Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, July 28th
The first thing I’m going to do is hope that none of today’s pitchers get traded before game time because a few of them have been mentioned to be block. Assuming that all goes well, all we have to now is nail the performances. That easy, right? Well, at least all of the scheduled pitchers actually pitched last night, though that might be the most positive thing you can say about the group on the whole.
As a reminder, tomorrow’s article will only include the night games with the early start. You get everything today though.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -6.2 | 4.71 | 5.42 | 0.68 | 1.05 | 5.48 | 4.96 | TOR | 127 | 130 | 119 | 15.5% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 12.1% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4 | 3.26 | 5.7 | 3.26 | 0.89 | 3.73 | 4.09 | OAK | 92 | 93 | 61 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 18.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 3.6 | 4.16 | 6.03 | 1.41 | 1.01 | 4.1 | 4.64 | HOU | 114 | 98 | 111 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 21.8% | 11.2% | 8.0% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -3.4 | 3.72 | 6. | 2.85 | 1.05 | 3.89 | 4.77 | MIN | 112 | 93 | 88 | 17.4% | 7.3% | 20.6% | 13.4% | 9.7% |
| Chris Capuano | NYY | -7.1 | 3.75 | 5.18 | 1.3 | 1.08 | 3.83 | 3.35 | TEX | 94 | 79 | 118 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 17.2% | 15.1% | 7.5% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 9.8 | 5.15 | 5.59 | 0.41 | 0.94 | 5.35 | 7.09 | CLE | 102 | 97 | 87 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 19.2% | 11.0% | 11.7% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -3.4 | 3.53 | 6.13 | 1.28 | 1.01 | 3.42 | 3.72 | ANA | 101 | 104 | 122 | 19.6% | 5.8% | 23.6% | 9.2% | 10.9% |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | 5.6 | 4.85 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.05 | 2.76 | 6.88 | COL | 86 | 102 | 126 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% |
| David Price | DET | 5.1 | 2.97 | 7.15 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 3.02 | 1.98 | TAM | 99 | 110 | 113 | 24.9% | 5.9% | 21.9% | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | -2.5 | 4.71 | 5.23 | 1.16 | 1.05 | 5.32 | 5.68 | PHI | 87 | 97 | 132 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 20.5% | 8.4% | 10.3% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -3.1 | 3.22 | 6.44 | 1.73 | 0.85 | 2.97 | 2.39 | ARI | 94 | 94 | 83 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 18.7% | 11.9% | 8.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.3 | 2.83 | 6.51 | 2.79 | 0.98 | 2.8 | CIN | 86 | 98 | 113 | ||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 8.7 | 3.73 | 5.62 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 3.62 | 5.91 | DET | 106 | 109 | 91 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 24.1% | 11.4% | 6.4% |
| James Shields | SDG | -10.7 | 3.56 | 6.47 | 1.26 | 0.88 | 3.49 | 3.95 | NYM | 102 | 89 | 89 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 22.7% | 11.7% | 12.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -8.9 | 3.39 | 6.71 | 1.41 | 1.07 | 3.5 | 4.98 | BOS | 104 | 98 | 102 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 19.7% | 9.7% | 12.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -2.6 | 3.48 | 6.27 | 1.14 | 1.01 | 3.18 | 3.48 | FLA | 88 | 81 | 69 | 20.6% | 4.7% | 22.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 5.2 | 2.26 | 6.58 | 1.51 | 1.01 | 2.06 | 2.34 | WAS | 102 | 98 | 96 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 21.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -3.7 | 3.75 | 6.38 | 0.87 | 1.04 | 4.08 | 3.02 | BAL | 108 | 102 | 59 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 23.6% | 10.4% | 16.5% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.4 | 4.26 | 6.27 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 3.74 | 5.58 | NYY | 92 | 105 | 126 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 22.5% | 8.6% | 13.2% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 1 | 4 | 6.18 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 3.79 | 3.36 | MIL | 87 | 92 | 79 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 20.6% | 10.6% | 5.6% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | -0.5 | 3.7 | 6.35 | 2 | 0.98 | 3.68 | 4.09 | STL | 101 | 102 | 96 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 20.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3.3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.05 | 4.55 | 5.4 | PIT | 89 | 95 | 102 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 21.8% | 10.8% | 8.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 4.9 | 3.15 | 6.02 | 1.34 | 0.88 | 2.87 | 4.5 | SDG | 84 | 87 | 67 | 23.2% | 7.0% | 17.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -6.4 | 3.45 | 6.59 | 2.03 | 0.89 | 3.31 | 4.76 | LOS | 121 | 113 | 91 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 19.2% | 13.7% | 7.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -3.2 | 3.9 | 5.96 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 4 | 2.99 | KAN | 101 | 106 | 90 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 20.5% | 16.3% | 7.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.7 | 3.78 | 5.74 | 1.27 | 1.04 | 3.82 | 4.37 | ATL | 86 | 90 | 54 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 21.7% | 12.0% | 8.2% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -3.1 | 3.92 | 6. | 1.74 | 1.07 | 3.44 | 4.77 | CHW | 86 | 63 | 118 | 21.5% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 11.9% | 7.5% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -2.9 | 3.89 | 6.04 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 4.14 | SFO | 110 | 114 | 136 | ||||||
| Yohan Flande | COL | 1.5 | 3.69 | 5.3 | 2.68 | 1.05 | 3.38 | 0.65 | CHC | 78 | 95 | 73 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 16.8% | 16.0% | 3.9% |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 2.6 | 1.81 | 6. | 1.2 | 0.85 | 1.81 | SEA | 102 | 94 | 138 |
Brett Anderson had a small mishap in his last start and left after two plus innings due to a foot or ankle or something. He seems to be well enough to pitch tonight. Although it looked like a bad outing, eight of 11 batted balls were on the ground, so it was really business as usual combined with some BABIP misfortune. If you’ve been a regular reader, you probably know our standard position on him. He combines the top ground ball rate in the majors (66.8%) with a 1.2 Hard-Soft% and at least a reasonable K%. What’s not to love about weak ground balls from your pitcher? Oakland has a -5.9 Hard-Soft% and 1.8 HR/FB over the last week. They lose their DH and make a top park adjusted matchup tonight. They have just an 8.2 K-BB% vs LHP, but only a 7.5 HR/FB.
