face the toughest offense in the AL East anymore because that’s his team now, so I don’t know there will be much of a difference overall aside from whatever benefit Russell Martin brings to his game. The Yankees are one of the top offenses vs LHP with a 9.4 BB% and 12.7 HR/FB, but one of the coldest offenses over the last week (23.1 K%, -3.8 Hard-Soft%). They rate as a very neutral matchup after a park adjustment.
J.A. Happ didn’t make it through five innings in his Pittsburgh debut but did strike out six of 23 Cubs. He actually moves to a worse BABIP situation, as the Pittsburgh defense has allowed a .307 mark this year with a negligible park shift. Pittsburgh is actually tougher on RHP though slightly less pitcher friendly overall. The Mets are a very poor offense vs LHP (24.2 K%) and rate as one of the best overall park adjusted matchups tonight.
Jaime Garcia has been stranding a lot of runners lately, but hasn’t been a bad pitcher this year and has even increased his K% to league average over the last month. He has a 17.0 K-BB% at home in limited work since last year. His ground ball rate (66.9%) would actually top Brett Anderson if he had enough innings, though he only generates a league average rate of weak contact, unlike the other pitchers with a 60%+ GB rate. Miami has suddenly picked up the offense (4.3 K-BB% over the last week) and have been good against LHP all year (13.7 HR/FB), but are poor on the road and rate as an overall neutral matchup here.
Jered Weaver might have benefited in the eyes of sabermetricly minded fans more than anyone if these contact authority stats were available five years ago, but he looked great in his return from the DL, striking out seven of 19 Orioles with a -18.2 Hard-Soft% upon contact. The results will likely be different, at least from a strikeout perspective, against Kansas City, but this isn’t necessarily a bad park for someone of his skill set (lots of fly balls and pop ups). We know the Royals don’t strike out though (14.4% at home, 15.9% vs RHP, and 14.5% over the last week) and rate as one of the tougher park adjusted matchups tonight, despite just a 7.5 HR/FB at home.
John Lamb was received in the Johnny Cueto trade and makes his debut tonight because the Reds are just calling up all their minor league pitchers this week. He’s one of the sadder Tommy John Surgery stories as a top prospect who never fully recovered from his 2011 procedure, but Fangraphs says that the stuff has improved from fringy to average this year, but still calls him a 5th starter type. He struck out over a quarter of the batters he faced at AAA this year but struggled with control occasionally as a 25-year-old. The Dodgers are a strong home offense (13.5 HR/FB), good against LHP, and may get Justin Turner back tonight. The negative park run environment makes it a more neutral matchup, though.
Julio Teheran has seen some improvement in the underlying numbers, but not the results. The K rate is up to 23.6% over the last month, but the BABIP has shot up to .341 due to a 24.5 LD% and 26.2 Hard-Soft% so it’s really more upside with additional risk. Arizona is really a neutral offense, but hits the ball hard vs RHP (15.3 Hard-Soft%) and has been on fire over the last week (14.6 K%) making them a tough matchup in a nearly neutral overall run environment.
Martin Perez has had it rough since returning from TJS, but has seen improvement over his last two starts (14.1 IP – 3 ER – 11 K – 1 BB – 52 BF) and has a -1.1 Hard-Soft% in five starts this season. He faces a hot Tampa Bay offense (14.5 HR/FB, 22.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week) and one of the top ones against LHP (despite just a 6.2 Hard-Soft%). They may be tonight’s toughest matchup after a positive park adjustment.
Max Scherzer has a 26.7 K-BB% and is still in contention for the NL Cy Young despite worsening results over the last month due nearly entirely to a spike in his HR rate, which we’ll talk about later. He has a 29.5 K% on the road since last season and gets an extreme park upgrade tonight that should help make up for whatever decline in K% the Giants force (17.9 K% vs RHP). While they are a solid offense at home and vs RHP, they have just a 7.3 HR/FB at home and park adjust down to a slightly favorable matchup here.
Nate Karns has allowed four HRs over his last three starts and isn’t going deep into games, as is the Tampa Bay philosophy with the entire pitching staff now, but has struck out 15 of his last 46 batters and has a 25.3 K% on the road. The Rangers rate as a neutral offense, but have been struggling, making them once again a somewhat neutral matchup with a positive park adjustment. They have a lot of LH power, but just a 5.8 HR/FB over the last week and league average 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP this season.
