Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 14th
Yesterday was a rare in week day off, but to make up for that, there’s more new “stuff” today. That “stuff” is a new Legend or Glossary of stats and terms, which are used daily in this article. It pops open with the button right at the end of this introduction (please work!). Included is the source (website) for each state if readers would like to learn more about each. Wednesday, three year Park Factors were updated to include 2016 results.
Top of the rotation to everyone, as we have some fairly easy choices at the top, but also some interesting arms throughout the board on Friday. After nearly two weeks of split day and night slates, we find ourselves with something close to a normal season Friday, just a couple of games short of a full night compliment as we embark into the meat of the season now.
Just a reminder that we’re using 2017 stats for everything except DRA, Statcast numbers and Team Defense. Please consider sample size for the next couple of weeks.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 1.9 | 3.42 | 5.71 | 52.1% | 1.01 | 3.29 | 2.88 | WAS | 139 | 121 | 91 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 2.2 | 4.13 | 6.37 | 55.9% | 1.03 | 3.97 | 4.33 | BAL | 122 | 115 | 95 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | -5.8 | 7.67 | 1.2 | 36.8% | 1.04 | 8.78 | CHW | 87 | 169 | 108 | |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 2.8 | 4.41 | 5.32 | 39.0% | 0.94 | 4.55 | 3.85 | NYM | 144 | 174 | 115 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -1.4 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 46.8% | 1.13 | 3.57 | 3.47 | BOS | 111 | 104 | 58 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.3 | 2.26 | 7.08 | 49.7% | 0.89 | 2.23 | 2.41 | ARI | 62 | 73 | 106 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.2 | 3.22 | 6.78 | 59.4% | 0.93 | 3.85 | 3.24 | OAK | 111 | 57 | 84 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | -5.1 | 4.24 | 4.96 | 39.7% | 1.09 | 3.67 | 5.96 | CLE | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.9 | 4.02 | 5.84 | 37.6% | 1.06 | 4.05 | 4.15 | ANA | 89 | 92 | 104 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -4.3 | 3.89 | 6.32 | 53.0% | 0.89 | 4.21 | 2.45 | TEX | 151 | 116 | 85 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -2.8 | 3.64 | 6.11 | 47.1% | 0.96 | 3.86 | 4.6 | CHC | 74 | 64 | 113 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 6.5 | 4.06 | 52.3% | 1.06 | 4.36 | 4.25 | KAN | 49 | 76 | 64 | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.9 | 4.36 | 5.32 | 48.6% | 1 | 4.59 | 4.19 | ATL | 90 | 105 | |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.8 | 3.74 | 6.71 | 46.2% | 0.93 | 3.53 | 3.94 | COL | 92 | 74 | 73 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -0.9 | 4.08 | 6.18 | 38.7% | 1 | 3.92 | 4.36 | SDG | 70 | 98 | 97 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -8.3 | 4.44 | 5.87 | 51.5% | 0.93 | 3.97 | 3 | HOU | 131 | 128 | 85 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 9.1 | 3.53 | 5.95 | 49.7% | 0.96 | 3.01 | 3.14 | PIT | 37 | 85 | 77 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 1.9 | 4.82 | 5.88 | 54.6% | 0.89 | 5.04 | 4.81 | SEA | 128 | 16 | 124 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.8 | 3.63 | 6.4 | 47.6% | 1.01 | 3.46 | 5.05 | STL | 76 | 75 | 129 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -5.3 | 4.12 | 5.8 | 45.9% | 1.01 | 4.3 | 2.66 | NYY | 136 | 133 | 107 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.3 | 2.9 | 6.16 | 49.6% | 0.94 | 2.79 | 1.3 | FLA | 89 | 89 | 88 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.1 | 3.73 | 6.47 | 43.8% | 1.13 | 3.9 | 3.2 | TAM | 51 | 94 | 73 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.4 | 4.28 | 5.71 | 48.1% | 1.02 | 4.12 | 3.16 | MIL | 105 | 84 | 103 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 1.1 | 2.97 | 5.9 | 42.0% | 1.01 | 3.29 | 3.46 | PHI | 87 | 103 | 75 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | -7.2 | 4.51 | 5.23 | 0.427 | 1.02 | 4.65 | 4.31 | CIN | 78 | 137 | 112 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.4 | 4.22 | 6. | 0.444 | 1.09 | 4.24 | 2.06 | DET | 111 | 108 | 140 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | -3.1 | 3.89 | 5.95 | 0.491 | 0.93 | 3.54 | 4.1 | SFO | 88 | 87 | 155 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -3.2 | 4.28 | 5.79 | 0.475 | 1.03 | 4.26 | 8 | TOR | 38 | 120 | 80 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -6.1 | 3.65 | 6.55 | 0.471 | 0.89 | 3.42 | 3.35 | LOS | 146 | 131 | 65 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 3.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 | MIN | 130 | 124 | 92 |
Adalberto Mejia throws everything hard and did show some strikeout potential in the minors. He lasted just 51 pitches (22 of which were balls) in his first start, walking two without a strikeout. At best, he’s probably a back end starter, but he’s facing a back end offense tonight, though they’ve started hot against LHP (just 46 PAs) and were competent against LHP last year. They’re also the team he failed against in his initial outing.