Charlie Morton is a matchup pitcher for me. In certain situations and at the right price, his strong ground ball rate can be useful. The strikeouts are virtually non-existent. The ground ball rate hasn’t been as strong lately, but it’s still above 2.0 and just below 60% for the year. He has a 59.8 GB% vs RHBs for his career and Minnesota doesn’t have much left-handed power in a park that suppresses it. They are a strong home team, but not very good vs RHP with a 14.0 K-BB%.
Chris Capuano gets his first spot start since May 29th. He may not even last five innings, but he could be successful in the time that he is in there simply due to the fact that he throws left-handed. We’re not going to over-analyze any of his other stats today due to the fact that most of his 30.1 IP this year have come out of the bullpen, but he can has shown an ability to generate a few swings and misses in the past. RH power has been an issue throughout his career, but the Rangers don’t have much of that. They lean very left-handed and are terrible against pitchers from that side (23.3 K%), park adjusting to a neutral matchup here.
Collin McHugh has been pitching well lately, but really his peripherals have been the same aside from the lower HR rate. I’ve maintained that he’s likely not as good as he was last year, but better than he’s shown this year through most of the season. The biggest differences have been a 50 point jump in BABIP and a significant drop in K% despite just a small drop in SwStr%. We’ll talk about all of this later, but I continue to see some upside here. The matchup is a tough one against an above average offense that’s been hitting the ball well.
David Price has pitched at least seven innings with two ERs or less with at least seven strikeouts or more in four straight starts. That’s a damn good month. His K-BB rate, while still not up to last year’s mark, now sits at 18.9%. That too is very good. You know what? He’s a pretty good pitcher. Here he goes to a former home to face a team that has had a lot of success vs LHP, but has just a 6.5 Hard-Soft% against them and strikes out a lot. They park adjust to a neutral matchup.
Hisashi Iwakuma has a severe HR tendency. After allowing over his first four starts (three at home), he’s allowed just one over his last three (including one at Yankee Stadium). That’s a start because when he’s not giving up bombs, his 16.4 K-BB% over the last calendar years can be quite useful. You would think pitching at home would solve the problem, but he has a 17.9 HR/FB at Safeco since last season. He has no real platoon split and Arizona hits for about average power on the road. His walk rate goes down to 2.1% at home since last season, perhaps because he’s challenging hitters more (maybe he shouldn’t). Arizona has a 29.0 K% over the last week and is one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight.
Jake Odorizzi is one of three pitchers who get a full write-up mostly on name value. I’m unlikely to find myself in a situation where I’d use them tonight. His underlying numbers see him as much closer to average than his ERA and he faces a tough Detroit team. They park adjust to an average matchup here, but you’re being asked to pay more than an average price here.
James Shields has career high K (26.9%) and BB (8.8%) rates, but has been pretty average overall in the first year of his new contract. A 17.9 HR/FB has actually reduced greatly over the last two months with just five HRs over his last 11 starts. He’s allowed just two ERs or less in four of his last five starts, but also pitched just a total of 15.1 innings (11 walks) over his last three starts with a high of 5.1. The Mets have not been good vs RHP with just an 8.2 HR/FB and park adjust down to a strong matchup tonight.
Jeff Samardzija is the 2nd pitcher who gets name service tonight. Aside from expected performance, there’s another interesting reason to potentially avoid him tonight. He’s probably the most like to be traded and miss his start. He’s struck out just 11 of his last 87 batters, though he has an 11.1 SwStr% this month, but has really been just mediocre this year. He matches up against a team with just a 17.0 K% at home and 16.4 K% vs RHP in a tough park. I think there’s some potential upside in his overall strikeout rate, but not enough in this particular spot.
Jordan Zimmermann has nearly identical numbers to last season except for a drop in his 19.1 K-BB% to a more league average 13.6%. That’s led to over a half a run bump in his ERA and estimators. That still leaves him as a very good pitcher, but maybe not an Ace. On the road, he has a 19.4 K-BB% and 8.1 HR/FB since last season. His HR suppression skills, which will be discussed later, should play well in this big park tonight. The Marlins have been terrible at home and are tied for the worst offense vs RHP, making for a great matchup with little park adjustment (though the park suppresses power, the overall run environment is neutral).
