Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, August 18th
(Takes a quick glance at pulled stats for Friday’s scheduled starters…) Yes, this is good. This is fine. We have Scherzer and Kluber and even Keuchel looked better last time out. Hill is in Detroit, but there’s Godley on the road. I like that guy! We get to end the work week (not really, I’ll be here tomorrow) with its best slate (in terms of quality pitching at least).
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.8 | 4.86 | 5.39 | 48.1% | 1.11 | 4.6 | 4.72 | CHW | 92 | 88 | 116 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 2 | 4.4 | 5.42 | 36.9% | 1.02 | BAL | 103 | 96 | 141 | ||
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | -0.5 | 4.09 | 5.22 | 47.5% | 0.96 | 4.17 | 4.41 | SEA | 94 | 102 | 124 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -1.5 | 3.85 | 6.24 | 54.1% | 0.97 | 3.8 | 3.19 | PIT | 91 | 86 | 70 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | -1.6 | 5.99 | 4.05 | 42.6% | 0.91 | 5.73 | 5.61 | MIA | 99 | 96 | 128 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.3 | 3.11 | 6.71 | 44.2% | 1.06 | 3.16 | 2.42 | KAN | 90 | 92 | 132 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -5.5 | 3.54 | 6.44 | 59.0% | 0.94 | 3.19 | 5.05 | OAK | 88 | 87 | 123 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.4 | 3.87 | 5.59 | 44.3% | 1.13 | 3.57 | 3.81 | NYY | 99 | 87 | 97 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 7.4 | 4.06 | 5.3 | 49.1% | 0.96 | 4.38 | 5.71 | TAM | 101 | 102 | 62 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -0.2 | 4.36 | 6.32 | 42.3% | 1.04 | 4.45 | 3.94 | ARI | 82 | 100 | 95 |
| German Marquez | COL | -3.9 | 4.26 | 5.57 | 44.0% | 1.39 | 3.95 | 5.21 | MIL | 94 | 93 | 144 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 7.2 | 4.23 | 5.75 | 35.3% | 1.06 | 4.91 | 4.47 | CLE | 101 | 103 | 112 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -1.9 | 4.05 | 5.95 | 43.3% | 0.96 | 4.38 | 4.65 | CHC | 105 | 107 | 137 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.2 | 3.69 | 6.31 | 52.2% | 0.96 | 3.64 | 4.13 | TOR | 93 | 90 | 84 |
| James Shields | CHW | -0.1 | 5.01 | 5.56 | 40.1% | 1.11 | 5.57 | 3.26 | TEX | 110 | 101 | 153 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | -5.1 | 4.53 | 5.69 | 38.1% | 1.02 | 4.34 | 3.64 | ANA | 83 | 95 | 73 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 2.4 | 4.22 | 5.5 | 41.1% | 1.13 | 4.61 | 3.59 | BOS | 94 | 100 | 106 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1.7 | 4.73 | 5.7 | 39.3% | 0.98 | 5.23 | 6.61 | LOS | 102 | 109 | 110 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.9 | 5.31 | 5.47 | 46.1% | 0.91 | 4.49 | 6.91 | NYM | 89 | 95 | 84 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.4 | 4.15 | 5.69 | 60.2% | 0.91 | 4.17 | 5.06 | WAS | 99 | 104 | 84 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -1.6 | 4.92 | 5.27 | 48.1% | 1.39 | 4.73 | 6.3 | COL | 90 | 80 | 102 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -3 | 4.48 | 5.87 | 38.6% | 0.93 | 4.47 | 2.86 | PHI | 76 | 83 | 75 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1 | 2.85 | 6.75 | 35.3% | 0.91 | 3.47 | 2.65 | SDG | 89 | 88 | 92 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -1.8 | 4.86 | 6.02 | 44.6% | 1 | 4.83 | 4.92 | CIN | 94 | 99 | 118 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2.8 | 3.39 | 5.56 | 0.432 | 0.98 | 3.25 | 2.91 | DET | 114 | 123 | 119 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 7.3 | 5.01 | 4.78 | 0.483 | 1 | 4.02 | 4.58 | ATL | 86 | 86 | 90 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -11.2 | 4.18 | 5.63 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 4.14 | 7.58 | HOU | 123 | 120 | 90 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -2.4 | 4.54 | 5.47 | 0.491 | 0.97 | 4.42 | 4.52 | STL | 95 | 99 | 134 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 2.2 | 5.21 | 5.82 | 0.395 | 0.93 | 5.57 | 4.76 | SFO | 79 | 81 | 76 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5.4 | 3.96 | 5.73 | 0.533 | 1.04 | 3.3 | 4.14 | MIN | 100 | 98 | 126 |
Carlos Martinez struggled through four straight starts of five strikeouts or less, but has struck out at least seven in each of his last four with a 59.1 GB% and 7.5 Hard-Soft%, though his .333 BABIP and 21.1 HR/FB over this span has his ERA above four and a half. While the Pirates may present an issue from a strikeout standpoint (17.8% at home, 18.5% vs RHP), they present opportunity in a lineup that is mostly right-handed in a park that crushes RH power (9.2 HR/FB at home, 10.0 HR/FB vs RHP, 4.7 HR/FB last seven days). They have an 88 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. There’s a good chance this works out well for him from a run suppression standpoint.