Robbie Ray has seen his results suffer, but the underlying process improve over the last month. The issue has been in his HR rate massively adjusting (four of his six on the season over his last three starts), which we expected with a 25.7 Hard-Soft%. Many people see Atlanta as a team that hurts daily fantasy pitching due to a low strikeout rate, but that’s not true against LHP (21.1 K%). They are near the bottom of the league both at home (7.8 HR/FB) and vs LHP (5.1 Hard-Soft%), rating as one of the top matchups tonight in a near neutral run environment.
Trevor May has pitched exclusively in relief over the last month, accumulating no more than two innings in any appearance, but had been a favorite here earlier in the season due to a league average SwStr% and very fluky seeming BABIP. His ability to go deep into the game is in question here and Cleveland is a well-disciplined test for any pitcher, but a hot offense over the last week comes with just a 2.5 Hard-Soft%. They are a below average road offense, but rate as a tough assignment in an overall run environment that leans towards offense.
Ubaldo Jimenez has seen both his K rate (15.1%) and contact authority (14.6 Hard-Soft%) plummet in the wrong directions since the break. This has led to a 23.1 HR/FB. When you rely on weak contact and called strikes, there’s a larger risk that it can all fall apart. However, he bounced back strongly in his last start against the Angels (8 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 6 K – 29 BF), though with just a 7.6 SwStr and benefits from facing an offense that does not hit the ball hard (5.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, -1.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week) and is poor on the road. They rate as a neutral matchup even with a positive park adjustment.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Ivan Nova (.266 BABIP – 77.4 LOB% – 11.1 HR/FB) – Perhaps more importantly, it’s also a pretty terrible spot for him in Toronto.
Tom Koehler (.263 BABIP – 70.9 LOB% – 11.1 HR/FB)
Michael Montgomery (.260 BABIP – 77.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB) – While some of his metrics have dropped into range, the overall performance has gotten worse with a walk rate up to 9.2% now and 15% since the All-Star break.
Danny Duffy (For the last month – .222 BABIP – 82.8 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB) – Sorry, there’s been no real improvement. His ERA estimators are just as bad with his FIP actually worse over his last five starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Yohan Flande hasn’t been bad, but most of his work has been out of the bullpen and even the poor San Diego offense plays up to one of the worst park-adjusted matchups tonight in Colorado. They do have a 24.6 K% vs LHP, so I wouldn’t absolutely destroy a speculative GPP shot at minimum cost.
Tyson Ross would almost make a case for inclusion in the thought process today just due to his strikeout rate and how cold the Colorado offense has been, but that’s been on the road and even with those numbers factored in, they rate as one of the worst park-adjusted matchups tonight with even just a neutral home and vs RHP offense. Add in the worst outfield defense in the majors and a Colorado lineup that leans heavily LH against a pitcher with major control issues against LHBs and you’re moving onto the next pitcher.
Wily Peralta has a K% that’s half of Max Scherzer’s SwStr% over the last month with a 19.0 Hard-Soft% in three starts since returning from injury.
Joe Kelly – There is actually some interesting stuff going on with his strikeout and walk rates since the All-Star break, but not enough for me to cover today as he’s still allowing a ton of hard contact (over 20.0 Hard-Soft% in three of his last four starts) and faces a team that excels in that (17.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Matt Cain – Though, he too, shows some upside in a nearly average SwStr% and has one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight. He walked five in his last start with a 60 Hard% however and has had a hard hit rate below 30% in just one start this season.
Cody Martin showed some ability to miss bats (26.1 K%) out of the pen in 21.2 innings all out of the pen for the Braves before being traded for “an International bonus slot”, showing how much they thought of him. Not only did his K% drop below league average in seven AAA starts for the A’s, but he acquired a 13.3 BB% to go with it. So, naturally walking 10 of 47 batters in August so far gets him a promotion.
Alfredo Simon – A low strikeout pitcher who generates more than a third of his contact in fly balls visiting Houston may be the type of pitcher you want to target with the home offense.