Jose Fernandez has been an absolute beast since his return and it’s not even fair. While we may still expect him to experience some of the occasional setbacks that Matt Harvey and other TJS survivors have had, it hasn’t happened yet. His 16.9 SwStr% is nearly a good K% on its own and he has a 0.0 Hard-Soft% on top of that. In his career, he has a 28.6 K-BB% at home. The matchup is about as neutral as you can get here, but the Nationals strike out just a bit above average. They have some power (13.5 HR/FB on the road, 13.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but that should be muted in this park.
Julio Teheran has had a rough season, but did strike out a season high 11 Dodgers in his last start. His league average K% is fine, but his walk rate has jumped above average and he’s been hurt by the long ball in a park where he really shouldn’t. He pitches on the road against a team with a 15.7 HR/FB at home and 14.1 HR/FB vs RHP, but have been ice cold over the last week in which they’ve struck out 24.1% of the time. They also have a 22.6 K% vs RHP.
Matt Cain has had two strong starts and two bad ones this year. Overall, if you take away the four HRs, all on the road, but only in one hitter’s park, his non-FIP estimators see him as being just a bit below league average. He has struck out 18 of his last 68 batters. He pitches against a team with some power tonight, but they’ve been terrible on the road and are in a park that shuts down power tonight. It’s a top overall park adjusted matchup against a team with a 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP.
Mike Leake is the very definition of league average this year, though there’s little upside in his K% and he has a below average 10.2 K-BB%. He’s allowed a total of two ERs over his last 22 innings. His biggest issue is a 14.1 HR/FB that’s pretty close to his 13.7 career HR/FB. A career and season GB% just above 50% makes that a little more bearable. He has a very average, neutral matchup against the Cardinals tonight, but in a park they have just a 7.6 HR/FB in.
Noah Syndergaard has established himself as a stud over the last month. He’s allowed exactly a single ER in five of his last seven starts and more than two only once. He did walk five Nationals in his last start, but it was one of those really early mid-week ones which are often a mess. His 19.1 K-BB% otherwise is very impressive. His SwStr hasn’t dropped below 9% in any of his last nine starts. He has what might be the top park adjusted matchup tonight against a visiting San Diego team that has the 3rd worst road offense and 5th worst vs RHP, while striking out more than the average team. Who knows if they’ll even have all those below average bats at game time.
Sonny Gray is our 3rd and last name service pitcher. It’s been my position for most of the season that his park and some good positioning from his defense has allowed him to out run his ERA estimators and while that doesn’t make him a bad pitcher, it makes him a higher risk at a high cost because he’s depending on several things he has little control over. This has shown itself a few times lately with at least three ERs in four of his last six starts and a total of seven strikeouts (56 batters) in his last two starts. Tonight, he faces the 3rd best home offense and 2nd best against RHP, though they were tops in both categories for most of the season. While Dodger Stadium is still a pitcher’s park and the offense adjusts down to basically neutral, it’s still not Oakland and the home team has a 14.1 HR/FB in this park plus a 14.6 HR/FB vs RHP.
Trevor Bauer has allowed 11 ERs over his last 10 innings with 14 strikeouts (48 batters) and 10 HRs over his last six starts. You really never know what you’re going to get with him in terms of runs, walks, or strikeouts. You just pray on the upside and accept an enormously wide range of outcomes. Kansas City is about a neutral matchup here that park adjusts down slightly. They’ll help him out with the BBs and HRs, but hurt his K% (16.8% on the road, 15.8% vs RHP) greatly in the process.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed 14 ERs over his last seven innings, including four of his 12 HRs on the season. That was on the road against two offensive power houses in Detroit and New York. In fact, only two of his last 10 starts and none of his last four have been at home. Not that he’s any big deal there. He has a great park adjusted matchup tonight though against an ice cold team with a -7.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week and 7.3 HR/FB vs RHP that’s even worse on the road (7.1 HR/FB). The expectation is a lot of weak contact here.
Wade Miley has been bad this season, mostly because he often can’t find the plate. He exhibited this with five walks in his last start and has just a 9.0 K-BB% on the season. Who cares? He faces an atrocious team against LHP that’s had to improve lately just to get to a 63 wRC+ against them, which comes with a 16.5 K-BB% and 7.7 HR/FB. They park adjust to strong matchup even in an offensive environment.
Yohan Flande can be interesting here. He’s pitched 17 innings, all in relief, but gone multiple innings in most of his seven relief appearances, including over five innings once. He just 10 strikeouts, but a league average strikeout rate that we’re not going to go into much further because it’s only 17 innings. He’s facing the 2nd worst home offense and could see some upside in that K rate against a team that strikes out 24.3% at home and 23.1% vs LHP.
