Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, August 19th
As usual on Wednesday, we’re only covering the night games, but we’re going to list all of the games even and try to get this out there before the early start today. Working towards that, let’s skip the long-winded introduction and get straight to the main course. And it looks like for the third day in a row a team has done a late swap on a pitcher, but conveniently for me it’s a day game as Mat Latos is replaced by Alex Wood. The last two days I was able to catch it in time, but wasn’t as fortunate today.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -5.4 | 5.3 | 5.57 | 0.6 | 1.01 | 5.43 | 4.96 | TOR | 99 | 126 | 89 | 16.2% | 7.3% | 19.4% | 10.1% | 12.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -3 | 2.81 | 6.89 | 1.42 | 1.07 | 2.64 | 2.67 | BOS | 112 | 96 | 197 | 22.2% | 6.5% | 18.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -1.8 | 3.01 | 6.85 | 3.5 | 1.01 | 2.68 | 3.43 | TAM | 97 | 114 | 127 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 20.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.9 | 5.03 | 4.8 | 0.76 | 1.05 | 4.96 | 5.18 | CHC | 90 | 94 | 127 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 3.5 | 4.15 | 5.72 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 3.76 | SEA | 94 | 98 | 125 | ||||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.9 | 3.95 | 6.24 | 1.19 | 1.02 | 3.77 | 6.21 | NYY | 116 | 104 | 112 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 21.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -3.9 | 4.04 | 5.6 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 3.69 | 2.96 | ARI | 93 | 97 | 76 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 21.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.1 | 3.01 | 6.56 | 3.07 | 0.98 | 2.97 | 3.18 | SFO | 107 | 102 | 109 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -6.6 | 3.49 | 6.73 | 1.38 | 0.91 | 3.63 | 5.15 | ANA | 104 | 100 | 91 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 21.2% | 12.9% | 10.4% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 2 | 4.36 | 6.33 | 0.7 | 0.91 | 3.84 | 3.57 | CHW | 89 | 92 | 76 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 18.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 9.3 | 4.66 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 4.36 | 5.94 | CIN | 102 | 90 | 76 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 21.7% | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -7.9 | 3.68 | 5.95 | 1.16 | 0.93 | 3.81 | 3.43 | LOS | 106 | 114 | 132 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 21.7% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -4 | 4.24 | 5.52 | 1.85 | 1.07 | 3.98 | 3.53 | CLE | 89 | 99 | 97 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 22.2% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 5 | 3.22 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.05 | 2.93 | 3.28 | DET | 102 | 113 | 101 | 24.2% | 6.9% | 21.9% | 8.0% | 11.1% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -0.7 | 4.13 | 5.6 | 1.76 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 3.59 | WAS | 95 | 91 | 79 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 18.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -3.6 | 3.82 | 6.36 | 0.9 | 0.84 | 4.11 | 3.84 | SDG | 94 | 92 | 141 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 20.2% | 9.6% | 7.2% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 3.8 | 4.24 | 5.33 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 2.6 | 5.46 | KAN | 94 | 102 | 103 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 20.8% | 9.2% | 13.4% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | -1.8 | 4.32 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 1.01 | 4.13 | 5.72 | PHI | 89 | 96 | 102 | 15.4% | 5.5% | 21.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 2.9 | 4.02 | 6.09 | 1.2 | 0.93 | 3.74 | 3.47 | OAK | 99 | 96 | 104 | 18.2% | 6.4% | 20.2% | 11.7% | 8.8% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 1 | 4.29 | 5.87 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 4.57 | 5.99 | STL | 101 | 99 | 89 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 21.7% | 14.1% | 8.1% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | -3.1 | 4.34 | 5.87 | 1.69 | 1.08 | 4.23 | 5.08 | TEX | 98 | 88 | 110 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 19.9% | 16.5% | 6.8% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 10.6 | 3.81 | 5.68 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 3.72 | 4.29 | HOU | 113 | 102 | 98 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 20.2% | 18.3% | 8.5% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -6.6 | 3.98 | 5.89 | 1.53 | 1.02 | 3.67 | 4.64 | MIN | 75 | 90 | 115 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 21.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2 | 3.11 | 6.19 | 1.26 | 1.04 | 3.52 | 3.96 | BAL | 112 | 102 | 127 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 19.7% | 15.3% | 8.2% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.5 | 4.18 | 5.4 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 4.27 | 4.58 | PIT | 107 | 98 | 118 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 12.4% | 5.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -3 | 2.84 | 5.81 | 1.48 | 1.4 | 2.85 | 1.68 | COL | 97 | 99 | 80 | 25.7% | 6.0% | 22.9% | 13.0% | 8.8% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.8 | 4.38 | 5.94 | 1.23 | 1.07 | 4.53 | 5.29 | MIL | 85 | 89 | 67 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 19.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -7.8 | 3.22 | 6.05 | 2.86 | 0.84 | 2.78 | 3.06 | ATL | 82 | 89 | 97 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 18.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.9 | 3.79 | 5.76 | 1.35 | 1.04 | 3.89 | 3.21 | NYM | 77 | 90 | 90 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 21.3% | 11.3% | 13.3% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -5.1 | 3.99 | 6.06 | 1.76 | 1.07 | 3.56 | 4.99 | FLA | 87 | 80 | 114 | 16.9% | 5.9% | 21.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% |
