Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, August 25th
The bad news is that whether you went deGrom or Iwakuma last night, you got zonked. The good news is that everybody went deGrom and Iwakuma last night, so you still had a chance depending on your offense and secondary pitchers. The bad news today is that there is not a lot of pretty on the mound and a few of the more attractive options aren’t in great spots. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of low end upsiders here either. It’s hold your nose, pick and pray with a lot of middle and back end of the rotation guys just trying to hold onto a job. There are a few exceptions we might be able to get something out of though and, as always, most pitchers can be useful at a certain price and that’s the type of day it’s shaping up to be.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.8 | 3.7 | 6.08 | 1.49 | 1.02 | 3.77 | 5.59 | CIN | 101 | 103 | 97 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 23.7% | 11.1% | 10.3% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 4.2 | 4.39 | 6.06 | 1.42 | 1.05 | 3.97 | 5.1 | ANA | 91 | 99 | 85 | 16.6% | 7.2% | 18.5% | 9.1% | 14.1% |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 4.3 | 4.22 | 5.44 | 1.6 | 1.01 | 3.9 | 3.16 | PIT | 92 | 98 | 119 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 21.0% | 11.5% | 4.8% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -2.8 | 4.21 | 5.57 | 1.57 | 0.98 | 4.36 | ATL | 91 | 86 | 87 | ||||||
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -3.4 | 3.79 | 6. | 2.58 | 1.01 | 3.77 | 2.44 | FLA | 83 | 80 | 97 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 19.6% | 12.4% | 9.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -0.9 | 2.99 | 6.9 | 3.46 | 1.02 | 3.26 | 2.76 | NYY | 112 | 114 | 84 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 19.6% | 9.9% | 14.7% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 10.2 | 4.65 | 5.51 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 4.98 | 4.83 | BAL | 89 | 95 | 74 | 18.3% | 7.0% | 22.6% | 7.5% | 12.7% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 2.9 | 4.02 | 5.73 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 3.43 | 2.49 | TOR | 104 | 127 | 153 | 18.2% | 5.6% | 21.4% | 13.7% | 8.0% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.6 | 3.95 | 6.28 | 1.21 | 0.94 | 3.79 | 4.87 | TAM | 99 | 91 | 76 | 19.0% | 7.0% | 20.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -5.2 | 4.42 | 5.91 | 1.73 | 1.02 | 4.66 | 4.26 | HOU | 88 | 99 | 54 | 20.1% | 6.6% | 19.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.7 | 3.04 | 6.53 | 3.03 | 1.09 | 3.23 | 2.81 | ARI | 100 | 98 | 108 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 18.7% | 9.9% | 8.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.1 | 3.09 | 6.41 | 1.85 | 0.87 | 2.66 | 1.54 | SFO | 112 | 110 | 77 | 22.2% | 7.2% | 19.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% |
| James Shields | SDG | -8.2 | 3.46 | 6.45 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 3.52 | 3.74 | WAS | 95 | 96 | 139 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 20.6% | 11.1% | 7.6% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3.3 | 4.35 | 6.33 | 0.7 | 1.05 | 5.11 | 4.38 | DET | 110 | 105 | 158 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 20.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | -4.9 | 4.27 | 5.46 | 1.5 | 1.01 | 3.95 | 4.23 | NYM | 89 | 94 | 198 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 22.8% | 19.0% | 7.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -8.4 | 3.69 | 6. | 1.17 | 0.85 | 3.68 | 2.49 | SEA | 102 | 98 | 98 | 24.6% | 6.8% | 21.3% | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 3 | 2.7 | 5.55 | 0.83 | 1.02 | 1.2 | 2.7 | LOS | 99 | 108 | 34 | 26.7% | 6.0% | 29.7% | 14.4% | 15.5% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -7.4 | 3.59 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 1.08 | 3.28 | 4.71 | BOS | 86 | 105 | 137 | 18.6% | 6.4% | 24.0% | 7.1% | 10.1% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -1.3 | 3.33 | 5.9 | 1.04 | 0.94 | 3.26 | 3.42 | MIL | 84 | 89 | 129 | 21.2% | 5.1% | 20.4% | 15.0% | 8.7% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | -1.6 | 4.34 | 6.35 | 1.41 | 1.08 | 4.14 | 5.17 | TEX | 99 | 90 | 60 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 2.2 | 4.29 | 5.93 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 4 | 3.91 | CHC | 95 | 95 | 156 | 21.5% | 7.8% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 8.3% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | -2.9 | 4.43 | 5.88 | 1.82 | 0.85 | 4.26 | 4.63 | OAK | 93 | 91 | 121 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 14.8% | 10.9% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 7.7 | 4.38 | 5.88 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 4.31 | 4.15 | KAN | 108 | 104 | 101 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 20.3% | 13.4% | 9.8% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -2.3 | 4.24 | 5.64 | 0.7 | 0.98 | 5.11 | 3.54 | COL | 81 | 95 | 91 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 24.1% | 17.1% | 9.4% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 9.4 | 3.77 | 5.69 | 1.17 | 0.94 | 4.02 | 3.92 | MIN | 75 | 89 | 79 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 21.6% | 14.8% | 17.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2 | 3.16 | 6.12 | 1.26 | 1.01 | 3.53 | 3.95 | PHI | 90 | 86 | 132 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 22.4% | 13.6% | 9.5% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.2 | 4.19 | 5.43 | 0.96 | 1.09 | 4.16 | 5.55 | STL | 90 | 88 | 86 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 20.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -5 | 2.82 | 5.87 | 1.48 | 1.03 | 2.58 | 2.73 | SDG | 85 | 92 | 163 | 23.8% | 6.0% | 21.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -3.8 | 3.93 | 5.97 | 1.74 | 1.08 | 4.08 | 2.79 | CHW | 85 | 71 | 100 | 20.5% | 7.3% | 20.7% | 10.4% | 7.5% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -3.9 | 4 | 6.06 | 1.78 | 0.94 | 4.16 | 4.8 | CLE | 107 | 98 | 94 | 16.4% | 8.8% | 20.0% | 10.9% | 9.0% |
