Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, August 11th
This is only the second time this year that it’s happened so far, but that’s not bad considering I’ve written this article close to 100 times this season. I’ve written the entire article, am ready to post, and realize that I’ve neglected to write an open. I stare blankly at the computer because I’ve got nothing. Now there’s a choice to make. I can either continue to agonize over this and waste precious time or humbly admit my futility in order to get the important information into your hands in a timely manner. I gladly sacrifice my ego today to get this vital pitching information in the open that much sooner. Now, onto the stuff that matters.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.4 | 3.62 | 6.24 | 1.2 | 1.04 | 3.59 | 3.95 | KAN | 106 | 101 | 107 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 20.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -4.1 | 2.72 | 6.25 | 1.81 | 0.94 | 2.65 | 2.38 | NYY | 101 | 107 | 62 | 22.6% | 6.6% | 18.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 1.4 | 3.45 | 5.79 | 1.97 | 0.98 | 3.55 | 3.59 | PIT | 90 | 98 | 161 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 21.0% | 12.1% | 8.4% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -6.3 | 4.23 | 5.21 | 1.65 | 1.08 | 4.66 | 5.41 | ANA | 94 | 94 | 74 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 24.3% | 12.1% | 8.5% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | -0.5 | 4.25 | 5.44 | 1.98 | 0.88 | 4.29 | 3.91 | NYM | 100 | 83 | 93 | 19.1% | 7.2% | 21.8% | 14.7% | 11.8% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.6 | 4.18 | 6.08 | 1.06 | 0.85 | 4.45 | 3.78 | SEA | 101 | 96 | 106 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 19.3% | 9.6% | 12.3% |
| Colin Rea | SDG | -8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.84 | CIN | 82 | 92 | 52 | ||||||||
| Dan Haren | CHC | 3.2 | 3.9 | 5.88 | 0.87 | 1.05 | 4.2 | 5.24 | MIL | 86 | 90 | 108 | 18.3% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 11.4% | 10.1% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | -6.9 | 4.48 | 5.69 | 1.63 | 1.09 | 4.2 | 3.85 | ARI | 97 | 97 | 118 | 16.9% | 6.4% | 24.0% | 13.9% | 13.1% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | -2 | 3.75 | 5.6 | 0.91 | 1.05 | 3.61 | 5.12 | OAK | 91 | 96 | 109 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 20.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 9.6 | 4.21 | 5.18 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 4.5 | 4.2 | ATL | 84 | 89 | 85 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 21.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3 | 4.33 | 5.37 | 0.66 | 1.08 | 4.36 | 4.13 | CHW | 86 | 71 | 105 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 21.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -4.5 | 4.19 | 5.7 | 1.94 | 0.98 | 4.11 | 4.08 | STL | 103 | 87 | 68 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 21.4% | 14.5% | 7.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 3.1 | 4.14 | 5.07 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 4.22 | 5.86 | PHI | 85 | 85 | 93 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 21.6% | 15.7% | 5.7% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -4.5 | 2.5 | 6.43 | 1.82 | 0.89 | 2.6 | 2.37 | LOS | 119 | 113 | 131 | 23.7% | 6.1% | 21.4% | 17.6% | 5.7% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 5.2 | 5.36 | 5.5 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 5.73 | BOS | 84 | 93 | 77 | ||||||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -8.5 | 4.31 | 5.62 | 1.82 | 1.05 | 3.9 | 3.83 | TOR | 127 | 108 | 113 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 20.1% | 12.2% | 7.8% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 2.3 | 4.18 | 5.88 | 2.02 | 1.05 | 3.77 | 4.55 | TEX | 95 | 100 | 97 | 17.5% | 7.2% | 20.6% | 10.8% | 6.4% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | -5.5 | 1.41 | 5. | 1 | 0.94 | 1.41 | CLE | 108 | 100 | 152 | ||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 1.7 | 3.07 | 6.51 | 1.23 | 0.87 | 3 | 2.02 | HOU | 91 | 100 | 62 | 24.5% | 6.5% | 21.4% | 12.0% | 10.4% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 3.4 | 3.42 | 6.59 | 1.21 | 0.88 | 3.25 | 2.31 | COL | 85 | 102 | 77 | 24.5% | 4.4% | 19.0% | 11.2% | 8.5% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 2.9 | 5.18 | 5.38 | 1.19 | 0.84 | 5.43 | 4.78 | SDG | 89 | 89 | 64 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 21.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | -1.7 | 3.53 | 5.92 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 3.7 | 4.38 | SFO | 111 | 99 | 107 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 20.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | -2.1 | 3.89 | 5.79 | 1.19 | 1.01 | 4.37 | 2.99 | FLA | 82 | 79 | 91 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 15.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -2.7 | 3.66 | 5.74 | 1.07 | 0.85 | 3.51 | 3.12 | BAL | 93 | 102 | 103 | 24.0% | 6.4% | 21.1% | 14.1% | 10.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | -3.8 | 3.62 | 6.47 | 1.77 | 1.05 | 3.95 | 2.51 | CHC | 86 | 90 | 126 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 21.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | -3.9 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 1.73 | 0.94 | 4.94 | 5.73 | TAM | 98 | 92 | 147 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 21.8% | 10.4% | 5.3% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 10 | 3.93 | 5.84 | 1.57 | 1.04 | 3.58 | 5.37 | DET | 103 | 106 | 92 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 20.0% | 13.1% | 9.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 2.4 | 4.02 | 5.98 | 1.71 | 1.05 | 3.75 | 5.39 | MIN | 107 | 88 | 87 | 17.5% | 6.8% | 21.9% | 13.4% | 9.3% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 4.8 | 3 | 6.58 | 1.61 | 0.89 | 2.78 | 2.59 | WAS | 98 | 95 | 129 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 8.6% |
Anibal Sanchez has a 13.6 K-BB% that’s slightly above his career rate, but he just hasn’t been able to stop making it rain HRs all season. He’s now allowed 25, good for just a 14.3 HR/FB because his 1.00 GB/FB is the lowest of his career. Perhaps he’s in a park where fly balls aren’t necessarily terrible tonight, as he’s already generated a career high number of pop ups (22) and has maintained his reasonably low BABIP from last season. That’s about as bright as it gets though. Kansas City may not hit the ball especially hard (7.2 HR/FB at home, 3.7 HR/FB over the last week), but have just a 14.4 K% at home and 15.8 K% vs RHP.