Corey Kluber failed to reach double digit strikeouts for the first time the break last time out with a mere nine in Tampa Bay of all places. He’s gone at least seven innings in 10 of his last 12 with at least eight strikeouts in 14 straight and 17 of 18. He has double digit strikeouts in 12 of his last 16. His 39.3 K% and 18.3 SwStr% over the last month are tops on the board. He has allowed a HR in six straight starts, encompassing seven of his 15 this year, but that streak could come to an end in Kansas City. It’s a positive run environment and the Royals have been hitting well, so it’s not necessarily a traditionally favorable spot, but nobody should be really worried.
Dallas Keuchel pitched 6.2 innings of one run ball with seven strikeouts in Texas last time out, just what everyone was waiting for. Ground balls have been there since his return (56.5%), but his hard contact rate has been above 33% in three of four starts and this was his first time with more than three strikeouts, though he’s now had a double digit SwStr% in three of four starts. For the season, he has a 64.5 GB% and -2.3 Hard-Soft% with a 14.3 K-BB%. The A’s strike out a quarter of the time on the road and vs LHP. They have just a 10.4 HR/FB vs LHP and 20.9 K-BB% over the last week.
Drew Pomeranz has the sixth highest strikeout rate on the board (24.4%), though his pedestrian game log probably wouldn’t lead you to that conclusion immediately. He just continually fires off quality starts if anything sensationalistic. Contact has been about average and he’s in an unlikely reasonable spot at home against the Yankees, where the park is the real problem. The Yankees have struggled against LHP (23.5 K%, 7.0 Hard-Soft%). Despite just coming off a four game sweep of the Mets, they have just a 6.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Max Scherzer has returned from a neck issue to throw seven innings of two run ball in two straight with 19 strikeouts. He’s in San Diego tonight. Are more numbers even necessary?
Rich Hill sits behind only Scherzer and Kluber in strikeout rate today and has at least eight strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. His 83.6 mph aEV is lowest on the board and his 28.6% 95+ mph EV is second. That’s generally enough. His issues are workload and matchup tonight. He threw 101 pitches in his last start, his second above 100 this year. That may actually work against him tonight, but who knows. A good guess would be 90 to 95. The Tigers don’t strike out much against LHP (18.4%) and hammer them (23.4 Hard-Soft%), especially at home (31.5 Hard-Soft%). Sure, that takes a hit with their hardest hitter gone, but there are still some hard hitting RH bats.
Zack Godley has the third highest SwStr% on the board, which he combines with a 55.7 GB%. He has a 3.4 Hard-Soft% on the road. While Minnesota is not really a favorable matchup here, most spots outside of Arizona are going to be an upgrade. The Twins are a poor offense against ground ball pitchers (84 sOPS+) and have an 18.8 K-BB% over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.233 – 80.4% – 13.3) does have the fourth highest SwStr rate (14%) on the board over the last month and he is facing a high strikeout offense (24.4% on the road, 23.6% vs RHP), so while I’m always going to think he’s over-priced, this may be as close as he’ll come to making our list.
R.A. Dickey (.276 – 75.7% – 13.6) has an 11.6% unearned run rate, though nothing else is really out of line. He’s been generating fewer strikeouts recently (six of his last 50 batters with a 6.2 SwStr%). There is some value in a guy who has given you seven innings in seven of his last 12 starts though. His 28% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board too. Thirteen of his 19 HRs have come at home though.
Andrew Cashner (.274 – 76.9% – 7.9) has a 3.2 K-BB% and is somehow suppressing HRs in Texas at about half the league rate. His ground ball rate is 50%, which helps with the barrels (3.5% of BBEs), but his average exit velocity and hard hit rate are both average. This may be the flukiest season in the majors, beating all of his estimators by something close to two runs. The White Sox are actually the seventh best offense vs ground ball pitchers (112 sOPS+).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Erasmo Ramirez struck out five of 16 batters in his first start for Seattle, but just three of his last 45 with just a 4.9 SwStr% last time out, the only of the three starts in which he did not allow multiple HRs. His 88.2 mph aEV is not ideal and he’s facing an offense with some power, but just a 6.9 HR/FB over the last week. The Rays are also one of five offense that strike out around a quarter of the time in their home/road and LH/RH splits today. I don’t hate him as an SP2.