Brad Hand has not pitched too poorly in a starting role this season, in which just over half his innings have been accumulated this season. He hasn’t missed a lot of bats, but has been near average in most other metrics over the last month with a 2.05 GB/FB and hasn’t allowed a HR at home yet this year. The Pirates have a 22.3 K% on the road and 22.5 K% vs LHP. They represent a near neutral matchup in a near neutral run environment.
Charlie Morton must be eating his Wheaties because something really strange has happened. His GB rate has dropped every month, though it’s remained just above 50%, while his K% has gone through the roof and it’s completely supported a spike in SwStr% in August. It’s been above 9.3% in four of his last five starts, while only getting above 7.5% twice the entire year previously. His manager has called it the evolution of his curveball and indeed, Brooks Baseball seems to support its increased usage in accordance with reduced reliance on the sinker. If he’s able to neutralize lefties and add strikeouts, that’s an impressive and important transformation in his career. To add to the allure tonight, he faces the worst offense both at home and vs RHP in the majors, making this a great park adjusted matchup against the Marlins.
Dallas Keuchel has continued his success against two teams that hit LHP very well in his most recent starts (TB, DET) and that trend continues tonight as he takes on one of the best home offenses in the majors (14.2 HR/FB) and 3rd best vs LHP (9.3 K-BB%). All he does is generate weak ground balls (63.1 GB%, -3.6 Hard-Soft%) with an above average strikeout rate seemingly no matter who it is he faces. The Yankee offense has been slowed down of late (24.7 K% over the last week), but still represents a difficult park adjusted matchup.
Ervin Santana has allowed at least three ERs in five straight starts and had a total of seven strikeouts over that span before fanning six Yankees in his last start. He’s allowed seven HRs in those five starts and 11 in nine total this year. He’s had HR issues previously in his career, but this season his 5.7 K-BB% is a personal low as well. Things may not be as dire as they seem though and we’ll explore the possibilities later. He faces a below average offense vs RHP that strikes out more than average in a pitcher friendly park. They’ve struggled over the last week (2.9 Hard-Soft%) and represent a very favorable park adjusted matchup.
Jaime Garcia is a poor man’s version of Dallas Keuchel and more similar to Brett Anderson this year. While he has an equivalent 66.7 GB% with the league leading latter, his K% is slightly higher (18.8%), with a similar contact authority profile (4.0 Hard-Soft%). Keeping the ball grounded is going to be important against an offense with a decent amount of right handed power now and an overall difficult matchup in a very hitter friendly environment.
Jake Arrieta combines a 19.5 K-BB% with a 1.3 Hard-Soft%, which has allowed him to maintain the elite status he entered as a pitcher last year. He has a high floor with at least six innings and five strikeouts and no more than three ERs in any of his last eight starts. His K-BB actually rises on the road to 20.3% since last season with just a 6.1 HR/FB. He faces a good home offense and best vs RHP, but in a park that mutes their potential (7.8 HR/FB at home). In addition, they are missing several key pieces to the top and middle of the order and represent a favorable park adjusted matchup here.
James Shields has had a 15+ SwStr% over his last two starts with at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three, all at home against mostly inferior offenses though. Overall, his 17.7 K-BB% is still a career high, but unfortunately, so is his 17.1 HR/FB. He faces an average, but suddenly hot Washington offense (15.8 BB%, 15.7 HR/FB, 21.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week). It’s an unfavorable matchup in a slightly unfavorable run environment.
Jesse Chavez has lately bounced back against some tough offenses from a possible dead arm period with his velocity evening out after dropping off from earlier in the season. He’s essentially a league average pitcher when all is right and there’s not much more to say about him. Everything is essentially league average and he gets a bit of enhancement from his home park. He’s not pitching there tonight, but faces an average offense in another great environment, making it a very favorable park adjusted matchup. The Mariners do have a 17.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this season and a 23.3 HR/FB over the last week, but a 23.4 K% at home and 29.2 K% over the last week.