Zachary Godley was Godley in his major league debut, striking out seven Brewers with no walks and not allowing a run through six innings. This is a guy who has just 14 innings above A ball, but as soon as someone tweeted that he has a heavy sinker, I wanted to withdraw my Brewers stack. He only generated six ground balls though (out of 12 batted). If he can get that sinker going again tonight, it could serve him well in a solid park adjusted matchup against a team that strikes out slightly more than average, but they have been hitting the ball well over the last week and have a 16.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP that’s best in the league. Despite the dominance, 46.2% of his batted balls were hit hard, which doesn’t really work out with the math, so I guess I’m going to have to question fangraphs here and I’ll do that right now on twitter while you wait.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Chris Young (.210 BABIP – 78.9 LOB% – 8.6 HR/FB) – Even if we give him credit for being the ultimate outlier with a .248 career BABIP, it’s never been this low before and his brand of pitching carries a very low fantasy ceiling, even if he has more real life value.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
C.J. Wilson is an average pitcher who’s found success this year due to his ability to suppress his HRs (8.5 HR/FB) in a good park. This is not a good spot for him and one in which I believe him to be over-priced.
Jaime Garcia looked sharp in his rehab start against A ball hitters, but hasn’t otherwise pitched competitively in over a month. I’m not sure I want to pay up for him today, especially when he may be on a pitch count in his first game back.
Wily Peralta hasn’t pitched in the majors in over two months and has topped out at five innings in AA in three rehab starts.
Dallas Beeler
Felix Doubront – We’ve used him as a dumpster diving play a few times this year. You would think he would be of such use against the Phillies, but his price has risen slightly and the 11.9 K% is just dreadful.
Adam Morgan pitching in Toronto might be the worst pitching rated pitching situation I’ve seen this year. Bombs away! (Two hit shutout likely coming up.) Tulo just got traded as I write this, so it’s now even worse than the worst.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 15.4% | 6.8% | Road | 12.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.8% | 7.0% | Home | 14.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 19.8% | 9.9% | Road | 20.0% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 9.1% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 17.3% | 8.0% | Road | 17.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 7.0% |
| Chris Capuano | Yankees | 19.3% | 6.9% | Road | 20.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 15.8% | 8.3% | Road | 13.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.2% | 5.8% | Home | 23.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 1.8% |
| Dallas Beeler | Cubs | 14.8% | 13.6% | Home | 27.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| David Price | Tigers | 24.9% | 4.0% | Road | 25.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 3.5% |
| Felix Doubront | Blue Jays | 14.5% | 8.8% | Home | 13.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 4.4% | 8.7% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.5% | 4.1% | Home | 20.4% | 2.1% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 4.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 20.1% | 4.0% | Home | 21.1% | 2.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.5% | 7.8% | Home | 25.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 15.2% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.6% | 6.5% | Road | 22.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 15.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 21.5% | 5.3% | Road | 21.1% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.6% | 4.3% | Road | 22.7% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 2.2% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 33.1% | 6.0% | Home | 33.0% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 5.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.5% | 7.0% | Road | 19.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 16.3% | 8.5% | Home | 18.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 12.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 19.1% | 7.2% | Home | 21.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 2.1% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 17.3% | 5.9% | Road | 15.0% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 12.6% | 9.1% | Home | 13.6% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 25.2% | 6.2% | Home | 26.6% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.3% | 7.6% | Road | 21.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 22.6% | 9.3% | Home | 22.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.7% | 10.2% | Home | 21.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 7.5% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 19.2% | 8.6% | Home | 20.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 14.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 18.0% | 7.5% | Road | 15.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Yohan Flande | Rockies | 14.1% | 6.4% | Road | 18.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 33.3% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.1% | 9.7% | LH | 17.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.8% | LH | 17.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.6% | 5.1% |
| Astros | Home | 24.6% | 9.4% | LH | 22.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.4% | 6.1% |
| Twins | Home | 18.4% | 6.5% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.1% | 8.2% | LH | 23.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.8% |
| Indians | Home | 19.6% | 9.6% | RH | 18.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.9% | 6.4% |
| Angels | Road | 18.4% | 7.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 5.8% | RH | 19.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 14.8% | 8.5% |
| Rays | Home | 23.2% | 7.4% | LH | 22.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.3% | 5.8% | LH | 20.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.9% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 29.0% | 10.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.4% | 7.3% | LH | 19.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | RH | 19.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Home | 19.8% | 8.4% | RH | 20.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 7.8% | RH | 16.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.5% | 5.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.8% | 6.7% | RH | 20.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.5% | 8.2% | RH | 21.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 8.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 6.8% | RH | 22.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.3% | 7.7% | LH | 18.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 14.1% | 6.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.1% | 6.1% | RH | 20.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.9% | 8.7% | RH | 18.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.1% | 6.4% | RH | 20.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 28.4% | 3.3% |
| Padres | Road | 21.9% | 7.6% | RH | 22.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Road | 16.8% | 5.6% | RH | 15.8% | 6.0% | L7Days | 15.4% | 4.5% |
| Braves | Road | 18.4% | 7.1% | RH | 17.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.0% | 5.4% | LH | 22.0% | 5.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 6.8% |