Austin Pruitt has a 14.0 K-BB% through four starts since being inserted into the rotation, but has struck out just 11 of his last 72 batters with a SwStr rate below 6% in each of his last three starts. His 35.7 Hard% is a bit high, but 50.7% of his contact has been on the ground. His .242 BABIP and 82.5 LOB% over these four starts have held his ERA down, but there may be some merit in his use as an SP2 at a low price in a somewhat neutral spot, hosting the Mariners (87 sOPS+ vs ground ball pitchers = 23rd).
Jordan Montgomery does have a strength in his ability to miss bats, but has completed six innings just twice in his last eight starts and in none of his last three. The Red Sox have a 17.3 K% vs LHP.
Luis Perdomo has struck out more than four in just three of his last 15 starts, though his SwStr% has remained viable and above 9% in three straight starts. His 61.7 GB% is less than a point among the top qualified pitcher (Marcus Stroman), but has been below 40% three of his last six starts (two of his last three). He’d only been below 50% once previously. The issue has been an inability to generate weak ground balls, driving his BABIP up well above .300 despite a low line drive rate.
Matt Moore has one of the top matchups on the board. He’s even struck out six or more in four of his last five starts with a season high nine last time out in Washington, but did allow a 41.2% hard hit rate. His Statcast numbers are atrocious, though in a six start stretch leading into his last outing, he had a hard hit rate of 22.1%. I think I could consider him in an SP2 role for $5K on DraftKings.
Andrew Heaney returns from Tommy John surgery after three starts at AA (33.3 K-BB%) and three starts at AAA (14.3 K-BB%). He has an 11.9 K-BB% through 141 major league innings. He’s been a bit of a fly ball pitcher (40 GB%) with about one-third of his contact hard hit (33.4%). That’s not ideal in Baltimore (17.0 K-BB% vs LHP, 16.3 HR/FB at home), one of the hotter offenses in the league over the last week.
Trevor Williams has done a decent job of generating weak contact (85 mph aEV, 28.6% 95+ mph EV) in a favorable park, but there’s just not enough bat missing in his game in a somewhat neutral spot.
German Marquez is in a high strikeout spot against the Brewers, but also the worst one on the board at Coors and it’s not even particularly close. The Brewers have a 31.0 HR/FB over the last week and 19.0 HR/FB vs RHP (17.2 HR/FB on the road). After three straight starts with at least nine strikeouts, he’s struck out just 12 of his last 72 batters.
Ian Kennedy has just a 7.3 SwStr% over the last month. His 89.5 mph aEV and 10.2% Barrels/BBE are both highest on the board. Cleveland has a 113 sOPS+ (third) against fly ball pitchers.
Sean Manaea is in Houston, but WTF happened here? He came out of the break with his highest velocity game of the season (93.4 mph), striking out eight, but has been steadily dropping ever since, to his lowest mark of the season (90.3 mph) last time out.
James Shields has been missing some bats over the last month, but may be in the second toughest spot on the board. The Rangers have a 27.3 Hard-Soft% over the last month.
Zack Eflin is still below Garza in Colorado and Shields in Texas in a great matchup in San Francisco. That’s what a 12.9 K% will do to expectations.
Chris Flexen has nearly quadrupled his AA walk rate (3.9%) through four starts (14.6%). His SwStr% is average and his contact rates strong so far. There may still be something here.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.4% | 10.0% | Home | 17.3% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 18.4% | 5.3% | Home | 18.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.5% | Road | 24.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 1.8% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 15.9% | 14.6% | Home | 16.7% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 30.0% | 6.3% | Road | 28.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 3.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.2% | 6.7% | Home | 21.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 11.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.5% | 8.7% | Home | 26.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 5.4% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 17.8% | 5.6% | Road | 15.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.5% | Home | 19.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.4% | Home | 20.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.0% | 8.4% | Home | 22.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.0% | 7.1% | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 14.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.6% | 7.9% | Home | 26.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.9% | 10.4% | Road | 14.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 4.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.1% | Home | 19.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 6.3% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.8% | 7.5% | Road | 20.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 7.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 16.2% | 6.2% | Home | 14.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 6.4% | 8.5% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 10.3% | 6.8% | Road | 12.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 16.0% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.5% | 7.7% | Home | 15.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.3% | 8.4% | Road | 14.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.3% | Home | 21.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 1.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 33.1% | 6.0% | Road | 32.3% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 5.