John Lamb has allowed eight ERs over 11.1 innings, but struck out 15 of 51 major league batters faced so far. He has shown the ability to miss bats in the minors recently, but with occasional control issues. In addition, only 11.8% of his batted balls have been hit hard in his two starts (-5.9 Hard-Soft%) despite a 33.3 LD% and .469 BABIP. He faces a tough offense in what can be a difficult environment, but they have been ice cold over the last week (0.0 Hard-Soft%, 4.2 HR/FB, 27.5 K%), including being no-hit.
Josh Tomlin has had two starts in difficult spots and acquitted himself well, striking out 11 of 49 batters and allowing just three ERs (all solo HRs) in 11.1 innings. He showed a newfound ability to miss bats last year, but it never translated to his overall results. Unfortunately, the SwStr% has dropped this year, but he has seen an improvement in results so far, due to a .121 BABIP. The jury is still out with such a small sample size, but he does have a 2.8 Hard-Soft% in his favor so far and faces a very poor offense in a favorable home park, though they’ve been a bit better lately. The overall park adjusted matchup is still a good one.
Matt Cain has pitched poorly, allowing either four or five ERs in six of his nine starts with a below average 9.3 K-BB% and 14.5 HR/FB backed up by a 21.7 Hard-Soft%. In addition, he hasn’t gone more than six innings in a start yet. The Cubs are a hot offense (28.1 HR/FB over the last week), but have retained their high strikeout rate on the road and vs RHP (24% in all three situations). It’s an overall near neutral offense in a very difficult run environment, keeping the matchup slightly in favor of the pitcher.
Nate Karns isn’t really a pitcher you generally like as much as the circumstances surrounding him in Tampa Bay with a great defense in a negative run environment. He, like all Tampa bay pitchers, hasn’t been allowed to go deep into games recently, but does have at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has an above average 14.6 K-BB% on the season. He does allow more hard contact than you like, resulting in a 12.6 HR/FB, but faces the worst road offense in the majors (15.9 K-BB%) with just a -3.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week. They are easily tonight’s top park adjusted matchup.
Noah Syndergaard has struggled early in each of his last three starts, though righted himself enough to give his team something each time. He’s tied his innings from last season and the Mets are going to keep a close eye on him, though the velocity doesn’t seem to be an issue and he’s actually increased his SwStr% over the last month. His effectiveness has been reduced on the road and that’s mostly due to a decrease in control (more walks) and much higher BABIP. Although his batted ball profile, including line drives, is exactly the same, he’s allowed a lot more hard contact on the road (16.1 Hard-Soft%). The Phillies aren’t a tough matchup, but have been hot (18.2 HR/FB over the last week) and are no longer the push-overs they’ve been most of the season.
Stephen Strasburg has struck out 25 of 73 batters, while allowing just three ERs in 20 innings since returning from injury, supported by a very healthy 13.3 SwStr%. His 21.9 K-BB% is in line with his career rate. He faces a smoking hot offense in a slightly unfavorable run environment, but they have been well below average for the season.
Wade Miley is having a poor season, but has struck out 14 of his last 55 batters with just three ERs over his last 14.1 innings. In fact, he’s allowed two ERs or less in five of his last seven starts with a solid 5.6 Hard-Soft% for the season now. Tonight, he faces the 2nd worst offense at home and vs LHP (15.6 K-BB%, 8.2 HR/FB, 5.8 Hard-Soft%). They remain a very favorable park adjusted matchup even in a difficult environment.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Robbie Ray (.304 BABIP – 71.7 LOB% – 6.1 HR/FB)
Mark Buehrle (.275 BABIP – 74.0 LOB% – 9.9 HR/FB) – None of these numbers are off, although his BABIP is 15 points below his career average. He does have a history of beating his peripherals by nearly half a run for his career, but an 11.6 K% offers you very little from a daily fantasy perspective in a near neutral matchup tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Foltynewicz almost gets consideration just for facing the Rockies away from Coors, but has been pummeled this month (seven HRs in 101 batters faced, mostly at home).
Jose Quintana is not a bad pitcher, but has struck out four or fewer in four of his last five starts and faces a much improved offense in a difficult environment.
Derek Holland pitched well in his return. This is about the powerhouse offense he’s facing.
Alex Wood immediately became interesting when after his first two Dodger starts, his SwStr% went through the roof, supported by evidence of changes in pitch usage. That interest quickly dissipated when the poor performances continued, but the new bat missing portion of his game disappeared over his next two starts.
Jerome Williams – Let me be clear. I don’t expect him to perform better than most of the pitchers below, but he has a much lower price tag.
Michael Montgomery – His HR rate and BABIP have regressed as expected. This stuff generally works.