| Giants | Home | 17.5% | 7.2% | RH | 17.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 15.8% | 7.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.3% | 9.1% | LH | 23.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.6% | 7.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 14.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% | Road | 10.5% | 21.1% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.3% | 11.7% | 3.9% | Home | 16.5% | 13.2% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 22.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | Road | 22.4% | 13.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 20.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | Road | 22.4% | 15.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Capuano | Yankees | 23.7% | 9.7% | 6.3% | Road | 25.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 18.1% | 8.7% | 13.3% | Road | 19.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 22.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | Home | 23.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 29.5% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Dallas Beeler | Cubs | 9.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% | Home | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Tigers | 22.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Felix Doubront | Blue Jays | 21.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | Home | 16.4% | 17.5% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.6% | 13.2% | 8.9% | Home | 18.9% | 17.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 16.7% | 15.5% | 3.4% | Home | 17.6% | 18.4% | 2.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | Home | 19.9% | 3.0% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | Road | 18.8% | 14.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | Road | 20.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 9.5% | 23.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 22.6% | 6.8% | 12.1% | Road | 24.1% | 8.1% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 19.2% | 6.7% | 9.6% | Home | 17.7% | 8.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 23.0% | 9.5% | 11.6% | Road | 24.9% | 11.7% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 20.4% | 9.8% | 9.0% | Home | 28.1% | 4.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 20.8% | 11.6% | 12.1% | Home | 15.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 21.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% | Road | 20.7% | 14.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.8% | 8.7% | 10.4% | Home | 22.0% | 8.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 19.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | Home | 20.6% | 5.4% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | Road | 15.2% | 5.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 20.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | Home | 21.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.9% | 9.3% | 11.1% | Home | 23.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.2% | 11.1% | 6.7% | Home | 19.3% | 14.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.3% | 14.1% | 9.4% | Road | 17.2% | 9.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Yohan Flande | Rockies | 18.4% | 11.3% | 3.8% | Road | 19.0% | 5.9% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.5% | 15.4% | 14.5% | LH | 20.8% | 13.9% | 18.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 20.4% | 6.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | LH | 18.8% | 7.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 1.8% | 9.1% |
| Astros | Home | 18.9% | 18.7% | 9.8% | LH | 20.7% | 13.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 12.2% | 11.5% | RH | 20.6% | 9.4% | 12.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 15.9% | 13.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.7% | 10.6% | 8.5% | LH | 19.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% |
| Indians | Home | 22.4% | 7.8% | 10.0% | RH | 20.6% | 9.7% | 11.4% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.1% | 12.1% |
| Angels | Road | 18.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.6% | 12.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.7% | 13.0% | 8.4% | RH | 21.3% | 14.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.9% | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Rays | Home | 21.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | LH | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | LH | 22.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | RH | 21.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.1% | 2.4% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | LH | 22.9% | 13.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.2% | 9.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 12.1% | 5.8% | RH | 21.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.5% | 3.1% |
| Mets | Home | 21.9% | 10.9% | 11.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 25.6% | 9.3% | 11.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | RH | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | RH | 20.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.3% | 11.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.2% | 13.5% | 10.3% | RH | 20.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.6% | 17.1% | 5.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.7% | 15.7% | 7.7% | RH | 21.4% | 14.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 11.4% | 17.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.0% | LH | 17.9% | 13.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 22.8% | 13.6% | 8.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | RH | 20.9% | 10.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% | RH | 22.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.6% | 12.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | RH | 20.9% | 9.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 15.2% | 4.3% |
| Padres | Road | 20.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | RH | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 14.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.0% | 14.1% | 8.1% | RH | 21.3% | 14.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.3% | 14.3% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Road | 23.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% | RH | 21.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.8% | 5.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | RH | 22.0% | 7.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 4.7% | 11.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | LH | 20.9% | 7.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 26.1% | 20.0% | 2.2% |
| Giants | Home | 20.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | RH | 21.9% | 10.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 14.5% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% | LH | 24.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.8% | 12.9% | 1.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.1% | 11.5% | 7.9% | RH | 19.9% | 11.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.3% | 16.4% | 5.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 15.4% | 10.3% | 1.50 | 12.9% | 9.7% | 1.33 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.42 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 2.18 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 20.1% | 8.7% | 2.31 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.00 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 13.0% | 6.3% | 2.06 | 14.6% | 6.3% | 2.32 |
| Chris Capuano | NYY | 21.4% | 13.5% | 1.59 | 19.1% | 12.5% | 1.53 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 15.8% | 9.3% | 1.70 | 15.3% | 10.0% | 1.53 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 18.4% | 10.3% | 1.79 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.65 |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | 17.1% | 6.0% | 2.85 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 2.85 |
| David Price | DET | 23.7% | 11.5% | 2.06 | 27.3% | 13.2% | 2.07 |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 11.9% | 6.6% | 1.80 | 11.9% | 6.6% | 1.80 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 18.8% | 9.8% | 1.92 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 1.94 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.1% | 7.4% | 2.45 | |||
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 1.72 |
| James Shields | SDG | 26.9% | 13.4% | 2.01 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.06 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 18.7% | 10.3% | 1.82 | 16.6% | 11.1% | 1.50 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.36 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 2.86 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 31.4% | 16.9% | 1.86 | 31.4% | 16.9% | 1.86 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.1% | 10.9% | 1.84 | 24.6% | 13.0% | 1.89 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.60 | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.60 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 21.5% | 10.6% | 2.03 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 2.03 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 16.5% | 6.6% | 2.50 | 21.3% | 7.3% | 2.92 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.1% | 5.2% | 2.13 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 2.02 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 25.2% | 11.2% | 2.25 | 27.9% | 13.7% | 2.04 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 21.4% | 9.5% | 2.25 | 15.8% | 7.0% | 2.26 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 23.9% | 10.9% | 2.19 | 24.4% | 13.4% | 1.82 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 22.9% | 8.7% | 2.63 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 2.26 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 16.9% | 8.3% | 2.04 | 20.1% | 9.6% | 2.09 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 15.2% | 8.5% | 1.79 | |||
| Yohan Flande | COL | 13.9% | 9.2% | 1.51 | 18.9% | 10.9% | 1.73 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 33.3% | 17.1% | 1.95 | 33.3% | 17.1% | 1.95 |
Collin McHugh – I’ve been hoping for upside in his K% for a while now, but it’s actually decreased in July despite no drop in his SwStr% over the last month. I’m still hopeful he can get back to at least league average.