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 16.1% | 8.1% | Home | 16.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 8.2% | Road | 32.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 8.5% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 18.8% | 11.1% | Road | 22.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 3.8% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.3% | 7.1% | Road | 20.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 12.0% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.5% | 7.5% | Home | 17.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 12.1% | 5.1% | Road | 9.7% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 2.0% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.5% | Road | 23.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 9.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 6.0% | RH | 22.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.7% | 7.2% | LH | 23.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 5.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.8% | 7.2% | RH | 20.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 9.0% | RH | 18.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.4% | 6.5% | RH | 20.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 14.2% | 8.8% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 6.7% | RH | 20.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.0% | 9.2% | LH | 24.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.2% | 5.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.3% | 9.1% | LH | 23.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.8% |
| Rays | Home | 25.9% | 9.4% | RH | 24.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.6% | RH | 23.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 30.7% | 10.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.2% | 8.5% | RH | 25.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Road | 18.6% | 9.5% | RH | 19.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.8% | 10.0% | LH | 21.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.0% | 9.4% | RH | 20.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 7.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.0% | 9.7% | RH | 23.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.5% | 13.6% |
| Angels | Road | 20.6% | 8.7% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.2% | 10.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.5% | 9.3% | LH | 17.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 10.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.5% | 10.8% | RH | 22.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 15.3% | 12.0% |
| Mets | Home | 20.5% | 8.4% | LH | 24.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 29.0% | 8.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.4% | 8.2% | RH | 22.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 11.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.4% | LH | 20.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.3% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.4% | RH | 25.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.2% |
| Reds | Road | 20.2% | 8.6% | RH | 20.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 14.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 9.0% | LH | 18.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 7.0% | RH | 19.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.0% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 7.8% | LH | 17.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 8.9% | RH | 21.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 18.9% | 7.2% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 8.3% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 10.0% | RH | 22.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 25.1% | 6.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 33.1% | 11.3% | 16.8% | 2017 | 30.0% | 7.9% | 11.5% | Home | 32.6% | 12.3% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 12.5% | 19.0% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Years | 30.6% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 33.2% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 2017 | 33.2% | 10.5% | 16.3% | Home | 32.9% | 3.7% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 6.7% | 21.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 2017 | 33.0% | 15.9% | 14.3% | Road | 33.8% | 11.1% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 32.7% | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2017 | 32.7% | 20.0% | 9.1% | Home | 43.8% | 33.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 16.7% | 3.2% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2017 | 30.9% | 14.3% | 8.7% | Road | 31.1% | 12.6% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 15.0% | 9.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 28.0% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 2017 | 25.0% | 18.9% | -2.3% | Home | 26.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 18.2% | 13.1% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 2017 | 31.9% | 12.5% | 9.5% | Home | 32.7% | 15.8% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 14.3% | 2.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.2% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 2017 | 40.5% | 16.5% | 25.2% | Road | 35.8% | 23.6% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 18.8% | 9.7% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 29.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 2017 | 29.9% | 13.3% | 8.8% | Home | 29.1% | 13.