Carlos Carrasco seems to have found his form from late last season. He’s pitched consecutive complete games, allowing just three hits while striking out 14 of 59 batters, which is actually a slight drop from his season rate. He had just two walks during this span with a -16.5 Hard-Soft% and has a 21.4 K-BB% at home since last season. The Yankees are an above average offense, but are actually better against LHP than RHP and have been cold over the last week (-4.7 Hard-Soft%) and get an offensive downgrade in park tonight.
Carlos Martinez hasn’t gone past five innings or been particularly effective in either of his last two starts. Considering he’s never pitched this many innings in his professional career, you wonder if fatigue is beginning to kick in, but the velocity seems fine. Perhaps he’s now on a pitch count because he hasn’t gone over 100 in any of his last four starts. These are both things to consider as his K% and SwStr% have dropped significantly over the last month. He’s still avoiding hard contact for the most part though, maintaining a 2.8 Hard-Soft% for the season. Pittsburgh is a below average road offense (16.0 K-BB%), but average vs RHP and the hottest offense in baseball over the last week (23.5 HR/FB, 16.6 Hard-Soft%).
Chris Rusin is one of those Colorado pitchers that becomes interesting on the road in the right situation. His road numbers aren’t particularly good. In fact, he’s allowed eight of his 11 HRs on the road (21.6 HR/FB) with an 8.4 K-BB%. We’ll cover some of the things that make him slightly interesting below. The Mets struggled mightily vs LHP (24.4 K%) and are an overall great park adjusted matchup here.
Chris Tillman has seen the results continue to accumulate, although the underlying numbers have taken a step back over his last couple of starts (six strikeouts in 56 batters). He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his last three and has a -14.8 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks, so if he’s not getting swings and misses at least he’s generating weak contact. The Mariners, however, strike the ball hard. They have a 16.6 Hard-Soft% with a 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP and 19.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week, though they have a 22.9 K% at home and make for a very favorable overall park adjusted matchup.
Drew Hutchison has allowed 11 runs over his last two starts, though just six were earned, in which he struck out only six of 44 batters. As both starts were at home, perhaps all that talk about him being so much better at home than on the road is just coincidence, though the actual numbers did previously show a drastic difference in strikeout, walk, and batted ball rates. He’ll try again against an Oakland offense with just a 17.7 K% vs RHP, but also just an 8.6 HR/FB and 5.3 Hard-Soft% against them. They rate as an average opponent with the park bump.
Erasmo Ramirez has hit a rough patched with 14 runs (11 earned) over his last three starts with a decreased K% over the last month that we’re going to talk about later. The Braves could further hinder that strikeout rate (17.1 K% vs RHP), but also have just a 7.6 HR/FB and 5.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. They are one of the worst road offenses in baseball and rate as a great park adjusted matchup here.
Jeff Locke has not pitched well over the last month and has just a 9.2 K-BB% despite a league average SwStr%, but has managed contact well (4.4 Hard-Soft%) and finds himself in potentially a better spot that many realize tonight. The Cardinals have struggled against LHP, backed up by a 23.4 K% and 4.2 Hard-Soft%. Additionally, they’ve struggled over the last week as well (23.7 K%) and have just an 8.0 HR/FB at home. Although they are a nearly neutral offense at home, the overall situation finds itself in favor of the pitcher here.
Joe Ross doesn’t have a large enough body of work to be labelled elite yet, but through seven starts that’s been just what the numbers so far suggest with a 24.4 K-BB%. They grow sliders well in that Ross household. He does have a bit of an issue with hard contact so far (17.9 Hard-Soft%), but that hasn’t hurt so much with so few batters reaching base ahead of it. Like his brother, he has enormous splits so far, with all four HRs and a wOBA 200 points higher going to LHBs. The Dodgers are the #2 offense at home (14.1 HR/FB) and vs RHP (14.7 HR/FB) and rate as a slightly unfavorable matchup even with the park downgrade, but are a little lighter up top without Kendrick and Turner and Joc Pederson tanking.