Jake Odorizzi has had a K% drop off, but no real change in SwStr% over the last month. There’s no reason for concern.
Jordan Zimmermann has shown a spike in K% this month that probably isn’t real.
Mike Leake has increased his SwStr% slightly over the last month, but not enough to support the jump in K%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 4.28 | 4.71 | 0.43 | 5.1 | 0.82 | 5.22 | 0.94 | 4.98 | 4.96 | -0.02 | 5.39 | 0.41 | 5.47 | 0.49 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.33 | 3.23 | -0.1 | 3.34 | 0.01 | 3.56 | 0.23 | 4.15 | 3.46 | -0.69 | 3.43 | -0.72 | 4.27 | 0.12 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 3.59 | 3.99 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.41 | 3.71 | 0.12 | 2.56 | 4.65 | 2.09 | 4.59 | 2.03 | 3.54 | 0.98 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.59 | 4 | -0.59 | 4.05 | -0.54 | 4.57 | -0.02 | 5.28 | 4.32 | -0.96 | 4.57 | -0.71 | 5.12 | -0.16 |
| Chris Capuano | NYY | 5.64 | 3.44 | -2.2 | 3.8 | -1.84 | 4.52 | -1.12 | 8.31 | 4.34 | -3.97 | 5.51 | -2.8 | 8.6 | 0.29 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 3.32 | 4.99 | 1.67 | 5.08 | 1.76 | 4.61 | 1.29 | 4.31 | 4.96 | 0.65 | 5.11 | 0.8 | 5.65 | 1.34 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.25 | 3.82 | -0.43 | 3.87 | -0.38 | 3.81 | -0.44 | 2.7 | 3.75 | 1.05 | 3.67 | 0.97 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | 6.43 | 3.97 | -2.46 | 4.07 | -2.36 | 3.07 | -3.36 | 6.43 | 3.97 | -2.46 | 4.07 | -2.36 | 3.07 | -3.36 |
| David Price | DET | 2.31 | 3.24 | 0.93 | 3.19 | 0.88 | 2.82 | 0.51 | 2 | 2.63 | 0.63 | 2.57 | 0.57 | 2.93 | 0.93 |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 4.34 | 3.39 | -0.95 | 3.69 | -0.65 | 3.33 | -1.01 | 4.34 | 3.39 | -0.95 | 3.69 | -0.65 | 3.33 | -1.01 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 3.44 | -1.06 | 5.14 | 0.64 | 3.16 | 3.13 | -0.03 | 3.21 | 0.05 | 4.43 | 1.27 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.69 | 2.72 | 1.03 | 2.93 | 1.24 | 2.98 | 1.29 | |||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.85 | 3.9 | 1.05 | 3.85 | 1 | 3.33 | 0.48 | 4.8 | 5.39 | 0.59 | 5 | 0.2 | 5.33 | 0.53 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.77 | 3.29 | -0.48 | 3.31 | -0.46 | 4.12 | 0.35 | 2.17 | 4.2 | 2.03 | 4 | 1.83 | 4.69 | 2.52 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 3.91 | 3.81 | -0.1 | 3.86 | -0.05 | 3.53 | -0.38 | 2.31 | 4.29 | 1.98 | 4.36 | 2.05 | 3.27 | 0.96 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.3 | 3.89 | 0.59 | 3.85 | 0.55 | 3.16 | -0.14 | 2.93 | 3.26 | 0.33 | 3.48 | 0.55 | 3.39 | 0.46 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.77 | 2.09 | -0.68 | 1.98 | -0.79 | 1.57 | -1.2 | 2.77 | 2.09 | -0.68 | 1.98 | -0.79 | 1.57 | -1.2 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.49 | 4.11 | -0.38 | 4.01 | -0.48 | 4.37 | -0.12 | 3.98 | 3.69 | -0.29 | 3.55 | -0.43 | 3.13 | -0.85 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.91 | 5.58 | 0.67 | 5.12 | 0.21 | 3.98 | -0.93 | 4.91 | 5.58 | 0.67 | 5.12 | 0.21 | 3.98 | -0.93 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.09 | 3.86 | -0.23 | 3.98 | -0.11 | 4.57 | 0.48 | 4.09 | 3.86 | -0.23 | 3.98 | -0.11 | 4.57 | 0.48 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 3.78 | 3.85 | 0.07 | 3.61 | -0.17 | 3.94 | 0.16 | 3.38 | 3.35 | -0.03 | 3.13 | -0.25 | 2.44 | -0.94 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3.94 | 4.55 | 0.61 | 4.46 | 0.52 | 4.15 | 0.21 | 7.78 | 4.96 | -2.82 | 4.79 | -2.99 | 4.69 | -3.09 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.97 | 3.15 | 0.18 | 3.14 | 0.17 | 2.81 | -0.16 | 1.73 | 3.3 | 1.57 | 3.23 | 1.5 | 2.99 | 1.26 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 3.38 | 1.08 | 2.96 | 0.66 | 3.1 | 3.97 | 0.87 | 3.77 | 0.67 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 4.29 | 3.83 | -0.46 | 4 | -0.29 | 4.25 | -0.04 | 5.46 | 3.18 | -2.28 | 3.41 | -2.05 | 5.49 | 0.03 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.81 | 3.52 | -0.29 | 3.38 | -0.43 | 3.66 | -0.15 | 5 | 3.87 | -1.13 | 3.81 | -1.19 | 4.77 | -0.23 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 4.33 | 4.39 | 0.06 | 4.3 | -0.03 | 3.96 | -0.37 | 3.96 | 4.26 | 0.3 | 4.05 | 0.09 | 4 | 0.04 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3.93 | -0.07 | 4.58 | 0.58 | |||||||
| Yohan Flande | COL | 4.24 | 3.32 | -0.92 | 3.67 | -0.57 | 3.36 | -0.88 | 1.86 | 2.1 | 0.24 | 2.94 | 1.08 | 3.27 | 1.41 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 0 | 1.81 | 1.81 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 0 | 1.81 | 1.81 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.23 | 1.23 |