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 9.1% | 22.9% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.2% | 11.0% | 18.7% | 2017 | 35.1% | 10.3% | 19.2% | Home | 31.7% | 14.0% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.5% | 13.1% | 21.4% | 2017 | 39.4% | 13.9% | 26.6% | Home | 41.5% | 12.1% | 26.3% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 21.4% | 22.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.0% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 2017 | 28.5% | 15.2% | 7.8% | Road | 28.5% | 12.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 0.0% | -3.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.4% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 2017 | 27.9% | 13.6% | 7.3% | Home | 24.0% | 8.8% | 0.8% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 7.1% | 13.5% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.7% | 17.7% | 17.8% | 2017 | 35.6% | 17.3% | 18.9% | Road | 34.8% | 16.9% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 21.4% | 35.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 2017 | 31.1% | 12.9% | 12.5% | Home | 24.9% | 13.0% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 7.1% | 18.7% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 2017 | 27.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | Road | 24.5% | 12.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 48.0% | 12.5% | 32.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 2017 | 38.3% | 14.4% | 24.4% | Home | 37.5% | 13.9% | 22.7% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 17.6% | 25.7% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 2017 | 29.8% | 21.7% | 20.2% | Road | 33.3% | 17.9% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 0.0% | 36.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.5% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 2017 | 32.7% | 16.9% | 15.7% | Home | 33.7% | 16.1% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.5% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 2017 | 33.7% | 12.4% | 16.4% | Road | 31.6% | 11.5% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 25.0% | 20.4% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 2017 | 35.1% | 12.3% | 19.5% | Home | 31.4% | 10.8% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 27.3% | 22.2% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.6% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2017 | 28.5% | 11.9% | 8.7% | Road | 32.0% | 12.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 14.3% | 9.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.7% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2017 | 26.0% | 13.6% | 2.3% | Home | 27.7% | 15.9% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2017 | 30.5% | 12.9% | 7.8% | Road | 26.0% | 8.6% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 44.4% | 30.8% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 34.7% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 2017 | 34.7% | 12.8% | 15.3% | Road | 27.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 39.7% | 11.8% | 22.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.8% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 2017 | 34.2% | 11.0% | 18.7% | Road | 34.5% | 14.7% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 47.6% | 22.2% | 42.8% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.6% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 2017 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 4.5% | Home | 32.5% | 4.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.6% | 15.4% | 16.9% | 2017 | 34.1% | 17.5% | 18.2% | Road | 37.5% | 11.8% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 14.3% | 14.6% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.6% | 15.1% | 11.0% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.8% | 7.2% | Road | 24.1% | 11.9% | -1.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 16.7% | 5.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 31.2% | 14.3% | 13.3% | RH | 30.5% | 13.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 34.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.9% | 16.3% | 10.7% | LH | 34.2% | 12.9% | 15.7% | L7Days | 36.6% | 12.5% | 20.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.5% | 11.6% | 13.5% | RH | 30.3% | 12.5% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 11.7% | 14.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | RH | 29.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 31.1% | 4.7% | 12.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.7% | 14.5% | 9.6% | RH | 31.6% | 14.9% | 11.7% | L7Days | 33.5% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| Royals | Home | 30.4% | 10.9% | 10.1% | RH | 31.6% | 12.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 35.2% | 18.0% | 22.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.7% | 12.2% | 16.3% | LH | 31.9% | 10.4% | 13.4% | L7Days | 30.9% | 16.9% | 14.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.7% | 11.9% | 11.8% | LH | 28.5% | 12.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 27.6% | 15.7% | 6.0% |
| Rays | Home | 36.7% | 14.9% | 18.6% | RH | 34.7% | 16.5% | 16.4% | L7Days | 30.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.9% | 13.9% | 11.0% | RH | 35.1% | 15.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 32.2% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.9% | 17.2% | 12.7% | RH | 34.1% | 19.0% | 15.5% | L7Days | 40.2% | 31.0% | 24.6% |
| Indians | Road | 34.8% | 12.3% | 18.4% | RH | 33.8% | 12.3% | 16.8% | L7Days | 36.4% | 16.0% | 20.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 32.2% | 17.7% | 14.9% | LH | 29.5% | 18.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 35.5% | 24.2% | 18.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.1% | 14.8% | 11.5% | RH | 30.4% | 14.8% | 10.5% | L7Days | 30.4% | 15.2% | 14.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.8% | 18.1% | 19.2% | RH | 34.8% | 18.0% | 16.4% | L7Days | 39.2% | 22.8% | 27.3% |