Chris Archer is a frequent hard contact generator (90.7 mph aEV, 8.4% Barrels/BBE), whose elite swing and miss ability often lessens the impact when he’s on. Through two starts so far, the bat missing has been more good than elite, though the walk rate has declined and he hasn’t allowed a HR yet (22 Hard% is 15th in the league so far among whatever is considered a qualified pitcher at this point). Boston is one of the most difficult environments for a pitcher outside of Coors, though the Red Sox have been banged up early, also presenting as merely good rather than elite vs RHP so far. They have just a 3.9 HR/FB, but with a 16.7 K% against righties.
Clayton Kershaw “only” struck out six of 26, allowing three bombs in Colorado, failing to pay off a significantly reduced price. Tonight, he’s at home, in one of the most pitcher friendly run environments in baseball. Arizona should be potent against LHP again eventually, but facing guys like Bumgarner to start the season will put you in an early funk.
Dallas Keuchel has generated a far superior GB% than any other pitcher on the board over the last two years. In fact, he’s 4.5 points better than any qualified pitcher in baseball over that span. He only has eight strikeouts, but with a strong 11.8 SwtStr% through his first two starts, in which he’s excelled at keeping the ball down and generating incredibly weak contact (-18.9 Hard-Soft%) on the ground (73.5%). He transitions to one of the most favorable run scoring environments in baseball tonight, though Oakland should eventually be better against LHP than RHP.
Danny Duffy generated an 18.4 SwStr% in his second start, but just three strikeouts in a fluke of a start in Houston. The velocity is down a bit, but less of a concern when he’s still missing bats at a ridiculous rate and allowing hard contact at a rate below 30% so far. The Angels have just 80 PAs against LHP so far, but have struck out at a league average rate in them.
Johnny Cueto has allowed 40% hard contact in starts at Arizona and San Diego, resulting in a high ERA, but an exceptional 13.3 SwStr%. The five walks appear a fluke as well, as he’s throwing a high rate of strikes. He’s in a nice spot at home against the Rockies, in which a strong bounce back should be expected.
Julio Teheran has yet to allow an earned run, for as much relevance as you’d like to consider that fact. He’s unconventional in as much that a high fly ball rate in a previously favorable park have allowed him to beat estimators. He’s generated just eight ground balls (23.5%) through two starts so far and while we know who the Padres probably are too this year (a favorable matchup), the brand new park is really the unknown here.
Kendall Graveman has been getting his traditional early season hype, but there seemed to be more substance to it this year. Before his last start over the weekend, I cited much of that work and wrote:
“This year, the gossip is about a velocity spike (for the second year in a row) and Jeff Sullivan (Fangraphs) gave us two articles in his favor. He did strike out seven of 24 Angels after all with an 11.5 SwStr%, but split his batted balls evenly with five GBs, LDs and FBs each, 40% of that contact being of the hard variety. A third article (not by Sullivan) suggested that the sacrifice of that increased velocity and swinging strikes, might be his ground ball rate. This would actually be a fine tradeoff for our purposes as strikeouts are more important than anything in DFS.”
For a chance, this article actually opted in favor of Graveman and he followed by seven two hit innings with 13 ground balls and a 9.4 SwStr%. He’s thrown virtually nothing but his sinker and has allowed 40% hard contact in each of his first two starts though, which may eventually end up a problem, but less so in Oakland. Houston has come out hot against RHP.
Noah Syndergaard threw a pitch that registered at 94 mph on Sunday night. Only half paying attention, I cringed, thinking that the blister contracted on Opening Day had become a factor until I realized it was a slider. Some of his other pitches are really good too. The Mets and Marlins played a lot of innings, depleting bullpens last night. While the Mets generally try to protect their young studs, perhaps he’ll get a longer leash tonight.
Rick Porcello is a fine pitcher and one who genuinely improved over previous seasons last year, but the Wins artificially drove up his daily fantasy price tag. He actually missed 16 bats against Detroit his last time out, twice his 8% swinging strike rate last season, but did allow 52.4% hard contact. The consideration towards siding with him here is that the Rays have struck out in 27.9% of PAs overall this season and 28.7% of the time vs RHP so far. As a team, they’ve swung through a ridiculous 13.1% of pitches thrown to them this year (the Royals are the only team actually worse).