Luis Severino struck out seven of 18 batters in his debut, with a -9.1 Hard-Soft%. That’s pretty dominant. Immediately, he most favorably compared to Michael Pineda to the naked eye, though his control wasn’t as pin point in the minors (but not bad). A patient Cleveland team could test the young pitcher more. They are a good home offense and scorching over the last week, remaining a slightly unfavorable matchup even with the park adjustment.
Madison Bumgarner has struck out at least seven in eight of his last 10 starts, also allowing two ERs or less in eight of those starts as well. His 20.7 K-BB% this year slightly improves on his career best mark last year. A home matchup with the Astros should slightly boost his strikeout rate, though they whiff less on the road (23%) and vs LHP (22.4%). The park should mute their power somewhat and turn this into a very favorable matchup for the pitcher.
Matt Harvey has gone at least seven innings with a maximum of two ERs in each of his last five starts, though the SwStr% has been just average over the last month. More positively, he hasn’t walked a batter or allowed a HR in his last two starts in which he’s done a better job of limiting hard contact (5.6 Hard-Soft%). He has a 19.8 K-BB% in 10 home starts this year and a strong park adjusted matchup against a weak road team (18.7 K-BB%), though they do lean strongly left-handed these days and hit RHP well (14.8 HR/FB with a 13.0 HR/FB on the road).
Scott Kazmir allowed his first runs in his 3rd start as an Astro, though three of the four were unearned. There is a large discrepancy between his ERA and estimators, but that doesn’t mean he’s unusable in the right situation with a respectable 14.0 K-BB%. A matchup with a good home offense, but just an average one vs LHP in a great pitching environment might be such a spot, as it generates an overall park adjusted matchup in his favor. The Giants have just a 7.2 HR/FB at home. Kazmir has just a 6.5 HR/FB this year, mostly in Oakland.
Steven Wright has struck out 17 of 58 batters, pitching 15 strong innings over his last two starts. Though he’s allowed 12 HR in just under 70 innings this year, the big park in Miami should play in his favor tonight. The opposing offense certainly will. They are the worst offense at home and vs RHP, making for a great matchup with little park adjustment necessary tonight. Miami has just a 2.0 HR/FB over the last week.
Taijuan Walker has blown up nearly every time I’ve relented and put in some time and effort on him. So maybe this is your cue to stack Baltimore tonight. He has a 26.9 K% at home since last season, but with a 14.7 HR/FB. The Orioles have a similar 14.7 HR/FB vs RHP, it reduces on the road, while their 23.5 K% away from Baltimore should play up and is the reason for optimism here. They are an overall favorable park adjusted matchup.
Taylor Jungmann struck out a career high eight in his last start and at least seven in four of his last five, while allowing more than two ERs in only one of his 11 starts. While his current success is debatable, and we will debate it below, a 14.0 K-BB% is respectable and you can’t argue that he’s been bad while limiting contact authority to a 4.0 Hard-Soft%. A home matchup with a hot Cubs offense (21.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week) could be dangerous, their ineptness on the road this season makes this more of a neutral matchup even with the significant park bump. The most favorable aspect here is their 24.0 K% on the road and matching 24.3 K% vs RHP.
Zack Greinke has strangely been unable to sustain his sub-.200 July BABIP in August (.375 so far), but the guy is still pretty damn good, increasing both his K% and SwStr% over the last month. He has an 18.9 K-BB% and 1.7 Hard-Soft% for the season with a 21.6 K-BB% at home since last season. The Washington bats have woken up the past couple of days, but still rate as a favorable park adjusted matchup here and strike out slightly more than the average team.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Yovani Gallardo (.276 BABIP – 74.3 LOB% – 8.6 HR/FB) – While the HR rate isn’t really absurd, it’s well below his career rate and a 6.5 K-BB% that’s half his career rate suggests a very low ceiling.
Dan Haren (.250 BABIP – 82.5 LOB% – 11.4 HR/FB) – He has very little upside with a 5.9 SwStr% and 0.63 GB/FB in a tough park.
Hector Santiago (.264 BABIP – 86.7 LOB% – 9.6 HR/FB) – As usual, it’s just the strand rate that I quibble with. I’m willing to accept the BABIP under current circumstances.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kyle Gibson has struggled greatly since the All-Star break and doesn’t have a particularly good matchup tonight.
Carlos Rodon has a nice strikeout rate and potentially a great future, but is of little use to us while generating a 12.9 BB% that rarely gets him past five innings.
Justin Nicolino was ranked the #3 prospect in a weak system back in January by Fangraphs, but has shown no ability to miss bats above A ball. He had just a 4.8 SwStr% in two starts in June this year.