| Angels | Road | 32.4% | 11.3% | 13.0% | RH | 31.1% | 13.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 31.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.9% | 10.3% | 17.4% | LH | 31.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 35.2% | 18.4% | 18.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.6% | 15.3% | 18.8% | RH | 36.0% | 15.3% | 20.6% | L7Days | 36.4% | 11.3% | 20.1% |
| Mets | Home | 33.4% | 11.6% | 14.4% | LH | 35.6% | 14.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 30.4% | 19.7% | 10.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.2% | 15.5% | 13.0% | RH | 31.8% | 15.0% | 14.9% | L7Days | 33.6% | 15.7% | 19.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.8% | 16.7% | 13.7% | RH | 30.3% | 13.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.6% | 15.8% | 10.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | LH | 28.7% | 14.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 28.1% | 11.9% | 8.6% |
| Padres | Home | 29.3% | 12.5% | 6.9% | RH | 29.8% | 14.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 33.5% | 15.0% | 10.3% |
| Reds | Road | 30.4% | 14.1% | 10.5% | RH | 29.7% | 14.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 30.4% | 19.0% | 6.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 45.1% | 13.3% | 31.5% | LH | 39.1% | 17.4% | 23.4% | L7Days | 37.8% | 13.6% | 25.0% |
| Braves | Home | 29.3% | 11.8% | 9.7% | RH | 30.9% | 11.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 33.8% | 13.1% | 16.1% |
| Astros | Home | 30.8% | 15.5% | 13.1% | LH | 29.5% | 14.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 32.3% | 7.9% | 15.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.0% | 13.1% | 14.5% | RH | 31.5% | 12.8% | 12.8% | L7Days | 36.9% | 10.6% | 20.6% |
| Giants | Home | 25.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | RH | 28.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 29.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 12.0% | 17.1% | RH | 33.3% | 12.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 34.0% | 16.4% | 23.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 12.4% | 5.8% | 2.14 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 2.82 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | ||||||
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 18.4% | 9.0% | 2.04 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 2.69 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.9% | 10.6% | 2.44 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.33 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 15.9% | 9.7% | 1.64 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 1.64 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 35.8% | 16.5% | 2.17 | 39.3% | 18.3% | 2.15 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.14 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 1.53 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.32 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 18.4% | 10.2% | 1.80 | 15.6% | 10.5% | 1.49 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.5% | 10.2% | 1.91 | 24.0% | 14.0% | 1.71 |
| German Marquez | COL | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.33 | 25.4% | 11.7% | 2.17 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.9% | 8.9% | 2.35 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 2.62 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 22.2% | 9.6% | 2.31 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 2.23 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 23.0% | 9.2% | 2.50 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 2.53 |
| James Shields | CHW | 18.4% | 9.3% | 1.98 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 2.04 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 14.8% | 8.5% | 1.74 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.45 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.8% | 12.9% | 1.77 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.31 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 15.1% | 8.1% | 1.86 | 9.6% | 6.2% | 1.55 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.32 | 8.0% | 2.3% | 3.48 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 | 14.2% | 9.0% | 1.58 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 15.8% | 8.0% | 1.98 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.15 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 19.5% | 8.9% | 2.19 | 25.8% | 9.7% | 2.66 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.7% | 15.9% | 2.25 | 35.6% | 14.4% | 2.47 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 15.9% | 8.6% | 1.85 | 17.8% | 10.4% | 1.71 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 28.8% | 11.0% | 2.62 | 29.5% | 10.9% | 2.71 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 18.8% | 8.4% | 2.24 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.09 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 21.8% | 12.3% | 1.77 | 11.0% | 8.4% | 1.31 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 17.5% | 8.2% | 2.13 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 2.55 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 12.9% | 7.5% | 1.72 | 16.0% | 9.3% | 1.72 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 25.8% | 14.4% | 1.79 | 27.6% | 14.1% | 1.96 |
A lot of monthly outliers, but no real season long ones.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.32 | 5.45 | 2.13 | 5.18 | 1.86 | 4.42 | 1.1 | 5.16 | 1.84 | 2.42 | 4.76 | 2.34 | 4.87 | 2.45 | 3.95 | 1.53 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | ||||||||||||||||