Ivan Nova has a reduced strikeout rate and has had HR issues in the past, while facing a team with a lot of power in a very unfavorable park. While the Astros offer an opportunity for increased strikeouts, the risk probably outweighs the reward here. He’s struck out more than three in just four of his 10 starts this year.
Chad Bettis struck out seven of 18 batters in his most recent rehab start and is in a good spot tonight, but is coming off a month long DL stay due to an elbow issue and is likely to be limited to not much more than 20 batters.
Jered Weaver – Although, I’m buying into a potential improvement in K% due to his SwStr%, but really don’t like what he gives you from a DFS perspective tonight in this particular matchup.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 20.9% | 7.4% | Road | 18.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 12.8% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.3% | 7.5% | Home | 16.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Brad Hand | Marlins | 15.0% | 7.3% | Home | 15.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 3.9% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 17.2% | 8.5% | Road | 17.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 18.1% | 8.3% | Road | 18.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 5.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 20.2% | 6.1% | Road | 17.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 3.6% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 16.7% | 9.2% | Home | 15.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 4.1% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 16.6% | 4.9% | Home | 16.3% | 1.6% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 19.6% | 7.6% | Road | 19.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 6.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 14.6% | 8.0% | Home | 13.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 5.9% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 20.0% | 5.4% | Road | 18.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 3.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 25.4% | 6.9% | Road | 27.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.5% | 6.2% | Road | 21.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 11.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 17.0% | 6.0% | Road | 12.9% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 14.6% | 6.4% | Home | 18.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 21.6% | 7.3% | Road | 22.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 3.9% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 29.4% | 3.9% | Home | 32.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 3.9% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 20.7% | 5.8% | Home | 22.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 5.8% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 20.8% | 3.2% | Home | 20.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.1% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 13.2% | 4.7% | Road | 12.2% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 17.4% | 7.8% | Home | 19.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 4.3% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 16.7% | 9.4% | Home | 16.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 10.9% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 17.0% | 7.6% | Road | 17.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 19.2% | 7.6% | Home | 16.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 23.6% | 8.7% | Home | 21.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 13.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 25.9% | 5.8% | Road | 24.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 19.0% | 7.6% | Home | 19.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 27.1% | 5.4% | Home | 28.9% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 4.1% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 19.2% | 8.4% | Road | 18.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.5% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 17.3% | 7.5% | Road | 15.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 9.3% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 18.9% | 8.9% | LH | 19.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.7% | 7.2% | RH | 19.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 3.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.3% | 6.9% | LH | 22.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Home | 18.0% | 8.4% | RH | 17.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 7.0% | RH | 19.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 9.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.7% | 8.9% | LH | 18.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.5% | 6.3% | LH | 21.6% | 5.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.4% | 8.0% | LH | 17.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 15.4% | 9.0% |
| Rays | Home | 22.9% | 7.2% | RH | 21.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.1% |
| Astros | Road | 23.2% | 7.4% | RH | 24.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.8% | 3.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.9% | 8.2% | LH | 20.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.3% |
| Giants | Home | 18.0% | 7.2% | RH | 18.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.9% | 8.8% | RH | 21.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 15.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.6% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.3% |
| Mets | Road | 22.1% | 6.6% | RH | 20.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.4% | 7.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 29.2% | 6.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 9.7% | LH | 20.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 27.5% | 9.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.9% | 7.9% | LH | 19.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.6% | 5.7% | RH | 20.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.8% | 8.3% | LH | 22.2% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 6.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.4% | 8.7% | RH | 24.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.3% | 7.6% | LH | 16.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.9% | 5.3% |
| Royals | Home | 14.2% | 6.6% | RH | 15.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 13.6% | 5.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.2% | 5.8% | RH | 20.4% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 4.7% |
| Twins | Road | 22.7% | 6.8% | RH | 21.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.5% | 6.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.0% | 6.5% | RH | 19.6% | 5.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.1% | 7.5% | LH | 22.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.5% |
| Padres | Road | 21.6% | 7.3% | RH | 21.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 6.8% | LH | 21.6% | 6.0% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.4% |
| Indians | Home | 19.1% | 9.3% | RH | 19.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | Road | 21.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 20.9% | 10.7% | 10.7% | Home | 20.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Brad Hand | Marlins | 20.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% | Home | 19.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 24.4% | 13.8% | 4.3% | Road | 17.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 21.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | Road | 21.6% | 14.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.8% | 10.1% | 11.9% | Road | 18.9% | 13.2% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 22.1% | 6.5% | 14.5% | Home | 24.1% | 4.3% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 19.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% | Home | 20.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 23.7% | 11.2% | 10.2% | Road | 24.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 16.8% | 13.3% | 7.5% | Home | 21.3% | 8.5% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 16.9% | 13.9% | 4.2% | Road | 17.3% | 9.5% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 22.0% | 7.5% | 11.0% | Road | 23.4% | 6.1% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.7% | 11.7% | 11.2% | Road | 19.0% | 13.7% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 18.8% | 8.9% | 12.6% | Road | 19.0% | 12.2% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 23.3% | 13.2% | 7.5% | Home | 25.0% | 15.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.4% | 10.3% | 11.3% | Road | 21.1% | 12.