Adam Morgan – Though I will note that he’s had an 8.0+ SwStr% in every start and has been in double digits in three of his last four. It’s perplexing because he’s never had a good strikeout rate above A ball, but it seems that if he were to harness his stuff and perfect the art of pitching, there might be something here. He also may have the top park adjusted matchup tonight.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 13.2% | 7.4% | Road | 12.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 8.2% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.5% | 7.1% | Home | 25.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 9.4% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.4% | 7.5% | Road | 15.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 3.9% | 7.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.0% | 3.1% | Home | 19.4% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Cody Martin | Athletics | 26.1% | 7.6% | Road | 19.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.2% | 5.2% | Road | 28.8% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 1.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.9% | 6.3% | Home | 22.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 8.6% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 16.9% | 9.5% | Home | 16.1% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 12.7% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 25.1% | 4.3% | Home | 26.2% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 8.9% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 14.6% | 7.7% | Road | 17.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 8.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 19.2% | 7.7% | Road | 16.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 6.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 20.1% | 5.7% | Home | 21.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.8% | 5.2% | Home | 21.2% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 17.0% | 6.2% | Road | 13.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 0.0% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.7% | 8.9% | Home | 18.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.1% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 20.9% | 6.9% | Home | 21.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 1.8% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.4% | 5.0% | Road | 17.6% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 8.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 15.7% | 7.5% | Home | 18.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 1.9% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 17.4% | 7.8% | Home | 20.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 6.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.8% | 6.1% | Road | 29.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 9.1% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 17.8% | 9.2% | Road | 20.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 14.3% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 23.3% | 8.4% | Road | 25.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 8.7% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 19.7% | 7.0% | Road | 20.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.3% | 8.9% | Road | 17.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 10.0% |
| Trevor May | Twins | 20.7% | 6.8% | Home | 17.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 4.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.9% | 9.2% | Road | 22.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 5.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.4% | 9.9% | Home | 20.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 17.6% | 7.6% | Home | 18.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Yohan Flande | Rockies | 14.1% | 6.4% | Home | 11.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 2.3% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Home | 20.8% | 7.5% | LH | 20.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.2% | 8.1% |
| Reds | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | LH | 20.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.5% |
| Astros | Home | 24.1% | 9.1% | RH | 24.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.5% | 6.5% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.8% | 6.9% | RH | 22.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 5.0% |
| Twins | Home | 18.6% | 6.8% | RH | 20.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 7.1% | LH | 22.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 9.5% |
| Angels | Road | 18.7% | 7.4% | LH | 19.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 8.3% | LH | 18.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.2% | 9.5% | RH | 19.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.5% | 5.6% |
| Mets | Home | 20.1% | 8.4% | LH | 24.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.6% | 6.3% | LH | 21.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 15.4% | 11.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.0% | 8.8% | RH | 24.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 11.3% |
| Royals | Home | 14.4% | 6.3% | RH | 15.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 14.5% | 8.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | RH | 21.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.0% | 8.5% | LH | 20.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.4% | 7.5% | RH | 20.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 14.6% | 6.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 6.8% | RH | 20.4% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.6% | 5.7% |
| Rays | Road | 21.1% | 7.5% | LH | 21.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.3% | 7.9% | RH | 21.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.8% |
| Giants | Home | 18.0% | 7.2% | RH | 17.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.3% | 7.7% | LH | 19.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 8.4% | RH | 19.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 5.2% |
| Braves | Home | 18.4% | 8.1% | LH | 21.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.6% | 8.5% | RH | 19.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.6% | 6.8% |
| Indians | Road | 18.7% | 8.6% | RH | 18.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.3% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.9% | 7.2% | RH | 20.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 27.5% | 4.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.1% | 7.7% | RH | 17.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.6% | 5.5% | RH | 19.4% | 5.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 3.0% |
| Padres | Road | 21.9% | 7.4% | LH | 24.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 20.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | Road | 15.6% | 12.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | Home | 22.0% | 12.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 21.1% | 11.0% | 10.1% | Road | 22.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.7% | 9.1% | 7.4% | Home | 20.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Cody Martin | Athletics | 25.9% | 16.0% | 4.0% | Road | 24.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | Road | 23.5% | 6.6% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 5.0% | 10.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | Home | 18.3% | 6.8% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.8% | 6.7% | 14.3% | Home | 24.1% | 4.6% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 13.6% | 31.8% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 22.3% | 8.5% | 10.1% | Home | 21.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 17.2% | 13.4% | 6.7% | Road | 15.4% | 26.9% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | Road | 22.7% | 11.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.1% | Home | 16.6% | 18.2% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | Home | 20.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 19.5% | 9.3% | 12.5% | Road | 19.5% | 12.4% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 22.2% | 11.3% | 6.4% | Home | 27.8% | 9.7% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 23.2% | 9.7% | 11.2% | Home | 20.