Corey Kluber has pitched back to back complete games with two total runs allowed and 17 strikeouts. Suddenly, he’s in the conversation for Cy Young again (or should be), and it might just take a Cy Young award candidate to thwart these Red Sox right now, who seem oblivious to the change and upheaval going around the organization since John Farrell announced the unfortunate circumstances for his leave. His underlying numbers, aside from strand rate, are very close and even identical to last season in some cases despite an ERA nearly a run higher. The Red Sox are a strong home team, strike out just 16.6% vs RHP, and remain unbelievably hot over the last week (14.5 K%, 17.4 HR/FB, 19.3 Hard-Soft%). They are the worst park-adjusted matchup tonight outside of Colorado.
Dallas Keuchel equals tons of weak ground balls with an above average strikeout rate. He is literally near the top of the league in ground balls (63.2%) and weak contact (-4.8 Hard-Soft%). It’s consistent and I’m not sure it gets much better than that, so there’s no need to sell you further on him. There is a bit of an issue in the way in which the Rays handle LHP. They do it well but strike out slightly more than the average team both on the road and vs LHP. In fact, they are the 2nd best offense vs LHP and have a 25.4 LD% over the last week, representing a poor park adjusted matchup tonight.
J.A. Happ has only compiled 9.2 innings and allowed five ERs in his two Pittsburgh starts, but has struck out 13 of the 46 batters he’s faced. Although he’s new to Pittsburgh, he pitched in a similar park that was death to RH power for most of the season and was a bit below average there by his underlying numbers, allowing just two HRs over his last nine starts with both teams. Arizona is a neutral opponent, who strike out slightly above average and haven’t hit well over the last week (3.2 HR/FB). A negative park adjustment makes them a very good matchup here.
Jaime Garcia has sure been dominant. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last 15.1 innings with a -28.2 Hard-Soft%. He has just an average 12.3 K-BB% with an ERA well ahead of his estimators, but that doesn’t make him a bad pitcher. His 67.0 GB% would be just enough to lead the league if he had enough innings and he has a better 16.9 K-BB% at home since last season in limited work. Tons of weak ground balls with a reasonable strikeout rate. That sounds like a couple of other pitchers we usually like, although at a much higher price. San Francisco is the top road offense in baseball, decent vs LHP and has hit well over the last week (19.9 Hard-Soft%). With a slight downward adjustment for the park, they remain about an average matchup.
Jeff Samardzija has allowed at least six ERs in each of his last three starts and has a 7.76 ERA over the last month. His season has been a nightmare, but we know he’s probably not that bad and now have to wonder if we can find value in a reduced price tag. The velocity is fine and his control is not off. He’s missing fewer bats but still has an average 12.7 K-BB% Let’s see if we can work through this in the charts below. The Angels are about an average offense at home vs RHP, which turns into a favorable matchup.
Jered Weaver looked great in his first start back from injury and much more mediocre in his second with similar results. His numbers are still poor for the season, but there might be some reason for slight optimism starting in his SwStr rate below. The White Sox strike out about average, don’t walk much, have a 6.1 Hard-Soft% overall and are a great park adjusted matchup.
Jon Lester is putting up exactly the same underlying numbers as last season, despite an ERA that’s still very good, but 75 points higher than last season. He’s been even better than that, not allowing more than two ERs in a start since the break with an increased strikeout rate, going at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts. Detroit is a neutral road team, but tough on LHP, though they do strike out at a higher than average rate and 26.0% over the last week. With a positive offensive park adjustment, it’s an unfavorable matchup tonight.
Keyvius Sampson has had four good starts by ERA, but more mediocre by the underlying numbers. His 11.4 K-BB% is just below average due to a high walk rate, but his ERA has been kept low by a .218 BABIP so far. We won’t go much deeper except to say he has generated more fly balls than grounders so far and much more hard contact (22.9 Hard-Soft%) than you should be comfortable with. The Royals don’t walk, strikeout, or homer all that often and represent a very neutral adjustment with a small upward park adjustment, but even that doesn’t factor in the loss of their middle of the order DH.