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | Home | 47.1% | 25.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | Home | 23.0% | 4.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 25.1% | 15.2% | 10.9% | Home | 25.0% | 19.4% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | Road | 22.6% | 7.2% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 20.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | Home | 16.6% | 9.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 19.2% | 12.7% | 6.3% | Home | 16.9% | 10.9% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.3% | 13.5% | 11.3% | Road | 23.5% | 13.3% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 23.5% | 13.5% | 12.8% | Home | 23.2% | 12.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 20.7% | 13.5% | 9.5% | Home | 20.5% | 16.5% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 21.5% | 11.4% | 11.4% | Road | 21.6% | 12.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | Home | 22.2% | 8.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 22.9% | 12.0% | 8.6% | Home | 22.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.6% | 11.6% | 6.1% | Road | 20.0% | 8.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.1% | 13.7% | 8.1% | Road | 16.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 23.2% | 12.4% | 9.2% | LH | 22.8% | 15.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 25.9% | 9.5% | 14.9% |
| Angels | Road | 18.3% | 10.6% | 9.2% | RH | 20.3% | 11.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 11.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | LH | 22.7% | 12.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Braves | Home | 21.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | RH | 22.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | RH | 19.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.3% | 14.2% | 11.0% | LH | 18.7% | 12.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.8% | 11.9% | 10.9% | LH | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.9% | 13.0% | 13.6% | LH | 20.4% | 13.1% | 17.7% | L7Days | 18.6% | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Home | 21.1% | 10.7% | 9.1% | RH | 21.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 15.3% | 10.0% | 14.0% |
| Astros | Road | 21.5% | 11.0% | 11.3% | RH | 19.7% | 14.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 14.5% | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | LH | 19.4% | 11.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 13.8% | 10.8% |
| Giants | Home | 20.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | RH | 21.3% | 10.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.9% | 12.4% | 8.8% | RH | 20.8% | 13.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | RH | 21.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.7% | 5.7% |
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | RH | 22.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 25.4% | 7.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.9% | 12.2% | 7.9% | RH | 20.1% | 12.7% | 6.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 23.3% | 10.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.3% | 12.8% | 9.8% | LH | 22.4% | 10.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.2% | 16.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.7% | 9.0% | 11.5% | LH | 20.0% | 11.5% | 10.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | RH | 20.8% | 10.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | LH | 19.7% | 12.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 16.2% | 13.7% | 17.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.5% | 10.9% | 7.5% | RH | 20.0% | 12.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 28.1% | 10.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | LH | 19.2% | 7.3% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Royals | Home | 21.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | RH | 21.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.2% | 12.9% | 9.6% | RH | 21.1% | 14.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 15.9% | 4.3% |
| Twins | Road | 19.5% | 8.3% | 11.3% | RH | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.3% | 16.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.4% | 10.2% | 8.7% | RH | 22.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.5% | 18.2% | 10.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | LH | 20.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Padres | Road | 19.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | RH | 19.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 12.0% | 9.0% | LH | 22.0% | 8.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Indians | Home | 23.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | RH | 21.1% | 10.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 24.9% | 13.3% | 15.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 17.6% | 7.8% | 2.26 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.95 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.88 | 10.0% | 5.4% | 1.85 |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 16.0% | 7.7% | 2.08 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.35 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 | |||
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 17.4% | 7.9% | 2.20 | 26.9% | 11.4% | 2.36 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.37 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 2.49 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 13.7% | 6.6% | 2.08 | 11.3% | 7.0% | 1.61 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 20.0% | 8.8% | 2.27 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.69 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 13.8% | 9.1% | 1.52 | 9.6% | 7.2% | 1.33 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 15.6% | 7.3% | 2.14 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 2.63 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.8% | 8.0% | 2.35 | 19.7% | 8.9% | 2.21 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 25.9% | 10.3% | 2.51 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 2.07 |
| James Shields | SDG | 26.1% | 13.2% | 1.98 | 22.7% | 12.2% | 1.86 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 13.5% | 8.7% | 1.55 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 1.69 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 12.9% | 8.7% | 1.48 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 1.61 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 20.5% | 8.6% | 2.38 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 2.69 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 29.4% | 11.9% | 2.47 | 29.4% | 11.9% | 2.47 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 | 15.9% | 6.9% | 2.30 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 22.5% | 5.8% | 3.88 | 22.5% | 5.8% | 3.88 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 11.6% | 5.0% | 2.32 | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.89 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 16.3% | 9.4% | 1.73 | 12.3% | 8.4% | 1.46 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 16.7% | 8.7% | 1.92 | 16.0% | 8.9% | 1.80 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 18.3% | 9.3% | 1.97 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 2.31 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 19.8% | 8.9% | 2.22 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 2.02 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 23.4% | 8.6% | 2.72 | 27.0% | 11.0% | 2.45 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 25.9% | 11.8% | 2.19 | 27.6% | 13.1% | 2.11 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 20.8% | 8.0% | 2.60 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.07 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 25.1% | 9.3% | 2.70 | 34.3% | 13.3% | 2.58 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 17.8% | 8.3% | 2.14 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 2.47 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 13.2% | 7.5% | 1.76 | 9.6% | 5.6% | 1.71 |
Ervin Santana has surely seen his SwStr% drop over the last month, but even taking that into account, his K% should be higher. His season SwStr% is almost exactly his career mark (9.1% vs 9.2%), but his career K% (18.8%) is a full five points higher. As we’ve seen just about every pitcher conform over a full season of work this year (and last), I’d completely expect an increase in his K% going forward. How much of one entirely depends on where his SwStr% settles, but I’d expect something between 15-19% overall. His current catcher framing situation is slightly in the red (-4.0 RAA combined) according to StatCorner.com.