Tyler Anderson has seen his GB% drop 21.9 points and his hard contact rate jump 18.7 points with a doubling of his walk rate through two starts. However, he’s increased his SwStr% by nearly three points. These differences are eye opening even after just two starts, but he also gets one of the most favorable park transitions available, going from Colorado to San Francisco tonight. Let’s opt to still give him some credit for what he accomplished last year.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Martin Perez (.344 – 90.9% – 11.1 in 2017) has increased his SwStr% and K% through two starts, but his 39% ground ball rate equals his hard contact rate and he’s stranded 90.9% of his runners, while walking 14% of them through two starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Michael Wacha came out firing in his first start, showing increased velocity and more swing and miss in a fine effort against the Reds, but I’m not yet ready to endorse him at Yankee Stadium after just a single improved outing against a below average offense at home. The potential shown in that start does make him a bit more interesting again though and you can probably do worse in your SP2 spot on DraftKings if you have $6.5K left over.
Scott Feldman has struck out 12 of 43 batters so far, which is a bit of a surprise and he is cheap against a strikeout prone offense (27.4% vs RHP so far), but he’s generated just eight ground balls through two starts and a slight reverse split throughout his career. The Brewers do possess RH power. He also may not be a terrible consideration in your SP2 spot on DraftKings though, while likely to see a low (or non-existent) ownership rate.
Aaron Sanchez is a ground ball pitcher (55.9 career GB%), who probably misses bats at a league average rate at best. Against the powerful Baltimore bats against RHP, he’s likely a bit over-priced on today’s board. There’s too much talent.
Felix Hernandez has struck out 12 of 46 batters without a walk so far, but has also allowed three HRs, while he may or may not be dealing with a groin injury. His hard contact rate is only 27.3%, but he’s generated just 40.6% grounders, having been below 50% just once in his career. Hosting the Rangers at Safeco is not a terrible spot, but a pass is probably warranted on this board until we’re clearer on his health status or even what kind of pitcher he’s going to be this year.
Masahiro Tanaka has had a difficult start to the season (4.5 K-BB%, 40.7 GB%) and hasn’t even pitched at Yankee Stadium yet. He’s certainly generating swings and misses, but fewer swings out of the zone while throwing fewer strikes overall resulting in ball four before strike three too often through two starts. The Cardinals add a DH today, likely one of the few NL teams with the depth to support one favorably in an AL park.
Zack Greinke was measurably better in his second start, keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats in line with career rates, but still allowed more than 40% hard contact on reduced velocity. He faces one of the best offenses in baseball against RHP tonight.
Trevor Bauer struck out seven of 23 Diamondbacks in his first start without walking a single one, but on just an 8.8 SwStr% and his blowup potential, while at a low price, is probably not something we want to mess with today against a good Detroit offense.
Daniel Norris is still well regarded among professional talent evaluators, but just hasn’t been able to put it together at the big league level just yet. Although he generated 10 ground balls in his first start, a 5.2 SwStr% resulting in more walks than strikeouts and a 50 Hard% in his first start did not inspire much confidence. He faces what should be a more proficient Cleveland offense against LHP this year with the addition of the yet to get on track Encarnacion this year.
Jhoulys Chacin struck out five of 24 Giants, allowing just four base runners and no runs through nearly seven innings in his last start, but did so on just a 6.3 SwStr% and a significant dip in velocity (two mph) from his first start.
Dylan Covey is closer to 26 than 25 at this point and has thrown fewer than 30 innings above A ball.
Wade Miley walked seven batters in his first start. How does one stick around long enough to walk seven batters in their first start of the season, especially a back end guy? Maybe Buck just elected to not use ANY relievers in non-Save situations this year?
Tommy Millone
JC Ramirez hasn’t started a game since AA in 2011.