Nate Karns has been very average but generates an above average strikeout rate. He walked five in his last start and HRs can occasionally plague him (seven over his last six starts) and that’s really what it’s going to come down to tonight. The Astros are a good home offense (17.8 HR/FB), average vs RHP, but with power (14.8 HR/FB), and a slightly unfavorable matchup. They strike out enough to maybe make it worth the effort though (23.9% at home, 23.8% vs RHP). In fact, it puts Karns in competition for the top projected strikeout rate today with one of the other two guys pitching in Coors Field.
Noah Syndergaard has struggled early in each of his last two starts and has allowed eight ERs in his last 11 innings with five of his 11 HRs allowed over his last three starts. He still maintains an impressive 20.3 K-BB% and 2.8 Hard-Soft% in his rookie season, though he’s been a bit worse on the road and travels to a tough park tonight to face a team with a lot of power and high HR rates, but also a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP. It’s a tough overall park adjusted matchup.
Stephen Strasburg has struck out 20 of 50 batters, allowing just three ERs in 13 innings since returning. It turned out to be a mistake if you didn’t immediately discard Jordan Zimmermann last night at a reasonable price in Colorado like I suggested, but I’d actually consider tonight’s pitcher even more strongly against a league average offense that turns into tonight’s worst matchup solely due to park effects. The Rockies have a 14.5 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 14.2 K-BB%.
Ubaldo Jimenez has ridden a lot of ups and downs to a pretty average season. It’s just that you rarely ever get the average performance. It’s generally been one extreme or the other and even more so lately. He does strike out an average rate of batters, although that’s down over the last month, and has his highest GB/FB (1.7) since 2009, which allows him to keep his HRs reasonable, though he’s allowed seven in six starts since the break. The Mets are the 2nd worst road offense in baseball (16.1 K-BB%, 7.9 HR/FB) and below average vs RHP with a 26.1 K% over the last week. They remain a favorable opponent even with the park bump.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Robbie Ray (.297 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 6.4 HR/FB) – The HR rate may play in Pittsburgh as a lefty, but the Pirates do have an 11.9 HR/FB vs LHP and the 23.6 Hard-Soft% along with basically league average stuff is too concerning here.
Mark Buehrle (.272 BABIP – 74.7 LOB% – 9.6 HR/FB) – The BABIP is nearly 20 points below his career average, but not too low, so none of these numbers are too far off, but his 11.6 K% does very little for your daily fantasy team at a mid-range cost that necessitates he goes deep into the game and pitch well just to break even.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jorge de la Rosa
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 12.3% | 6.6% | Home | 13.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 2.2% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.2% | 5.2% | Road | 28.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 3.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 20.0% | 6.3% | Home | 22.6% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 4.8% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 15.6% | 10.2% | Road | 16.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 16.4% | 5.8% | Home | 14.4% | 2.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 19.6% | 7.6% | Road | 19.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 4.3% | 8.5% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 19.3% | 7.6% | Home | 21.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 6.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 20.0% | 5.5% | Home | 20.8% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 8.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.8% | 5.1% | Road | 20.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 17.0% | 6.1% | Home | 21.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 12.8% | 5.7% | Road | 15.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 6.1% | 8.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 21.6% | 7.4% | Home | 19.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 7.6% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.8% | 8.9% | Home | 18.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 8.5% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 24.2% | 5.8% | Home | 25.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 7.6% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.7% | 9.5% | Home | 20.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.1% | 7.0% | Road | 19.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 6.1% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 21.4% | 10.0% | Home | 34.8% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 13.4% | 4.8% | Road | 12.2% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Mat Latos | Dodgers | 17.9% | 6.1% | Road | 19.4% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 4.9% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 17.2% | 7.7% | Road | 15.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 17.2% | 9.0% | Road | 18.5% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 23.2% | 8.9% | Road | 24.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 15.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.7% | 5.9% | Home | 17.0% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 25.9% | 5.6% | Road | 24.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 18.9% | 7.6% | Road | 18.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 11.4% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 27.1% | 5.7% | Road | 25.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 4.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.4% | 8.8% | Road | 16.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.7% | 9.4% | Home | 26.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.4% | 9.9% | Home | 20.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 5.7% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 17.5% | 7.6% | Home | 18.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 5.5% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.9% | 8.0% | LH | 17.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 7.8% | RH | 16.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 14.5% | 9.8% |