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 20.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | Road | 20.4% | 5.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 19.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | Home | 22.5% | 3.0% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 21.5% | 12.9% | 11.8% | Home | 17.0% | 7.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.3% | 7.6% | 10.3% | Road | 20.2% | 7.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 19.5% | 10.8% | 5.4% | Road | 23.2% | 10.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 20.5% | 12.7% | 7.7% | Road | 20.4% | 7.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | Road | 21.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | Road | 16.9% | 10.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor May | Twins | 21.7% | 8.5% | 14.1% | Home | 20.9% | 5.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.3% | 9.7% | 6.3% | Road | 22.6% | 13.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.0% | Home | 22.4% | 10.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.5% | 13.7% | 8.3% | Home | 20.7% | 17.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Yohan Flande | Rockies | 18.0% | 16.1% | 4.8% | Home | 18.4% | 13.9% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 57.1% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Home | 21.3% | 11.7% | 6.9% | LH | 18.0% | 11.7% | 5.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | LH | 22.7% | 14.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.5% | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| Astros | Home | 18.4% | 18.6% | 9.5% | RH | 20.1% | 15.1% | 11.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 10.4% | 12.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | RH | 21.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 16.0% | 8.2% | RH | 20.8% | 14.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 17.5% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Home | 22.0% | 12.3% | 10.7% | RH | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.6% | 15.5% | 5.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 11.6% | 7.4% | LH | 24.7% | 12.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.3% | 16.4% |
| Angels | Road | 18.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | LH | 18.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.4% | 12.1% | 8.5% | LH | 18.4% | 12.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.7% | 21.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.2% | 15.2% | 14.3% | RH | 18.7% | 14.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 15.6% | 19.2% | 13.5% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | LH | 20.9% | 11.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 12.7% | 18.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.9% | 11.4% | 7.8% | LH | 21.0% | 13.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.4% | 4.8% | 9.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.3% | 10.6% | 7.6% | RH | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 15.0% | 11.7% |
| Royals | Home | 21.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | RH | 21.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.1% | 12.9% | 7.7% | RH | 20.3% | 12.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 15.1% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.4% | 13.5% | 8.7% | LH | 22.4% | 10.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.1% | 11.3% | 10.3% | RH | 21.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.8% | 12.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 11.5% | 9.3% | RH | 21.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 11.1% | 12.7% |
| Rays | Road | 21.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | LH | 20.5% | 11.7% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 14.5% | 5.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.2% | 13.2% | 9.7% | RH | 20.8% | 12.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Giants | Home | 19.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | RH | 21.5% | 10.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | LH | 20.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 10.6% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.7% | RH | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.8% | 9.6% |
| Braves | Home | 21.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | LH | 21.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 5.8% | 11.5% |
| Indians | Road | 20.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | RH | 21.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | L7Days | 30.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.7% | 13.4% | 8.6% | RH | 21.4% | 14.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 15.9% | 12.1% | 13.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | RH | 20.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 5.2% | 8.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Padres | Road | 20.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | LH | 21.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 13.2% | 10.1% | 1.31 | 11.0% | 10.0% | 1.10 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 18.3% | 8.1% | 2.26 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 1.99 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 15.6% | 8.4% | 1.86 | 8.8% | 6.0% | 1.47 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 17.1% | 6.4% | 2.67 | 11.7% | 5.3% | 2.21 |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 26.1% | 8.4% | 3.11 | |||
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.1% | 12.7% | 2.13 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.2% | 9.5% | 2.34 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 2.53 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.10 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 1.60 |
| David Price | TOR | 24.1% | 11.4% | 2.11 | 29.5% | 12.9% | 2.29 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 16.1% | 8.1% | 1.99 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 2.65 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 17.9% | 7.4% | 2.42 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 2.01 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.7% | 8.0% | 2.34 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.14 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.79 | 9.4% | 6.3% | 1.49 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 13.3% | 8.6% | 1.55 | 36.8% | 20.0% | 1.84 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 19.2% | 7.7% | 2.49 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.26 |
| John Lamb | CIN | ||||||
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 19.8% | 11.0% | 1.80 | 23.6% | 12.6% | 1.87 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.7% | 7.3% | 2.84 | 23.4% | 6.8% | 3.44 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.19 | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.19 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 15.5% | 9.2% | 1.68 | 13.9% | 9.5% | 1.46 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 30.3% | 15.0% | 2.02 | 32.5% | 19.3% | 1.68 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.05 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 2.03 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.72 | 25.6% | 10.9% | 2.35 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 22.2% | 8.4% | 2.64 | 27.1% | 10.9% | 2.49 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.48 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 2.23 |
| Trevor May | MIN | 20.8% | 9.8% | 2.12 | 28.9% | 14.4% | 2.01 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.2% | 12.2% | 2.07 | 26.2% | 10.3% | 2.54 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 21.6% | 8.6% | 2.51 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 1.91 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 13.9% | 7.8% | 1.78 | 9.9% | 5.4% | 1.83 |
| Yohan Flande | COL | 14.0% | 7.8% | 1.79 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.06 |
As we get later into the season, most pitchers have conformed and there’s less to talk about here so I just wanted to touch on a few pitchers who have changed teams recently.