Adam Conley was on the mound for the Marlins, serving up a game winning HR just after midnight and will not be pitching tonight. Instead, it appears Edinson Volquez will be taking on a very tired Mets lineup. He is on regular rest and has struck out 28.3% of batters through two starts, settling down efficiently after a rough beginning against these same Mets last time out, but has allowed hard contact at a 45.2% clip so far.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.8% | 6.1% | Road | 22.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.2% | Home | 19.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 10.7% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 0.0% | 13.0% | Home | L14 Days | 0.0% | 20.0% | ||
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.7% | Home | 21.2% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 15.8% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 28.2% | 7.8% | Road | 25.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 6.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 33.1% | 3.4% | Home | 32.5% | 1.4% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.0% | Road | 20.3% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.6% | Road | 24.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 11.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.4% | Home | 22.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.2% | 8.1% | Home | 20.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.0% | 5.9% | Road | 18.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 16.8% | 7.5% | Road | 14.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 18.7% | 8.6% | Road | 17.2% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.4% | Home | 20.7% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.1% | Home | 23.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.9% | 6.6% | Home | 15.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.9% | 5.9% | Home | 24.6% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 4.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.9% | 8.6% | Road | 11.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 14.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.5% | Home | 23.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 13.6% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.9% | 7.6% | Road | 17.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.7% | 5.3% | Road | 28.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.0% | 4.2% | Home | 20.9% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 3.6% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 15.4% | 6.1% | Home | 17.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 7.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.0% | 6.1% | Home | 29.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.5% |
| Tommy Milone | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.0% | 6.6% | Road | 15.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 3.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 21.5% | 9.3% | Home | 20.6% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.3% | Road | 21.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.4% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.4% | 7.7% | Road | 16.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 31.8% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.1% | 5.4% | Road | 23.9% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 4.4% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 17.8% | 9.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 27.3% | 4.5% | RH | 21.8% | 5.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.8% | 5.2% | LH | 13.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.8% |
| Mets | Road | 21.6% | 9.5% | LH | 17.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.3% | 9.1% | RH | 16.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.1% | 6.3% | LH | 21.9% | 4.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.4% | 9.2% | LH | 21.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.1% |
| Indians | Home | 25.9% | 12.9% | LH | 16.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.0% |
| Angels | Road | 20.3% | 7.4% | LH | 21.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 22.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 26.7% | 13.3% | RH | 25.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.2% |
| Royals | Home | 23.6% | 8.5% | RH | 23.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.0% |
| Braves | Home | RH | 21.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.8% | ||
| Rockies | Road | 20.3% | 10.7% | RH | 20.6% | 10.9% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| Padres | Road | 24.1% | 6.9% | RH | 21.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.0% |
| Astros | Road | 19.5% | 9.8% | RH | 18.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.1% | 6.8% | RH | 14.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 16.4% | 7.8% | LH | 14.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.5% | 3.5% | RH | 22.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 13.6% | 10.0% | RH | 17.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 22.7% | 9.9% | RH | 22.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Rays | Road | 37.3% | 3.9% | RH | 28.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.0% | 2.7% | RH | 27.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.6% | 11.1% | RH | 23.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.9% |
| Reds | Home | 19.1% | 3.7% | LH | 12.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 18.7% | 16.0% | RH | 23.9% | 12.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Home | 18.4% | 11.8% | LH | 20.8% | 10.7% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.3% | 10.7% | LH | 13.5% | 21.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 13.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 17.8% | 13.8% | RH | 20.3% | 13.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.0% | 19.3% | RH | 20.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 2017 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | Road | 29.8% | 2.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 27.2% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 2017 | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | 32.9% | 12.9% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 36.8% | 0.0% | 15.7% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | -14.3% | Home | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | -14.3% | |||