Colin Rea is a 12th rounder from 2011 with 101.2 innings above A ball in which he’s displayed a mediocre strikeout rate and frequent control issues. This is who you have to start when you trade away your entire farm system for Matt Kemp and Justin Upton and then suck.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 21.8% | 6.7% | Road | 20.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 7.5% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 26.4% | 5.4% | Home | 26.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 3.4% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 23.1% | 9.1% | Home | 22.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.9% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 23.2% | 12.9% | Home | 21.4% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 14.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 14.1% | 7.2% | Road | 14.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 18.3% | 7.7% | Road | 17.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 18.5% | 4.7% | Home | 16.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 13.3% | 7.1% | Road | 14.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 1.9% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.0% | 7.4% | Home | 24.3% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 6.8% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 18.1% | 8.3% | Home | 19.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 19.9% | 9.0% | Road | 19.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 4.1% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 16.9% | 8.8% | Road | 17.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 9.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 18.6% | 7.4% | Home | 18.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.3% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 26.7% | 2.3% | Road | 26.3% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 2.1% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | 9.3% | 7.0% | Home | 11.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 15.3% | 7.6% | Road | 17.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 15.2% | 7.7% | Home | 15.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 38.9% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 38.9% | 0.0% | ||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 25.1% | 5.2% | Home | 26.6% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 22.5% | 5.2% | Home | 23.8% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 16.1% | 12.8% | Road | 13.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 14.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 22.6% | 6.7% | Road | 21.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 18.9% | 7.0% | Road | 17.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.9% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.6% | 7.4% | Home | 26.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 6.8% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 21.4% | 7.4% | Road | 19.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 3.8% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 15.9% | 10.7% | Road | 13.6% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 19.6% | 8.4% | Home | 21.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 17.4% | 7.5% | Road | 16.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 24.5% | 5.1% | Home | 26.1% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 5.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 14.4% | 6.1% | RH | 15.8% | 5.9% | L7Days | 14.5% | 7.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.5% | 8.2% | RH | 18.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.6% | 6.6% | RH | 20.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 9.2% |
| Angels | Road | 18.6% | 7.2% | LH | 18.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% |
| Mets | Home | 20.2% | 8.3% | LH | 24.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.9% | 7.8% | RH | 21.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.8% | 7.4% | RH | 18.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | RH | 20.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 10.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.4% | 8.3% | RH | 20.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.1% | 7.8% | RH | 17.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.3% |
| Braves | Road | 17.7% | 6.8% | RH | 17.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 6.8% | LH | 21.7% | 5.7% | L7Days | 16.6% | 6.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.6% | 8.5% | LH | 23.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.7% | 5.7% | RH | 19.4% | 5.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 5.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 8.4% | RH | 20.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.7% | 7.9% | LH | 20.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 15.9% | 9.8% | RH | 18.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 22.0% | 7.0% | RH | 19.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.5% | 6.2% |
| Indians | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | RH | 18.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.9% |
| Astros | Road | 23.0% | 7.3% | LH | 22.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.4% | 5.7% | RH | 20.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 5.0% |
| Padres | Home | 23.1% | 6.1% | RH | 21.8% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 4.6% |
| Giants | Home | 17.7% | 7.2% | LH | 19.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.0% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | RH | 19.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 14.9% | 8.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.5% | 6.3% | RH | 22.2% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 3.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.0% | 9.3% | RH | 24.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.6% |
| Rays | Home | 23.1% | 7.1% | RH | 22.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 7.0% | RH | 19.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.9% |
| Twins | Home | 19.0% | 6.6% | RH | 21.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.9% | 8.0% | RH | 21.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 12.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 20.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | Road | 20.0% | 11.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 16.7% | 12.5% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 18.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | Home | 19.1% | 11.4% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | Home | 19.6% | 11.1% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 27.1% | 10.8% | 6.2% | Home | 28.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 22.8% | 15.4% | 11.1% | Road | 21.8% | 17.6% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 19.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | Road | 19.5% | 9.8% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 19.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | Home | 19.0% | 8.8% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 20.5% | 10.3% | 14.5% | Road | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 33.3% | 22.2% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 21.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | Home | 20.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 5.9% | 11.8% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.5% | 11.6% | 10.4% | Home | 19.9% | 11.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.9% | 8.5% | 12.0% | Road | 20.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 22.5% | 13.0% | 6.9% | Road | 20.9% | 15.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 11.9% | 4.9% | Home | 19.6% | 10.8% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 18.6% | 11.8% | 2.9% | Road | 20.8% | 21.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | 22.9% | 7.7% | 0.0% | Home | 28.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 22.3% | 12.6% | 5.3% | Road | 23.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 20.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | Home | 22.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 9.1% | 20.0% | 20.0% | Road | L14 Days | 9.1% | 20.0% | 20.0% | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | Home | 24.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 17.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | Home | 19.1% | 11.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 25.1% | 16.0% | 5.3% | Road | 25.6% | 16.2% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 20.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | Road | 21.7% | 11.0% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.8% | Road | 14.1% | 16.4% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.8% | 12.0% | 11.5% | Home | 19.6% | 14.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 19.0% | 3.5% | 7.0% | Road | 14.9% | 5.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.6% | Road | 20.2% | 8.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 20.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | Home | 18.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 20.4% | 10.8% | 6.1% | Road | 19.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 21.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | Home | 21.1% | 11.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 21.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | RH | 21.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 3.7% | 12.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.1% | 11.8% | 8.6% | RH | 21.2% | 13.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 13.7% | 8.6% | 25.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | RH | 21.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 23.5% | 2.9% |