Alex Wood goes from a very negative framing situation in Atlanta (-14.9 RAA combined this year) to maybe a very good one in LA (+13.0 RAA combined). That’s a massive difference that has already shown itself in addition to a change in approach.
David Price goes from a tremendous disadvantage (-17.1 RAA combined in Detroit) to a neutral one in Toronto (-2.4 RAA combined). Russell Martin has generally been considered an excellent framer, but is only +0.8 RAA according to StatCorner.com this year, though I’m sure he’ll provide other benefits.
J.A. Happ moves from a very good framing situation (+12.5 RAA combined in Seattle) to an incredible one in Pittsburgh (+24.0 RAA combined). So despite moving to the best framing spot of our three pitchers today, he sees the least gain because he was the only one already in a very good spot. Grandal and Cervelli are individually very close at the very top of the league. Zunino isn’t far behind.
Jered Weaver – We’ve actually expressed some optimism in his SwStr% in earlier starts, which he both increased and realized with 17 swinging strikes in his first start back off the DL. I don’t expect that again, but there’s no reason he can’t generate a K% somewhere around 17% with his current SwStr%.
Max Scherzer has bottomed out at a 12.8 SwStr% over his last five starts with at least a 20 SwStr% in three of them. That’s right, his SwStr% in three of his last five starts would be an above average K%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 4.06 | 5.19 | 1.13 | 5.39 | 1.33 | 5.18 | 1.12 | 3.9 | 5.56 | 1.66 | 5.61 | 1.71 | 4.29 | 0.39 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.72 | 4.05 | 0.33 | 3.84 | 0.12 | 3.43 | -0.29 | 3.55 | 4.05 | 0.5 | 3.82 | 0.27 | 4.25 | 0.7 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 4.74 | 4.57 | -0.17 | 4.42 | -0.32 | 4.29 | -0.45 | 5.63 | 5.51 | -0.12 | 5.25 | -0.38 | 5.77 | 0.14 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.76 | 3.88 | -0.88 | 3.87 | -0.89 | 3.76 | -1 | 5.83 | 4.59 | -1.24 | 4.52 | -1.31 | 4.36 | -1.47 |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 5.4 | 3.07 | -2.33 | 3.63 | -1.77 | 4.39 | -1.01 | |||||||
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.46 | 2.89 | -0.57 | 2.9 | -0.56 | 2.54 | -0.92 | 3.76 | 3.53 | -0.23 | 3.56 | -0.2 | 2.58 | -1.18 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.4 | 2.77 | 0.37 | 2.72 | 0.32 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 3.29 | 2.44 | -0.85 | 2.47 | -0.82 | 2.59 | -0.7 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.19 | 5.05 | 0.86 | 4.91 | 0.72 | 4.69 | 0.5 | 3.26 | 5.23 | 1.97 | 4.99 | 1.73 | 5.11 | 1.85 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.35 | 3.31 | 0.96 | 3.3 | 0.95 | 2.98 | 0.63 | 2.25 | 2.85 | 0.6 | 2.91 | 0.66 | 3.38 | 1.13 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 3.52 | 4.37 | 0.85 | 4.31 | 0.79 | 4.34 | 0.82 | 3.63 | 3.94 | 0.31 | 3.96 | 0.33 | 4.04 | 0.41 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 4.78 | 4.14 | -0.64 | 4 | -0.78 | 4 | -0.78 | 8.31 | 4.78 | -3.53 | 4.64 | -3.67 | 6.33 | -1.98 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.77 | 3.15 | 1.38 | 3.19 | 1.42 | 3.27 | 1.5 | 2 | 4.27 | 2.27 | 3.76 | 1.76 | 3.93 | 1.93 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 4.62 | 4.03 | -0.59 | 4.08 | -0.54 | 3.82 | -0.8 | 6.96 | 5.2 | -1.76 | 5.2 | -1.76 | 5.33 | -1.63 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.69 | 4.59 | -0.1 | 4.62 | -0.07 | 4.61 | -0.08 | 3.6 | 0.97 | -2.63 | 1.18 | -2.42 | 0.9 | -2.7 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5.96 | 4.09 | -1.87 | 3.98 | -1.98 | 4.29 | -1.67 | 7.11 | 3.32 | -3.79 | 3.41 | -3.7 | 4.73 | -2.38 |
| John Lamb | CIN | ||||||||||||||