Matt Cain actually has the 2nd highest SwStr% of his career so far, leading to optimism that he can regain a league average strikeout rate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.79 | 4.21 | 0.42 | 3.95 | 0.16 | 3.58 | -0.21 | 3.82 | 4.19 | 0.37 | 3.82 | 0 | 3.77 | -0.05 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 4.52 | 4.66 | 0.14 | 4.48 | -0.04 | 4.21 | -0.31 | 4.18 | 5.23 | 1.05 | 4.9 | 0.72 | 4.64 | 0.46 |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 4.46 | 3.84 | -0.62 | 3.78 | -0.68 | 3.09 | -1.37 | 2.88 | 3.81 | 0.93 | 3.77 | 0.89 | 4.12 | 1.24 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.88 | 4.13 | -0.75 | 3.96 | -0.92 | 4.22 | -0.66 | |||||||
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.06 | 3.76 | -0.3 | 3.78 | -0.28 | 4.09 | 0.03 | 2.93 | 3.05 | 0.12 | 3.05 | 0.12 | 2.96 | 0.03 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.37 | 2.81 | 0.44 | 2.74 | 0.37 | 2.74 | 0.37 | 3.41 | 3.14 | -0.27 | 3.14 | -0.27 | 2.89 | -0.52 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.18 | 5.07 | 0.89 | 4.98 | 0.8 | 4.59 | 0.41 | 4.05 | 5.41 | 1.36 | 5.46 | 1.41 | 4.86 | 0.81 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 3.68 | 2.91 | -0.77 | 2.66 | -1.02 | 5.03 | 1.35 | 2.84 | 2.49 | -0.35 | 2.13 | -0.71 | 3.28 | 0.44 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 5.53 | 4.95 | -0.58 | 4.98 | -0.55 | 5.67 | 0.14 | 8.46 | 5.68 | -2.78 | 5.78 | -2.68 | 6.99 | -1.47 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 3.72 | 4.38 | 0.66 | 4.36 | 0.64 | 4.12 | 0.4 | 4.13 | 3.81 | -0.32 | 3.99 | -0.14 | 3.33 | -0.8 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.79 | 3.11 | 1.32 | 3.2 | 1.41 | 3.13 | 1.34 | 1.93 | 3.55 | 1.62 | 3.49 | 1.56 | 3.27 | 1.34 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.3 | 2.97 | 0.67 | 2.84 | 0.54 | 2.63 | 0.33 | 1.6 | 3.24 | 1.64 | 3.12 | 1.52 | 2.79 | 1.19 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.74 | 3.42 | -0.32 | 3.41 | -0.33 | 4.11 | 0.37 | 3.66 | 3.55 | -0.11 | 3.44 | -0.22 | 3.81 | 0.15 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.34 | 4.61 | 0.27 | 4.7 | 0.36 | 4.54 | 0.2 | 2.08 | 3.41 | 1.33 | 3.83 | 1.75 | 3.01 | 0.93 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 6.1 | 4.54 | -1.56 | 4.4 | -1.7 | 5.44 | -0.66 | 5.55 | 3.9 | -1.65 | 3.76 | -1.79 | 4.89 | -0.66 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 3.75 | 3.89 | 0.14 | 3.82 | 0.07 | 3.6 | -0.15 | 4.85 | 4.05 | -0.8 | 3.9 | -0.95 | 5.08 | 0.23 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 6.35 | 2.69 | -3.66 | 2.53 | -3.82 | 3.3 | -3.05 | 6.35 | 2.7 | -3.65 | 2.53 | -3.82 | 3.3 | -3.05 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.6 | 3.63 | 0.03 | 3.55 | -0.05 | 3.21 | -0.39 | 3.77 | 4.14 | 0.37 | 3.89 | 0.12 | 3.38 | -0.39 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 2.03 | 3.41 | 1.38 | 3.54 | 1.51 | 4.85 | 2.82 | 2.03 | 3.42 | 1.39 | 3.54 | 1.51 | 4.85 | 2.82 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 3.45 | 4.49 | 1.04 | 4.24 | 0.79 | 4.08 | 0.63 | 4.4 | 5.02 | 0.62 | 4.81 | 0.41 | 5.01 | 0.61 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.66 | 4.52 | -1.14 | 4.72 | -0.94 | 5.3 | -0.36 | 7.01 | 4.97 | -2.04 | 5.26 | -1.75 | 5.89 | -1.12 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 4.16 | 4.43 | 0.27 | 4.31 | 0.15 | 4.5 | 0.34 | 6.48 | 4.3 | -2.18 | 4.27 | -2.21 | 5.6 | -0.88 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 