| Angels | Road | 17.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% | LH | 18.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 12.3% | 12.1% | LH | 21.0% | 11.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.3% | 11.8% | 7.6% | RH | 20.2% | 12.3% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | RH | 20.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 12.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | RH | 21.0% | 10.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 13.3% | 11.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | RH | 21.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 27.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Braves | Road | 22.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | RH | 22.3% | 7.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.7% | 11.8% | 9.2% | LH | 22.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | LH | 19.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | RH | 22.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 15.5% | 6.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.5% | 14.1% | 8.3% | RH | 21.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 28.5% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.7% | 9.0% | 11.8% | LH | 20.6% | 10.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.6% | 5.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.5% | 15.3% | 14.4% | RH | 18.8% | 14.2% | 13.0% | L7Days | 20.1% | 22.6% | 11.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.9% | 11.7% | 8.5% | RH | 19.0% | 10.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Indians | Home | 22.9% | 8.6% | 10.5% | RH | 20.8% | 10.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Astros | Road | 21.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% | LH | 20.2% | 13.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.9% | 15.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.5% | 13.0% | 9.4% | RH | 21.5% | 14.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.2% | 18.0% | 9.8% |
| Padres | Home | 19.7% | 10.8% | 7.1% | RH | 19.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.1% | 10.7% |
| Giants | Home | 20.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | LH | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | RH | 19.9% | 9.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 2.0% | 7.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | RH | 21.0% | 14.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | RH | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.6% | 3.8% |
| Rays | Home | 21.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | RH | 21.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 17.5% | 5.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.1% | 11.9% | 7.2% | RH | 21.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.1% | 14.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 12.2% | 11.2% | RH | 20.6% | 9.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.3% | 13.6% | 9.9% | RH | 20.8% | 12.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 16.4% | 9.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 21.1% | 9.4% | 2.24 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.05 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.1% | 13.3% | 2.04 | 25.2% | 12.5% | 2.02 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 24.2% | 9.7% | 2.49 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 2.57 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 23.2% | 10.5% | 2.21 | 23.9% | 11.8% | 2.03 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 15.5% | 9.2% | 1.68 | 17.4% | 9.7% | 1.79 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 16.8% | 7.8% | 2.15 | 17.3% | 9.9% | 1.75 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | ||||||
| Dan Haren | CHC | 16.6% | 5.9% | 2.81 | 11.7% | 6.5% | 1.80 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 11.4% | 6.8% | 1.68 | 12.8% | 7.5% | 1.71 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 19.8% | 9.6% | 2.06 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 1.48 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.2% | 12.2% | 1.57 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 1.35 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 22.5% | 8.8% | 2.56 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 2.61 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.9% | 9.4% | 1.90 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.72 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 19.1% | 10.6% | 1.80 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 1.72 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 26.7% | 13.0% | 2.05 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 1.97 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.94 | |||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.0% | 7.6% | 1.97 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 1.81 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 16.8% | 9.4% | 1.79 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 1.79 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 38.9% | 10.6% | 3.67 | 38.9% | 10.6% | 3.67 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 25.1% | 12.1% | 2.07 | 25.5% | 11.8% | 2.16 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 23.5% | 11.1% | 2.12 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 2.38 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 16.1% | 8.5% | 1.89 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 1.82 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.05 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 1.65 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 16.8% | 9.5% | 1.77 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 2.31 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.22 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 2.08 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.64 | 25.4% | 8.7% | 2.92 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 15.9% | 5.6% | 2.84 | 8.8% | 7.0% | 1.26 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.04 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 1.71 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 15.4% | 6.8% | 2.26 | 9.0% | 6.8% | 1.32 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 23.5% | 11.4% | 2.06 | 26.8% | 12.0% | 2.23 |
Chris Rusin – The first thing that makes him interesting is a nearly average SwStr% and the fact that both that and his K% have increased over the last month. This, combined with the rate at which his opponent today, the Mets, strike out against LHP, gives him some upside.
Chris Tillman has a deceptive 9.9 SwStr% over the last month. He had a 17.0 SwStr% against Detroit followed up by 6.5% and 5.3% in his last two starts.
Drew Hutchison has struck out just a total of 13 batters in four starts since the All-Star break, but has seen no decline in his SwStr% and only the first start was below 8%.
Erasmo Ramirez has had issues reaching his potential in strikeouts all season, but it’s gotten even worse over the last month where he’s matched the strikeout rate of Jon Niese despite maintaining a double digit SwStr%. However, his last start was his lowest SwStr rate of the season (6.1%), though the three preceding it post All-Star break were all in double digits. Rene Rivera is an above average framer, though Curt Casali is a bit less.
Jeff Locke – A 6.9 SwStr% in his last start snaps a string of six straight starts above 9%, five of which were in double digits. His K% hasn’t changed despite a one point rise in SwStr% since the All-Star break.
Scott Kazmir – A bit of good news is that we can probably disregard the drop in K% since the break. He’s generated at least a 9.0 SwStr% in each of his four starts. The Houston catching staff should actually give him a bump in strikeouts as they are one of the better framing units as opposed to a more average Oakland one (though Josh Phegley has shown some talent this year).
Taijuan Walker – The increase in SwStr% over the last month was more of an up and down type thing. Here are his marks starting with the oldest: 19.5%, 6.4%, 8.2%, 16.8%, 9.9%.