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.57 | 4.15 | -0.42 | 4.08 | -0.49 | 4.38 | -0.19 | 4.6 | 3.63 | -0.97 | 3.5 | -1.1 | 3.27 | -1.33 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.73 | 3.47 | -0.26 | 3.39 | -0.34 | 3.41 | -0.32 | 4.34 | 3.39 | -0.95 | 3.02 | -1.32 | 3.58 | -0.76 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5.81 | 3.87 | -1.94 | 3.93 | -1.88 | 2.8 | -3.01 | 5.81 | 3.87 | -1.94 | 3.93 | -1.88 | 2.8 | -3.01 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.59 | 4.66 | -0.93 | 4.79 | -0.8 | 5.1 | -0.49 | 6.23 | 4.69 | -1.54 | 4.91 | -1.32 | 4.95 | -1.28 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.44 | 2.57 | 0.13 | 2.87 | 0.43 | 2.53 | 0.09 | 3.9 | 2.62 | -1.28 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 3.87 | -0.03 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 3.25 | 4.31 | 1.06 | 4.18 | 0.93 | 4.17 | 0.92 | 5.33 | 4.52 | -0.81 | 4.13 | -1.2 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.52 | 3.76 | 0.24 | 3.78 | 0.26 | 3.88 | 0.36 | 2.95 | 3.42 | 0.47 | 3.68 | 0.73 | 4.46 | 1.51 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.13 | 3.71 | 0.58 | 3.82 | 0.69 | 3.17 | 0.04 | 4.88 | 3.17 | -1.71 | 3.13 | -1.75 | 3.68 | -1.2 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.75 | 4.38 | 0.63 | 4.3 | 0.55 | 4.33 | 0.58 | 4.91 | 4.22 | -0.69 | 4.12 | -0.79 | 3.75 | -1.16 |
| Trevor May | MIN | 4.09 | 3.63 | -0.46 | 3.83 | -0.26 | 3.16 | -0.93 | 3.48 | 2.42 | -1.06 | 3.25 | -0.23 | 3 | -0.48 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.39 | 3.26 | -0.13 | 3.04 | -0.35 | 2.81 | -0.58 | 3.56 | 2.49 | -1.07 | 2.35 | -1.21 | 2.31 | -1.25 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.79 | 3.66 | -0.13 | 3.55 | -0.24 | 3.82 | 0.03 | 7.43 | 4.28 | -3.15 | 4.48 | -2.95 | 6.03 | -1.4 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.48 | 4.37 | -0.11 | 4.26 | -0.22 | 4.69 | 0.21 | 6.06 | 5.38 | -0.68 | 5.17 | -0.89 | 4.94 | -1.12 |
| Yohan Flande | COL | 3.86 | 3.42 | -0.44 | 3.72 | -0.14 | 4.75 | 0.89 | 3.26 | 2.9 | -0.36 | 3.34 | 0.08 | 5.89 | 2.63 |
Bartolo Colon has estimators nearly a run below his ERA. If we take the BABIP and 66.5 LOB% first, maybe he deserves a bit better, but really has no indicators suggesting that much. We have to talk about the batted ball and contact authority rates. With a 17.1 K%, a 30.5 Hard% is going to hurt more than someone who strikes out over 20% of their batters. Also, a 1.02 GB/FB with a low strikeout rate means a 10.3 HR/FB is going to hurt more too. This is why he’s on pace to allow his most HRs in a decade as well. Over the last month, his hard contact and line drive rates are up while his strikeout rate has plummeted. So maybe the nearly non-existent walk rate is not as great as it seems here when he’s throwing too many fat pitches that hitters are sitting on.
Corey Kluber – His BABIP has always run a little high and that’s only partly the fault of a Cleveland defense that has actually improved in recent months, as has Kluber’s BABIP to .274 over his last 11 starts, so maybe there’s some hope. His strand rate has been the same as his 69.8% for the season, though. He’s kept a HR/FB below 8% for two straight seasons now.
Dallas Keuchel has seen his SwStr% and K% rise over the last month while maintaining a ground ball rate above 60% and a negative Hard-Soft%. Despite a small rise in ERA, the underlying numbers suggest that nothing has changed. He might have just been outpitching his estimators prior.
David Price has a 79.9 LOB% that is only the 2nd highest of his career, but combines it with a HR/FB that’s two points lower than that season. While the HR rate might be challenged a bit over the next couple of months in his toughest park in Toronto, the strand rate is nearly five points above his career average. He may actually see a further benefit to his BABIP with great IFFB and Z-Contact rates as Toronto allows a mark 20 points lower than Detroit.