4.73 | 4.3 | -0.43 | 4.28 | -0.45 | 4.99 | 0.26 | 6.27 | 4.21 | -2.06 | 4.1 | -2.17 | 4.94 | -1.33 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 6.06 | 4.22 | -1.84 | 4.49 | -1.57 | 5.15 | -0.91 | 7.67 | 4.58 | -3.09 | 4.84 | -2.83 | 7.05 | -0.62 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.44 | 3.81 | 0.37 | 3.81 | 0.37 | 4 | 0.56 | 3.33 | 3.47 | 0.14 | 3.56 | 0.23 | 5.01 | 1.68 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 3.17 | 3.16 | -0.01 | 3.13 | -0.04 | 3.18 | 0.01 | 3.66 | 2.92 | -0.74 | 2.89 | -0.77 | 3.93 | 0.27 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.38 | 3.98 | 0.6 | 4.02 | 0.64 | 3.3 | -0.08 | 4.76 | 4.04 | -0.72 | 3.94 | -0.82 | 4.6 | -0.16 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 4.22 | 3.21 | -1.01 | 3.13 | -1.09 | 3.08 | -1.14 | 1.35 | 2.07 | 0.72 | 2.14 | 0.79 | 1.57 | 0.22 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 4.41 | 4.24 | -0.17 | 4.12 | -0.29 | 3.96 | -0.45 | 4.68 | 3.35 | -1.33 | 3.14 | -1.54 | 3.76 | -0.92 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.48 | 4.48 | 0 | 4.34 | -0.14 | 4.7 | 0.22 | 5.4 | 5.22 | -0.18 | 4.96 | -0.44 | 4.82 | -0.58 |
Brad Hand has just a 65.3 LOB% for the season, but an 83.3 LOB% over the last month. Strangely, his HR rate runs inverse to this, with a low 5.0 HR/FB for the season, but 15.8 HR/FB in four August starts (all three HRs on the road).
Ervin Santana does not have good underlying numbers, though they are not as bad his ERA. Unfortunately, it’s his HR rate that’s the issue as his ERA matches his FIP and his BABIP might be too low. Let’s discuss that first. He has a career .285 BABIP and elite IFFB% this season so that seems to fit a profile, right? Not really, because his career IFFB rate is 10% and he’s traditionally pitched for some great defensive teams (Angels, Royals, Braves). Minnesota hasn’t been bad this year, but is not the same league as those teams. Also, his ERA does match his FIP and he has had HR issues in the past in favorable parks. He has a 15.1 HR/FB this year and a perfectly average 10.9 career HR/FB, but has been above 12% in five of the previous six seasons, though only once this high. My guess is that his K% will improve, while his HR rate improves slightly until he settles in as about a league average or slightly worse pitcher, or at least profiles as one.
Jaime Garcia has a 15.3 LD% and 3.7 GB/FB to go along with a 4.0 Hard-Soft% this season. That kind of batted ball and contact authority profile in itself should generate a lower BABIP, even without the traditional indicators in the chart below. However, I still wouldn’t expect him to be able to maintain something 50 points below his team’s average, nor an 81.6 LOB% some double digit points above his career rate. A healthy Jaime Garcia is a very good, though not great pitcher.
Jake Arrieta is generating a career high rate of ground balls (54.2%) with a lot of weak contact and sub 10 HR/FB for the 2nd consecutive season. His BABIP isn’t far enough out of range with a decent enough profile that it’s not worth quibbling about.
Matt Cain has a career high HR rate (14.5 HR/FB) and also a BABIP that’s a little high, but with a lot of hard contact. If you’re looking for upside, his home park should reduce the HR rate (it has in the past) and his SwStr% suggests a return to previous strikeout levels, which should greatly help out in the ERA department.