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 2017 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | Home | 33.0% | 6.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 2017 | 22.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | Road | 32.2% | 21.3% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 2017 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 16.7% | Home | 27.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 25.2% | 15.1% | 1.3% | 2017 | 18.9% | 14.3% | -18.9% | Road | 31.7% | 19.4% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 14.3% | -18.9% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 2017 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 31.8% | Road | 33.7% | 5.9% | 22.8% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 31.8% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.2% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 2017 | 28.6% | 13.3% | 8.6% | Home | 38.3% | 12.1% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 13.3% | 8.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.6% | 15.7% | 9.1% | 2017 | 27.3% | 37.5% | 12.1% | Home | 32.8% | 14.3% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 37.5% | 12.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 2017 | 39.0% | 25.0% | 17.0% | Road | 31.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 25.0% | 17.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 28.5% | 15.2% | 9.2% | 2017 | 31.6% | 20.0% | 10.5% | Road | 26.9% | 18.2% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 20.0% | 10.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 2017 | 23.5% | 18.2% | 5.8% | Road | 34.3% | 17.6% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 18.2% | 5.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 2017 | 40.0% | 21.4% | 17.1% | Home | 24.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 21.4% | 17.1% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.9% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 2017 | 19.4% | 0.0% | -2.8% | Home | 33.3% | 10.0% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.9% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 2017 | 42.4% | 22.2% | 36.3% | Home | 28.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 22.2% | 36.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.1% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 2017 | 47.1% | 25.0% | 23.6% | Home | 25.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 25.0% | 23.6% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.8% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 2017 | 39.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% | Road | 34.1% | 10.0% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.3% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 2017 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | Home | 35.1% | 14.1% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 2017 | 35.7% | 0.0% | 21.4% | Road | 26.4% | 10.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 21.4% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.4% | 11.2% | 6.3% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 15.6% | Road | 28.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 15.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 2017 | 43.9% | 6.7% | 24.4% | Home | 32.4% | 6.4% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 43.9% | 6.7% | 24.4% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 23.9% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 2017 | 28.6% | 16.7% | 14.3% | Home | 25.0% | 11.8% | 0.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 16.7% | 14.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 2017 | 29.3% | 0.0% | 7.3% | Home | 29.9% | 12.5% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
| Tommy Milone | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 15.0% | 10.6% | 2017 | 28.0% | 0.0% | -8.0% | Road | 35.9% | 19.0% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 0.0% | -8.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 2017 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 12.5% | Home | 33.1% | 15.5% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 12.5% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 2017 | 46.9% | 16.7% | 21.9% | Road | 28.7% | 13.9% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 16.7% | 21.9% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 2017 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | Road | 34.6% | 12.8% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 28.8% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 2017 | 42.4% | 7.1% | 24.2% | Road | 25.5% | 16.5% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 7.1% | 24.2% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 31.8% | 14.8% | 15.3% | RH | 30.9% | 14.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 35.1% | 12.1% | 16.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.5% | 18.5% | 24.3% | RH | 28.9% | 16.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 38.5% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.4% | 12.0% | 11.9% | LH | 36.4% | 9.1% | 21.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 13.8% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Road | 36.2% | 21.5% | 21.6% | LH | 35.9% | 24.4% | 21.3% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 36.8% | 5.9% | 16.0% | RH | 42.7% | 3.9% | 24.6% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 39.7% | 4.3% | 23.3% | LH | 41.4% | 7.1% | 25.7% | L7Days | 35.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 30.5% | 15.8% | 9.4% | LH | 34.2% | 6.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 35.9% | 8.9% | 22.1% |
| Indians | Home | 31.4% | 11.5% | 15.7% | LH | 35.4% | 9.7% | 22.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 6.3% | 14.1% |