Taylor Jungmann benefits from a strong Milwaukee catching staff in Lucroy and Maldonado (combined +9.6 RAA via StatCorner.com), so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that his K/SwStr so far has been on the higher end of the range, but it’s going to be very difficult to continue getting a quarter of his batters with a below average SwStr% as has been the case for the last month. A 12.2 SwStr% in his last start was a career high though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 4.82 | 3.93 | -0.89 | 3.93 | -0.89 | 4.47 | -0.35 | 5.58 | 4.22 | -1.36 | 4.33 | -1.25 | 4.93 | -0.65 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.76 | 2.79 | -0.97 | 2.76 | -1 | 2.81 | -0.95 | 2.57 | 2.56 | -0.01 | 2.69 | 0.12 | 2.7 | 0.13 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.57 | 3.49 | 0.92 | 3.35 | 0.78 | 3.48 | 0.91 | 2.86 | 4.04 | 1.18 | 4.18 | 1.32 | 3.42 | 0.56 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 5 | 4.23 | -0.77 | 4.01 | -0.99 | 4 | -1 | 9.33 | 3.86 | -5.47 | 4.3 | -5.03 | 4.96 | -4.37 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 4.66 | 3.92 | -0.74 | 3.76 | -0.9 | 4.47 | -0.19 | 5.87 | 3.46 | -2.41 | 3.15 | -2.72 | 3.8 | -2.07 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.35 | 4.56 | 0.21 | 4.49 | 0.14 | 4.02 | -0.33 | 0.38 | 3.79 | 3.41 | 3.69 | 3.31 | 2.55 | 2.17 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | ||||||||||||||
| Dan Haren | CHC | 3.49 | 4.45 | 0.96 | 4.64 | 1.15 | 4.74 | 1.25 | 4.03 | 5.45 | 1.42 | 5.75 | 1.72 | 6.79 | 2.76 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 7.23 | 5.09 | -2.14 | 4.91 | -2.32 | 4.75 | -2.48 | 5.56 | 4.35 | -1.21 | 3.99 | -1.57 | 4.2 | -1.36 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 5.42 | 4 | -1.42 | 4.07 | -1.35 | 4.02 | -1.4 | 5.85 | 4.9 | -0.95 | 5.21 | -0.64 | 5.75 | -0.1 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.83 | 3.91 | 0.08 | 4 | 0.17 | 3.8 | -0.03 | 4.5 | 4.12 | -0.38 | 3.95 | -0.55 | 3.43 | -1.07 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.78 | 3.95 | 1.17 | 4.37 | 1.59 | 4.11 | 1.33 | 5.14 | 3.61 | -1.53 | 4.26 | -0.88 | 5.05 | -0.09 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.31 | 4.13 | -0.18 | 3.9 | -0.41 | 3.91 | -0.4 | 5.48 | 4.36 | -1.12 | 3.97 | -1.51 | 4.49 | -0.99 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 5.06 | 4.05 | -1.01 | 4.04 | -1.02 | 4.48 | -0.58 | 5.14 | 4.26 | -0.88 | 4.35 | -0.79 | 6.29 | 1.15 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 2.8 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 2.48 | -0.32 | 2.57 | -0.23 | 2.92 | 2.74 | -0.18 | 2.79 | -0.13 | 3.75 | 0.83 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 4.09 | 5.36 | 1.27 | 5.14 | 1.05 | 4.65 | 0.56 | |||||||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 3.9 | 4.44 | 0.54 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 4.52 | 0.62 | 6.16 | 4.23 | -1.93 | 4.21 | -1.95 | 5.68 | -0.48 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.78 | 4.04 | 0.26 | 3.87 | 0.09 | 4.11 | 0.33 | 6.52 | 3.86 | -2.66 | 3.76 | -2.76 | 3.93 | -2.59 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 1.8 | 1.41 | -0.39 | 1.72 | -0.08 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.41 | -0.39 | 1.72 | -0.08 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.28 | 3.1 | -0.18 | 3.13 | -0.15 | 3.16 | -0.12 | 3.08 | 2.85 | -0.23 | 2.69 | -0.39 | 2.38 | -0.7 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2.76 | 3.39 | 0.63 | 3.46 | 0.7 | 3.47 | 0.71 | 1.77 | 3.59 | 1.82 | 3.72 | 1.95 | 3.3 | 1.53 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 4.84 | 5.18 | 0.34 | 5.04 | 0.2 | 5.73 | 0.89 | 10 | 5.03 | -4.97 | 5.6 | -4.4 | 5.71 | -4.29 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 2.08 | 3.8 | 1.72 | 3.72 | 1.64 | 3.16 | 1.08 | 0.63 | 4.38 | 3.75 | 4.31 | 3.68 | 3.03 | 2.4 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 4.12 | 4.37 | 0.25 | 4.65 | 0.53 | 5.01 | 0.89 | 4.07 | 3.87 | -0.2 | 4.23 | 0.16 | 5.03 | 0.96 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.67 | 3.54 | -1.13 | 3.73 | -0.94 | 4.22 | -0.45 | 5.12 | 3.17 | -1.95 | 3.21 | -1.91 | 3.92 | -1.2 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 2.26 | 3.62 | 1.36 | 3.66 | 1.4 | 2.89 | 0.63 | 2.08 | 3.37 | 1.29 | 3.24 | 1.16 | 2.18 | 0.1 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 4.48 | 4.7 | 0.22 | 4.81 | 0.33 | 4.59 | 0.11 | 12.19 | 5.73 | -6.46 | 6.38 | -5.81 | 5.71 | -6.48 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 5.29 | 3.96 | -1.33 | 3.94 | -1.35 | 4.13 | -1.16 | 7.04 | 4.09 | -2.95 | 4.14 | -2.9 | 4.8 | -2.24 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.47 | 4.53 | 1.06 | 4.32 | 0.85 | 4.02 | 0.55 | 6.93 | 5.83 | -1.1 | 5.7 | -1.23 | 6.14 | -0.79 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.71 | 3.17 | 1.46 | 3.15 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 0.92 | 3.1 | 2.91 | -0.19 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 2.41 | -0.69 |
Aaron Sanchez can’t quit giving up the bombs and even his BABIP skills have abandoned him over the last month (.351), mostly due to a 24% line drive rate.