David Price has a pretty run of the mill .294 BABIP. His 79.0 LOB% is a bit high, but not too extreme. His 7.9 HR/FB is a bit low, but not much below 9.0 career HR/FB. In cases like these, where it’s difficult to find the reason for the gap between an ERA and estimators, I check the unearned runs total last. Sure enough, he has nine this year. There’s potentially a little bit of regression here, but he’s generally fine. We know who he is at this point.
Hisashi Iwakuma – It’s all in the 23.8 HR/FB.
Jake Odorizzi has a great defense behind him, so I won’t even quibble too much with the .257 BABIP or 78.3 LOB%. He has a beneficial home park in which he’s allowed just one of his seven HRs this year, though has struggled in some of the other parks of the NL East. In total, that’s led to a 7.1 HR/FB, which I’m also sort of ok with. Even so, just a league average 13.0 K-BB% tends combined with all of this tends to see him as a good, but not great pitcher by his FIP. There’s likely some regression here.
James Shields has a .236 BABIP with a 92.6 LOB% and just a 9.9 K-BB% in July.
Jose Fernandez has estimators that believe his ERA is actually too high! A 28.4 K-BB% is more than flat out dominant and while his 5.9 HR/FB is unlikely to be sustainable, his .323 BABIP is in line for some regression. While he hasn’t induced many pop ups, his Z-Contact% is well below average.
Sonny Gray pitches in a haven for pop ups with all that foul ground, but this is the first year he’s really taken advantage of it. The 14.8 LD% is absurd and has actually increased over the last two months. That and his 6.9 HR/FB are backed by a 1.5 Hard-Soft% this season. Do to the surrounding circumstances in addition to batted ball rates and authority, his BABIP seems ok. I expect slight regression in his HR rate and 79.2 LOB%, though I do think he has some estimator beating criteria in place.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.319 | 0.298 | -0.021 | 11.4% | 87.5% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.300 | 0.322 | 0.022 | 1.5% | 92.2% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 0.277 | 0.277 | 0 | 10.1% | 88.7% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.297 | 0.274 | -0.023 | 7.3% | 92.5% |
| Chris Capuano | NYY | 0.298 | 0.348 | 0.05 | 3.2% | 84.7% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.279 | 0.210 | -0.069 | 11.7% | 87.0% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.281 | 0.310 | 0.029 | 8.9% | 86.8% |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | 0.293 | 0.400 | 0.107 | 0.0% | 85.3% |
| David Price | DET | 0.303 | 0.294 | -0.009 | 10.7% | 82.4% |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 0.289 | 0.362 | 0.073 | 14.3% | 93.7% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.288 | 0.264 | -0.024 | 7.1% | 92.7% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.291 | 0.237 | -0.054 | 3.8% | 91.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.276 | 0.257 | -0.019 | 8.1% | 86.2% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.299 | 0.314 | 0.015 | 10.7% | 83.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.315 | 0.300 | -0.015 | 10.4% | 86.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.311 | 0.315 | 0.004 | 11.8% | 90.9% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.287 | 0.323 | 0.036 | 5.9% | 82.4% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.304 | 0.307 | 0.003 | 13.6% | 85.2% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.294 | 0.375 | 0.081 | 33.3% | 91.8% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.286 | 0.290 | 0.004 | 3.6% | 87.9% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 0.284 | 0.269 | -0.015 | 8.1% | 94.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.295 | 0.323 | 0.028 | 6.8% | 93.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.282 | 0.298 | 0.016 | 10.8% | 86.5% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.282 | 0.251 | -0.031 | 11.2% | 87.9% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.308 | 0.267 | -0.041 | 13.0% | 87.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.287 | 0.321 | 0.034 | 12.2% | 87.6% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.302 | 0.293 | -0.009 | 9.9% | 88.6% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.305 | 0.320 | 0.015 | 10.2% | 91.3% |
| Yohan Flande | COL | 0.314 | 0.298 | -0.016 | 0.0% | 86.4% |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 0.291 | 0.308 | 0.017 | 0.0% | 70.8% |
Collin McHugh – We’ve talked about the BABIP gap between last year’s .259 and this year’s .310. The IFFB and Z-Contact are a bit worse, but the latter is still very good. His 19.1 LD% is exactly five points lower than last year. With a solid defense and lots of shifting, I think there’s a strong chance he’ll eventually drop below .300 before the season is over.