| Angels | Road | 26.7% | 7.1% | 12.4% | LH | 29.6% | 7.7% | 14.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.5% | 15.9% | 13.5% | RH | 36.6% | 18.7% | 23.2% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.4% | 15.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.6% | 8.7% | -1.6% | RH | 25.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Home | 23.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% | RH | 27.5% | 15.2% | 3.3% | L7Days | 29.3% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| Braves | Home | RH | 29.9% | 12.3% | 14.4% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.7% | 7.7% | |||
| Rockies | Road | 29.9% | 9.5% | 5.5% | RH | 27.1% | 12.1% | 5.5% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% |
| Padres | Road | 32.1% | 12.9% | 10.7% | RH | 30.4% | 15.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Road | 29.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | RH | 27.3% | 17.5% | 1.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 35.8% | 2.9% | 16.0% | RH | 30.1% | 5.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.2% | 10.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | LH | 16.7% | 0.0% | -8.3% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.7% | 4.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 27.2% | 11.8% | 11.1% | RH | 20.9% | 10.7% | 0.6% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.0% | 22.2% | 10.8% | RH | 32.5% | 14.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 35.1% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 29.5% | 16.1% | 8.4% | RH | 34.2% | 10.0% | 16.0% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Rays | Road | 32.2% | 14.3% | 13.6% | RH | 28.7% | 16.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 30.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 28.6% | 18.5% | 14.3% | RH | 34.1% | 20.7% | 15.0% | L7Days | 26.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.2% | 18.2% | 12.7% | RH | 24.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | L7Days | 31.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
| Reds | Home | 29.8% | 10.0% | 16.3% | LH | 33.3% | 27.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 31.3% | 16.0% | 20.9% | RH | 48.1% | 12.5% | 36.8% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| Giants | Home | 27.9% | 0.0% | 9.6% | LH | 33.3% | 16.1% | 16.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.5% | 0.0% | 1.4% | LH | 23.5% | 10.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 43.0% | 20.6% | 29.0% | RH | 36.3% | 17.0% | 18.5% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Twins | Home | 32.4% | 5.9% | 15.5% | RH | 39.6% | 10.5% | 26.2% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 29.2% | 12.4% | 2.35 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 2.35 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 21.4% | 9.9% | 2.16 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 2.16 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.0% | 5.9% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 5.9% | 0.00 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 31.6% | 11.8% | 2.68 | 31.6% | 11.8% | 2.68 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.98 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.98 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 28.0% | 8.7% | 3.22 | 28.0% | 8.7% | 3.22 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.38 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.38 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 7.4% | 5.2% | 1.42 | 7.4% | 5.2% | 1.42 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 21.2% | 17.1% | 1.24 | 21.2% | 17.1% | 1.24 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 26.1% | 11.5% | 2.27 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 2.27 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 12.0% | 7.5% | 1.60 | 12.0% | 7.5% | 1.60 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 12.5% | 5.1% | 2.45 | 12.5% | 5.1% | 2.45 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 15.6% | 4.4% | 3.55 | 15.6% | 4.4% | 3.55 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.6% | 13.3% | 1.70 | 22.6% | 13.3% | 1.70 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.0% | 8.7% | 2.30 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 2.30 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 25.0% | 10.6% | 2.36 | 25.0% | 10.6% | 2.36 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 25.0% | 10.8% | 2.31 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 2.31 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 18.2% | 16.4% | 1.11 | 18.2% | 16.4% | 1.11 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 28.6% | 14.5% | 1.97 | 28.6% | 14.5% | 1.97 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 33.3% | 15.3% | 2.18 | 33.3% | 15.3% | 2.18 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.19 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.19 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 27.9% | 10.5% | 2.66 | 27.9% | 10.5% | 2.66 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.11 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.11 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 13.3% | 8.8% | 1.51 | 13.3% | 8.8% | 1.51 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 30.4% | 8.8% | 3.45 | 30.4% | 8.8% | 3.45 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 22.9% | 13.6% | 1.68 | 22.9% | 13.6% | 1.68 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 22.7% | 5.0% | 4.54 | 22.7% | 5.0% | 4.54 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 22.2% | 10.1% | 2.20 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 2.20 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW |