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 5.07 | 4.09 | -0.98 | 4.22 | -0.85 | 3.79 | -1.28 | 4.33 | -0.74 | 3.47 | 4.29 | 0.82 | 4.46 | 0.99 | 4.47 | 1 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.56 | 3.82 | 0.26 | 3.6 | 0.04 | 3.83 | 0.27 | 3.31 | -0.25 | 4.35 | 3.52 | -0.83 | 3.27 | -1.08 | 4.04 | -0.31 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 7.02 | 5.98 | -1.04 | 6.24 | -0.78 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 7.54 | 0.52 | 7.02 | 5.99 | -1.03 | 6.24 | -0.78 | 7.22 | 0.2 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.71 | 2.6 | -0.11 | 2.44 | -0.27 | 2.49 | -0.22 | 2.24 | -0.47 | 2.31 | 2.19 | -0.12 | 2.11 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 0.19 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.77 | 3.63 | 0.86 | 3.33 | 0.56 | 3.71 | 0.94 | 2.61 | -0.16 | 7.23 | 5.26 | -1.97 | 5.13 | -2.1 | 6.19 | -1.04 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.39 | 4.11 | 0.72 | 3.88 | 0.49 | 3.73 | 0.34 | 3.86 | 0.47 | 2.3 | 4.66 | 2.36 | 4.41 | 2.11 | 4 | 1.7 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 4.73 | 4.17 | -0.56 | 4.22 | -0.51 | 4.61 | -0.12 | 4.36 | -0.37 | 3.26 | 4.42 | 1.16 | 4.51 | 1.25 | 5.57 | 2.31 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.28 | 4.65 | 1.37 | 4.78 | 1.5 | 4.71 | 1.43 | 3.83 | 0.55 | 4.5 | 3.89 | -0.61 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 4.47 | -0.03 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.13 | 4.26 | 0.13 | 4.24 | 0.11 | 3.79 | -0.34 | 4.97 | 0.84 | 3.56 | 3.85 | 0.29 | 3.65 | 0.09 | 3.47 | -0.09 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.8 | 4.72 | -0.08 | 5.03 | 0.23 | 5.06 | 0.26 | 5.04 | 0.24 | 6.49 | 4.8 | -1.69 | 4.93 | -1.56 | 4.32 | -2.17 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.63 | 4.16 | 0.53 | 4 | 0.37 | 4.19 | 0.56 | 4.14 | 0.51 | 3.79 | 4.69 | 0.9 | 4.42 | 0.63 | 3.81 | 0.02 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.73 | 4.09 | 0.36 | 4.05 | 0.32 | 4.04 | 0.31 | 4.06 | 0.33 | 2.25 | 3.82 | 1.57 | 4 | 1.75 | 3.33 | 1.08 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.9 | 5.15 | -0.75 | 5.68 | -0.22 | 6.39 | 0.49 | 6.29 | 0.39 | 7.18 | 4.44 | -2.74 | 4.8 | -2.38 | 5.68 | -1.5 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 4.7 | 5.15 | 0.45 | 5.28 | 0.58 | 5.13 | 0.43 | 4.95 | 0.25 | 5.87 | 4.21 | -1.66 | 4.47 | -1.4 | 3.27 | -2.6 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.94 | 4.22 | 0.28 | 4.39 | 0.45 | 3.92 | -0.02 | 4.15 | 0.21 | 4.56 | 3.98 | -0.58 | 4.02 | -0.54 | 3.02 | -1.54 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.62 | 5.16 | -0.46 | 5.33 | -0.29 | 5.46 | -0.16 | 5.69 | 0.07 | 5.79 | 5.81 | 0.02 | 5.84 | 0.05 | 5.21 | -0.58 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.56 | 5.36 | 0.8 | 5.01 | 0.45 | 5.94 | 1.38 | 7.90 | 3.34 | 1.69 | 6.91 | 5.22 | 5.98 | 4.29 | 4.64 | 2.95 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.95 | 4.29 | -0.66 | 4.12 | -0.83 | 4.39 | -0.56 | 5.63 | 0.68 | 4.99 | 4.95 | -0.04 | 4.59 | -0.4 | 4.34 | -0.65 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.38 | 5.12 | 0.74 | 4.96 | 0.58 | 4.76 | 0.38 | 4.83 | 0.45 | 6.52 | 6.14 | -0.38 | 6.21 | -0.31 | 7.84 | 1.32 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.71 | 4.7 | -1.01 | 4.92 | -0.79 | 4.67 | -1.04 | 6.98 | 1.27 | 5.34 | 3.73 | -1.61 | 3.85 | -1.49 | 4.42 | -0.92 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.25 | 2.74 | 0.49 | 3.06 | 0.81 | 2.83 | 0.58 | 2.19 | -0.06 | 3.46 | 2.89 | -0.57 | 2.86 | -0.6 | 4.21 | 0.75 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 3.89 | 5.04 | 1.15 | 4.93 | 1.04 | 4.91 | 1.02 | 5.23 | 1.34 | 3.23 | 4.82 | 1.59 | 4.46 | 1.23 | 4.7 | 1.47 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.44 | 3.84 | 0.4 | 4.08 | 0.64 | 3.97 | 0.53 | 4.89 | 1.45 | 3.13 | 3.57 | 0.44 | 3.51 | 0.38 | 4.7 | 1.57 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 6.05 | 5.01 | -1.04 | 4.96 | -1.09 | 4.84 | -1.21 | 6.55 | 0.50 | 6.46 | 4.97 | -1.49 | 4.85 | -1.61 | 4.38 | -2.08 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.59 | 4.35 | -0.24 | 4.36 | -0.23 | 3.99 | -0.6 | 4.52 | -0.07 | 9.31 | 5.67 | -3.64 | 6.28 | -3.03 | 6.81 | -2.5 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.19 | 4.56 | 0.37 | 4.43 | 0.24 | 3.8 | -0.39 | 3.81 | -0.38 | 3.19 | 4.58 | 1.39 | 4.31 | 1.12 | 3.46 | 0.27 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 5.76 | 5.01 | -0.75 | 5.19 | -0.57 | 5.85 | 0.09 | 6.31 | 0.55 | 4.38 | 4.76 | 0.38 | 5.12 | 0.74 | 5.25 | 0.87 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.95 | 3.65 | 0.7 | 3.33 | 0.38 | 3.17 | 0.22 | 2.83 | -0.12 | 2.61 | 3.74 | 1.13 | 3.4 | 0.79 | 2.98 | 0.37 |
Dallas Keuchel has a .263 season BABIP with minimal popups, but an otherwise ideal contact profile. His 82.8 LOB% is in question. He has a .379 BABIP and 22.2 HR/FB since returning.
Max Scherzer has a tremendous BABIP profile and while his 83.6 LOB% is a career high, he’s been above 77% for four straight years now and a 35% strikeout rate goes a long way towards stranding 80% of runners.
Rich Hill has an 81.3 LOB%, but was at 79.2% last year. It’s high, but not absurd with a nearly 30% strikeout rate. DRA seems to hate him.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.289 | 0.274 | -0.015 | 50.0% | 0.187 | 7.0% | 92.8% | 86.4 | 3.50% | 33.00% | 367 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.285 | ||||||||||