Trevor Bauer has a great pop up rate with a high fly ball rate (44.1%) and low LD rate (17.3%), but this is still the Cleveland defense. The other Cleveland pitchers do allow a bit more hard contact though, so I wonder what his BABIP would look like on a more neutral team.
Ubaldo Jimenez has a great pop up rate, but doesn’t allow a lot of fly balls (29.2%) and has the highest LD rate (25.2%) of his career, although he’s not been hit particularly hard overall (8.0 Hard-Soft%). That line drive rate is going to have to improve if he expects his BABIP to.
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Yohan Flande seems like a decent high risk flier to take as your #2 in GPPs tonight. He’s at minimum price across the board and even though he’s pitched entirely out of the pen this year, has some upside in his SwStr%. Normally I wouldn’t pay much attention to that at this point except that the Cubs have been terrible at home and strike out a lot. The upside is around 15 points (DK) in five innings, which should put him far ahead of anyone else today and I don’t think it’s that far-fetched that he comes close to that.
Value Tier Two
Hisashi Iwakuma (3t) is high risk because of his HR tendencies and the fact that he allows a lot of them at home. The fact that he has no real platoon split and the Diamondbacks have Paul Goldschmidt does concern you, but they don’t have a lot of power outside of him (Peralta basically) and it’s still a great matchup for him. His last three starts have been very good and the price is closer to the middle of the board than the high end, so hopefully he’s back in form.
Jose Fernandez (1) has been the nuts so far and has a basically neutral matchup, but carries an extremely high price tag for someone who may be on a pitch count, though he threw a season high 96 in his last start. He has, by far, the top projected K% tonight.
Value Tier Two A
Brett Anderson (6) finds himself in another decent spot at home at a very reasonable price. That seems to be the case every time he starts. There’s not a lot of upside in his strikeout rate and maybe less against a team like Oakland, but they have little power and should continue generating the weak ground balls he’s so often produced this year.
Value Tier Three
Noah Syndergaard (3t) struck out a bunch of Padres last time he faced them, but was BABIP’d and didn’t last five innings. He’s been fairly dominant since and has enormous upside here, priced in the second tier of pitchers, although a bit higher on DraftKings. He has my 3rd highest projected K% tonight and the last well above average one.
David Price (2) has been pitching great and would be higher in his homecoming in a great park except that the Rays seem to have a lot of success against LHP. I don’t expect them to have much success here, but he’s the top priced pitcher on just about every site and might not have the upside of a Jose Fernandez, though I’d expect him to go deeper and has my 2nd highest projected K% tonight.
Jordan Zimmermann (5) is a good pitcher in a great spot tonight and would be higher if there were more upside to his K%, which should be around average tonight. He’s price slightly above average across the board, except on DraftKings again, where he’s closer to mid-range.
Chris Capuano – This is strictly cost and opponent based, but I guess I’m going with the two lefty spot starters as my Dumpster Diving Specials tonight. I don’t expect more than four innings or so out of him, but he has the ability to generate a few strikeouts and the Rangers have been terrible vs LHP.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
There’s a large chunk of “meh” tonight.
Matt Cain (7t) – In a great home matchup, there’s not much separating him from some of the pitchers just above, but the price is a tad higher than I hoped.
James Shields (7t) has really been average, but is priced as much better. The strikeout rate should help him just about cover it though on some sites.
Julio Teheran has my #4 projected K%, though not very much above average and with a lot of risk in Baltimore.
Trevor Bauer owns such an enormous range of potential outcomes with a reduced ceiling tonight.
The Wildcard: Zachary Godley – He’s in a great spot and showed some upside in his debut, but I have no idea what he’ll do here. The hard hit rate bothers me, but I can’t figure out how that math was contrived to possibly get the numbers on his fangraphs page.
Finally, the three I believe are not bad, but slightly over-priced tonight in not great spots:
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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