Clayton Kershaw has a SwStr% on the bottom third of this board today. That won’t last. There may be several surprises coming our way this year, but most of this won’t last.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.5 | 2.88 | -1.62 | 2.69 | -1.81 | 1.65 | -2.85 | 2.85 | -1.65 | 4.5 | 2.88 | -1.62 | 2.69 | -1.81 | 1.65 | -2.85 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 1.29 | 4.33 | 3.04 | 4.34 | 3.05 | 2.56 | 1.27 | 3.64 | 2.35 | 1.29 | 4.33 | 3.04 | 4.34 | 3.05 | 2.56 | 1.27 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 10.8 | 8.68 | -2.12 | 11.2 | 0.4 | 8.38 | -2.42 | 6.82 | -3.98 | 10.8 | 8.78 | -2.02 | 11.2 | 0.4 | 8.38 | -2.42 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 1.8 | 3.85 | 2.05 | 3.63 | 1.83 | 4.98 | 3.18 | 4.68 | 2.88 | 1.8 | 3.85 | 2.05 | 3.63 | 1.83 | 4.98 | 3.18 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.45 | 3.46 | 1.01 | 3.42 | 0.97 | 2.03 | -0.42 | 3.23 | 0.78 | 2.45 | 3.47 | 1.02 | 3.42 | 0.97 | 2.03 | -0.42 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 3.46 | 2.41 | -1.05 | 2.75 | -0.71 | 4.83 | 1.37 | 2.10 | -1.36 | 3.46 | 2.41 | -1.05 | 2.75 | -0.71 | 4.83 | 1.37 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.64 | 3.24 | 2.6 | 3.48 | 2.84 | 3.63 | 2.99 | 3.72 | 3.08 | 0.64 | 3.24 | 2.6 | 3.48 | 2.84 | 3.63 | 2.99 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.26 | 5.95 | 1.69 | 5.5 | 1.24 | 3.77 | -0.49 | 4.42 | 0.16 | 4.26 | 5.96 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 1.24 | 3.77 | -0.49 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 2.08 | 4.15 | 2.07 | 4.48 | 2.4 | 4.68 | 2.6 | 3.69 | 1.61 | 2.08 | 4.15 | 2.07 | 4.48 | 2.4 | 4.68 | 2.6 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.09 | 2.45 | -1.64 | 1.94 | -2.15 | 4.35 | 0.26 | 3.73 | -0.36 | 4.09 | 2.45 | -1.64 | 1.94 | -2.15 | 4.35 | 0.26 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 6.55 | 4.6 | -1.95 | 4.42 | -2.13 | 6.26 | -0.29 | 4.11 | -2.44 | 6.55 | 4.6 | -1.95 | 4.42 | -2.13 | 6.26 | -0.29 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 5.4 | 4.25 | -1.15 | 4.55 | -0.85 | 5.58 | 0.18 | 5.4 | 4.25 | -1.15 | 4.55 | -0.85 | 5.58 | 0.18 | ||
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 8.1 | 4.19 | -3.91 | 4.5 | -3.6 | 5.38 | -2.72 | 4.21 | -3.89 | 8.1 | 4.19 | -3.91 | 4.5 | -3.6 | 5.38 | -2.72 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.5 | 3.94 | -0.56 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 5.73 | 1.23 | 3.28 | -1.22 | 4.5 | 3.94 | -0.56 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 5.73 | 1.23 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0 | 4.36 | 4.36 | 4.29 | 4.29 | 2.37 | 2.37 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 0 | 4.36 | 4.36 | 4.29 | 4.29 | 2.37 | 2.37 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 2.08 | 3 | 0.92 | 2.91 | 0.83 | 3.83 | 1.75 | 4.13 | 2.05 | 2.08 | 3 | 0.92 | 2.91 | 0.83 | 3.83 | 1.75 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 6 | 3.14 | -2.86 | 3.57 | -2.43 | 5.82 | -0.18 | 3.01 | -2.99 | 6 | 3.14 | -2.86 | 3.57 | -2.43 | 5.82 | -0.18 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 2.38 | 4.81 | 2.43 | 4.31 | 1.93 | 4.22 | 1.84 | 4.31 | 1.93 | 2.38 | 4.81 | 2.43 | 4.31 | 1.93 | 4.22 | 1.84 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 11.74 | 5.03 | -6.71 | 6.07 | -5.67 | 7.42 | -4.32 | 3.20 | -8.54 | 11.74 | 5.05 | -6.69 | 6.07 | -5.67 | 7.42 | -4.32 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 1.5 | 2.66 | 1.16 | 2.79 | 1.29 | 1.48 | -0.02 | 5.20 | 3.70 | 1.5 | 2.66 | 1.16 | 2.79 | 1.29 | 1.48 | -0.02 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.69 | 1.3 | 0.61 | 1.24 | 0.55 | 0.52 | -0.17 | 2.67 | 1.98 | 0.69 | 1.3 | 0.61 | 1.24 | 0.55 | 0.52 | -0.17 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.38 | 3.19 | -1.19 | 3.26 | -1.12 | 2.42 | -1.96 | 3.10 | -1.28 | 4.38 | 3.2 | -1.18 | 3.26 | -1.12 | 2.42 | -1.96 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 2.53 | 3.15 | 0.62 | 3.34 | 0.81 | 4.01 | 1.48 | 4.44 | 1.91 | 2.53 | 3.16 | 0.63 | 3.34 | 0.81 | 4.01 | 1.48 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.21 | 3.46 | 0.25 | 3.4 | 0.19 | 2.06 | -1.15 | 2.98 | -0.23 | 3.21 | 3.46 | 0.25 | 3.4 | 0.19 | 2.06 | -1.15 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 9 | 4.31 | -4.69 | 4.24 | -4.76 | 2.15 | -6.85 | 6.26 | -2.74 | 9 | 4.31 | -4.69 | 4.24 | -4.76 | 2.15 | -6.85 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 6.35 | 2.03 | -4.32 | 1.89 | -4.46 | 2.81 | -3.54 | 4.12 | -2.23 | 6.35 | 2.06 | -4.29 | 1.89 | -4.46 | 2.81 | -3.54 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 8.44 | 4.09 | -4.35 | 4.09 | -4.35 | 4.76 | -3.68 | 4.16 | -4.28 | 8.44 | 4.1 | -4.34 | 4.09 | -4.35 | 4.76 | -3.68 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6.12 | 6.12 | 5.18 | 5.18 | 4.59 | 4.59 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6.12 | 6.12 | 5.18 | 5.18 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 2.31 | 3.34 | 1.03 | 3.66 | 1.35 | 2.9 | 0.59 | 3.41 | 1.10 | 2.31 | 3.35 | 1.04 | 3.66 | 1.35 | 2.9 | 0.59 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW |
We are still not yet at a point where any of this means much, but may began to in about a week’s time when some of these guys are ready for their fourth start.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.319 | 0.467 | 0.148 | 53.3% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 76.9% | 87.6 | 4.30% | 2.50% | 282 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.301 | 0.211 | -0.09 | 31.6% | 0.263 | 0.0% | 83.3% | 90.7 | 6.20% | 3.90% | 500 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.216 | 0.286 | 0.07 | 42.9% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 76.9% | ||||