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 0.284 | 0.343 | 0.059 | 47.5% | 0.213 | 14.0% | 91.5% | 88.1 | 6.50% | 32.60% | 184 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.294 | 0.281 | -0.013 | 51.4% | 0.177 | 8.7% | 86.1% | 87 | 5.30% | 34.00% | 412 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 0.320 | 0.373 | 0.053 | 42.6% | 0.204 | 0.0% | 85.5% | 83.5 | 3.60% | 30.90% | 55 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.303 | 0.277 | -0.026 | 46.4% | 0.195 | 12.4% | 80.3% | 86 | 5.80% | 31.20% | 311 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.295 | 0.263 | -0.032 | 64.5% | 0.151 | 3.8% | 87.8% | 84.4 | 6.10% | 31.80% | 264 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.305 | 0.315 | 0.01 | 42.7% | 0.234 | 11.7% | 84.6% | 86.6 | 6.60% | 32.40% | 361 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.271 | -0.008 | 47.3% | 0.177 | 5.5% | 85.4% | 88.2 | 8.80% | 36.60% | 262 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.298 | 0.233 | -0.065 | 41.4% | 0.17 | 13.3% | 88.4% | 85.8 | 6.10% | 31.80% | 459 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.304 | 0.002 | 41.6% | 0.231 | 9.5% | 88.8% | 88.6 | 6.00% | 36.00% | 333 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.246 | -0.053 | 38.3% | 0.155 | 7.0% | 84.3% | 89.5 | 10.20% | 35.90% | 343 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.307 | 0.286 | -0.021 | 46.1% | 0.201 | 7.1% | 84.4% | 85.7 | 5.10% | 29.80% | 295 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.283 | 0.276 | -0.007 | 46.3% | 0.204 | 6.1% | 85.7% | 86.9 | 5.50% | 32.40% | 398 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.284 | -0.004 | 36.9% | 0.162 | 5.8% | 85.1% | 88.5 | 9.50% | 37.80% | 222 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 0.315 | 0.259 | -0.056 | 34.7% | 0.221 | 12.4% | 86.9% | 86.7 | 6.10% | 32.20% | 425 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.290 | 0.281 | -0.009 | 41.1% | 0.164 | 6.8% | 85.1% | 86.5 | 6.60% | 29.60% | 351 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.309 | 0.312 | 0.003 | 33.3% | 0.252 | 12.2% | 90.7% | 88.7 | 7.50% | 35.10% | 439 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 0.293 | 0.337 | 0.044 | 48.4% | 0.264 | 0.0% | 89.2% | 86.7 | 5.30% | 33.00% | 94 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.307 | 0.336 | 0.029 | 61.7% | 0.172 | 9.1% | 90.2% | 87 | 4.90% | 35.10% | 370 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.300 | 0.275 | -0.025 | 41.5% | 0.209 | 12.4% | 90.8% | 85.1 | 5.80% | 30.40% | 312 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.317 | 0.333 | 0.016 | 38.1% | 0.206 | 6.7% | 87.7% | 89.1 | 10.00% | 41.60% | 442 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.293 | 0.237 | -0.056 | 38.1% | 0.157 | 12.6% | 79.1% | 86.2 | 6.60% | 30.70% | 348 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.292 | 0.276 | -0.016 | 49.5% | 0.181 | 11.4% | 84.0% | 85 | 5.00% | 28.00% | 443 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.280 | 0.279 | -0.001 | 39.2% | 0.17 | 10.8% | 81.4% | 83.6 | 6.80% | 28.60% | 220 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.293 | 0.336 | 0.043 | 48.3% | 0.181 | 10.3% | 86.7% | 85.7 | 6.50% | 37.90% | 124 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.317 | 0.025 | 43.9% | 0.199 | 5.5% | 86.0% | 88.9 | 6.20% | 41.00% | 354 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.308 | 0.287 | -0.021 | 49.6% | 0.196 | 13.3% | 90.2% | 85 | 5.10% | 28.60% | 350 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.297 | 0.299 | 0.002 | 43.1% | 0.173 | 6.3% | 90.4% | 86.8 | 8.20% | 36.10% | 208 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.294 | 0.258 | -0.036 | 55.7% | 0.183 | 7.4% | 88.8% | 84.6 | 5.80% | 33.50% | 275 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) generates one of the top ratings you’re going to see. One of the top strikeout pitchers in the league is in one of the top strikeout spots and an extremely negative run environment against a poor offense to boot. It’s not even close. If it even looks like he might have a reasonable ownership rate, players should consider sacrificing multiple positions to roster him.
Value Tier Two
Corey Kluber (2) could be a top tier or top overall guy on most slates, but everyone drops below Scherzer. At nearly the same price point, the matchup is not nearly as juicy.
Dallas Keuchel (3) looked more like himself in his last start. The SwStr% is fine, the strikeouts were up and he’s generating ground balls, though still not as many or as weakly as earlier in the season. The matchup should help him punch out a few more.
Value Tier Three
Zack Godley (5) is not in a particularly great spot. Minnesota is a competent offense in a more positive run environment than most people might realize, but it’s certainly an environmental upgrade from Arizona. He’s been pretty darn successful wherever he’s pitched this season with high end SwStr and ground ball rates along with a tendency towards weak contact, especially on the road. He’s still not even $9K.
Carlos Martinez (4) is one of only five pitchers above a 25% strikeout rate tonight, believe it or not. The underlying numbers are a bit better than the ERA over the last four starts. What he may lose in strikeout rate in Pittsburgh, he stands a good chance of making up for in run prevention tonight with fewer pitches per inning potentially getting him deeper into the game. The issue would most likely be if he loses the plate, as he has occasionally done this year.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Drew Pomeranz can be sort of a swing man, nearly connecting the third and fourth tiers, very closely grouped, well behind the top two tiers. He’s rarely going to generate a start that blows your mind, but has been consistently good with one of the top strikeout rates on the slate. The Yankees haven’t been very good against LHPs, though I’d stop short of calling it a favorable matchup in Fenway.
Rich Hill is a high upside arm with a potential or even likely workload issue in a difficult spot. He still has some value, but they’re legitimate concerns.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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