Carlos Carrasco – Obviously, with just three hits over his last two games, the BABIP has taken a major dive and is within the range you’d expect it to be. In fact, his LOB% and HR/FB are within the standard range as well, but all are close enough to the edges of those ranges that his ERA is still a run above his estimators. These last two starts have pulled his hard hit rate down below 30% too for the first time this year. I never thought he’d have a chance of pulling his BABIP below .300 and his ERA below 3.50 this year, but if he keeps doing this, there’s a chance.
Carlos Martinez has benefited from an 83.6 LOB% this season, but in three starts (four appearances) since the All-Star break, it’s been a greatly reduced 4.8 HR/FB that’s saved his butt despite a .366 BABIP, although we can hardly call that deserved with a 1.71 GB/FB, 16.2 LD%, and 0.0 Hard-Soft%. That’s been necessary with just a 10.0 K-BB% over the last month.
Chris Rusin – Let’s break this down to home/away so we can cover the next thing that makes him interesting. There’s not much to say about his poor K-BB% and HR/FB on the road, which was covered above. However, his .351 road BABIP comes with a 1.84 GB/FB and -1.5 Hard-Soft%. He’s actually generating a ton of weak ground balls on the road. The Rockies have a terrible overall team BABIP allowed, but their infield is considered gold glove caliber at 2nd and 3rd base, so it’s not easy to understand what’s going on here. This makes you think there should be some improvement here as he accumulates more innings.
Chris Tillman – Although he’s pitched much better than his start to the season, he’s obviously out-running his peripherals again, much like last season, over the last month in which he’s had a .188 BABIP and 85.7 LOB% without allowing a HR.
Drew Hutchison – In the past we’ve treated this as a home/away thing and he still has some major splits (15.6 K-BB% at home, 9.6% away) with a BABIP that’s 125 points lower and LOB% 14.2 points higher at home. Both the home numbers are the more sustainable ones. The 6.0 HR/FB at home is probably not though. A GB% 10 points higher at home comes almost directly from his LD% instead of the FB%, which is nearly the same both home and away.
Jeff Locke has a 15.8 HR/FB over the last month, which has no doubt played a part in a 62.0 LOB%. His BABIP has actually reduced to .273. His non-FIP estimators haven’t changed much.
Matt Harvey has essentially been boosted by a .204 BABIP over his last five starts that has his season rate down to .256. All of his indicators have been above average though (16.8 LD%, 1.14 GB/FB with an 11.0 IFFB%, 83.2 Z-Contact%) and the Mets defense positions itself well enough that I’m not sure this is unsustainable (the .256, not the .204).
Scott Kazmir has been boosted more by the park in Oakland than the defense in his .249 BABIP and I think that’s something I’ve failed to realize and explain this year up until now. I’d often wondered why the Oakland defense rated so poorly, but had a low team BABIP allowed and the reason must be the amount of foul ground in the park turning so many balls into outs without a chance to become hits. It’s either an out or it’s foul. The advantage he’ll gain in Houston is more about positioning and park, but it might not hurt him as much because he didn’t generate a ton of pop ups anyway. However, that’s not really an argument in favor of the sustainability of a .249 BABIP. The park probably will hurt him in terms of his 6.5 HR/FB. He had a more normal mark before signing in Oakland despite being in pitcher’s parks his entire career. It shouldn’t hurt tonight in a very favorable park though.
Taijuan Walker owes his ERA being more in line with his FIP to a 14.2 HR/FB with a 0.95 GB/FB. Safeco has treated him similarly to Hisashi Iwakuma in that regard.
Taylor Jungmann has benefited from a 3.5 HR/FB. A GB rate above 50% is going to help him keep his HRs down, but that is just a completely unsustainable HR rate, especially in Chicago.