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.263 | 0.000 | -0.263 | 40.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 81.5% | 88.5 | 7.30% | 3.90% | 315 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.236 | 0.293 | 0.057 | 52.5% | 0.15 | 15.4% | 83.9% | 90.7 | 8.40% | 4.80% | 488 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.261 | 0.188 | -0.073 | 45.7% | 0.086 | 18.8% | 91.9% | 87.3 | 5.10% | 2.90% | 316 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.256 | 0.083 | -0.173 | 73.5% | 0.059 | 0.0% | 90.5% | 89 | 6.90% | 4.30% | 452 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.270 | 0.318 | 0.048 | 45.5% | 0.227 | 14.3% | 100.0% | 90.4 | 7.70% | 5.00% | 195 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.296 | 0.273 | -0.023 | 42.9% | 0.143 | 13.3% | 73.6% | 90.2 | 8.50% | 5.10% | 436 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.326 | 0.387 | 0.061 | 40.6% | 0.344 | 12.5% | 89.1% | 89 | 5.60% | 3.50% | 411 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.317 | 0.316 | -0.001 | 50.0% | 0.184 | 0.0% | 88.3% | 88.5 | 3.40% | 2.00% | 298 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.262 | 0.333 | 0.071 | 52.6% | 0.211 | 0.0% | 88.5% | 88.6 | 4.60% | 3.00% | 216 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.228 | 0.281 | 0.053 | 52.9% | 0.147 | 0.0% | 91.7% | 89.7 | 5.10% | 3.20% | 395 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.301 | 0.250 | -0.051 | 42.9% | 0.171 | 14.3% | 80.9% | 88.4 | 5.20% | 3.20% | 540 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.276 | 0.278 | 0.002 | 23.5% | 0.294 | 0.0% | 87.0% | 89.6 | 7.10% | 4.40% | 464 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.267 | 0.194 | -0.073 | 54.5% | 0.182 | 0.0% | 91.5% | 90 | 5.90% | 4.20% | 557 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.246 | 0.200 | -0.046 | 43.8% | 0.063 | 12.5% | 83.3% | 87.2 | 3.80% | 2.10% | 417 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.272 | 0.344 | 0.072 | 39.4% | 0.333 | 22.2% | 94.6% | 90.1 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 598 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.303 | 0.462 | 0.159 | 40.7% | 0.222 | 20.0% | 76.5% | 89.7 | 4.40% | 2.90% | 526 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.314 | 0.214 | -0.1 | 50.0% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 82.8% | 88.5 | 6.20% | 4.00% | 390 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.290 | 0.313 | 0.023 | 64.5% | 0.161 | 0.0% | 94.0% | 87.9 | 3.30% | 1.90% | 422 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.295 | 0.400 | 0.105 | 41.5% | 0.22 | 20.0% | 84.0% | 88.9 | 6.70% | 4.30% | 563 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.253 | 0.346 | 0.093 | 29.6% | 0.259 | 0.0% | 85.3% | 86 | 6.40% | 4.10% | 219 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.321 | 0.268 | -0.053 | 53.7% | 0.171 | 8.3% | 88.7% | 88.2 | 5.80% | 3.20% | 327 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 0.292 | 0.480 | 0.188 | 32.0% | 0.36 | 50.0% | 88.6% | 87.4 | 8.60% | 6.10% | 220 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.332 | 0.400 | 0.068 | 43.8% | 0.25 | 20.0% | 88.5% | 90.4 | 6.70% | 3.90% | 480 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.302 | 0.367 | 0.065 | 29.0% | 0.323 | 25.0% | 79.4% | 85.1 | 3.20% | 2.10% | 309 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.335 | 0.100 | -0.235 | 30.0% | 0.4 | 0.0% | 92.3% | 89.7 | 7.60% | 4.90% | 458 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.297 | 0.250 | -0.047 | 51.5% | 0.061 | 14.3% | 86.9% | 88.7 | 8.40% | 5.10% | 406 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.234 |
I predict that Dallas Keuchel will have a season BABIP above .100 by the end of the night.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) hopefully sent the DFS world into a panic with his rather pedestrian effort in Colorado. Not a chance! The good news is that the cost is still not over-whelming in comparison to his ability and perhaps there will be a larger than normal fade contingent with so many strong, cheaper options on the board tonight.
Noah Syndergaard (2) has upside not significantly less than Kershaw, one of few major league pitchers you can say that about. He’s the clear second tier by himself on FanDuel (in terms of price), costing less than Cueto on DraftKings and may get a few more pitches tonight after yesterday’s marathon. In terms of value beyond cost, I have these two pitching Gods virtually even today.
Value Tier Two
Dallas Keuchel (3) has started off dominantly and won’t continue at these contact paces all season, but he’s pitching under some favorable circumstances tonight and has upside in his strikeout rate beyond what’s it has been in his first two starts.
Value Tier Three
Johnny Cueto (4) is in a nice spot to bounce back from a lackluster first couple of starts (although his second was better than his first) at home against the Rockies. The second highest price tag on DraftKings may push more player to Syndergaard, something it’s tough to argue with. He’s $2.6K less on FanDuel, where you could certainly bump him up a tier.
Chris Archer has blowup potential, but more upside than a guy like Sanchez for the same cost in a similar type spot. He’s pitched well so far and is likely to be under-owned on a talent rich board due to the fear of facing the Red Sox in Boston.
Tyler Anderson has been a completely different pitcher through two starts so far and we want to be cautious of that, yet not completely write off last year’s success, especially when he moves from Colorado to San Francisco tonight. The park shift is just so hard to ignore if we believe the 2016 version might still be in there somewhere.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Rick Porcello is not likely to miss 16 bats in many of his starts this season and the cost is still probably based too much on his 20+ Wins from last season, but by God do the Rays swing and miss a TON.
Danny Duffy is pitching with reduced velocity against the offense with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors last year, while striking out only three batters himself in his last start. Hopefully, that will be the prevailing line of thought among players tonight because the SwStr% tells us something much different at a reasonable $9K cost.
Kendall Graveman will get continued support as long as he continues to miss bats at a rate previously not shown, but even with the velocity spike, throwing sinkers more than 90% of the time may not keep him DFS relevant for a long time, especially with the cost beginning to increase.
Julio Teheran may be less successful in the new park, if it doesn’t play as fly ball friendly as the previous confines, but he should be okay against the Padres initially.
Adalberto Mejia probably shouldn’t be counted on too much, but he’s not entirely bereft of ability at a very low cost, when you’ll probably be in need of a cheap SP2 on DraftKings.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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