J.A. Happ had a .328 BABIP with Seattle that seemed destined to improve with a 13.3 IFFB% despite a 24.5 LD%, but perhaps not now in Pittsburgh. It’s gotten even worse with a reduction in his strikeout rate over the last month.
Jaime Garcia has a completely unsustainable .218 BABIP with no positive indicators aside from a highly volatile 14.9 LD% though he does have an 18.2% career mark. He has an 84.6 LOB% that’s increased to 92.7% over his last six starts. In addition, he’s walked eight of his last 46 batters, so there are definitely some caution flags here.
Jered Weaver – I don’t remember his ERA ever lining up with his estimators before. Obviously, that’s not a favorable event for him.
Martin Perez has just a 7.9 K-BB%, but that’s improved over his last two starts. He hasn’t allowed a HR yet, which makes a FIP three runs lower than his ERA completely unsustainable, but also has just a 51.3 LOB%, which seems similarly difficult to maintain. He has suffered through a .344 BABIP and although he has a great IFFB%, only 23.6% of his batted balls have been in the air, so it’s a bit over-stated and he has a poor Z-Contact%. A 15.7 LD% and -1.1 Hard-Soft% suggest that he’s been experiencing some poor luck in the ground ball placement category.
Max Scherzer – We’ve just covered how many more bats he’s actually missing since the All-Star break, but he’s allowed three HRs in two of those five starts (none in the other three). That’s given him a 23.1 HR/FB over the last month, which has driven up his ERA and FIP despite the other estimators staying the same. The increased HR rate is backed up by a 15.8 Hard-Soft% over that span, bringing his mark for the year up to 6.1%. He still boasts a .258 BABIP and 79.9 LOB% on the season, but has some incredible indicators in the BABIP chart below with a 17.9 LD%. Team defense would seem the only thing threatening the sustainability of that unless he continues to be unable to generate much weak contact anymore.
Robbie Ray – We’ve already spoken about most of the shift in ERA being due to an increased HR rate with the hard contact finally catching up to him in Arizona, though two of the four HRs have come on the road over his last three starts, in which he has a 25.0 HR/FB. He still has just a 6.6 HR/FB on the season.
Trevor May – It’s difficult to evaluate what he’s done out of the pen over the last month and a half, but HRs aren’t the problem (6.8 HR/FB keeps his FIP about a run below his ERA). We need to touch on the BABIP again. His IFFB% and Z-Contact% are both better than average, though not elite. His 21.0 LD% is just about average with a neutral 0.97 GB/FB, which still calls a .342 BABIP into question. Contact authority rates weren’t available earlier in the season and we now see a 13.7 Hard-Soft% that’s a bit worse than the league rate and since it isn’t showing itself in his HR rate, it must be showing up in gappers and other balls in play. This may help explain a bit more about the high BABIP, though he still looks to be in line for some improvement.
Ubaldo Jimenez may have some value now. He’s been poor with harder contact being made, but we wouldn’t expect a 23.1 HR/FB or 55.6 LOB% to sustain. While I’m skeptical of his ability to maintain an above average K% with Baltimore catching ranking league average in the framing department, the underlying metrics still point to a near league average pitcher if he keeps the walk rate reasonable. This is the point in the season where you might want to check velocity on those being hit hard suddenly, but his seems to be holding the line at around 90 mph, his established norm since last year.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.323 | 0.291 | -0.032 | 9.9% | 87.3% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.301 | 0.335 | 0.034 | 9.2% | 89.1% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.303 | 0.303 | 0 | 10.0% | 89.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.281 | 0.315 | 0.034 | 6.9% | 90.1% |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 0.281 | 0.357 | 0.076 | 4.0% | 88.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.296 | 0.315 | 0.019 | 7.8% | 86.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.281 | 0.263 | -0.018 | 12.3% | 90.0% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.279 | 0.289 | 0.01 | 17.9% | 88.2% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.280 | 0.283 | 0.003 | 12.1% | 82.3% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.297 | 0.266 | -0.031 | 15.6% | 92.7% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.307 | 0.328 | 0.021 | 13.3% | 88.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.287 | 0.218 | -0.069 | 3.0% | 89.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.316 | 0.298 | -0.018 | 10.8% | 87.6% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.280 | 0.278 | -0.002 | 15.5% | 84.7% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.308 | 0.337 | 0.029 | 5.6% | 91.2% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 0.280 | ||||