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 7.3% | LH | 21.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.8% | 9.5% | LH | 24.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.4% | 7.4% | LH | 21.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.1% | 9.0% | RH | 19.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.7% | 7.6% | LH | 21.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Road | 18.7% | 7.1% | LH | 19.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.9% |
| Angels | Home | 20.0% | 7.7% | RH | 19.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.0% | 5.5% | RH | 20.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Home | 18.9% | 8.8% | RH | 19.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.5% | 10.0% | RH | 20.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.4% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 8.5% | RH | 19.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.3% | 7.1% | LH | 22.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.0% | 6.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.1% | 8.0% | LH | 21.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.4% |
| Padres | Home | 22.5% | 6.5% | RH | 21.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.6% | 8.8% |
| Royals | Road | 16.6% | 5.4% | RH | 15.6% | 6.2% | L7Days | 12.3% | 10.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.9% | 6.4% | LH | 20.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.1% | 7.4% | RH | 17.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.7% | 8.4% | RH | 19.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.9% | 8.3% | LH | 22.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.7% |
| Astros | Home | 23.9% | 9.1% | RH | 23.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.4% | 6.8% | RH | 20.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.5% | 6.8% | RH | 22.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.5% | 7.1% | LH | 22.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.1% | 7.1% | RH | 20.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 6.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.9% |
| Braves | Road | 18.1% | 6.7% | RH | 17.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.0% |
| Mets | Road | 22.6% | 6.5% | RH | 20.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 6.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.2% | 6.1% | RH | 19.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 16.5% | 3.8% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 18.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | Home | 26.5% | 6.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | Road | 22.7% | 6.9% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 5.0% | 10.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | Home | 18.6% | 6.5% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 18.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% | Road | 18.9% | 9.3% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 19.5% | 8.8% | 5.9% | Home | 17.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 23.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | Road | 25.3% | 9.1% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.4% | 11.0% | 10.2% | Home | 21.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 17.3% | 14.9% | 4.5% | Home | 17.2% | 17.4% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.5% | 11.4% | 10.2% | Road | 20.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 19.0% | 9.1% | 12.6% | Home | 19.0% | 6.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 22.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | Road | 22.4% | 12.8% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.9% | 10.1% | 11.4% | Home | 25.2% | 7.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 22.0% | 11.2% | 6.1% | Home | 26.9% | 9.6% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.4% | 6.9% | 12.2% | Home | 21.2% | 5.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.6% | 13.5% | 7.3% | Home | 18.0% | 15.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 23.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | Road | 25.0% | 12.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 20.8% | 9.5% | 19.0% | Home | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.1% | 21.4% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 20.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | Road | 22.2% | 6.9% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Mat Latos | Dodgers | 22.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | Road | 20.4% | 6.9% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 21.3% | 13.4% | 11.3% | Road | 24.0% | 17.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 19.5% | 13.0% | 5.2% | Road | 22.6% | 16.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 20.5% | 13.2% | 7.6% | Road | 20.3% | 9.2% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | Home | 21.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 21.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | Road | 20.3% | 11.6% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | Road | 20.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 23.2% | 13.0% | 8.9% | Road | 24.7% | 15.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | Road | 17.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.1% | 9.9% | 6.1% | Home | 18.3% | 4.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | Home | 22.3% | 11.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.5% | 13.4% | 8.1% | Home | 20.6% | 17.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.9% | 13.0% | 14.1% | LH | 20.3% | 13.3% | 18.8% | L7Days | 16.7% | 13.2% | 15.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.7% | 11.3% | 9.2% | RH | 20.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | L7Days | 18.0% | 17.4% | 2.9% |
| Rays | Road | 21.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | LH | 20.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 11.4% | 18.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | 11.2% | LH | 24.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.0% | 23.2% | 12.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.5% | 13.5% | 7.4% | LH | 21.3% | 13.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 17.0% | 3.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.4% | 14.7% | 11.4% | RH | 21.0% | 13.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 11.9% | 8.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.9% | LH | 18.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 3.2% | 6.5% |
| Giants | Road | 22.2% | 12.5% | 5.9% | LH | 21.2% | 8.3% | 3.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.3% | 1.8% |