Stephen Strasburg has had issues with BABIP in the past and the defense does him no favors, but his 66.1 LOB% is well below his career level, which is right around league average, and should improve. In fact, he’s had an unsustainably high 89.2 LOB% over his last seven starts. That’s how bad it was over the first two months.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.300 | 0.328 | 0.028 | 9.4% | 89.1% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.300 | 0.290 | -0.01 | 11.8% | 89.6% |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 0.293 | 0.317 | 0.024 | 3.3% | 89.2% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.316 | 0.299 | -0.017 | 5.9% | 93.2% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.303 | 0.292 | -0.011 | 8.2% | 91.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.283 | 0.268 | -0.015 | 14.6% | 90.6% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.280 | 0.291 | 0.011 | 17.8% | 88.9% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.296 | 0.364 | 0.068 | 0.0% | 94.4% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.299 | 0.268 | -0.031 | 15.1% | 88.1% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.298 | 0.270 | -0.028 | 14.5% | 92.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.292 | 0.234 | -0.058 | 5.0% | 90.2% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.295 | 0.267 | -0.028 | 8.5% | 87.1% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.298 | 0.308 | 0.01 | 10.7% | 83.4% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.285 | 0.271 | -0.014 | 15.1% | 84.2% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 0.318 | 0.341 | 0.023 | 8.3% | 91.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.281 | 0.299 | 0.018 | 15.5% | 85.1% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 0.286 | 0.469 | 0.183 | 16.7% | 80.9% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.314 | 0.336 | 0.022 | 5.5% | 88.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.293 | 0.121 | -0.172 | 6.7% | 96.4% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.281 | 0.275 | -0.006 | 8.1% | 92.1% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.286 | 0.322 | 0.036 | 8.1% | 87.3% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 0.297 | 0.279 | -0.018 | 6.3% | 88.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.291 | 0.291 | 0 | 9.1% | 87.8% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.305 | 0.357 | 0.052 | 9.5% | 88.3% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.281 | 0.277 | -0.004 | 8.9% | 87.4% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.283 | 0.298 | 0.015 | 11.4% | 86.5% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.012 | 5.1% | 88.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.308 | 0.333 | 0.025 | 10.7% | 86.5% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.306 | 0.298 | -0.008 | 8.4% | 89.6% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.302 | 0.314 | 0.012 | 7.6% | 91.7% |
No additional notes today.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Note: While the gaps in value between tiers aren’t large, there’s a big overall gap between the top two pitchers (Arrieta and Strasburg) and the rest of the field.
Value Tier One
John Lamb (7t) doesn’t have a very long track record or the greatest matchup tonight, but has shown an ability to miss bats and faces an ice cold offense at a very low price. These are the kind of upside plays you like to take a shot on with little prospect fanfare in a spot that might be better than it immediately appears.
Josh Tomlin is in a similar situation at an almost identical cost, although, he’s facing an opponent that has been bad all season and a bit better lately and has seen his SwStr% drop off from last season. He’s not the most trustworthy option tonight, but has a good chance of seeing his value exceed his price tag.
Jesse Chavez (7t) – It’s the same as is usually said about him here. He’s an average pitcher at an average price in a good spot in a great park.
Stephen Strasburg (2) faces a hot team, but a very right-handed and not very intimidating lineup. He’s been great since returning and projects for the top K% tonight, while being the 4th most expensive pitcher.
Jake Arrieta (1) faces a difficult, but wounded offense in a great environment. He is the top overall option and probably the most trustworthy from a DFS floor standpoint.
Value Tier Two
Charlie Morton (7t) might still be difficult to trust at an increased price tag and average price overall, but the new curveball seems to have allowed him to figure out how to miss more bats and he finds himself in a great spot tonight.
Brad Hand comes at the minimum price and hasn’t been terrible in a starting role this year, while in a neutral spot tonight.
Ervin Santana hasn’t been good, but is in a good spot tonight and profiles for some upside and potential correction in his K%. He’s near the minimum price on DraftKings.
Value Tier Three
Nate Karns (6) isn’t the most consistent pitcher and probably won’t go longer than six innings. That’s a hell of an endorsement so far for a pitcher with a slightly above average price tag. The good news is that he faces the worst road offense in the majors in a great home park and projects for one of the top K rates tonight.
Jaime Garcia (3t) hasn’t been as good as his ERA, but has been very good. He’s kind of a Keuchel-lite and a profile you’re hesitant to pay up for with a below average, but respectable strikeout rate, but he should also be able to keep the ball on the ground and stay out of trouble in a dangerous park.
Wade Miley has been better in recent starts and faces a team that can’t hit lefties at a mid-range price.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Matt Cain has been bad, but he’s missing a league average amount of bats and faces a high strikeout team one of the top run suppressing environments.
Noah Syndergaard (3t) has struggled on the road, especially lately, and faces an improved Philadelphia offense in a less favorable run environment than his home park. In addition, he’s at the point where the Mets might start being more watchful of his workload, although winning the game probably takes precedence here.
James Shields (10) faces a team with some power in a less friendly environment than he’s used to. Will he be able to strike out enough batters to balance out that risk? It’s probably close.
Dallas Keuchel (3t) – It’s a very high cost in a very tough spot. The most likely result is you get close to what you pay for, which isn’t a bad result, but doesn’t leave us with room to generate a lot of excess value here.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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