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.306 | 0.306 | 0 | 11.8% | 84.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.289 | 0.295 | 0.006 | 10.1% | 89.6% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.294 | 0.344 | 0.05 | 14.3% | 92.1% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.289 | 0.333 | 0.044 | 10.6% | 87.6% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.307 | 0.258 | -0.049 | 14.5% | 78.9% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 0.289 | 0.260 | -0.029 | 5.4% | 89.1% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.279 | 0.279 | 0 | 7.0% | 87.8% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.290 | 0.291 | 0.001 | 5.5% | 88.6% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.292 | 0.263 | -0.029 | 6.7% | 90.1% |
| Trevor May | MIN | 0.299 | 0.342 | 0.043 | 11.9% | 85.1% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.295 | 0.333 | 0.038 | 5.0% | 84.8% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.289 | 0.297 | 0.008 | 14.4% | 88.5% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.300 | 0.311 | 0.011 | 8.6% | 91.6% |
| Yohan Flande | COL | 0.314 | 0.262 | -0.052 | 4.5% | 87.2% |
Alex Wood – The downside of the increase in strikeouts and change in approach in two starts since being traded is being felt in a .364 BABIP and 35.4 LD%. But he already had a .332 BABIP and 22.5 LD% before the trade, so it’s not like it wasn’t worth attempting to change something. He has generated a 4.5 GB/FB in his new uniform aside from that. It’s a work in progress.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood (5) – There’s a bit of risk here in having a pitcher with a league average ERA and estimators with an average price tag here today, but I think the Dodgers may have already found something here and already made a major adjustment. Plus he benefits from a better situation behind the plate but beware of Grandal sitting against a lefty tonight. That may represent a small downgrade due to framing ability. However, I think his potential upside benefits in several ways with this trade.
Trevor May is a very speculative GPP add at a low cost. He may not be able to go past five innings and the Cleveland offense can be a challenge with good plate discipline, but you’re still potentially looking at a league average strikeout rate and a pitcher who might be better than an ERA that’s being propped by a likely unreasonably high BABIP.
Value Tier Two
Corey Kluber (2) has been a bit inconsistent and isn’t in the best spot tonight, but still goes deep into games and has my #2 projected K% tonight. His DraftKings price is actually very reasonably just above $10K.
Martin Perez is not in a good spot tonight against a good offense vs LHP in a tough park, where RH power still plays up. However, his last two starts have shown major improvement and with a strong ground ball rate and negative contact authority rate, an inflated BABIP seems destined to improve. He should be worth more than the minimum cost on DraftKings and close to it on other sites.
Max Scherzer (1) has been hit harder in recent starts, but six HRs have come in just two of his five post-All-Star break starts and his bat missing skills have been completely out of this world over that span. He has a remarkably high floor due to the #1 projected K%, but an incredibly high price tag and potentially a slightly lower K% vs the Giants tonight too.
Value Tier Three
Nate Karns has an ok matchup and some strikeout potential at a marginal cost.
Jaime Garcia (6) is not as good as his ERA due an extreme BABIP and LOB% over the last month and the Miami offense has ticked up lately, while being formidable vs LHP, so there are certainly a few caution flags here, but he’s been very good at home with an elite ground ball rate.
Robbie Ray is another marginally priced pitcher who gets hit hard, but that’s where the Atlanta matchup in a better park should benefit him. They’re one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight and strike out more than you probably realize against LHP.
David Price (3) has looked great in a Toronto uniform and faces a slumping, though very familiar opponent with a very high price tag that seems like it has the benefit of the Toronto offense baked in.
Dallas Keuchel (4) – We’ve seen that there’s little reason for concern with the higher ERA over the month, but he has a tough matchup at a high cost tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Ubaldo Jimenez comes with huge risk at an average cost because he’s been pounded in recent starts, but doesn’t have a bad matchup here and still profiles as close to league average.
Jered Weaver – While I see some upside in his SwStr% and he came back a house of fire, he may not realize that potential tonight against the Royals in Kansas City, but it’s hardly the worst park for a pitcher of his skill set and the cost looks a bit low on DraftKings.
Jake Lamb is showing some former top prospect shine in an increased AAA K% this year, so maybe the Reds see something there and there’s usually a benefit to the unknown facing a major league pitcher for the first time, but unknown is really the key word here. The potential range of outcomes is really quite wide here.
J.A. Happ – The Mets offer strikeout upside to even poor LHPs.
Julio Teheran – An increased K rate, but still getting hit hard.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.