| Angels | Home | 21.5% | 12.4% | 10.3% | RH | 20.5% | 11.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.8% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 9.5% | 10.6% | RH | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.0% | 10.5% | 7.9% |
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 12.8% | 8.5% | RH | 20.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.2% | 13.5% | 9.6% | RH | 21.6% | 14.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 13.0% | 10.1% |
| Indians | Road | 20.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | RH | 21.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.0% | 12.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.3% | 11.7% | 7.8% | LH | 24.9% | 11.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.5% | 12.1% | 15.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.1% | 13.1% | 9.3% | LH | 20.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Padres | Home | 19.6% | 11.4% | 7.0% | RH | 19.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.1% | 14.5% | 4.8% |
| Royals | Road | 23.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | RH | 21.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | LH | 22.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.8% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.5% | 6.7% | 11.3% | RH | 20.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 11.1% | 7.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | RH | 22.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.6% | 11.4% | 8.7% | LH | 19.9% | 12.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 12.7% | 11.3% |
| Astros | Home | 18.3% | 17.8% | 9.7% | RH | 20.2% | 14.8% | 11.2% | L7Days | 18.0% | 11.7% | 10.0% |
| Twins | Road | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | RH | 20.9% | 10.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 20.0% | 6.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.7% | 16.5% | 7.7% | RH | 20.6% | 14.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 18.8% | 3.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.6% | 11.5% | 5.9% | LH | 23.0% | 11.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.3% | 5.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.6% | 13.3% | 8.5% | RH | 21.4% | 14.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.4% | 11.2% | 6.8% | RH | 21.1% | 9.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | RH | 21.8% | 7.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 14.5% | 9.3% | 2.3% |
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 7.9% | 10.9% | RH | 22.5% | 10.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% | RH | 20.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.4% | 8.9% | 17.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 12.3% | 9.8% | 1.26 | 9.5% | 9.8% | 0.97 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.0% | 12.6% | 2.14 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 2.36 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.34 | 27.0% | 10.9% | 2.48 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 16.0% | 8.7% | 1.84 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 1.65 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.0% | 11.1% | 0.00 | |||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 13.0% | 9.3% | 1.40 | 10.5% | 10.0% | 1.05 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 18.5% | 7.6% | 2.43 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 2.20 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.8% | 7.9% | 2.38 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 2.30 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 17.5% | 10.0% | 1.75 | 11.0% | 7.5% | 1.47 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 13.1% | 8.5% | 1.54 | 21.7% | 13.2% | 1.64 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 11.1% | 5.9% | 1.88 | 8.1% | 4.0% | 2.03 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.34 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 2.41 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 19.5% | 7.7% | 2.53 | 23.7% | 9.7% | 2.44 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.9% | 10.5% | 2.37 | 30.6% | 12.2% | 2.51 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.81 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 1.60 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.2% | 10.9% | 1.85 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.17 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 21.4% | 8.0% | 2.68 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 2.68 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 11.6% | 5.0% | 2.32 | 8.8% | 4.1% | 2.15 |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 1.80 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 15.2% | 9.0% | 1.69 | 12.3% | 8.3% | 1.48 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 17.2% | 8.6% | 2.00 | 16.4% | 8.9% | 1.84 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 22.9% | 8.4% | 2.73 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 2.53 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.3% | 8.1% | 2.01 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 2.05 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 25.9% | 11.3% | 2.29 | 26.0% | 11.1% | 2.34 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 20.9% | 8.0% | 2.61 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 2.23 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 25.4% | 9.2% | 2.76 | 40.0% | 15.1% | 2.65 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.46 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 2.01 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.0% | 12.1% | 2.07 | 25.8% | 10.2% | 2.53 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.53 | 15.7% | 7.7% | 2.04 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 13.6% | 7.6% | 1.79 | 10.1% | 5.4% | 1.87 |
Jeff Samardzija is missing fewer bats over the last month, but still has a double-digit SwStr% on the season and a 13.6 SwStr% in his last start. Although his SwStr% is low for the last 30 days, it’s not low enough to justify his K%. There’s some hope here.
Jered Weaver has a 20.0 SwStr% in his first start back, but a much lower 7.2 SwStr% in his last start. Neither, nor his season SwStr% suggest his current K% though. His SwStr% isn’t far below recent seasons, yet his K% is greatly reduced. It’s possible he can generate somewhere around 18% strikeouts the rest of the way. That’s not going to make him a good pitcher or even get his ERA below four most likely, but it might provide some value in daily fantasy price.