Zack Greinke – Not that a .236 is ever sustainable if your name isn’t Cueto or Young, but he has a career .301 rate and hasn’t seen any real change in his batted ball rates, though he is inducing some overall weaker contact this year (1.7 Hard-Soft% vs 11% career). An 84.8 LOB% is 10 point above his career average and his 6.2 HR/FB is the 2nd lowest of his career. He’s been a top five pitcher in the NL even with some regression, but maybe a notch below the Cy Young candidate his ERA paints him as.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.304 | 0.278 | -0.026 | 12.8% | 85.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.298 | 0.309 | 0.011 | 5.7% | 84.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.287 | 0.303 | 0.016 | 7.9% | 88.1% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.317 | 0.360 | 0.043 | 6.2% | 86.6% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.313 | 0.348 | 0.035 | 9.5% | 87.8% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.288 | 0.290 | 0.002 | 16.3% | 88.2% |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 0.295 | ||||
| Dan Haren | CHC | 0.290 | 0.250 | -0.04 | 13.4% | 92.0% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 0.321 | 0.351 | 0.03 | 15.7% | 91.5% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.280 | 0.354 | 0.074 | 13.6% | 85.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.279 | 0.255 | -0.024 | 15.5% | 82.5% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.281 | 0.264 | -0.017 | 10.1% | 85.7% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.306 | 0.307 | 0.001 | 4.4% | 86.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.290 | 0.299 | 0.009 | 4.7% | 86.4% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.308 | 0.277 | -0.031 | 2.9% | 86.3% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 0.291 | 0.265 | -0.026 | 0.0% | 87.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.281 | 0.303 | 0.022 | 5.3% | 91.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.300 | 0.289 | -0.011 | 7.6% | 89.5% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.295 | 0.100 | -0.195 | 20.0% | 82.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.290 | 0.299 | 0.009 | 13.9% | 87.6% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.283 | 0.256 | -0.027 | 11.0% | 83.2% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.280 | 0.285 | 0.005 | 5.3% | 87.3% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.282 | 0.249 | -0.033 | 4.8% | 85.9% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.306 | 0.248 | -0.058 | 4.3% | 80.9% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.291 | 0.289 | -0.002 | 10.8% | 84.2% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 0.302 | 0.277 | -0.025 | 7.0% | 89.6% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.306 | 0.319 | 0.013 | 3.6% | 91.1% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.279 | 0.309 | 0.03 | 8.0% | 90.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.293 | 0.276 | -0.017 | 7.0% | 88.9% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.303 | 0.236 | -0.067 | 10.9% | 85.4% |
Joe Ross – On most teams, you wouldn’t concern yourself much with a .277 BABIP, but he doesn’t generate many pop ups and has some weak defenders behind him. Lefties have a .340 BABIP, while righties have just a .227.
Steven Wright – Knuckleball BABIPs are funny and don’t often conform to the rules of the rest of baseball society.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Joe Ross (3t) has seen his cost rise in a couple of places, but is still not among the elite, though those are the numbers he’s been putting up. The Dodgers are still very formidable offense even in a weakened state, but a 24.4 K% should probably be taken advantage most times when the cost isn’t even in the top five. The downside here is that the Dodgers like to play the platoon matchups.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Carrasco (2) has been on fire and gets a tough team, but in Cleveland where they should be less dangerous and even a favorable matchup as they’ve gone suddenly cold. Not many realize that they’ve been worse against RHP than LHP this year.
Madison Bumgarner (1) is my top overall pitcher with the top projected strikeout rate (though not by a blowout) at home in a matchup against the Astros where their power shouldn’t be as dangerous.
Steven Wright has the knuckler dancing in recent starts and has a great matchup at a great price on most sites tonight. The Marlins can barely hit a fastball. How the hell are they gonna hit a knuckleball?
Value Tier Three
Taijuan Walker has as much upside as anybody in his potential strikeout rate tonight, but everything else might be a mystery. Safeco hasn’t exactly benefited him as much as one might expect.
Matt Harvey (5) has looked better in recent starts if still not entirely his pre-TJS self. The Rockies are a good matchup at home, although CarGo has been smoking balls in every park since the All-Star break. He’s been better at home than on the road, though this isn’t entirely risk free at a high price.
Zack Greinke (3t) – The high price tag and an ERA well below his estimators might limit his potential value here, but he’s increased his K% since the All-Star break and I have him inside the top five tonight. The Nationals have begun to hit the ball better recently though.
Luis Severino – I’m really guessing where to slot him today (although they’re all essentially guesses). You can’t expect a repeat of a nearly immaculate debut and Cleveland’s patience could give him more trouble, but he has plenty of upside with little budge in his DraftKings price tag.
Value Tier Three A
Chris Rusin may be worth the DDS (Dumpster Diving Special) tonight at the near minimum price on the road in a good park and with a legitimate SwStr%, although the road hasn’t favored him so far.
Taylor Jungmann may not be as good as his ERA and the favorable hitting environment might scare you, but that should be balanced by the upside in his K% against the Cubs, who whiff nearly a quarter of the time on the road and vs RHP.
Erasmo Ramirez has struggled a bit lately and may not reach the potential in his SwStr% against a team that makes contact tonight, but it’s generally weak contact. They’re a bad offense that’s been even worse without their best hitter. It’s barely a major league lineup they’re currently putting out there.
Carlos Martinez – I have a bit less confidence in him that normal today. These are just guesses, but I wonder if the Cardinals are concerned about his workload at this point and have him on a stricter pitch count. And while the matchup is fine, the Pirates have been the hottest offense in the league over the last week.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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