Stephen Strasburg has hidden a SwStr that’s two points below his career average because his K% hasn’t dropped as far. His two starts since coming off the DL have been well into the double digits with his velocity looking good, so perhaps we have to account for the injury here.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 4.11 | 5.3 | 1.19 | 5.47 | 1.36 | 5.15 | 1.04 | 4.28 | 5.75 | 1.47 | 5.74 | 1.46 | 4.6 | 0.32 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.34 | 2.91 | -0.43 | 2.93 | -0.41 | 2.58 | -0.76 | 3.18 | 3.32 | 0.14 | 3.46 | 0.28 | 2.83 | -0.35 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.36 | 2.77 | 0.41 | 2.7 | 0.34 | 2.74 | 0.38 | 2.88 | 2.43 | -0.45 | 2.39 | -0.49 | 2.32 | -0.56 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.24 | 4.89 | 0.65 | 5.14 | 0.9 | 4.67 | 0.43 | 4.76 | 4.65 | -0.11 | 4.73 | -0.03 | 4.16 | -0.6 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 9 | 6.08 | -2.92 | 5.96 | -3.04 | 16.1 | 7.1 | |||||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 5.66 | 5.1 | -0.56 | 5.13 | -0.53 | 5.58 | -0.08 | 7.07 | 5.47 | -1.6 | 5.58 | -1.49 | 5.71 | -1.36 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 4.64 | 4.08 | -0.56 | 3.96 | -0.68 | 3.97 | -0.67 | 6.75 | 4.32 | -2.43 | 4.18 | -2.57 | 5.66 | -1.09 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 1.57 | 3.07 | 1.5 | 3.14 | 1.57 | 3.17 | 1.6 | 1.37 | 3.64 | 2.27 | 3.44 | 2.07 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 4.78 | 4.06 | -0.72 | 4.12 | -0.66 | 4.01 | -0.77 | 7.76 | 4.95 | -2.81 | 5.06 | -2.7 | 5.59 | -2.17 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.6 | 4.68 | 0.08 | 4.78 | 0.18 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 3.27 | 3.57 | 0.3 | 4.47 | 1.2 | 3.83 | 0.56 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 5.63 | 5.14 | -0.49 | 5.11 | -0.52 | 5.15 | -0.48 | 6.75 | 5.67 | -1.08 | 5.92 | -0.83 | 6.85 | 0.1 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 3.84 | 3.87 | 0.03 | 3.81 | -0.03 | 3.56 | -0.28 | 5.28 | 3.98 | -1.3 | 3.92 | -1.36 | 4.51 | -0.77 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5.69 | 4.12 | -1.57 | 4.04 | -1.65 | 4.29 | -1.4 | 5.76 | 3.46 | -2.3 | 3.74 | -2.02 | 4.62 | -1.14 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.21 | 3.13 | -0.08 | 3.02 | -0.19 | 2.86 | -0.35 | 2.57 | 2.36 | -0.21 | 2.36 | -0.21 | 1.85 | -0.72 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.75 | 4.06 | -0.69 | 3.85 | -0.9 | 4.24 | -0.51 | 6.04 | 3.74 | -2.3 | 3.66 | -2.38 | 3.42 | -2.62 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.44 | 4.13 | -0.31 | 4.05 | -0.39 | 4.27 | -0.17 | 4.11 | 3.45 | -0.66 | 3.4 | -0.71 | 3.04 | -1.07 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 3.18 | 4.24 | 1.06 | 4.34 | 1.16 | 4.1 | 0.92 | 3.18 | 4.24 | 1.06 | 4.34 | 1.16 | 4.1 | 0.92 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 3.31 | 4.47 | 1.16 | 4.22 | 0.91 | 4.03 | 0.72 | 3.21 | 4.97 | 1.76 | 4.79 | 1.58 | 4.38 | 1.17 |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 4.81 | 3.83 | -0.98 | 3.64 | -1.17 | 3.52 | -1.29 | 4.55 | 3.5 | -1.05 | 3.28 | -1.27 | 3.5 | -1.05 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 6.05 | 4.67 | -1.38 | 4.89 | -1.16 | 5.5 | -0.55 | 6.66 | 5.03 | -1.63 | 5.45 | -1.21 | 5.87 | -0.79 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 4.14 | 4.34 | 0.2 | 4.23 | 0.09 | 4.47 | 0.33 | 8.72 | 4.73 | -3.99 | 4.51 | -4.21 | 6.66 | -2.06 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.53 | 3.86 | 0.33 | 3.87 | 0.34 | 4.03 | 0.5 | 3.12 | 3.9 | 0.78 | 4.09 | 0.97 | 5.1 | 1.98 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.26 | 4.04 | -0.22 | 3.87 | -0.39 | 3.62 | -0.64 | 3.48 | 4.32 | 0.84 | 4.15 | 0.67 | 3.75 | 0.27 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 3.07 | 3.11 | 0.04 | 3.09 | 0.02 | 3.09 | 0.02 | 3.09 | 3.28 | 0.19 | 3.18 | 0.09 | 3.92 | 0.83 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.29 | 3.95 | 0.66 | 4 | 0.71 | 3.31 | 0.02 | 5.33 | 4.25 | -1.08 | 4.18 | -1.15 | 4.73 | -0.6 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 4.62 | 3.21 | -1.41 | 3.12 | -1.5 | 3.2 | -1.42 | 2.08 | 1.68 | -0.4 | 1.7 | -0.38 | 1.49 | -0.59 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.68 | 4.44 | 0.76 | 4.35 | 0.67 | 4.27 | 0.59 | 4.75 | 4.43 | -0.32 | 4.39 | -0.36 | 3.7 | -1.05 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.4 | 3.34 | -0.06 | 3.12 | -0.28 | 2.91 | -0.49 | 3.45 | 2.81 | -0.64 | 2.64 | -0.81 | 2.9 | -0.55 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.92 | 3.65 | -0.27 | 3.54 | -0.38 | 3.85 | -0.07 | 6.33 | 4.34 | -1.99 | 4.41 | -1.92 | 5.07 | -1.26 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.07 | 4.41 | 0.34 | 4.27 | 0.2 | 4.55 | 0.48 | 4.24 | 5.22 | 0.98 | 4.93 | 0.69 | 4.39 | 0.15 |
J.A. Happ accumulated his high BABIP with a team that allowed a lower mark as a team and it’s only been .517 in two starts in Pittsburgh. He has a high LD rate (24.8%) but has generated a lot of pop ups with an average Z-Contact% with a bit more than average hard contact. It’s hard to see him gaining much traction here, unless the line drive rate comes down a bit, but he has a 20.3% career rate and that would probably make him a league average pitcher this year.
Jaime Garcia has been very good with his super rate of weak ground balls and nearly average K% but gets a major boost from a regression starved .223 BABIP and 84.9 LOB%. Weak ground balls and a low line drive rate (15.8% this year, 18.3% career) might be one recipe for a low BABIP, but he doesn’t get many free outs via pop up or miss bats in the zone very often, which pretty much makes him a candidate for about a 50 point bounce, while shaving around five to ten off his strand rate. As mentioned, though, that still makes him an above average pitcher with estimators not far over three.
Jeff Samardzija has a .300 BABIP and 10.3 HR/FB right in line with the league and his career standards. His 66.1 LOB% is 4.5 points below his career baseline and even further below league average. So that must be it! Sequencing that’s easily corrected, right? He’s going to be fine. Let’s look at his three terrible August starts. A .333 BABIP is higher, but not terrible. He has allowed five HR’s, good for a 21.7 HR/FB, but he also has just a 40% strand rate. Some of that corrects itself, but if we look at his batted balls this year, we see no change in contact authority overall. That’s great news. We see a fairly normal 21.8 LD%. That’s great news. We see his lowest ground ball rate since he became a full-time starter in 2012. That’s not necessarily bad, but different and why his 10.3 HR/FB has led to such different results. His GB/FB as a starter had never been below 1.35, but is at 1.07 this year as he’s reduced the usage of his two-seamer in favor of his cutter this year per pitchf/x. Perhaps that’s a change that didn’t need to be made? Via Brooks Baseball, he’s been using his slider more than anything else this month, with reduced reliance on his fastball. The sequencing usually works itself out and it doesn’t look like he has to do much other than maybe a mechanical adjustment or change his pitch usage to maybe get out of this funk. Obviously, his coaches know better than I do, but it’s probably more encouraging than not.
Stephen Strasburg isn’t exactly on the best of terms with BABIP. He’s been above .310 in each of the last two seasons and was around .350 for a good portion of last season as well before getting it down into a more acceptable range. With the defense unable to field ground balls this year, it could be even tougher. It’s not all their fault here, though. The LD rate (25.5%) is a little high, with other indicators in his BABIP chart and contact authority rates being normal. What probably happens is that things normalize a little bit and he gets back into that range around .320, which brings his 66.5 LOB% up and ERA down to somewhere around 3.50.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.321 | 0.269 | -0.052 | 9.5% | 87.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.294 | 0.302 | 0.008 | 8.0% | 86.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.283 | 0.265 | -0.018 | 13.0% | 90.1% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.303 | 0.298 | -0.005 | 11.9% | 88.7% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.296 | 0.333 | 0.037 | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.299 | 0.270 | -0.029 | 16.4% | 87.4% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.304 | 0.334 | 0.03 | 13.5% | 87.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.288 | 0.223 | -0.065 | 5.7% | 90.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.313 | 0.300 | -0.013 | 10.3% | 87.1% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.280 | 0.271 | -0.009 | 14.9% | 84.5% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 0.278 | 0.319 | 0.041 | 8.2% | 90.5% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.284 | 0.311 | 0.027 | 15.6% | 85.1% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.309 | 0.330 | 0.021 | 5.0% | 91.5% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.293 | 0.314 | 0.021 | 8.6% | 86.4% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.315 | 0.290 | -0.025 | 4.5% | 86.4% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.306 | 0.304 | -0.002 | 11.3% | 85.0% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 0.282 | 0.217 | -0.065 | 19.0% | 88.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.281 | 0.272 | -0.009 | 7.8% | 92.0% |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 0.301 | 0.300 | -0.001 | 7.0% | 87.7% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.285 | 0.324 | 0.039 | 9.1% | 87.9% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 0.295 | 0.277 | -0.018 | 5.2% | 89.4% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.280 | 0.274 | -0.006 | 6.9% | 87.8% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.298 | 0.341 | 0.043 | 6.1% | 88.2% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.281 | 0.289 | 0.008 | 12.0% | 86.2% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.290 | 0.297 | 0.007 | 5.3% | 88.9% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.309 | 0.352 | 0.043 | 11.6% | 86.2% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.292 | 0.259 | -0.033 | 6.9% | 90.3% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.296 | 0.333 | 0.037 | 4.5% | 85.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.288 | 0.307 | 0.019 | 13.9% | 88.7% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.301 | 0.307 | 0.006 | 7.9% | 91.6% |
No additional notes are necessary.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Today’s ratings and rankings are a lot more speculative than trustworthy as we’re going to be hoping for a lot of good things from mediocre or even below average pitchers in good spots, while the better ones are in poorer or even terrible spots. Note that DK and FD really differ on a lot of these guys today and I’ll try to touch on that throughout.
Value Tier One
J.A. Happ – Wait! This can’t be right. Let me double check. Nope, it’s right. Although on most full days he’d surely be a bit lower, that price tag is too low because we don’t expect him to continue allowing a .500 BABIP in a Pittsburgh uniform. He’s a below average pitcher in a good spot at a great price. I’m obviously not using him in cash games, but I think there’s a good chance he has an above average K% and generates a point total in excess of what’s expected for his price tag.
Value Tier Two
Jaime Garcia (1t) – He could bump on FanDuel, where he’s priced a bit lower and the Win means more, but while the Brett Anderson arsenal plays great at a lower price tag, it’s tough to put a guy like that in the top tier as one of the highest priced guys on the board. His overall numbers are still good, even if not as good as his ERA though and he gets a small bump for missing Hunter Pence from the right side.
Ubaldo Jimenez (7) is in a better spot than a lot of people probably think. The Mets are a terrible road offense who were basically handed the game by a terrible defensive performance by one player last night. Their offense was otherwise two HRs from Curtis Granderson and a couple of doubles from Daniel Murphy. Terry Collins probably won’t realize that DH’ing Michael Cuddyer against a RH ground ball pitcher is a bad idea. End rant.
Jered Weaver – We’re looking at another very flawed low priced pitcher (lower on DraftKings) in a great spot. I think his strikeout rate has some potential and could be close to league average tonight.
Value Tier Three
Jon Lester (1t) is the first of our top tier pitchers in a bad matchup. He’s peaking right now though and the Tigers do lose a DH (for all the discomfort it caused their offense last night). The price tag is lower and DraftKings where I might bump him up a tier. He’s in line with a few others for the top projected K rate tonight.
Stephen Strasburg (5) might be worth considering tonight because all the top pitchers have bad matchups. It’s true that his situation might be the most terrible, but his price is more reasonable and he may generate the top strikeout rate. With everyone scared the hell out of a .350 BABIP in Colorado, it makes for a super contrarian GPP play. Is his matchup really much worse than pitching in Boston tonight?
Dallas Keuchel (1t) is another bad matchup guy and though it’s less bad than some of the other ones, fewer people might realize it’s even bad and it comes at the highest price tag on some sites tonight. It’s still more likely than not to be tons of weak ground balls and something around a league average strikeout rate if not better.
Nate Karns is an average pitcher with a HR problem, who’s not in the most comfortable spot, but not nearly in the worst one today. He gives you a chance for the top K% in a mid-range price tag.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jeff Samardzija – I’m not touching him on FanDuel, where his price suggests nothing bad has happened this year. DraftKings, however, leaves us a lot of room to be speculative in tournaments, which we did a lot of above today.
Corey Kluber (4) – This is like pitching in Colorado with the top price tag.
Noah Syndergaard (6) is another tough matchup at a high price for a guy who’s struggled a bit in his last two starts. He’s struggled a bit more on the road, but should still generate one of the top K rates tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.